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By Bob Sturm 22m ago
One-hundred seventy-one days since the Dallas Cowboys held their first full training camp practice in Oxnard, Calif.; 37 days until Super Bowl 56 in Inglewood, Calif.; and just one more day until the 3:25 p.m. start at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, against the Philadelphia Eagles …
Let’s have a dialogue.
In this spot you no doubt expect a thorough game preview and I am honored to normally provide one. However, this week, we find a game where neither team seems terribly compelled to risk much in terms of personnel or tactics, and they also have very little to gain. The Cowboys and their hated rivals from Philadelphia will meet on the field and for some reason will be featured as the best game for Saturday night, despite neither team promising much more than a brisk run-through in which they try not to get anyone hurt. In what will serve as a small dress rehearsal, Dallas will try to find its groove, but in the end, there is nothing that can be accomplished on Saturday night that can be defined as meaningful or terribly important.
Milestones don’t mean much and we can act like a great performance is everything, but sports doesn’t carry over from week to week like we wish it would and, therefore, when the Cowboys and the Arizona Cardinals kick off their likely rematch one week from Saturday or Sunday, nothing that happens in this Eagles game will matter — provided that we aren’t discussing a catastrophic injury of some sort.
Clearly, we would not have this position if Dallas won last week, but it didn’t. Therefore a pragmatic approach is prudent and I trust the Cowboys understand that.
Either way, the tea leaves indicate that between COVID-19 and discretion, we will not see the regulars much (if at all) and, therefore, a thorough game preview containing points about players who will likely not be terribly active on Saturday night will be nothing better than some glorified fish wrap.
So, I audibled at the line of scrimmage.
Today, I want to use this riffing space to actually riff. And in doing so, I want to tackle a question I have been asked for the past few months, but with the perspective of Jan. 7. I will offer a premise and then you can either agree or blast me into outer space in the comments.
Here it is from a collection of emails and tweet mentions all morphed into the following:
How do we define a successful 2021 Dallas Cowboys season?
I get it, this sounds a lot like a question I would write about in training camp. But I actually think this is a topic I would have wanted to tackle next week, yet would not because I would probably spend every second preparing for the home playoff game. This lousy Week 18 matchup with nothing on the line gives us the chance to sort of tackle this right here and now.
So let me work through it.
I am reasonably sure that my thoughts about expectations every year are attempting to find a reasonable target. Yes, the goal of every season for the top class of NFL franchises with historical trophy cases is to win the Super Bowl.
Of course, that is absurd, laughable and impossible, but everyone likes to strut around and talk like they want every day to be Saturday and Christmas to be a monthly holiday. It doesn’t work that way.
That said, this team is too talented and has too many things going for it to accept anything less than an NFC East title. Dallas also needs to do so with at least 10 wins and on Saturday, it can get to a dozen.
Check and check. Those are not massive accomplishments, but those are prerequisites to get where you want to go.
You also need to get to the playoffs without being decimated by injury. According to current status, Michael Gallup and Jabril Cox are lost for the season. A third wide receiver and a rookie depth linebacker. Both could obviously help, but neither would be listed on the list of “required” players who cannot be replaced.
Check (Saturday pending — coach needs to be smart about that game).
Now, we get to the real thresholds of the question. Clearly, there is no way for this franchise at this point to find any success by not winning a weak division and not making the playoffs. Those are what we call “givens” and the Cowboys got them.
Can you do both of those and still have a disappointing season?
Yes. Yes, you can.
Let’s proceed and examine the potential levels from here.
Wild-card round
It is a near certainty that the Cowboys will be rematched against the Arizona Cardinals in Round 1, with a fallback position of the Los Angeles Rams. But I am operating under the premise and possibility that they will get the Cardinals twice in 15 days.
And when they do, they must figure out a way to win it. Must-win. Why would you call it a must-win? Because if you lose that game, the wheels of the entire operation will come off all over again.
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will likely return to Arlington as the Cowboys’ opponent in the wild-card round. (Tim Heitman / USA Today)
Every single person who didn’t want coach Mike McCarthy hired here will rush to a platform of their choosing to repeat how they told us so. They will want him fired and they will want to send him back to his football barn. It won’t matter if there is a good rational decision and thought process. They managed to heal after a crazy 2020, but the injuries justified the silliness. But for this team to be virtually healthy and in the driver’s seat and then in November it surrendered most chances at the top seed and then in January ended up in a midlevel seeding and then lost back-to-back home games to a team that was on a full losing streak in Arizona?
Trust me, he doesn’t want to deal with that, and that will be a top discussion point.
What McCarthy doesn’t get will go directly at Dak Prescott.
You know the drill. Heavy is the head that wears the crown of the biggest contract guarantee in NFL history and then authors a slump that basically lasted the entire second half of the season after teasing the MVP discussion in October. Every Prescott doubter from the Tony Romo faction on will come running with torches to confirm all their priors and this proves that he was propped up by the media and was never very good. The Cowboys will never win with him as QB and they told us so.
No offense, but as someone who does this for a living, allow me to say that I would love to take a six- to eight-month vacation rather than hear that McCarthy and Prescott both need to go for the entire spring and summer. It will be absolutely exhausting, so even though I don’t ever cheer for outcomes, I would like to avoid a one-and-done this year because it will promote poor work conditions for guys like me.
In short, losing in the wild-card round would be a failure of a 2021 season.
But what if they win that game and advance?
Divisional round
If the Cowboys win, it’s a virtual certainty that they will be off to Green Bay as the highest remaining seed would play the lowest remaining seed. Yes, the Eagles or 49ers could spring an upset — but there’s probably not a good chance, so let’s play the probabilities.
In that event, we are now past a failed season unless the Cowboys are not competitive. Frankly, I am reasonably sure because of the matchup and even the added tension of a McCarthy return to Lambeau Field and what that would mean to both teams, I would really like the Cowboys’ chances against the Packers.
That doesn’t mean they would win, but it does set up for a very spirited affair and you would at least fancy the Cowboys’ possibilities to have the chance to make a play or two to pull off the upset. It could happen, but most would expect it would not.
If the game is a good one, but they lose, I can see this being couched as a “break-even” season. Huge progress over 2019 and 2020, a divisional crown, but proof that not having home field or a bye cost them. They will have 12 or 13 wins and a bright future in many respects.
I think a competitive loss would be a “neutral” season, if that makes sense — and it might not.
But a win? An upset where you take down Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field and book a trip to the NFC Championship Game? This is where you cross over on the successful season level.
NFC Championship Game
This question started with a Cowboys fan from way back telling me he doesn’t see them winning four games and, therefore, he dreads what’s ahead. So, I said, “Wait, you are telling me making the first final four since you were in high school would not be progress?” He thought and I think he ultimately agreed.
I think you have to agree. If this team wins two playoff games in the same postseason for the first time since the Super Bowl 30 year of 1995, then the 2021 Cowboys have had a successful season. Not a dream season and maybe not even a historically relevant one — that would depend on what happens next, I suppose — but a successful one.
Now, you are likely in Tampa Bay, which would be symmetrical with how the year started in Week 1. By now, you are having dreams about this team and you cannot believe you actually slew the dragon of Rodgers but walk right into the lair of the bigger dragon known as Tom Brady. Yikes.
Anything from here on in is just running up the score. You have a one in four chance at winning the franchise’s sixth Super Bowl and for Prescott to join Cowboys legends and to zoom right past Romo into the really big room of team success that this franchise demands. McCarthy would now perhaps be accepted as a real Cowboys coach and not some Packers coach in a new jacket. At this point, they would be feeling like they can beat anyone and would wonder if they are a team of destiny.
To complete the potential dream, maybe they make one more play than they did in Week 1 and actually take down the Super Bowl champions at their place. Which, of course, leads to Los Angeles.
Super Bowl LVI
Now, we are just running up the score. Yes, if the Cowboys lose the Super Bowl vs. Kansas City (projected opponent) or somehow win it, it is clearly the most successful season since the dynasty Cowboys. Unqualified and so many of you will not know how to react or what to do with your hands. You will claim you can die in peace and you will probably be forced to come to terms that McCarthy is a good coach (and the first to ever win a Super Bowl with two franchises) and Prescott is a worthy QB of every accolade he receives.
Then, you will buy a shirt, enjoy a parade, and begin stressing whether you can keep free agents and repeat, because while everyone says they would give everything and anything for one dream to come true, I sadly report that that promise is broken within 30 days every single time.
So, do you agree? Lose in Round 1 is a failure. Lose at Green Bay is a borderline neutral year. Make an NFC title game or better and it is an unmitigated successful year and of course, Super Bowl 56 might be the highlight of your past few decades and make you fall back in love with the franchise that drives you crazy.
That is my best answer and my most meaningful riffing on this cold January morning. I will be interested to see what you all think of my thoughts and maybe even your own.
Enjoy Week 18 because it is about to get real next week. Very real.
