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By Bob Sturm and Jon Machota Feb 21, 2020
With the scouting combine starting next week, there will be plenty to discuss. To get you ready, Bob Sturm and Jon Machota decided to have a back-and-forth conversation about a variety of Cowboys topics.
Jon Machota: We’ll get into the draft in a little bit, but I wanted to start this off by discussing the massive group of free agents the Cowboys have. I was wondering how you would rank Dallas’ top five free agents in terms of priority. Obviously, they probably won’t be able to keep them all, but let’s rank the top five in terms of importance going forward.
I’d go with Dak Prescott at the top followed by Amari Cooper second, Robert Quinn third, Byron Jones fourth and Maliek Collins fifth. Randall Cobb and Sean Lee would probably be battling for the next two spots.
How would you rank them?
Bob Sturm: I think everyone should agree with both of us on the top two. Prescott should be the No. 1 priority and perhaps 2 and 3, as well. Cooper has demonstrated that he is both an elite talent and young enough that he deserves to be paid among the top 10 wide receivers in the sport, and I would prefer it be in this offense. I might consider a tag — partly because he seems OK with that. From there, the decisions certainly get more complex, and I suppose things come down to how you see the game and the roster.
I agree with you, though, that Quinn would be a better use of money than Jones, partly because I think you can get Quinn on a shorter deal and a cheaper average annual value. Quinn has some shortcomings, for sure, but sacks are such a difficult commodity to acquire that I would be hesitant to walk away from something I am not sure I can replace in the short term. Jones feels like a very large expense of $60 million or so and therefore falls down the line. Collins vs. Cobb for the fifth spot? Well, I am not too committed to either, but I feel like Cobb had a lot to do with the productivity of the offense whereas Collins has been mostly a tease in his run since 2016. If I had some idea of Collins finding a consistent level of form, I could be talked into him, but given their likely scheme changes up front, I just don’t feel great about him. I wonder if Cobb could be locked in for a three-year, $21 million-type deal, freeing Dallas from worrying about WR at all going into 2020. I think defensive tackle extensions can quickly get to $8 million to $10 million AAV, and I just don’t like Collins that much.
Machota: Let’s stay on this topic just a little longer. What about after that top group? In this hypothetical scenario, we’ll say these next six can all be had on somewhat team-friendly, one-year deals: Jason Witten, Sean Lee, Anthony Brown, Jeff Heath, Kerry Hyder and Michael Bennett.
I think I’d go Lee, Witten, Bennett, Brown, Heath and then Hyder. Lee is an easy pick for me because of how well he played late last season and the neck issue that Leighton Vander Esch is dealing with. I’d prefer to have a proven linebacker option like Lee if I can get it. I understand most of the fan base is ready to move on from Witten. But the Cowboys will still need another TE who can contribute beside Blake Jarwin. With all of their defensive needs, I’m not looking to spend in the upper half of the draft on TE. And I don’t know how much better they’re going to do in free agency considering they’re not spending big on the position. As long as Witten is willing to take a reduced role, I think he’s a better option than, for example, Richard Rodgers or another lower-tier free agent TE.
Bennett was productive in his nine games in Dallas with four sacks, 11 tackles for loss and 11 QB hits. I’d be on board for a full season of that production, especially if Robert Quinn doesn’t come back. Brown is intriguing and has made 33 career starts, but in this scenario the deal is only for one more year, so I’m fine with drafting a corner in one of the first two rounds and playing him immediately if Byron Jones leaves in free agency. I could see Brown signing a multi-year, team-friendly deal with Dallas, which would give them three solid corners for next season (Brown, Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis). The Cowboys could still draft another CB early, but keeping Brown gives them some quality insurance.
The safety position needs to be upgraded, but I’d keep Heath for depth and special teams purposes. I’m interested to see what his market is. I think they should keep him if possible. Hyder has some good value because he can play several defensive line positions. If I didn’t already keep Bennett in this scenario, I’d be all about re-signing Hyder.
How would you rank those six?
Sturm: Ok, this is an interesting avenue to navigate for sure.
Witten, Lee, Brown, Heath, Hyder and Bennett.
I think the two that jump out at me would be the two who I think I can realistically play 400-800 snaps next season if I have them back, and those would be Bennett and Brown. Both can probably start for me on the defense and I would be OK, although moving forward I have Jourdan Lewis playing in the slot so Brown would be — as you indicated — cover for Jones leaving so I don’t feel like I have to take a cornerback at No. 17. Bennett is like a slightly higher-ceiling version of Tyrone Crawford who can help me at DT or DE and play in a rotation and hold his own quite well. I don’t know the price, though, so we better proceed with some caution until we know what he is looking for.
I like Heath more than most, but I certainly would only want him back as a third safety, which puts him in that same category of quality reserves with Lee. As you properly point out, so much of Lee’s value back is as a backup, but with Vander Esch in his state of uncertainty, it could mean much more — which is not necessarily great for Lee at this stage of his career.
I get the sense the team is moving on from Witten as a sort of page-turn from the Jason Garrett administration. I am sure Mike McCarthy has great respect for Witten, but the reset button is being hit. I think they will just go in a different direction and it really has little to do with finding a contract number they like.
Finally, I have no issue bringing Hyder back at all, but the money left will not raise many eyebrows. It is all going to be a tight fit for sure.
Machota: Let’s switch gears to the draft. I’m heading to Indy for the combine on Monday. It’s one of my favorite weeks in this business because it’s great for gathering information.
Something I’m particularly interested to find out is how this team views the safety and defensive tackle positions. I see all of these mock drafts have the Cowboys taking a safety at No. 17. I don’t believe that will happen. I don’t think their philosophy on the position has changed all that much. None of these safeties are on Derwin James’ level, and the Cowboys weren’t taking James if he was still there at Pick 19 two years ago.
I think defensive line or cornerback is far more likely to be addressed with that pick. Would you agree with that?
What scenario would you consider an offensive player there? Also, what are you hoping to get out of this year’s combine?
Sturm: First of all, as someone left to merely view the combine on television, I am jealous. Good work, sir.
I’m still at a stage in this draft process where I don’t know that I have a great feel for things. I usually have an idea by now about how I am leaning, but this year is strange. There are so many free-agent questions and so many new decision-makers around here that I am lost without a compass on priorities and even a likely pick at No. 17.
I don’t know that I agree about safety, though, because while I agree that James is not available, I don’t know if I agree that the best play-making defender won’t be available at that spot. I think the new Cowboys approach will be to assemble exceptional defensive talents, and I do think Grant Delpit can absolutely be that guy. I might prefer a DT or a CB there, but I won’t know until I know who we are talking about and where things shake out. That is why everyone should cheer for QBs to all push everyone else down to teams like Dallas. If four or five quarterbacks are selected in the top 16, Dallas will have a really good player available.
Under what scenario would I take a WR at No. 17? Probably if CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy were to fall there. Otherwise, I am not sure I value any of the rest of them highly enough, to be honest. And if I already have signed Cooper and Cobb, well then even that feels like a poor use of resources.
How about you? Are you thinking offense at all at 17 or even 51?
Machota: I’d never completely rule out an entire side of the ball at any pick, but it would have to be really excellent value to draft an offensive player in the first two rounds. If the prospects are close, I’m leaning defense with both picks. There are just so many holes to fill on that side of the ball.
In a perfect scenario, I’d hope to get a defensive back at one pick and a defensive lineman with the other. I understand that the draft doesn’t work that way, though. This particular class appears to be so deep at wide receiver that I’d like to get one at some point. I just don’t necessarily think it needs to happen with the first two picks. I think getting a tight end and an offensive tackle prospect would make sense at some point, too.
I’m fascinated to see how fast the safeties come off the board. While I have noted that the Cowboys haven’t put a high priority on drafting the position early, the rest of the NFL as a whole hasn’t seemed that interested recently. I never thought James would fall to 17 two years ago, and I never thought the Cowboys would’ve had their pick between Nasir Adderley, Taylor Rapp and Juan Thornhill late in the second round last year. The position needs an upgrade. I’m interested to see how they go about doing it.
In your time following the Packers’ drafts while Mike McCarthy was head coach, were there any trends you think could carry over to the Cowboys? I understand that he didn’t have the say he will likely have in Dallas’ draft process, but were there any positions they seemed to value more than others during his time there?
Sturm: I would say the things that stick out to me from recent Green Bay drafts from McCarthy’s tenure are two-fold:
1.) The Packers were always rebuilding their secondary. Very few defensive backs would ever get extensions, and they would continuously go unwrap new ones from the college ranks. If you go back just from this decade, you would find one top-100 pick per year on average and probably another one on Day 3. They were forever chasing their secondary personnel, and while I don’t think it was always a great idea — it looked wasteful — that group really never felt like dedicating premium money to a member of the secondary was smart. So players like Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde and even HaHa Clinton-Dix would end up elsewhere.
2.) They always seemed to lean defense over offense early in drafts. Part of that might be riding Aaron Rodgers hard, but check this out: They made 29 top-100 picks in the last decade. 20 were defensive players, and only nine would assist the offense. Now, of course, we might point out the oddity of doing that much for the defense and never actually being a franchise where they are called a strong defensive team, but they kept pounding that one side of the ball.
Perhaps those two thoughts should be in our minds as we look to McCarthy’s first Cowboys offseason — once he knows he has a QB back from a very strong offensive season.
Machota: The last thing I wanted to touch on is just a ranking of the Cowboys’ biggest areas of need. For this exercise, we’ll say Prescott and Cooper get long-term deals that make them among the highest-paid at their respective positions. And we’ll say Jones, Quinn and Collins sign elsewhere.
In ranking them from biggest need to least of concern, I think I’d go:
Cornerback
Defensive tackle
Safety
Defensive end
Linebacker
Tight end
Wide receiver
Offensive line
Quarterback
Running back
Without Jones, I think the cornerback position needs to be addressed significantly and immediately. Probably as early as Pick 17. If Trysten Hill had showcased a little upside last year, I’d feel differently about DT, but they definitely have to get better there. I feel like safety has been near the top of this list every year I’ve covered the team. Linebacker was at the bottom last year at this time, but their poor play as a group in 2019 and Vander Esch’s neck issue has me a little more concerned about that group. I like Blake Jarwin, but I still think they need another young tight end with some upside in the passing game. In regards to the offensive line, Tyron Smith missing three games each of the last four seasons because of injuries has impacted how strongly I feel about the always-important left tackle spot.
Sturm: I think your list makes some solid sense, but I believe I will lean more this way under your premise:
Defensive tackle
Edge
Safety
Cornerback
Wide receiver
Tight end (this would be fifth if there were good prospects)
Linebacker
Offensive line
Quarterback
Running back
I just don’t think they like what they have at DT at all, and they need to find 2,000 snaps. If Antwaun Woods registers 500 and Trysten Hill plays 300-400, where are the other 1,200 snaps coming from? That should scare all of us.
Without Quinn returning, who is my other edge? Crawford? Randy Gregory? Dorance Armstrong? We had better go edge in Rounds 1 or 2 if that is the plan.
Safety is probably your best chance to find red meat at a reasonable price.
Corner and wide receiver are deep enough to feel like Round 3 should have very good players at each spot. And then on Day 3, you start to go to the best of the bunch.
The second wave of free agency will also be big around here. Week 1 is about sitting out and letting everyone spend their massive amounts of cap room on deals they will hate in two seasons, but Weeks 2 through 4 of free agency is when guys start wanting a job, and suddenly, two years for $8 million looks a lot more reasonable after they don’t see the four years, $40 million they thought might come along.
The point for me in this exercise is that there are absurd amounts of moving parts, and Move 1 or 2 is going to affect Move 3 and 4. This will be a spring time when we have to meet up a few times and reconnoiter with where the wind has blown us. This will happen, and the team is going to need to understand (which they do) that 31 other teams can cause issues here.
With the scouting combine starting next week, there will be plenty to discuss. To get you ready, Bob Sturm and Jon Machota decided to have a back-and-forth conversation about a variety of Cowboys topics.
Jon Machota: We’ll get into the draft in a little bit, but I wanted to start this off by discussing the massive group of free agents the Cowboys have. I was wondering how you would rank Dallas’ top five free agents in terms of priority. Obviously, they probably won’t be able to keep them all, but let’s rank the top five in terms of importance going forward.
I’d go with Dak Prescott at the top followed by Amari Cooper second, Robert Quinn third, Byron Jones fourth and Maliek Collins fifth. Randall Cobb and Sean Lee would probably be battling for the next two spots.
How would you rank them?
Bob Sturm: I think everyone should agree with both of us on the top two. Prescott should be the No. 1 priority and perhaps 2 and 3, as well. Cooper has demonstrated that he is both an elite talent and young enough that he deserves to be paid among the top 10 wide receivers in the sport, and I would prefer it be in this offense. I might consider a tag — partly because he seems OK with that. From there, the decisions certainly get more complex, and I suppose things come down to how you see the game and the roster.
I agree with you, though, that Quinn would be a better use of money than Jones, partly because I think you can get Quinn on a shorter deal and a cheaper average annual value. Quinn has some shortcomings, for sure, but sacks are such a difficult commodity to acquire that I would be hesitant to walk away from something I am not sure I can replace in the short term. Jones feels like a very large expense of $60 million or so and therefore falls down the line. Collins vs. Cobb for the fifth spot? Well, I am not too committed to either, but I feel like Cobb had a lot to do with the productivity of the offense whereas Collins has been mostly a tease in his run since 2016. If I had some idea of Collins finding a consistent level of form, I could be talked into him, but given their likely scheme changes up front, I just don’t feel great about him. I wonder if Cobb could be locked in for a three-year, $21 million-type deal, freeing Dallas from worrying about WR at all going into 2020. I think defensive tackle extensions can quickly get to $8 million to $10 million AAV, and I just don’t like Collins that much.
Machota: Let’s stay on this topic just a little longer. What about after that top group? In this hypothetical scenario, we’ll say these next six can all be had on somewhat team-friendly, one-year deals: Jason Witten, Sean Lee, Anthony Brown, Jeff Heath, Kerry Hyder and Michael Bennett.
I think I’d go Lee, Witten, Bennett, Brown, Heath and then Hyder. Lee is an easy pick for me because of how well he played late last season and the neck issue that Leighton Vander Esch is dealing with. I’d prefer to have a proven linebacker option like Lee if I can get it. I understand most of the fan base is ready to move on from Witten. But the Cowboys will still need another TE who can contribute beside Blake Jarwin. With all of their defensive needs, I’m not looking to spend in the upper half of the draft on TE. And I don’t know how much better they’re going to do in free agency considering they’re not spending big on the position. As long as Witten is willing to take a reduced role, I think he’s a better option than, for example, Richard Rodgers or another lower-tier free agent TE.
Bennett was productive in his nine games in Dallas with four sacks, 11 tackles for loss and 11 QB hits. I’d be on board for a full season of that production, especially if Robert Quinn doesn’t come back. Brown is intriguing and has made 33 career starts, but in this scenario the deal is only for one more year, so I’m fine with drafting a corner in one of the first two rounds and playing him immediately if Byron Jones leaves in free agency. I could see Brown signing a multi-year, team-friendly deal with Dallas, which would give them three solid corners for next season (Brown, Chidobe Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis). The Cowboys could still draft another CB early, but keeping Brown gives them some quality insurance.
The safety position needs to be upgraded, but I’d keep Heath for depth and special teams purposes. I’m interested to see what his market is. I think they should keep him if possible. Hyder has some good value because he can play several defensive line positions. If I didn’t already keep Bennett in this scenario, I’d be all about re-signing Hyder.
How would you rank those six?
Sturm: Ok, this is an interesting avenue to navigate for sure.
Witten, Lee, Brown, Heath, Hyder and Bennett.
I think the two that jump out at me would be the two who I think I can realistically play 400-800 snaps next season if I have them back, and those would be Bennett and Brown. Both can probably start for me on the defense and I would be OK, although moving forward I have Jourdan Lewis playing in the slot so Brown would be — as you indicated — cover for Jones leaving so I don’t feel like I have to take a cornerback at No. 17. Bennett is like a slightly higher-ceiling version of Tyrone Crawford who can help me at DT or DE and play in a rotation and hold his own quite well. I don’t know the price, though, so we better proceed with some caution until we know what he is looking for.
I like Heath more than most, but I certainly would only want him back as a third safety, which puts him in that same category of quality reserves with Lee. As you properly point out, so much of Lee’s value back is as a backup, but with Vander Esch in his state of uncertainty, it could mean much more — which is not necessarily great for Lee at this stage of his career.
I get the sense the team is moving on from Witten as a sort of page-turn from the Jason Garrett administration. I am sure Mike McCarthy has great respect for Witten, but the reset button is being hit. I think they will just go in a different direction and it really has little to do with finding a contract number they like.
Finally, I have no issue bringing Hyder back at all, but the money left will not raise many eyebrows. It is all going to be a tight fit for sure.
Machota: Let’s switch gears to the draft. I’m heading to Indy for the combine on Monday. It’s one of my favorite weeks in this business because it’s great for gathering information.
Something I’m particularly interested to find out is how this team views the safety and defensive tackle positions. I see all of these mock drafts have the Cowboys taking a safety at No. 17. I don’t believe that will happen. I don’t think their philosophy on the position has changed all that much. None of these safeties are on Derwin James’ level, and the Cowboys weren’t taking James if he was still there at Pick 19 two years ago.
I think defensive line or cornerback is far more likely to be addressed with that pick. Would you agree with that?
What scenario would you consider an offensive player there? Also, what are you hoping to get out of this year’s combine?
Sturm: First of all, as someone left to merely view the combine on television, I am jealous. Good work, sir.
I’m still at a stage in this draft process where I don’t know that I have a great feel for things. I usually have an idea by now about how I am leaning, but this year is strange. There are so many free-agent questions and so many new decision-makers around here that I am lost without a compass on priorities and even a likely pick at No. 17.
I don’t know that I agree about safety, though, because while I agree that James is not available, I don’t know if I agree that the best play-making defender won’t be available at that spot. I think the new Cowboys approach will be to assemble exceptional defensive talents, and I do think Grant Delpit can absolutely be that guy. I might prefer a DT or a CB there, but I won’t know until I know who we are talking about and where things shake out. That is why everyone should cheer for QBs to all push everyone else down to teams like Dallas. If four or five quarterbacks are selected in the top 16, Dallas will have a really good player available.
Under what scenario would I take a WR at No. 17? Probably if CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy were to fall there. Otherwise, I am not sure I value any of the rest of them highly enough, to be honest. And if I already have signed Cooper and Cobb, well then even that feels like a poor use of resources.
How about you? Are you thinking offense at all at 17 or even 51?
Machota: I’d never completely rule out an entire side of the ball at any pick, but it would have to be really excellent value to draft an offensive player in the first two rounds. If the prospects are close, I’m leaning defense with both picks. There are just so many holes to fill on that side of the ball.
In a perfect scenario, I’d hope to get a defensive back at one pick and a defensive lineman with the other. I understand that the draft doesn’t work that way, though. This particular class appears to be so deep at wide receiver that I’d like to get one at some point. I just don’t necessarily think it needs to happen with the first two picks. I think getting a tight end and an offensive tackle prospect would make sense at some point, too.
I’m fascinated to see how fast the safeties come off the board. While I have noted that the Cowboys haven’t put a high priority on drafting the position early, the rest of the NFL as a whole hasn’t seemed that interested recently. I never thought James would fall to 17 two years ago, and I never thought the Cowboys would’ve had their pick between Nasir Adderley, Taylor Rapp and Juan Thornhill late in the second round last year. The position needs an upgrade. I’m interested to see how they go about doing it.
In your time following the Packers’ drafts while Mike McCarthy was head coach, were there any trends you think could carry over to the Cowboys? I understand that he didn’t have the say he will likely have in Dallas’ draft process, but were there any positions they seemed to value more than others during his time there?
Sturm: I would say the things that stick out to me from recent Green Bay drafts from McCarthy’s tenure are two-fold:
1.) The Packers were always rebuilding their secondary. Very few defensive backs would ever get extensions, and they would continuously go unwrap new ones from the college ranks. If you go back just from this decade, you would find one top-100 pick per year on average and probably another one on Day 3. They were forever chasing their secondary personnel, and while I don’t think it was always a great idea — it looked wasteful — that group really never felt like dedicating premium money to a member of the secondary was smart. So players like Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde and even HaHa Clinton-Dix would end up elsewhere.
2.) They always seemed to lean defense over offense early in drafts. Part of that might be riding Aaron Rodgers hard, but check this out: They made 29 top-100 picks in the last decade. 20 were defensive players, and only nine would assist the offense. Now, of course, we might point out the oddity of doing that much for the defense and never actually being a franchise where they are called a strong defensive team, but they kept pounding that one side of the ball.
Perhaps those two thoughts should be in our minds as we look to McCarthy’s first Cowboys offseason — once he knows he has a QB back from a very strong offensive season.
Machota: The last thing I wanted to touch on is just a ranking of the Cowboys’ biggest areas of need. For this exercise, we’ll say Prescott and Cooper get long-term deals that make them among the highest-paid at their respective positions. And we’ll say Jones, Quinn and Collins sign elsewhere.
In ranking them from biggest need to least of concern, I think I’d go:
Cornerback
Defensive tackle
Safety
Defensive end
Linebacker
Tight end
Wide receiver
Offensive line
Quarterback
Running back
Without Jones, I think the cornerback position needs to be addressed significantly and immediately. Probably as early as Pick 17. If Trysten Hill had showcased a little upside last year, I’d feel differently about DT, but they definitely have to get better there. I feel like safety has been near the top of this list every year I’ve covered the team. Linebacker was at the bottom last year at this time, but their poor play as a group in 2019 and Vander Esch’s neck issue has me a little more concerned about that group. I like Blake Jarwin, but I still think they need another young tight end with some upside in the passing game. In regards to the offensive line, Tyron Smith missing three games each of the last four seasons because of injuries has impacted how strongly I feel about the always-important left tackle spot.
Sturm: I think your list makes some solid sense, but I believe I will lean more this way under your premise:
Defensive tackle
Edge
Safety
Cornerback
Wide receiver
Tight end (this would be fifth if there were good prospects)
Linebacker
Offensive line
Quarterback
Running back
I just don’t think they like what they have at DT at all, and they need to find 2,000 snaps. If Antwaun Woods registers 500 and Trysten Hill plays 300-400, where are the other 1,200 snaps coming from? That should scare all of us.
Without Quinn returning, who is my other edge? Crawford? Randy Gregory? Dorance Armstrong? We had better go edge in Rounds 1 or 2 if that is the plan.
Safety is probably your best chance to find red meat at a reasonable price.
Corner and wide receiver are deep enough to feel like Round 3 should have very good players at each spot. And then on Day 3, you start to go to the best of the bunch.
The second wave of free agency will also be big around here. Week 1 is about sitting out and letting everyone spend their massive amounts of cap room on deals they will hate in two seasons, but Weeks 2 through 4 of free agency is when guys start wanting a job, and suddenly, two years for $8 million looks a lot more reasonable after they don’t see the four years, $40 million they thought might come along.
The point for me in this exercise is that there are absurd amounts of moving parts, and Move 1 or 2 is going to affect Move 3 and 4. This will be a spring time when we have to meet up a few times and reconnoiter with where the wind has blown us. This will happen, and the team is going to need to understand (which they do) that 31 other teams can cause issues here.