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By Bob Sturm 3h ago
On Monday, I spent quite a few paragraphs analyzing the Cowboys’ biggest failing in 2018: their issues inside the red zone and then inside the 10-yard line. It’s the single biggest issue they need to address in 2019.
Too many drives died in that red zone, and I think this is clearly why the Cowboys moved on from Scott Linehan in pursuit of someone who might have a better idea of how to pull them out of that rut. They finished the 2018 season 32nd in the NFL in 1st-and-goal touchdown efficiency (scoring a touchdown on a drive where you earn a first down inside the opponent’s 10 yard line – not to be confused with scoring on 1st and goal) and 29th in red-zone touchdown efficiency.
Considering the substantial investment Dallas has made in its offense and the amount of assembled talent, they should never come close to ranking down by the Jets, Cardinals, Jaguars and 49ers. If they can win their division and a playoff game with a team this wasteful on offense, it would seem like the sky might be the limit if they consistently add seven points from up close at a league-average rate.
This is the companion piece to that Monday analysis. I hope, if you haven’t read that, you will go back and do so before proceeding here. This is the film piece that will hopefully demonstrate some of the principal points.
The first thing I want to do is offer some perspective about how the league sees the red zone. 2018 was a banner year for NFL red-zone offense, as the league cracked the 59% mark for the first time on record. That persistent upswing in efficiency is certainly not a fluke. The league just understands how to attack the confines of space better than ever.
THE CHIEFS’ RED ZONE CLINIC
Kansas City is at the cutting edge on how to do this. In a year where they utilized Patrick Mahomes, essentially a first-year quarterback, I thought we could use them for a quick example of what we are looking at when we complain about Dallas’ lack of creativity. Yes, Kansas City has weapons that they hand-picked for their offense, but I think we have seen enough of Andy Reid to know he understands offense as well as anyone.
I wanted to show you five plays I pulled from the Chiefs’ September and October contests. By the end of the year, they may have been even more complex, but I looked at games against playoff-caliber defenses — the Chargers, Steelers and Patriots — with every one of them being away from home. These are wise men on the other side of the ball who end up looking rather perplexed by Kansas City’s schemes immediately after training camp broke.
This is from Week 1. Pre-snap motion is hugely important. So is misdirection. The Chargers literally had no idea what was happening. Watch 54-Melvin Ingram, who is one of the best linebackers in the league. And see how scheme makes him look silly.
Surely, though, the Chargers wouldn’t fall for it again, right?
Same game. Same half. Rinse, repeat.
These guys are walking in untouched against a very good NFL defense on the exact same play.
Let’s see it through the air against a team that plays plenty of zone defense in the red zone. Here’s a game against Pittsburgh in Week 3. Pre-snap motion, speed and attacking the same areas with multiple threats all cause confusion and easy scores from the back of the red zone.
Mighty Belichick would have an answer, right? The Patriots run man coverage all day in the red zone. So Reid answers by making everyone fight through traffic to stay with their man, with man-beater concepts all day. Look at all of the horizontal rubs and picks in one play. Mahomes had a great year, but I have just shown you four different touchdown passes which all looked reasonably simple, right?
Here is one more. Same game. Same defense. Here comes more motion and some route combinations that cause traffic issues. Mahomes sees multiple open targets and picks the one he likes the most. Nobody is trying to say Kansas City doesn’t have a good quarterback. I am trying to demonstrate that coaching and scheme matter more than anything else in the red zone. Especially on the road, and especially against good defenses.
In the interest of fairness, I went through the Cowboys’ 2018 season and looked for creativity from Linehan and his staff, which obviously included new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Certainly, they were looking for answers. Here were a few examples of what they came up with.
Week 3 against the Seahawks:
It appears they watched the Chiefs in Week 1 and loved their plan. There is one big difference here that jumps out. Tavon Austin is actually joined with the offensive line action. Kansas City had its entire offensive line going in the opposite direction to sell the deception. If you are a linebacker, there is a good chance you are reading a guard and he is taking you with Austin. In other words, the Cowboys executed a much less risky version of the Chiefs’ plan. If you want to confuse opponents, you must do the full “sell job,” whereas the Cowboys tried the modified, half-in version. It still worked, though, leaving us to wonder what having Tavon Austin for more than six healthy games would have been like. But this is definitely not what we normally saw.
Then we had two other plays which looked like easy touchdowns based on scheme. This one in Atlanta was a nice, easy out route to Beasley that hit him right in the hands for a frustrating dropped touchdown.
Then this one made everyone lose their minds:
Every story has many versions. I am positive Scott Linehan would point to these three plays as great examples of “creativity” and insist players let him down. This play concept looks like something Andy Reid would offer. It has the Colts all fouled up and left two players wide open in Jamize Olawale and Blake Jarwin (in the back of the end zone). It has Prescott delivering a less-than-perfect pass, but this isn’t Little League; that ball must be caught by Olawale. It should have led to an easy touchdown.
Perhaps on two of the three best schemed-up red-zone plays in 2018, receivers just dropped touchdowns. Is that the margin for firing an offensive coordinator when you win the division and a playoff game?
As you’re about to see, the situation is far more complex than that. [HR][/HR]
There was a very easily identifiable stretch within the season in which the Cowboys were starting to roll, but their red-zone failings were hugely prominent. That stretch, featuring the Saints, Eagles, and Colts games in Weeks 13-15, likely precipitated the decision to part ways with Linehan. There were some extenuating circumstances, the most obvious among them being the offensive line’s health. Here is how that unit lined up for these three games:
| Vs Saints | Fleming | Su’a-Filo | Looney | Martin | Collins |
| Vs Eagles | Smith | Su’a-Filo | Looney | Martin/Williams | Collins |
| Vs Colts | Smith | Su’a-Filo/Redmond | Looney | Williams | Collins |
Let’s look at the details:
WEEK 13 – NEW ORLEANS
The Cowboys’ protection is poor and nobody is open. You’ll see what appears to be some level of combination routes, but the Saints double-team Cooper from the slot and then switch all of the obvious rub concepts and easily defend everyone. Then they work over the Cowboys interior, and Prescott has no chance to escape. This sack was surely blamed on Prescott, but he is trying to give his guys a chance to get open on third-and-goal. Zeke is a slight option but not truly open.
This got the Cowboys their only touchdown of the evening. Prescott threw a screen to Zeke, who was barely open in the smallest of windows, and Elliott found a way through for the touchdown. This was very well-timed and well done.
Here is another third down in the red zone which wound up being a sack. If any play encapsulated the frustration of the Linehan era, it would involve four receivers all working in a straight vertical plane with no confusion for the secondary, nor stress. This play qualifies. With nothing readily available, protection breaks down and impedes Prescott from getting a pass off. We blame the quarterback around here, but what would you want him to do in this situation? By the time Prescott reaches his second read, he is on the ground due to poor protection.
This is yet another red-zone sack on third-and-goal. I want to say this about red-zone sacks: They aren’t the world’s biggest deal. Which isn’t to say they’re not a morale-buster to the home crowd. They’re just not as damaging as most believe. They almost never knock you out of field-goal range, I want my quarterback to give his targets a chance to get open on third down. Don’t throw the ball to the opponent, but remember that a sack here does not carry the weight of one at the 30-yard line. Anyway, we see the Saints absolutely wanted to double Amari Cooper again in the red zone when he is in the slot. While everyone wants Prescott to get the ball out, I’d argue the scheme and his offensive line did him no favors here. The left guard and right tackle have already lost by the time Gallup is open up top. As you might recall, this could have cost Dallas the game.
WEEK 14 – PHILADELPHIA
I have to give the Eagles credit: No team seemed more capable of killing the Cowboys’ running game in the red zone than Philadelphia. This makes sense, of course, because you can argue that the Eagles put their defense together to deal with Dallas and Elliott. Here is the Cowboys’ favorite red-zone concept (worth evaluating, considering how poor they are there). Michael Bennett plays it perfectly. He studied it well and was in a position to take down either Prescott or Elliott. Full credit to the Eagles here.
Here is another staple. Joe Looney gave us everything he had in 2018, but he just isn’t Travis Frederick. This is a tough ask, but you have to get that block on no. 90, Treyvon Hester. Once Zeke dodges his own center, Fletcher Cox was there to clean the play up. To make matters worse, there was a holding penalty on Looney.
Two snaps later, it is 3rd-and-13 from the 18-yard line. Prescott tries to get to the sticks on his own after Linehan calls the same four isolated vertical routes he always does, and Prescott gets close. Trouble is, Tyron Smith took a penalty here, and it is all coming back. Another drive is dead.
Later, the Cowboys had another 1st-and-goal and ran an RPO with the front-side slant to Beasley. I like this much more on the back side, but it has a chance. But Beasley is so small that the window is tiny, and it looks like Beasley is pulled from behind on the pass (no flag). The pass goes off of his hands, and Dallas misses another red-zone chance.
On 3rd-and-goal, this might be a QB counter. Prescott appears to have a little daylight, and I am not sure if he tripped or thought Collins might get further outside. Either way, the play ends at the line of scrimmage, and the field goal team runs on while the stadium complains.
On this play, the Cowboys use 21 Personnel in overtime on 3rd-and-1. Dallas wants to run it down the Eagles’ throats in the red zone, and the Eagles weren’t having it. We’ve seen plenty of La’el Collins losing on these run blocks, and this one wasn’t very good, either. How many times were Zeke and the offensive line expected to deliver in the red zone, and how many times were they able to do so down the stretch?
Here is the second-to-last play in that game. The Cowboys try to run the zone read at Michael Bennett again. Please stop doing that. He has destroyed everyone he has ever seen from Dallas. And, of course, he is now in New England and Dallas get to play him again this year.
The final play of the game comes on 3rd-and-7. The Eagles blitz everyone in Cover 0, and Cooper beats his man (barely) on the slant. Prescott gets the ball out as fast as he can and the fortuitous deflection comes correct. Touchdown. Game over.
WEEK 15 – INDIANAPOLIS
Here is that Olawale play one more time. The Cowboys weren’t in the red zone much in this game, but the slump continued on consecutive plays. This one has to be converted, obviously.
Let’s return to the principal issue of 4th-and-goal in Indy. Looney loses quickly — I assume — as the man on his nose is in on Zeke almost untouched, and the entire play and drive dissolve into nothing. The Cowboys did not have a very good offensive line in 2018, which I elaborated on in Monday’s piece, but hopefully all of these destroyed running plays on video pound that point home.
The Cowboys were shut out in Indianapolis, and they were 2-for-11 in the red zone in three weeks’ time. This was the encapsulation of ‘utter disaster.’ [HR][/HR]
Let’s return to the present, and the Cowboys coaching staff. They are trying to figure out how to build a new red zone package. They need to sort through their biggest Achilles’ Heels: the-red zone offense and the first-and-goal offense. Yards are yards to a certain extent, but each yard gets tougher down by the goal line.
Which is why we need this reminder from Monday’s piece:
The easiest answer is that, although he may not be the best passer, we certainly have reason to believe that Prescott’s legs are probably the best weapon this team does have inside the 20. For whatever reason, there were fewer plays called in which he played to that strength. Here’s another ridiculous statistic.
The average red-zone run from 2016-2018 yielded just 2.64 yards per carry. Yet Prescott averaged a ridiculous 4.46 yards per carry and scored 18 touchdowns. There is no other player in the NFL with anything close to over four yards per carry in the red zone and over 10 touchdowns. Not even close (after further review, Alex Collins of Baltimore was, in fact, close with 4.25 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns. He still trails Prescott in both categories, but I missed him somehow on Monday. My bad).
Dak Prescott isn’t just good at running in the red zone. He is the best in the NFL. But they didn’t utilize him enough to get anywhere in 2018. Here are the rankings to prove it:
Top 20 in the red zone, 2016-18, sorted by rushing touchdowns:
| 1 | Todd Gurley | 154 | 416 | 2.7 | 34 |
| 2 | Melvin Gordon | 120 | 312 | 2.6 | 24 |
| 3t | LeGarrette Blount | 125 | 259 | 2.07 | 23 |
| 3t | Jordan Howard | 95 | 345 | 3.63 | 23 |
| 3t | Ezekiel Elliott | 113 | 344 | 3.04 | 23 |
| 6 | Latavius Murray | 103 | 265 | 2.57 | 22 |
| 7 | David Johnson | 84 | 198 | 2.36 | 21 |
| 8 | Mark Ingram | 97 | 303 | 3.12 | 20 |
| 9 | Carlos Hyde | 91 | 199 | 2.19 | 19 |
| 10t | Derrick Henry | 89 | 334 | 3.75 | 18 |
| 10t | Dak Prescott | 39 | 174 | 4.46 | 18 |
| 10t | Alvin Kamara | 72 | 257 | 3.57 | 18 |
| 13t | LeSean McCoy | 94 | 244 | 2.6 | 16 |
| 13t | Le’Veon Bell | 90 | 281 | 3.12 | 16 |
| 15t | Devonta Freeman | 86 | 197 | 2.29 | 15 |
| 15t | Cam Newton | 58 | 157 | 2.71 | 15 |
| 17t | Jonathan Stewart | 70 | 141 | 2.01 | 14 |
| 17t | Alex Collins | 51 | 217 | 4.25 | 14 |
| 19 | DeMarco Murray | 60 | 135 | 2.25 | 13 |
| 20t | Lamar Miller | 81 | 177 | 2.19 | 12 |
Now, this isn’t to say Ezekiel Elliott is awful at running the ball. He is just wearing a massive target on his chest. He might be the diversion who creates space for Prescott. But if Prescott has never had a season under four yards per carry in the red zone and Elliott has never had a season over 3.73 yards a carry in the red zone, might the Cowboys use No. 4 a little more down by the goal line? Isn’t he every bit the weapon Cam Newton is, if not better?
Prescott vs Elliott in the red zone, 2016-18
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2016 | 41 | 153 | 3.73 | 12 | 4 |
| Dak Prescott | 2016 | 9 | 36 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2017 | 35 | 95 | 2.71 | 6 | 3 |
| Dak Prescott | 2017 | 12 | 75 | 6.25 | 6 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2018 | 46 | 112 | 2.43 | 7 | 8 |
| Dak Prescott | 2018 | 22 | 90 | 4.09 | 8 | 1 |
In the name of sanity and perhaps even to add a layer of context to the discussion of Dak’s potential contract, allow me to show you one more group of plays from my film study over this past week. It is called Dak Prescott is very good at running the ball, and the Cowboys should let him do so more often. Further, if they are scared to lean on that skill because of his position and paycheck, then they don’t understand why he is valuable.
These are in chronological order, mostly in the red zone, from Week 10 through the end of the season:
Zeke is the diversion, 44-Beasley chases him from the backside, Prescott runs over the safety for a touchdown.
Here is a pass play where the left tackle (Fleming) and left guard (Su’a-Filo) are beaten, and Prescott makes it up on his own. As I said on Twitter, this got almost no discussion when it happened because everyone is so sure everything is Prescott’s fault. By comparison, somebody still brings up Tony Romo escaping JJ Watt about once a week on social media. That happened in 2014. This play seems pretty noteworthy, too.
This play demonstrates another case where Prescott moves the chains with his feet. It also demonstrates how empty-backfield formations spread out a defense and leave opportunities in the middle of the field.
This play was certainly one of the most important in that win against the Saints. In the fourth quarter, on third-and-long, Prescott wouldn’t be denied. New Orleans blitzes the house and the offensive line gets overwhelmed.
Here is another time Zeke gathers a huge crowd, which allows Dak to get outside the margins. He picks up a few blocks, which is all he needs to get in. Fine use of space here by the design.
This Seahawks game was simply a Dak running masterpiece. Here is what we are looking for: the Dak Prescott lead. There is no Zeke fake here at all. This is a simple QB sweep like you see on Friday nights.
This is the famous 3rd-and-14 run. As you can tell, this is a QB draw the whole way. And what a run it was. Keep in mind that this game was in peril. The Cowboys are up 17-14. If they don’t convert this, they hand the ball back to Russell Wilson only up 20-14 with two minutes to go. Note that arguably the best tackler in the league, Bobby Wagner, gets a relatively free run at Prescott and it doesn’t slow him down much at all.
To cap it off, we see the Cowboys’ best possible call from the 1-yard line. It is not to give the ball to Zeke, who is standing on the 7-yard line. It is asking their quarterback to fall forward for a touchdown.
This is another option we didn’t see often enough: the QB/RB option wide. Here, late in the Rams game, Zeke continues to draw the eyes of defenders. This widens out the defense, which allows Prescott to find the easy seam and head in.
Using a quarterback as a runner defies convention and makes front offices nervous, especially if their last quarterback broke down physically. But if you are getting married to Dak Prescott, and it certainly seems like the Cowboys are, you must use his best traits as a key part of your red-zone offense. Nobody wants 12 carries per game. But if he has 39 career carries in the red zone and has started 51 games, that suggests Dallas has not properly taken advantage of his skills.
Let’s review my objectives for the 2019 red-zone offense:
- The Cowboys absolutely must utilize Dak Prescott on his feet more. In conjunction with Ezekiel Elliott, for sure, but designed runs must be more of a go-to move in the red zone and inside the 10. He is too gifted to ignore, and if Carolina makes Cam Newton their leading rushing threat deep in enemy territory, I think the Cowboys should do the same with Prescott.
- Dallas resisted the urge to use mesh concepts or rub and crossing routes. Too much of the Cowboys’ passing game has been used in isolation, and it is too easy to defend. This should change immediately, especially with Randall Cobb and Tony Pollard now in the mix. They must work in concert to free up receivers with traffic and confusion.
- The offense must work quickly and on schedule. When they’re in the red zone, Prescott should take a three-step drop and get rid of the ball. The longer he holds it, the chances for success decrease and protection is more likely to dissolve. But this hinges on the right routes, which goes back to meshes on crossers.
- The offensive line must be better, not because they filled the box with more tight ends (and thus defenders) but simply better as a five-man group. It would still be best to have the defense spread out horizontally against 11 Personnel (maybe even 10 Personnel) and to empty the box rather than fill it. This also makes Prescott more of a running threat.
- And, this one wasn’t in the piece on Monday, but after looking at the Chiefs tape, you simply cannot insert enough misdirection and presnap motion in your designs. This is all to assist in making the defense more vulnerable to your attacks.
Now we wait to see if Kellen Moore agrees. Lots of jobs, including that of the head coach, may hang in the balance.