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Eyes on 2025 - Looking for Young Linemen
Dallas was paying top dollar for a declining OL. This might be a path to a '25 rebound.
Bob Sturm
Nov 13, 2024
I plan to write frequently about the Cowboys between now and the end of 2024, but as you’ve probably heard, it will be with an eye toward the future.
As a big believer that things are never hopeless in the NFL, I remain firm in my belief that a team with the proper motivation can bounce back quickly after a disastrous season like 2024.
Yes, my biggest flaw is often optimism, but I’ve seen too many cases where teams suffer a sharp decline, only to bounce back when everyone suggests they will “be bad for a decade.”
This isn’t to suggest that the 2024 Dallas Cowboys are close to contending right now. They aren’t. They are among the worst teams in the NFL at the line of scrimmage, as their offensive and defensive lines have been well below even the NFL average for this entire campaign. But the road back in these areas of the roster is often not fixed by a massive splash. Instead, it’s a series of smaller moves that combine to shift the needle back in the right direction.
It requires looking carefully at every part of the roster and doing so with honesty about what you have on hand, what you can rely on moving forward, and, most importantly, what is just not good enough to be part of an attempted revival.
Hopefully, the Cowboys are already on top of this internally. As usual, we’re skeptical of how well they’re staffed to handle this, but also, as usual, they won’t invite us to the meetings. Heck, half the people in these meetings probably won’t be working for the organization until January.
Regardless, we can start today. I’m calling this series “Eyes on 2025,” and it will continue as we go, between now and next summer. We’re in no hurry, but there will be times in these games, week to week, where you might enjoy the idea that we’re looking for players who can help moving forward.
I thought one of the most encouraging pieces of Sunday’s discouraging performance was the play of young Asim Richards. Before Sunday, he had played 48 snaps in his NFL career and also just had his 24th birthday. He is in the second year of his career and therefore, as a Day 3 pick in 2023 (Round 5, Pick 171), he represents the players who are most vital on this roster.
Who are those guys? Guys on fixed incomes and guys who are here through 2026 on those same rookie contracts who easily are part of the “4-year conveyor belt of NFL roster building” concept that I have written about many times over the years (and should do a refresher for our new readers). You have invested in players whose names we know, but we never see them on game day. Could two to four of these names become regulars that don’t stink? Could Asim Richards start on your offensive line in 2025?
Back in March, we looked at Richards, TJ Bass, and Brock Hoffman to see how any might be guys in the 2024 mix if the Cowboys did not spend their draft on OL. Now, we know they did invest heavily in the OL, but still, these three guys have all made the team and are all under contract for 2025 (with Richards and Bass through 2026), so we must admit they remain in the mix for the future – especially if Zack Martin and Terence Steele are looking a bit questionable to be back.
Here is what we wrote in the spring about Asim:
Take a look for yourself. Kevin Utz has put the circle on his 12 most note-worthy snaps (good or bad). Here they are:
I have to be honest—I thought he was really good. He’s a very impressive run blocker who understands body positioning and seems to have good strength. I also like his calm demeanor, as if this isn’t a big deal that’s stressing him. He did allow a sack, but it looked like his feet stopped moving there, which is definitely fixable. Otherwise, there’s plenty to like.
Let’s put it this way: I’m not at all disappointed with Tyler Guyton’s rookie year, but I’d suggest that if we took each of their best games so far, we might say that Richards and Guyton are pretty close to each other. Yes, Richards might need to show he can sustain this level for three straight games (I’d love to see more in the next eight weeks), and he certainly doesn’t have the physical advantages of the towering Guyton, but this isn’t a contest of arm length or height. This is about helping the offense function. Richards and Guyton both show promise.
Richards has also been considered a candidate to move inside to guard. Guyton played his entire college career at Oklahoma as a right tackle. Cooper Beebe was a guard at Kansas State. Tyler Smith was a left tackle and a guard at Tulsa.
Which leads us to a brief thought exercise about the 2025 offensive line.
Let’s say Zack Martin is gone. He’s about to be a UFA, and it sure feels like he’s close to either retiring or trying somewhere new. I don’t see Dallas going out of their way to keep him.
Dallas will have a big decision regarding Terence Steele moving forward. His cap hit will jump from $6.5 million to over $18 million starting in 2025, and it will stay at least that high for the next four seasons through 2028. That isn’t crazy money if he’s a top tackle, but I think it’s fair to say he hasn’t been a top tackle since his major injury at the end of 2022. We’re now far enough down the road that you better be certain he’s your best lineman if you’re going to pay him a million per game. That’s why I’d expect them to release him with a June 1st designation, taking about a $6.5 million hit in dead money in 2025 and 2026 to say goodbye.
If that happens, the current 2024 depth chart looks much different.
Now, look, there is nothing good about losing Tyron Smith, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin, and Terence Steele over the course of 15 months. But, this is the league. You keep those guys and the cheapest one is Biadasz at $10 million per. Tyron and Zack were up at that $15 to $18 million range and Steele was at $16.5 million.
In other words, you were paying about $60 to $65 million for your offensive line in 2022-23 and in 2025, you could conceivably start an offensive line that would hit at about $10 million for your five starters combined.
Could it be pulled off? If so, could it be pulled off in a way where it is actually a positive part of your roster with players on the ascent? Maybe, it would look like this?
LT: Asim Richards, 24, $1 million
LG: Tyler Smith, 24, $4.2 million
C: Cooper Beebe, 24, $1.3 million
RG: TJ Bass, 26, $1 million
RT: Tyler Guyton, 24, $2.9 million
That is a very young and talented line that totals $10.4 million.
While it would be incredibly optimistic to suggest they could become a top unit, it is reasonable to say that all five of them appear to be competent players who belong on the field. Could they come together and take a step forward as a group?
Great question.
One thing is clear: this year, they didn’t trust their line, and it showed. They didn’t have a scheme that fit the group, partly because a bad line limits your potential scheme options dramatically.
The good news is this: This entire group—including Matt Waletzko and Brock Hoffman—is already here and under contract. In other words, if you want to add players to this group, it’s because you want to, not because you have to. You’ve added pieces, and they’ve taken their lumps this year as rookie starters, positioning them to become standouts soon.
The defensive line has many issues because they have no players of note under contract for 2025. That will be a different story in their “Eyes on 2025” write-up. But you can see how a few skill-position pieces on offense might be all you need if you get the scheme change right. Guys like Asim Richards may have you in a slightly better position than we realized. Of course, we need to see a lot more to know for sure.
With two 1st-round picks and a 3rd-rounder on the OL, there’s already quality invested and rooted in place. If you hit on Richards or a Bass/Hoffman (or both?), you might find yourself in decent shape at a surprisingly low cost.
We know that’s what you needed, given the cap expenditures of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons.
I honestly don’t hate it when you start to put pen to paper.
There. I hope you enjoyed a path to optimism amongst this smoldering rubble we deal with right now.
Dallas was paying top dollar for a declining OL. This might be a path to a '25 rebound.
Bob Sturm
Nov 13, 2024
I plan to write frequently about the Cowboys between now and the end of 2024, but as you’ve probably heard, it will be with an eye toward the future.
As a big believer that things are never hopeless in the NFL, I remain firm in my belief that a team with the proper motivation can bounce back quickly after a disastrous season like 2024.
Yes, my biggest flaw is often optimism, but I’ve seen too many cases where teams suffer a sharp decline, only to bounce back when everyone suggests they will “be bad for a decade.”
This isn’t to suggest that the 2024 Dallas Cowboys are close to contending right now. They aren’t. They are among the worst teams in the NFL at the line of scrimmage, as their offensive and defensive lines have been well below even the NFL average for this entire campaign. But the road back in these areas of the roster is often not fixed by a massive splash. Instead, it’s a series of smaller moves that combine to shift the needle back in the right direction.
It requires looking carefully at every part of the roster and doing so with honesty about what you have on hand, what you can rely on moving forward, and, most importantly, what is just not good enough to be part of an attempted revival.
Hopefully, the Cowboys are already on top of this internally. As usual, we’re skeptical of how well they’re staffed to handle this, but also, as usual, they won’t invite us to the meetings. Heck, half the people in these meetings probably won’t be working for the organization until January.
Regardless, we can start today. I’m calling this series “Eyes on 2025,” and it will continue as we go, between now and next summer. We’re in no hurry, but there will be times in these games, week to week, where you might enjoy the idea that we’re looking for players who can help moving forward.
I thought one of the most encouraging pieces of Sunday’s discouraging performance was the play of young Asim Richards. Before Sunday, he had played 48 snaps in his NFL career and also just had his 24th birthday. He is in the second year of his career and therefore, as a Day 3 pick in 2023 (Round 5, Pick 171), he represents the players who are most vital on this roster.
Who are those guys? Guys on fixed incomes and guys who are here through 2026 on those same rookie contracts who easily are part of the “4-year conveyor belt of NFL roster building” concept that I have written about many times over the years (and should do a refresher for our new readers). You have invested in players whose names we know, but we never see them on game day. Could two to four of these names become regulars that don’t stink? Could Asim Richards start on your offensive line in 2025?
Back in March, we looked at Richards, TJ Bass, and Brock Hoffman to see how any might be guys in the 2024 mix if the Cowboys did not spend their draft on OL. Now, we know they did invest heavily in the OL, but still, these three guys have all made the team and are all under contract for 2025 (with Richards and Bass through 2026), so we must admit they remain in the mix for the future – especially if Zack Martin and Terence Steele are looking a bit questionable to be back.
Here is what we wrote in the spring about Asim:
Swing tackles go on Day 3. If they find one, they have done well. If they find an OL starter on Day 3, they are pumped. I must admit, I never thought much about that until Sunday. Now, I am at least interested in seeing more.
Take a look for yourself. Kevin Utz has put the circle on his 12 most note-worthy snaps (good or bad). Here they are:
I have to be honest—I thought he was really good. He’s a very impressive run blocker who understands body positioning and seems to have good strength. I also like his calm demeanor, as if this isn’t a big deal that’s stressing him. He did allow a sack, but it looked like his feet stopped moving there, which is definitely fixable. Otherwise, there’s plenty to like.
Let’s put it this way: I’m not at all disappointed with Tyler Guyton’s rookie year, but I’d suggest that if we took each of their best games so far, we might say that Richards and Guyton are pretty close to each other. Yes, Richards might need to show he can sustain this level for three straight games (I’d love to see more in the next eight weeks), and he certainly doesn’t have the physical advantages of the towering Guyton, but this isn’t a contest of arm length or height. This is about helping the offense function. Richards and Guyton both show promise.
Richards has also been considered a candidate to move inside to guard. Guyton played his entire college career at Oklahoma as a right tackle. Cooper Beebe was a guard at Kansas State. Tyler Smith was a left tackle and a guard at Tulsa.
Which leads us to a brief thought exercise about the 2025 offensive line.
Let’s say Zack Martin is gone. He’s about to be a UFA, and it sure feels like he’s close to either retiring or trying somewhere new. I don’t see Dallas going out of their way to keep him.
Dallas will have a big decision regarding Terence Steele moving forward. His cap hit will jump from $6.5 million to over $18 million starting in 2025, and it will stay at least that high for the next four seasons through 2028. That isn’t crazy money if he’s a top tackle, but I think it’s fair to say he hasn’t been a top tackle since his major injury at the end of 2022. We’re now far enough down the road that you better be certain he’s your best lineman if you’re going to pay him a million per game. That’s why I’d expect them to release him with a June 1st designation, taking about a $6.5 million hit in dead money in 2025 and 2026 to say goodbye.
If that happens, the current 2024 depth chart looks much different.
Now, look, there is nothing good about losing Tyron Smith, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin, and Terence Steele over the course of 15 months. But, this is the league. You keep those guys and the cheapest one is Biadasz at $10 million per. Tyron and Zack were up at that $15 to $18 million range and Steele was at $16.5 million.
In other words, you were paying about $60 to $65 million for your offensive line in 2022-23 and in 2025, you could conceivably start an offensive line that would hit at about $10 million for your five starters combined.
Could it be pulled off? If so, could it be pulled off in a way where it is actually a positive part of your roster with players on the ascent? Maybe, it would look like this?
LT: Asim Richards, 24, $1 million
LG: Tyler Smith, 24, $4.2 million
C: Cooper Beebe, 24, $1.3 million
RG: TJ Bass, 26, $1 million
RT: Tyler Guyton, 24, $2.9 million
That is a very young and talented line that totals $10.4 million.
While it would be incredibly optimistic to suggest they could become a top unit, it is reasonable to say that all five of them appear to be competent players who belong on the field. Could they come together and take a step forward as a group?
Great question.
One thing is clear: this year, they didn’t trust their line, and it showed. They didn’t have a scheme that fit the group, partly because a bad line limits your potential scheme options dramatically.
The good news is this: This entire group—including Matt Waletzko and Brock Hoffman—is already here and under contract. In other words, if you want to add players to this group, it’s because you want to, not because you have to. You’ve added pieces, and they’ve taken their lumps this year as rookie starters, positioning them to become standouts soon.
The defensive line has many issues because they have no players of note under contract for 2025. That will be a different story in their “Eyes on 2025” write-up. But you can see how a few skill-position pieces on offense might be all you need if you get the scheme change right. Guys like Asim Richards may have you in a slightly better position than we realized. Of course, we need to see a lot more to know for sure.
With two 1st-round picks and a 3rd-rounder on the OL, there’s already quality invested and rooted in place. If you hit on Richards or a Bass/Hoffman (or both?), you might find yourself in decent shape at a surprisingly low cost.
We know that’s what you needed, given the cap expenditures of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons.
I honestly don’t hate it when you start to put pen to paper.
There. I hope you enjoyed a path to optimism amongst this smoldering rubble we deal with right now.
