Sturm: Eberflus Report Week 13- Third-Down Defense Fixed?

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Eberflus Report Week 13- Third-Down Defense Fixed?
The money down has been brutal in '25 – but since the bye week, Dallas looks much better.
Bob Sturm
Dec 02, 2025





Our objectives today will be:
  • Overall Defensive Evaluation
  • Major third-down defensive progress
  • Surviving A Mahomes Masterpiece
  • Film Study
  • Splash Plays and Snap Counts


OVERALL DEFENSIVE EVALUATION

The Cowboys have been historically awful this year at a critical defensive stat – 3rd Down Defense. So much of the NFL is decided by converting third downs when you have the ball and stopping third downs when you don’t. You have to extend drives and you have to get off the field.

It is the money down. It is where teams spend all of their money and time trying to figure out. It is critical to winning and losing and every season the teams who are getting the best QB play are the teams with the best 3rd down offenses. This, of course, is why they get paid what they do. You would spend a lot of money to have a cheat code on third down.

This also explains why we pay pass rushers more than run stoppers. We also pay Receivers more than RBs. And Corners more than linebackers. We need difference makers on third down and the entire sport is fueled on this moment that will show up between 10-15 times per game, per team. The good teams can do it and the bad teams cannot.

Even now, with more fourth downs than ever, we still know that third down is where the games are won and lost. Fourth downs only show up, maybe, three times a game.
This is why things have felt so hopeless in the Cowboys defensive room. This third-down defense has been ranked dead last in the NFL for weeks. Also, the 2025 defense has been ranked dead last in Cowboys history (numbers go back to 1990) and will have to go on quite a run to get out of last place. The 2020 Cowboys defense (Mike Nolan) was the previous “worst in franchise history” at 46.9% allowed - 98 of 209.

This Cowboys defense was much, much worse at the bye week at 52.6% allowed - 61 of 116. Not only were they dead last, but they had quite a lead on everyone else.
You might need to sit down so this next part doesn’t get you too worked up, because I am bound by law to tell the truth when I write these football studies, but I am also aware how mad people get when we mention the name I am about to mention. Breathe calmly.

Here we go:

This is absolutely due to Micah Parsons being gone. When you have one of the most feared pass rushers in the world, teams get very timid on third down. They know a strip-sack will end the game, so they avoid it and rationalize punts as good ideas rather than let Micah cause havoc. The Cowboys third downs for his four-year time in Dallas were amongst the very best in the NFL – 2nd overall. Behind the other generational sack machine, Myles Garrett’s Browns:


So, yeah, in 2020 (the year before Micah) the Cowboys have the worst 3rd down defense in franchise history – until 2025 (the year after Micah) when they have an even worse one. The 4 years in between you are easily the best 3rd down defense in the NFC as only Minnesota in 8th and the Giants in 9th are close. For 4 years!
Yes, Micah Parsons is great at what he does. We already knew that and anyone who saw him on Thanksgiving knows he is still that guy. But, Jerry and Micah had a showdown where nobody seemed to win and here we are.

Major third-down defensive progress?

And where we are was with the worst third-down defense in Cowboys history – until the bye week. But, the great thing about being absolutely awful at something is that showing improvement is actually quite easy at first.

And Dallas has had now three consecutive weeks of third-down defense that is making us wonder if they are fixing the situation in real time.
  • Against Las Vegas, the Dallas allowed only 3-12 - (25%)
  • Against the Eagles, it was just 5 of 12 - (41%)
  • Against the Chiefs, it was 5 of 13 - (38%)
  • All In, over 3 weeks, Dallas has a run going of 13-37 - (35%)
That 35 percent would be ranked in the Top-5 in the NFL if you could do it for a full season and you might recall that those four years with Micah were 36 percent. Have they figured out how to play 3rd down defense?
As you might expect, stopping Geno Smith and Jalen Hurts on third down is one thing. Holding down Patrick Mahomes on the must-win down in a must-win game for the Chiefs is quite another. And I will tell you that the story of this win from a Dallas perspective can be found in the 3rd down column below.


Not only did Dallas hold Mahomes to 5-for-13, but also, he started 3 of 5, so from about the end of the 2nd Quarter until the end of the game, the Matt Eberflus defense with tons of new personnel out there and definitely a new spirit of belief was able to put the Chiefs on a 2-8 run (25%) for the rest of the game. In a contest that was that slim of a margin, that is the difference.

How did they do it? We will dive in the film below, because each stop has a different story.


And each of those red squares above show a stretch in the game where Dallas forced punts on 5 of 6 Kansas City drives. During that stretch, the team flipped the score from 14-7, Chiefs, all the way to 31-21, Cowboys. That is a 24-7 run that made all the difference.

It almost looked like complimentary football!

Surviving A Mahomes Masterpiece


From our Morning After piece:
Patrick Mahomes had a sensational day and anytime he throws for four touchdowns and zero interceptions with a passer rating of 129.7, you assume his team is going to be in pretty good shape. According to Stathead, this is the 22nd time he has had a passer rating that good and he was 20-1 until yesterday. And he was 23-0 all time with a passer rating over 125 and 0 interceptions and again, he lost this game.
The thing about beating the Chiefs is that you expect you would need some takeaways or mistakes by the best QB since Tom Brady. Well, Dallas got neither of those things on Thursday and still survived it.

To show you how good Mahomes was – even though the film will do most of that trick – I wanted to see how many QBs in history have had days like this against the Cowboys. The search is 4 TDs or more and a pass rating of 125 or more.

We found 24 of them since 1960:


Dallas has a record of 2-22 now in these games and if you could name the 3 Green Bay QBs on this list without looking, you should write your own substack. Regardless, only Matt Ryan in the Watermelon kick game in 2020 lost to Dallas with that sort of performance before Mahomes did on Thursday.
Insane! 2-22.

NEXT GEN - MAHOMES vs DALLAS




He truly is everything they say he is. Surviving Sunday felt like Jordan scoring 58, but somehow you still beat the Bulls. That was quite a memorable one.
FILM STUDY

Let’s roll through a dozen plays here and take a look at the defense.

1Q - 13:10 - 1-10-DAL 27 - P.Mahomes pass short left to R.Rice for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

This is the Chiefs 2nd offensive snap and it goes for a TD on a way-too-easy concept that simply out-flanks the Cowboys zone with presnap motion and Rashee Rice is out the gate. Overshown gets blocked by Kelce and Shavon Revel simply must end this play but he gets caught by the other TE 12-Wiley. If that was Trevon Diggs, everyone would have lost their mind. Revel has to send him back inside no matter what. You can’t allow a TE to get outside you and to free up Rice’s path to the endzone but Dallas also has to shift to that motion and this is where LB play matters, too. Great design by KC, but this is pretty bad defense.

1Q - 2:53 - 3-14-DAL 25 - P.Mahomes scrambles left tackle to DAL 9 for 16 yards (D.Wilson).

3rd and forever and the Cowboys spy Mahomes with DeMarvion Overshown. Kenny Clark flushes Mahomes nicely and now you just need to tackle a guy they say isn’t that fast. Mahomes uses Creed Humphrey as an obstacle and Overshown gets faked and then somehow Mahomes runs away from him. This is just execution, of course, as the defensive design would love to have Overshown and Mahomes in a foot-race. But, that QB is slippery and we need Overshown to be able to make that play in space. Credit to the QB, of course. He does this every week.

1Q - 0:05 - 4-2-DAL 2 - P.Mahomes pass short middle to T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Speaking of doing it every week, here is a huge 4th down from the 2 and the Chiefs are going for it. You have to get pressure or you are cooked because if Mahomes can pick his matchup, you are probably not going to survive. He chooses the Kelce-Kenneth Murray matchup and Murray has no chance against a back shoulder throw that only is possible with those two guys doing what they do all of these years. It is a wonderfully executed play and I am not sure what you can do differently (double Kelce?) because Rashee Rice is another option on the slant and the Chiefs are so good down deep. I might try a full blitz just to speed it up, but we know he kills that, too.

2Q - 7:27 - 2-19-50 - P.Mahomes sacked at KC 43 for -7 yards (J.Clowney).

This is a 2nd and 19 sack for the Cowboys that essentially got them off the field in the 2nd Quarter. Looks like Cover 4 behind a 4-man rush and Mahomes has tons of time to throw, but it breaks down because A) Quinnen Williams is a beast, B) because Jadeveon Clowney doesn’t stop running, and C) I think Mahomes is blinded by the sun and decides to not risk a blind throw to avoid a sack. The sun got Mahomes and Pickens bad on this day, but, of course, we cannot use the curtains because that would not be stubborn enough for Jerry. At least this time, it helped the team.

3Q - 9:35 - 3-1-KC 46 - K.Hunt up the middle to KC 46 for no gain (Q.Williams; S.Williams).

Here is a nice 3rd down stop in the 3rd quarter on 3rd and 1. I just want to show you what a run defense looks like when you have Quinnen Williams wrecking stuff and the entire line caves in. Boy, this is fun. That is a run stuff.

3Q - 8:50 - 4-1-KC 46 - P.Mahomes pass short right to J.Wiley to 50 for 4 yards (K.Murray).

Next play it is now 4th and 1. This concept is the most unstoppable play in the NFL right now on short-yardage and goal-line situations. If you believe your QB can put the ball right where it needs to be, why would you ever run anything else than lining up in a power run and then this little quick slide-flat throw that out-flanks the defense long enough to get that yard or two. It is impossible to defend beyond just hoping they don’t complete it.

3Q - 3:28 - 2-9-KC 21 - P.Mahomes pass deep right to R.Rice pushed ob at KC 49 for 28 yards

This is some spectacular QB play as the Chiefs are 3x1 to the right with Rashee Rice playing the No. 3 spot (closest to the RT). Cowboys are in Cover 3 and therefore Rice can get lost inside and matchup with the safety 6-Wilson on what might be an over-route, but he actually breaks it back to the right corner instead. Meanwhile, Dante Fowler is winning against the right tackle, but allows Mahomes a huge area to escape to as Osa Odighizuwa tries to affect him out in the flat. Instead, Mahomes puts a perfect throw on Rice and the Chiefs have a big gainer. That throw was just a flick of the wrist on the run – special stuff.

4th Quarter time.

4Q - 14:56 - 4-3-DAL 3 - P.Mahomes pass short left to R.Rice for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

I know the kids will say I am going on and on about Mahomes, but forgive me. I don’t cover this guy every week and some of this stuff is incredible. Here he is running to his left and has Quinnen Williams chasing him. Somehow with Williams right there, he throws it across the body and past Quinnen’s ear right back to where Rashee Rice can make a play despite not really being open. On 4th down and with the game seeming to hang in the balance here in the 4th Quarter. Are you kidding me? He is a magician. I guess Reddy Steward could do better, but that is a special player.

4Q - 9:41 - 3-8-KC 41 - P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to R.Rice.

When we talk about how to win we are usually looking for a big sack or a big interception. But, this one also qualifies. This is arguably the single biggest play of the game in terms of who is going to win or lose. Dallas 28-21 and there is 9:41 to go. 3rd and 8 from KC 41 and this is still anyone’s game. But, a stop and Dallas will go up 2 scores. KC needs a play and they scheme up Rashee Rice wide open past the sticks and he simply drops it. Sometimes, you need a little luck and maybe luck is finally smiling on the Cowboys. The Chiefs will take that throw and catch every time. But, humans sometimes have bad drops. This was their guy, for once.
Now, Dallas is up 31-21.

4Q - 5:09 - 1-10-KC 33 - P.Mahomes sacked at KC 25 for -8 yards (J.Clowney).

First play of the next drive and I think this is the Cowboys “best pass rush DL” right now on defense. 41-92-97-42 would probably be my choice and just look at these guys flying around with the game on the line to try to close it down. Mahomes passes on the check-down to Kelce and he will pay for that. Clowney is a shell of his former self, but he definitely shows he still has it in him from time to time and this is very nicely done. Just be careful there at the end with making sure you don’t slam him too hard. The league frowns on that. I sort of kid.

4Q - 3:59 - 3-5-KC 38 - P.Mahomes pass deep middle to X.Worthy pushed ob at DAL 20 for 42 yards (D.Bland).

This is just insane. Arguably the Chiefs last 3rd down situation and Mahomes gets tons of pressure. Quinnen is there and Ezeiruaku is there. But, he stumbles free and at the same time, Donovan Wilson is chasing him and Reddy Steward clips him and falls, leaving Xavier Worthy all by himself deep. This is pure chaos and easily the Chiefs biggest play of the game. Also, the moment where we wondered what the next 4 minutes would hold.

4Q - 3:30 - 2-10-DAL 10 - P.Mahomes pass short middle to M.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Ezeiruaku].

Here is a dart throw to Hollywood Brown in the back of the end zone to draw within 31-28, but the reason for showing this is to show you Donovan Ezeiruaku’s great pass rush move. I do think they have a dude here and that is a great sign. 3 sacks for Dallas and they fought their tails off to hold Mahomes to 28.
Then the offense became the defense because Mahomes can’t kill you if you don’t let him touch the ball again. And that is what happened.

Heck of a win.

SPLASH PLAYS - VS Kansas City




I am pretty impressed with all of the run stuffs that live here now. That will be useful against Detroit, we imagine.


And the workload from Statbutler.com - Anxious to see what Trevon Diggs might do to get reinvolved because they are still pretty short in the secondary right now.


And we are now officially on to Detroit. Is the 3rd down defense fixed? Well, they are still ranked 32nd, but at 48.3%, they are no longer a candidate to be the worst ever and they can actually climb up to 31st or even 30th soon if this keeps up.

Stay tuned!
 
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