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By Bob Sturm Mar 30, 2020
In a three-month period of seemingly nonstop exits, the Cowboys suffered a massive and unexpected goodbye last week when the great Travis Frederick walked out for his premature retirement. His battle with Guillain-Barré Syndrome did not keep him from perfect attendance in 2019 (only Dak Prescott joined him in that club), but it did ultimately chase him into another line of work, effective immediately. The wear and tear, as well as the struggle of both his profession and his condition, had the 29-year old looking deeply into the mirror and declaring it was time to go.
This is a very big loss, one whose effects will resonate throughout the franchise.
Last week, Jon Machota elaborated on this decision and provided his perspective on the situation. Today, I wanted to look at what Frederick has meant and where Dallas will go from here. Most importantly, I want to analyze what the Cowboys have left and project their new normal and its standing in the NFL. The Dallas offensive line has been automatically given top-five status for much of the last six years ever since 2014 put this group on the map. Will that remain the case?
The Cowboys center from the 2013 draft was known for his toughness, intelligence and technical proficiency at one of the most important positions up front. He was brought in from Wisconsin late in the first round of that draft and ridiculed for being over-drafted, and then exceeded every single unreasonable expectation, becoming the gold standard around the sport at his position.
Frederick certainly didn’t lose very often. After a bumpy rookie season sandwiched by unextraordinary guard play, he then was charged with two sacks over the rest of his career from 2014-2019, a span of over 5,500 snaps. What is remarkable about that factoid is that despite those numbers, he was probably a much better run blocker than pass protector. Let that soak in for a moment.
He would have a few tough days along the way — Damon “Snacks” Harrison and Linval Joseph were probably his two most formidable opponents — but, like his buddies Zack Martin on one side and Tyron Smith watching the other flank, the excellence was always clear and obvious. To assemble three standouts at this level seemed to suggest that winning big would be inevitable around here. Of course, as we have learned over 25 years with this organization, many things are inevitable but winning big certainly never seems to be one of them.
Frederick led the Cowboys in snaps nearly every year and avoided significant injury until his illness took him down in 2018. From 2014 through 2019, the offensive line seldom showed vulnerability, and the correlation between his attendance and unit’s ability to function at top levels seems clear in many ways. The following two graphs are probably my favorite way to demonstrate this:
That graph contextualizes Frederick’s incredible reliability and durability. The only thing affecting the height of those blue lines was the length of the Cowboys season and the number of plays, not his availability. He was always available. The graph below will show the number of sacks the Cowboys offensive line (and, of course, the QB) suffered each year. You might notice how these two graphs tell the same story.
You know a few things here as you read this, I assume. One, my position against the “football intelligentsia” when it comes to a rather newfound conclusion that all sacks in football are blamed on the QB. I did not believe that to be the case with Tony Romo, and I do not believe that to be the case with Dak Prescott. Yes, certain QBs get the ball out faster than others, but that doesn’t mean that we only evaluate offensive linemen on running plays. Of course, the offensive line has to protect longer or shorter based on the ball coming out, but that is literally their job and why they often get paid well. A QB certainly plays a role in sacks, but I promise with each passing year you are going to hear more and more media members claim that it all rests on the QB. I will always disagree (and have plenty of coaches and linemen on my side, based on my research) — which is why we evaluate each sack individually and separately, by the way. Like snowflakes, no two sacks are alike, and yes, sometimes they are on the QB. But others happen because the offensive line was beaten or fooled (and still others take place because nobody was able to get open, but the QB should still be able to throw the ball away to save a loss of yardage).
The other thing I believe strongly, as it pertains to those two graphs, is the difference between being beaten and being fooled. We can easily see on film when a player gets whipped by the man in front of him. But it is much more difficult to evaluate when they are fooled. And this is where 2018 showed us the danger of playing without Travis Frederick. His ability to often get the offensive line and the total pass protection (tight ends and members of the backfield, too) in the right look was second to none. Surely, some will feel this is a slight on Joe Looney for his work that year instead, but that will be where the water gets murky.
The 2018 aberration is clear. In the five years that Smith-Frederick-Martin spent together as a trio, the line gave up 29 sacks per season. The one year they were separated, the number nearly doubles. That is not a coincidence. The QB did not suddenly forget how to play, only to then remember one year later. The brains of the machine were missing, and the evidence seems to verify that. There are many moving parts that must go into a deeper analysis of that year — Scott Linehan, Jason Garrett, Amari Cooper, Tyron Smith — but if you simply overlay the two graphics, you might feel Occam’s Razor is in full effect. The simplest solution is usually the correct one, and taking away an All-Pro is felt by all.
Before we move on to 2020, I was looking at the piece I wrote last summer about Frederick’s annual awards to verify his quality. I also did plenty on his film work in that signature win in Pittsburgh in 2016. You might enjoy revisiting it all here, but here are a few lines:
Travis Frederick had perfect attendance from 2013 to 2017. From the time he was drafted until this time last year, he never came close to missing any time for any reason, and you could have argued he was as durable as it came. He was solid as a rock who and the best of both worlds: Huge on ability and perfect on availability. There was no reason to not pay him as one of the best at his position, because he was one of the best – if not the best.
Consider each of those years individually.
2013: As a rookie, he was a no-brainer selection to the All-Rookie Team.
2014: Frederick went to the Pro Bowl and made first-team All-Pro. There is no higher honor for his position.
2015: Pro Bowl and second-team All-Pro. (Carolina’s Ryan Kalil was on the first team.)
2016: Frederick was again a Pro Bowler and first-team All-Pro selection.
2017: Just a Pro Bowl player and no All-Pro considerations. So, yeah, his “worst” season merely featured a trip to the Pro Bowl.
And, after missing 2018, he returned to the Pro Bowl in 2019.
But, like Keyser Söze, he is gone.
Let’s take a look at what the Cowboys offensive line should and could look like. We must start with the facts that we knew a long time ago, long before Travis Frederick even knew he was ill: While it is awesome to have a young offensive line that grows together, that could mean that soon they will all grow old together, which means they will get more expensive while their bodies are inevitably breaking down.
This season is Tyron Smith’s 10th professional year, and while it is only Martin’s seventh, he is older than Smith by a month and certainly played rugged football at Notre Dame before ever reaching the NFL. Frederick was the youngest of the three, but the first to go. While there is no reason to assume either of the other two are soon to follow, there is no doubt that Tyron’s durability and excellence have been going through a normalization of sorts. He has not been himself for an entire season in several years, and his last year with perfect attendance was in 2015, when Matt Cassel and Kellen Moore were the featured QBs and Smith was just 24 for much of the season.
We know that Martin and Smith are the rocks upon which this is built, but the quality of the line will be in the other three spots. With that in mind, let’s take a look at each position moving forward and see what conclusions might be drawn.
LEFT TACKLE – Tyron Smith, 29.8 years old in September, contract through 2023 (but almost no dead money at any point between 2020 and 2023 if the Cowboys were to say goodbye). Smith is someone that I still hold plenty of confidence in, and his contract remains appealing for several reasons, but his upside is lower than it has been. He does seem mortal and beat up, and November and December seem a problem each year for the big man. There is still plenty to like, and I don’t think finding his successor is a pressing need, but I will concede he is not a 10 out of 10 anymore and probably more like a strong 8.
LEFT GUARD – Connor Williams, 23.3 years old, contract through 2021. Williams is in a pivotal third year at the left guard helm despite the first two years ranging from “disappointing” to “incomplete.” He now needs to step up and prove he can be a NFL starter at no worse than a league-average level of competency. I will say that 2019 was better than 2018, but in both seasons, it seemed the team received a small boost when he was injured and replaced. He is improving, but the clock is also ticking.
CENTER – Connor McGovern, 22.9 years old, contract through 2022/ Joe Looney, 30 years old, contract through 2020. McGovern was the center for the entire 2017 season at Penn State and seems to be the most likely full-time starter at this position in 2020 if he can have a solid camp. Of course, he barely appeared in his rookie year at camp or on the roster due to an injury/redshirt, so Looney will be the important veteran insurance policy. He’ll make some feel secure and others look at 2018’s 56 sacks and break out in sweat. They have a chance to be decent here, but we had better slow our roll a bit.
RIGHT GUARD – Zack Martin, 29.8 years old, contract through 2024. This is a near-perfect player with no signs of regression and a very manageable contract who seems to have a body that can survive until it expires. Let’s move on to something more pressing.
RIGHT TACKLE – La’el Collins, 27.1 years old, contract through 2024. Collins signed a surprise extension that probably erased the last chance Byron Jones could be kept. At five years and $50 million, his contract is very reasonable, and because the guarantee is so low, they can change their mind after 2021 and be fine. Collins was very mediocre in 2017 and 2018, but in 2019, he appeared to turn a corner to being considered a top-10 right tackle in a league that has trouble finding them. This move might be what the entire quality of the offensive line depends upon. If he is what we saw in 2019, the line might be in great shape.
CONCLUSION: Obviously, losing Frederick is huge, and the status of Tyron’s back and knees remains tenuous. But if McGovern or Williams turn out to be league-average starters, the line will be good. If both can do it in 2020, the line will be very good. Can it ever be great again? Well, that may depend on everything going great, which starts with Tyron Smith playing more than 13 games for the first time since 2015 and finding a swing tackle to cover them if he can’t. That might be worth consideration in April’s draft, because the options in-house are rather unproven — especially to a new coaching staff.
