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By Bob Sturm 2h ago
MIAMI, Fl. — There is no question about the main event of the week. On Sunday, we will finally allow the 49ers and Chiefs to battle, determining who reaps the spoils of landing on top of the football mountain for the 2019 season. We will crown a new champion, and the winning team will signal a changing of the guard in the NFL. Of course, the guard changes back or keeps changing without notice, which is why grabbing those trophies when you get the chance is vital.
Also on tap in Miami is another round of Hall of Fame inductees, when the 15 finalists will be whittled down to five. By now, you know that we already have quite a list of those who will go into Canton this summer. This is the special NFL 100 Centennial extended class, which includes 10 players, three contributors and two Hall of Fame coaches: Bill Cowher and Jimmy Johnson.
Generally, we are quick to hear two reactions from the masses when legends are inducted: “So and so is a no-brainer and we don’t even need to talk about it” and then the other side of that coin, which turns into a wild debate amongst those of us who don’t have any votes at all but love this game. Heck, the last week seemed to turn into one large debate about the merits of Eli Manning. It’s important to always start the HoF debate the moment a guy tells us he will no longer be an active participant in the league.
In both Johnson and Cowher’s cases, I believe they fall in the second category of “worthy of debate.” Because I certainly enjoy this pastime, let’s do it. I would put both in the Hall of Fame, but a good writer never gives away the conclusion before he builds a case, so let’s get started.
There are 23 coaches currently in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and I think it is probably best to admit we don’t know too much about the league before the modern era. Depending on who you ask, it either begins at Super Bowl 1 (1966), 1960 (the expansion era and the dawn of the AFL) or the AFL-NFL merger itself (1970). So, let’s call it 1960 or so and be done with it.
Not to suggest that those who came before weren’t men of great merit themselves, but comparing the 2020 NFL to the World War II era is next to impossible. Let’s just assume that those men were covered by media in their time and are quite deserving, and leave it at that. So, with all due respect, let’s leave Ray Flaherty (1936-49), Greasy Neale (1941-1950), Steve Owen (1930-1953), Guy Chamberlin (1922-1927), Jimmy Conzelman (1921-1948) and even the names we certainly know like Curly Lambeau (1921-1953), Paul Brown (1946-1975) and George Halas (1920-1967) out of the discussion in the interest of sanity.
From there, I would also suggest that I am pretty uncomfortable comparing three more coaches that did most – if not all – of their significant coaching before the merger and never came close to 1980, when I would say my consciousness began. That would be Sid Gillman (1955-1977), Weeb Ewbank (1954-1973) and Vince Lombardi himself, (1954-1969). Again, certainly not claiming to debate their level of worthiness, just noting that I am not sure we can use them as standards for induction with so many things – including the length of the seasons and the playoff formats – being so widely altered to present day.
That leaves 12 coaches who mostly led their teams during the modern era. In their order of induction, they are:
Tom Landry, 1990
Chuck Noll, 1993
Bill Walsh, 1993
Bud Grant, 1994
Joe Gibbs, 1996
Don Shula, 1997
Marv Levy, 2001
George Allen, 2002
Hank Stram, 2003
John Madden, 2006
Bill Parcells, 2013
Tony Dungy, 2016
This is the current bar. Among them, you can see 3223 games coached, nearly 2000 of which were wins (1979-1202-42) — good for a 61 percent win rate. Add on another 246 playoff games with 139 wins at a 57 percent rate. As a group, they averaged a pretty impressive 1.6 world titles each. Noll won four; Walsh and Gibbs three; Landry, Shula, Stram, and Parcells two; Madden and Dungy one; and Grant, Levy and Allen each achieved immortality without a title.
| Player | Indct | From | To | G | W | L | T | G plyf | W plyf | L plyf | Chmp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Landry | 1990 | 1954 | 1988 | 418 | 250 | 162 | 6 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 2 |
| Chuck Noll | 1993 | 1969 | 1991 | 342 | 193 | 148 | 1 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 4 |
| Bill Walsh | 1993 | 1976 | 1988 | 152 | 92 | 59 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Bud Grant | 1994 | 1967 | 1985 | 259 | 158 | 96 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 0 |
| Joe Gibbs | 1996 | 1978 | 2007 | 248 | 154 | 94 | 0 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 3 |
| Don Shula | 1997 | 1961 | 1995 | 490 | 328 | 156 | 6 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 2 |
| Marv Levy | 2001 | 1978 | 1997 | 255 | 143 | 112 | 0 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 0 |
| George Allen | 2002 | 1964 | 1977 | 168 | 116 | 47 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Hank Stram | 2003 | 1960 | 1977 | 238 | 131 | 97 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| John Madden | 2006 | 1969 | 1978 | 142 | 103 | 32 | 7 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 1 |
| Bill Parcells | 2013 | 1981 | 2006 | 303 | 172 | 130 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 2 |
| Tony Dungy | 2016 | 1984 | 2008 | 208 | 139 | 69 | 0 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 1 |
Incidentally, the average win-loss record in the regular season for the Hall of Fame dozen was 164-100 with an average playoff win-loss of 12-8. Obviously, some are better, and some are worse.
So this is the bar, and while it is not necessarily the best bar, it is what it is. This very defined and objective way of looking at coaches loses all context on the what, where, who and why of the story, though. It has no bearing on the talent that was inherited, the competition that was faced, the reliance on one particularly great quarterback or the fact that a given team running into a slightly greater roadblock in its path all falls under some level of complete random luck or fortune.
Now, on to the new inductees who are already going to be honored. That isn’t the question, though. The question – posed by many of you – is would I have voted them in? I would. Let’s go into the why.
Bill Cowher, 2020: Cowher coached 15 years for the Pittsburgh Steelers and he did so as the replacement for Noll. Think about that and being the next guy. Then, instead of Hall of Famers everywhere — including the all-important quarterback position — he figured out how to win with enough different QB situations to make your head spin. Tell me if this is what a HoF coach would do: He won double-digit games and a division crown with five different QBs as his starter in 15 seasons, as Neil O’Donnell, Kordell Stewart, Mike Tomczak, Tommy Maddox and Ben Roethlisberger were all able to help engineer a season with at least 10 wins and a divisional crown. That, to me, is fantastic. He coached 240 games for the Steelers, averaged 10 wins a season the entire stretch and never had a single QB start more than 80 games for him (33 percent; Kordell Stewart). Find me another coach who can put the wins together without any memorable quarterback besides a very young and inexperienced Ben Roethlisberger. Despite that limitation, his team built a stunning defense, featured great, physical play on both sides of the ball, went to two Super Bowls, won Super Bowl 40 and won 12 playoff games total. I admit that if Cowher is in, it perhaps opens the doors for others, but I think that is a good thing and he has my fictional vote. I cannot imagine winning 62 percent of your games over 15 seasons in this league without ever having a great, stable quarterback for much of it at all. Cowher pulled it off.
Jimmy Johnson, 2020: Only one other team in the history of the NFL has won three Super Bowls in four seasons besides the Dallas Cowboys of the 1990s: the Patriots of 2001-2004. Assuming we allow Jimmy Johnson to take some credit for the 1995 Super Bowl season and the 1994 team that fell short — both of which occurred immediately following the divorce with Jerry Jones — then you would have a completely different viewpoint of Johnson, and he would have been inducted 10 years ago. Instead, he only gets credit for the five years he was actually there, which makes him a very difficult case to fully rule upon. However, if you take a deeper dive and understand the context of the divorce, he is also very obvious choice given that he was the full architect of the entire dynasty and a coach who took over a team that was gutted and incapable of competing in 1989, only to instantly drive them to the top of the league for what appears to have been capable of even more. He had an incredibly unique coaching career in which he had four head coaching gigs in college and the pros, and despite never staying more than five years at any of them was a champion and is now a Hall of Famer at both levels. Surely, a bit more success with the Miami Dolphins would have made this an easier call, but as it stands, he had a 80-64 (55 percent) career mark, which quickly jumps to 79-49 (62 percent) if you simply deduct the 1989 rebuild year. For him to have a nine-year career and finish with the final eight seasons at 30 games over .500 is pretty special. Then, to add nine playoff wins – equal to Madden and Dungy, more than Stram or Allen and just one fewer playoff win than Bill Walsh and Bud Grant — in such a short career also deserves mention. But, yes, mostly because he won multiple Super Bowls and was the biggest reason they won three in four years and were the last dynasty that hasn’t been from New England to this day.
| Player | Indct | From | To | G | W | L | T | G plyf | W plyf | L plyf | Chmp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Cowher | 2020 | 1992 | 2006 | 240 | 149 | 90 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 1 |
| Jimmy Johnson | 2020 | 1989 | 1999 | 144 | 80 | 64 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
What is the mark that demonstrates a Hall of Fame coach? Is it total career wins? No, probably not. Is it winning percentage in the regular season? Probably not that, either. Playoff wins? Maybe, but it generally needs championship game wins and likely a Super Bowl or two.
Besides the great Belichick, how many coaches can we assume are going in soon?
I think two Super Bowls come pretty close to satisfying my criteria. But that means Tom Flores, George Seifert, Mike Shanahan, and Tom Coughlin should all be in, too. I think Flores is a really tough call, but the other three are probably a matter of time, to be honest.
I think 10 career playoff wins probably gets a coach in, too. That puts Andy Reid and Mike Holmgren in the mix along with Dan Reeves, Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy, John Harbaugh and, of course, Coughlin and Seifert. That is probably way too many, especially without any future expanded classes anytime soon. Also, they all have between zero and one Lombardi Trophy. They might need one more.
Where are Mike Tomlin and Sean Payton in this? They have as good a case as almost anyone on a combination of regular-season and postseason. Perhaps one more postseason run would cement their legacy.
My overall point is this: Yes, it should be really hard to make the Hall of Fame, but I think I have just discovered that there are probably between five and 10 more coaches who have either put up the deserving numbers or are really darn close.
I mean, you tell me how many of these guys probably can make a case pretty soon:
| Coach | Yrs | Yr-Yr | G | W | L | T | W-L%▼ | G plyf | W plyf | L plyf | W-L% | Chmp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Belichick | 25 | 1991-2019 | 400 | 273 | 127 | 0 | 0.683 | 43 | 31 | 12 | 0.721 | 6 |
| Andy Reid | 21 | 1999-2019 | 336 | 207 | 128 | 1 | 0.618 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 0.481 | 0 |
| Mike Holmgren | 17 | 1992-2008 | 272 | 161 | 111 | 0 | 0.592 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 0.542 | 1 |
| Tom Coughlin | 20 | 1995-2015 | 320 | 170 | 150 | 0 | 0.531 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 0.632 | 2 |
| Dan Reeves | 23 | 1981-2003 | 357 | 190 | 165 | 2 | 0.535 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 0.55 | 0 |
| Pete Carroll | 14 | 1994-2019 | 224 | 133 | 90 | 1 | 0.596 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 0.55 | 1 |
| Mike McCarthy | 13 | 2006-2018 | 204 | 125 | 77 | 2 | 0.618 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 0.556 | 1 |
| John Harbaugh | 12 | 2008-2019 | 192 | 118 | 74 | 0 | 0.615 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 0.588 | 1 |
| George Seifert | 11 | 1989-2001 | 176 | 114 | 62 | 0 | 0.648 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 0.667 | 2 |
| Mike Shanahan | 20 | 1988-2013 | 308 | 170 | 138 | 0 | 0.552 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0.571 | 2 |
| Mike Tomlin | 13 | 2007-2019 | 208 | 133 | 74 | 1 | 0.642 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 1 |
| John Fox | 16 | 2002-2017 | 256 | 133 | 123 | 0 | 0.52 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 0 |
| Sean Payton | 13 | 2006-2019 | 208 | 131 | 77 | 0 | 0.63 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.533 | 1 |
| Tom Flores | 12 | 1979-1994 | 184 | 97 | 87 | 0 | 0.527 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.727 | 2 |
There are some really impressive careers to consider. They all have different stories and circumstances, but plenty deserve the honor.
Regardless, congratulations to both Cowher and Johnson. People will say that maybe their TV careers didn’t hurt their cases, either. There is some reason to believe that matters. But I do believe it was overdue for both.
Feel free to disagree below, if you like. But they are both in for me. Now, the voters work to figure out who is next.
