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By Bob Sturm 1h ago
118 days since training camp opened in Oxnard, 72 days until Super Bowl 54 in Miami and just two days until the 3:25 pm Week 12 game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, against the New England Patriots…
This one is going to be fun.
There is something different about playing the Patriots. Although it is just one game, with no greater value than Week 3 against the Dolphins, no single person on the planet actually feels that way. There are basically two groups of people when it comes to this matter.
First, there is the group that believes this game is a pivotal challenge that could possibly inspire the rest of the season with a confidence that is difficult to quantify. Everyone can see the value of beating the Seahawks in Seattle in 2014, which made everyone instantly believe Dallas was at least a notch better (maybe two) than they had before that game was played. What about the trips to Green Bay and Pittsburgh in 2016? Both of those road wins were very similar to the 2014 Seattle game for how the Cowboys went to visit a heavyweight in their stadium and on their terms during the regular season, and lived to tell the tale. That sort of win has a galvanizing effect that certainly feels real and makes you believe a deep January run is possible.
Well, here it is. So far, the road wins have been at Washington, at New York Giants and at Detroit. None of those are huge credits or morale bumps in the slightest. Failures in New Orleans and New York against the Jets have put the Cowboys deeper in the hole to the next group.
That group, specifically, is the one that truly observes and believes “the Cowboys haven’t beaten anybody” and need this as a referendum on their quality. We actually heard this going into the Philadelphia game a few weeks back: The Cowboys needed this win to prove to critics that they are a good football team and that they can believe in their improvements in 2019. The Cowboys then destroyed Philadelphia 37-10, and suddenly it wasn’t a good win anymore because the Eagles aren’t very good. Of all of their losses this season, it is actually difficult to say whether the local critics would have given them credit for any of them even had they won.
Think about it. If you beat New Orleans with Teddy Bridgewater, nobody is impressed. Of course, if you lose to them, it is much worse. Then you beat Green Bay without Davante Adams? You beat Minnesota without Adam Thielen? Big deal. But, man, you really don’t want to lose to both of them. This must tell us that everything here is pretty mediocre. And you get no credit for beating the Jets, by the way. They can’t beat anyone. HOW DID YOU LOSE TO THE JETS??? My overall premise is there is a pretty good chance that, even with a 10-0 record, there would still be people suggesting that any accomplishments and statistics are based on a soft schedule. Only a trip to New England will please those critics. And to be honest, that isn’t true by the next day, either. By the time the plane lands back in Dallas, they would be talking about how we really need to see this in late January, or it won’t really matter.
This is the burden of credibility that Dallas has earned since 1996 — which, by the way, is the last time the Cowboys beat the Patriots in a football game. That was a touchdown-less 12-6 battle at Texas Stadium between Troy Aikman and Barry Switzer against Drew Bledsoe, Bill Parcells and a Patriots team that would actually play in the Super Bowl six weeks later against Brett Favre’s Packers. The Cowboys would then begin their drought of January/February glory which continues to this day.
Because of that drought, we can’t enjoy nice things around here. The burden grows and is passed down to the next group of Cowboys players who must deal with it. I promise you that Dak Prescott has nothing to do with this drought, but Tony Romo had to deal with it, too. Nobody believes a Cowboys story will end happily because an entire generation has yet to see a Cowboys story end happily. There are people celebrating their 30th birthday who were not really old enough to comprehend the last time this team won the Super Bowl. The cynicism about ever seeing another one is what makes people roll their eyes and wonder about the credibility of having a decent team accomplishing statistical high-water marks.
Meanwhile, New England is what the opposite of that looks like. They have gone to the last three Super Bowls, and if it weren’t for the Philly Special, they would be going for a four-peat right now. With yet another title to defend this year, it really doesn’t matter to anyone that they have played an absolutely ridiculous schedule. They have credibility that does not require any contorting of the facts to tell you who they have beaten and how good they really are. They don’t require a measuring-stick game because they are the measuring stick. They can pummel the Dolphins, Jets and Bills repeatedly and sprinkle in wins against the Giants and Redskins and Browns, and nobody asks any questions except where they will be playing in the Super Bowl this year. They are the one true dynasty of this era and ranking the wins on the scale of soft to high-quality stopped mattering years ago. They play two types of games: regular-season games (that barely matter) and postseason games that continue to shape their legacy.
You want credibility? Take a look at that trophy case and take your “soft schedule” nonsense somewhere else.
The Cowboys are getting in the ring with the heavyweight champion of the world on Sunday and are playing them in their house. Since the day Tom Brady was drafted, this franchise has played 179 games in Foxborough and won 82.3 percent of them (148-31). They have lost 31 home games in 20 years and have lost only 11 home games in the last decade. The last home game they lost was in October of 2017. The last time they didn’t win the AFC East in a healthy Tom Brady season was 2002. Do you know how insane that is?
With all that said, Dallas will present New England with a significant test on Sunday. Let’s discuss.
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
This is the challenge everyone really wants to see. What do the Cowboys try against the Patriots in New England on a cold and possibly wet day as Kellen Moore and Dak Prescott decide to come at the modern-day king of defensive football, Bill Belichick, and his top-ranked defense?
Belichick has made a living inside the NFL’s collective heads because he seems to be able to sniff out what you do on offense and bring it to its knees. He has done this so many times that we have stopped keeping track. It happened to Peyton Manning numerous times, and it happened to Andy Reid and Sean McVay recently. The Patriots seldom seem to have the best defensive personnel in the league, but they always seem to have a way to bring the very best attacks to their knees.
That seems to famously come down to Belichick doing two things very, very well. The first is to figure out who on your roster is a problem and then eliminate them by overemphasizing the deployment of troops to make sure that guy doesn’t beat us. If you can take away an opponent’s top offensive option, then you will beat most teams on your schedule because most NFL teams have either zero or one “special” offensive player. The second objective is to patiently allow you, the opponent, to tie your own noose. He is not trying to beat you in one quarter or one snap. He is trying to play the role of a boa constrictor who will very slowly but methodically use as much of the game as it needs to squeeze the life and adventure right out of your offense. There will come a point in nearly every matchup — especially at their place — where you can see the expressions on the opponents’ faces that tell you their main objective is now to get this over with and return to the bus.
In other words, right at this very moment, Bill and his staff have already figured out their plans against this offense that Dallas has rolled out to big results this season. They likely think they have several comparable units through the years to study and a recipe to bring this thing to a grinding halt.
Before we go any further, here is Skyler’s depiction of how the Cowboys will line up in their familiar 11-personnel and how the Patriots will probably counter with at least six defensive backs (they actually played eight DBs a few times against Philly last week), about four hybrid DE/LBs and a single DT inside. Be prepared for New England to roll out lots of different looks to make sure there is never a feeling of comfort between OC and QB. That is what they do.
We should anticipate New England doing a few interesting things defensively. First, they play more man coverage than any team in football (56 percent). They also blitz quite a bit and bring the single-most Cover-0 blitzes in all the land. That means they will have no problem sending the house about four or five times a game while leaving no safeties in support of their corners. You can burn them once in a while, but they don’t think you can very often. Carson Wentz actually did last week, but Nelson Agholor could not reel the ball in at the back of the end zone on a play that very well might have changed that game. But one thing we did see is countless plays where the Eagles had literally nobody open. Stephon Gilmore locks down on whoever they think is your biggest threat — last week, Zach Ertz, at times; this week, Amari Cooper, initially — and then they have a troop of other strong coverage players to support him. The thought is that you won’t be able to provide enough matchup issues to have a decided advantage. Dallas, with Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb, should be able to test that about as well as anyone on the schedule. New England generally tries to lock down the No. 1 and then send double teams at the No. 2, which could be a slot or a tight end with trap coverages to go fishing for turnovers. And that, of course, is what Dak Prescott must avoid on Sunday.
The other objective is to take away your early-down runs with their trio of beef in Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy and Adam Butler, and to makes sure you don’t gash them inside. This makes us wonder if the Cowboys will reel in their adventurous ways and get awfully conservative with Zeke running into the brick wall (like versus the Saints) and try to win this game 20-17. I highly advise against it. You can run against New England, but it must be with misdirection and it must be mostly to the edges. As a 3-4 team, there is some space in the B-gaps, but that is a tough way to make a living. Elliott working in concert with Tony Pollard will be a nice way to attack this, as well as Dak Prescott unleashing his own two feet a little more than they usually call for in this situation.
The general tone, and the only one that can be successful this Sunday, must be the following: Play-calling and quarterback play that is courageous without stepping into reckless. You must show them what has made you the No. 1 production team in the NFL and be willing to punch them in the face. But you also have to protect the ball very carefully and take small profits along the way. They will set a series of traps on your path to victory, and when they spring a cover-0 blitz and ambush the offense, it will be important that they don’t knock the ball out and give themselves a short field. They tend to do that.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Dallas’ third-down offense that is the best in the NFL versus New England’s third-down defense that is the best in the NFL
The 2017 Minnesota Vikings set the modern NFL record by having a defense that allowed a third-down conversion only 25.2 percent of the time. Well, the 2019 New England Patriots are making a run at it, currently sitting at a ridiculous 19.3 percent. Meanwhile, Dallas has converted on 52.1 percent of their third-down opportunities as an offense this year, which gives them a significant lead over the rest of the NFL. They probably can’t catch the 2011 Saints for the all-time mark of 56.7 percent, but they seem to have a pretty good chance of breaking any Dallas franchise record — 2006’s 48.8 mark. We know that you want to stay out of third downs, but Dallas can be proud of how well they have moved the chains and kept drives alive this year. It will be interesting to see what tricks Belichick has planned — Mike Zimmer tried plenty — and if the Cowboys can emerge just fine on the other side.
Now, let’s flip it around and give Tom Brady the ball.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
As it stands now, we can either say this is one of Brady’s best seasons for keeping this team at the top without a notable supporting cast or a sure sign of decline at age 42. He is throwing the ball a ton. In fact, he is on pace to lead the NFL in completions, while his attempts are right there with the league leaders. It is remarkable how many passes he is attempting per game — more than 40 per game, the most of his career. He’s also completing more passes per game than at any point in his career. His completion percentage is down quite a bit, his touchdowns per game are at their lowest since 2003 and the yards/attempt are the lowest since 2006 (6.8, with a career average of 7.5, while his number in 2016 and 2017 was over 8). In fact, if you look a little further, over the last eight weeks, his YPA is 33rd of 35 qualifying QBs. This is staggering. So, is he having the best year of his career keeping this thing above water with no significant weapons on his offense besides Julian Edelman, or is he in clear decline and fading?
Of course, it is all under the ridiculous heading that a 42-year-old quarterback is trying to go to his fourth straight Super Bowl and has been to more Super Bowls already than any other entire franchise and has won more, as well. His Hall of Fame case is this: He is Tom Brady.
Here is how we envision things might work on Sunday, but we should qualify it with the normal injury-report suggestions that players on each side might not be able to go with health concerns. This is only our best guess as the week winds down.
I will say this here: The Patriots offense is not very good. We have seen elite New England offenses; this is not one of them. You might retort: They’re third in scoring, how bad can they be? To that, I would direct you to how they have absolutely compensated for their offensive issues with defensive dominance. The defense has presented Brady and his crew with an average starting position of the 33.5 (No. 1 in the NFL) due to a turnover differential of +18 (also No. 1 in the NFL). So they are outperforming the entire league in hidden yardage, and the need to drive the ball is minimized. They have the most takeaways and the fourth-fewest giveaways, and that means they don’t need to roll up big yardage. But is it real or the product of facing very poor quarterbacks and offenses all year long? I think both can be true.
The best way to deal with the Patriots offense is to make them play offense. I know that seems crazy, but if you have watched them, you know so few opponents actually are able to present the challenge. They have a very difficult time when forced to drive the ball and survive on third downs because the supporting cast is just not very good at the moment. The offensive line has struggled, and the receivers have been rotating and switching constantly. Edelman and Phillip Dorsett have become constants, but now Mohamed Sanu seems banged up and rookie N’Keal Harry is getting a look. He appears to have some real promise, but it is plenty early for a guy who debuted last week.
Brady takes care of the ball, is happy to wait you out all day by taking five-yard passes underneath and seldom allows himself to get sacked. He is at the maximum level of quarterback intelligence after all these years, and that is their biggest weapon right now. They have had major issues running the ball or finding vertical plays. Yet, most weeks, it simply doesn’t matter.
The Patriots need to be challenged on both sides of the ball with a physical approach that is the best they’ve seen the season. We have started to see what Demarcus Lawrence, Maliek Collins, Michael Bennett and Robert Quinn can do as a crew, but this game feels like it might require more than pressures. Perhaps the magic number is two takeaways and three sacks (preferably a combined strip-sack). Can you get that done? Then you probably can be in a position to win this game. But if it is a week with no takeaways and just one sack, I just don’t really see it.
The obvious counter to this approach, of course, is to screen the Cowboys to death. If your talent can’t get too much vertically, and if they know their pass rush is the key to success, then the Patriots roll out a screen game that turns easy catches into big gains with simply a single broken tackle or two. We saw the Packers and the Vikings both have big offensive days without really using wide receivers, so you better believe the Patriots have put both of those films to great use this week.
Furthermore, the Vikings’ use of 21 personnel has probably also been looked at hard. I don’t think the Cowboys have presented opponents with a belief that running is a waste of time, and if Leighton Vander Esch is actually out, the attacks on Sean Lee and Jaylon Smith will probably be many.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: DE Robert Quinn versus LT Isaiah Wynn – The big story in New England is that, finally, their first-round pick from 2018 might be able to save them at left tackle. It is pretty amazing that they have been going with TCU’s Marshall Newhouse at left tackle almost the entire season after signing him off his couch on September 11th when Wynn was injured. Honestly, he was pretty poor, but the Patriots managed around it like they always do. Wynn is one of their most talented kids but was on the IR all of last season. He was slated to replace Trent Brown this year, but then was quickly hurt again. Now he’s back. He played left tackle for Georgia in 2017 after playing plenty at guard through 2016. Because he is 6’2, he was slated to move inside at the next level, but I though that was a bum rap. Wynn is sternum-to-sternum on his man in almost every situation when pass protecting, meaning he concedes no edge to attack — a rarity that reveals fantastic feet. He just doesn’t lose very often, but seldom has he faced a test like Quinn so far in his career. That could be huge.
THE PICK: Patriots 26, Cowboys 24
I make this pick as a complete referendum on the coaching situation on each side of the field. On one side, I have seen the Cowboys lose the coaching matchup a bit too often this season and seemingly get beat on things that they should have probably seen coming (because we did on Friday!). On the other side is Bill Belichick, who provides his team with a touchdown advantage tactically in seemingly every game they play. He is as far from overrated as a coach can get. He strategically finds solutions to problems other coaches don’t see. After studying their film and their 2019 season, I think this might be one of his best performances yet. The coaching advantage is probably too much to overcome.
