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DQ Report, Week 9: No Takeaway, No Take 1st Place
The Eagles put four long impressive drives together and secured the win.
BOB STURM
NOV 8, 2023
“We must make big plays to win this big game.” - Everyone
It may sound like one of the most common clichés in football, because it is. But, it is also pretty important information.
For Dan Quinn’s defense, it is fair to offer praise on most occasions. Week in and week out, they are the foundation of this entire operation and if the Dallas Cowboys are to climb any mountains, we assume it will be with the Cowboys defense doing more than half the work.
Saying that this team can go as far as the defense can take them does not seem ridiculous at all. They are a very talented group with all sorts of high-end investment. And most every week, they bring it.
Now, earlier in the season, we told you about one of their calling cards of dominance. It was the truth (at the time) that the defense “led the NFL in sacks and takeaways since the day Dan Quinn was hired.” That is an unbelievable accomplishment and it clearly gets people worked into a frenzy of anticipation. If they can lead the entire universe in those two most vital and related stats, there may be no stopping them now.
Unless….
Well, unless, when you need those takeaways the most, they disappear. It is sort of like depending on home runs or even 3-pointers to be your entire offense in other sports. It is all well and good until that night where you can’t find them anymore. Then what?
Well, apparently, you start losing. At least according to our records, where we can find nine games since 2021 when the Cowboys have had zero takeaways. They have won a few of them, but overall, they are a 3-6 (.333) team when the number is zero.
Considering that they are 26-7 in all games since 2021 in which they get at least one takeaway (.787), we can quickly see how this thing is built. Get the football, there is a 4-in-5 chance you win. Don’t get the football and it quickly turns into a 1-in-3 opportunity.
Amazing, right? Well, you will never guess which games had zeros so far this year:
Week 3 at Arizona and Week 9 at Philadelphia — 0-2. The trend continues.
“We must make big plays to win this big game.”
It isn’t so much blame, rather it is how this thing is built. The average NFL team has 55 takeaways since September of 2021, while the Cowboys have 80.
Eighty!
Nobody else is above 71 and no other NFC team is higher than 63. They are incredibly dominant in this most important metric. By the way, it wasn’t just Dan Quinn who arrived in September of 2021. It was Micah Parsons, too. I think we can discuss who is worth more, but we cannot admit that the entire hopes and dreams of the Dallas Cowboys organization appeared to have changed around there.
So, if they get the ball, they win. If they don’t get the ball, they are probably in trouble.
Here are the four times on Sunday that maybe the defense had a chance at the ball. There was one per quarter.
Q1 - 8:22 - 1st and 15 - Dal 39 - J.Hurts sacked at DAL 48 for -9 yards (S.Williams). FUMBLES (S.Williams), and recovers at DAL 47.
The Eagles very first drive. Here comes Sam Williams off the edge past Jordan Mailata for an easy sack on the blindside of Jalen Hurts. The ball comes out and before Williams can spot it, Jalen Hurts gets it back. Close! But, moments later, the Eagles get their first touchdown.
Q2 - 7:06 – 1st and 10 - DAL 10 - D.Swift right tackle to DAL 11 for -1 yards (M.Hooker). FUMBLES (M.Hooker), RECOVERED by DAL-M.Bell at DAL 10. M.Bell pushed ob at DAL 47 for 37 yards (J.Hurts). The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED.
Cowboys up 14-7. Eagles driving in and here is D’Andre Swift cutting it up inside and not finding any space. Malik Hooker knocks the ball loose and here is their big chance. But, upon review, the ball was recovered by Swift before Donovan Lewis pried it loose. Huge chance, but again, they couldn’t get on it. But, moments later, the Eagles get their second touchdown.
Q3 - 3:16 - 1st and 10 - DAL 41 - J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to A.Brown (D.Bland).
This one was scored a “turnover worthy play” by PFF which is basically code for throwing a pass into traffic that should have been interception. Now, that is easier said than done, but this is probably the one chance the Cowboys had on Sunday to pick off a pass. Triple coverage and Hurts is giving AJ Brown “a chance to go make a play” and it sort of looks like Stephon Gilmore could get to it if he turns the right direction, but again, I get it. Very difficult moment to try to get a takeaway. They don’t. Incomplete pass. Moments later, the Eagles get their fourth touchdown. You noticing a trend?
Q4 - 1:07 - 3rd and 7 - PHI 32 - D.Swift up the middle to PHI 30 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at PHI 31, recovered by PHI-T.Steen at PHI 31.
This last one in the fourth quarter is the killer. Here, trying to get a stop in the final minute, Philadelphia might have given the Cowboys a gift that would make Joe Pisarcik proud. Swift runs into the back of Brown and drops the ball to the ground. Micah Parsons is on the scene – you would choose no other man for this moment – and backup right guard Tyler Steen who had his back to the play actually ended up with the ball. In a parallel universe, Micah is Herm Edwards running it back to win the game and the irony of Eagles historians would have been infinite. Instead, the Cowboys went 0-for-4 in takeaway close calls.
And that is probably the story of this game from a defensive perspective. Otherwise, plenty went well and a lot did not. But, they played well enough to compete, but probably not well enough to win.
Those close calls came on Drives 1, 3, 6, and 9.
If you are curious, here is the record that tells the story about this era of the Cowboys:
TURNOVER MARGIN RECORDS, DALLAS ,2021-2023:
When +1 or better: 20-2, 91%
When Even: 5-4, 56%
When -1 or worse: 5-9, 36%
When you break it down like that, you understand why we need the defense to make a few plays each week. It is nearly undefeated.
You can live with a lot of what you had on Sunday from the defense, but it is a matter of the efficiency they allowed the Eagles. 50% on 3rd downs, 100% in the red zone, and 0 takeaways is a rough combination.
You can hold a team under 292, hold down AJ Brown, get sacks and limit big plays and still feel like the Eagles offense got plenty done. That is how these games can work sometimes.
JALEN HURTS NEXT GEN THROW CHART
Its weird. There just isn’t much on here. Hurts was really good, but he has 207 yards with a 20-yard push pass that traveled six inches. Below, I will show you his three “big time throws” and they were all pretty sweet. So, nobody is telling you he wasn’t really good. It is just a weird game to evaluate. The Eagles didn’t really run the ball that well and really didn’t get much done through the air.
How did they win this game? Its weird.
He is better than I thought he would be, that is for sure. And he has done a nice job of finding success vs zone or man. The Eagles scheme is tremendous and so much of what they get done offensively is from two sources: home run passes and coaching tactics. The rest is really not that amazing, but they know who they are and what they do. Until someone can consistently take away the home runs and the fourth down mastery, they should be pretty good for a while.
Quinn only blitzed 10 times, but honestly, nothing too remarkable was produced. And if you look at the passer ratings with each look, they keep Hurts in comfortable situations and he remains efficient. I have to admit it, Nick Sirianni knows what he is doing.
FILM STUDY
Q1 - 10:00 - 3rd and 6 - PHI 37 - J.Hurts pass short right to O.Zaccheaus to PHI 46 for 8 yards
Showing this play might be more of a commentary than an actual play review. When you lose Trevon Diggs, you try to compensate the best you can. But, everyone moves up a spot – not by promotion, but by necessity. It is football. So Stephon Gilmore is now your lead corner. Ok. DaRon Bland will move from the slot to the outside. Will that work? Actually, a lot better than we first thought. But, Jourdan Lewis moves from the bench to the slot and opponents do their homework. They know what I have said for years – as a corner, he does everything well but cover. Here, up top in the slot, you can see that the 3rd down plan is to attack Lewis, regardless who he is covering. In this case, it is Olamide Zaccheaus and he shakes Lewis with ease and gets to the sticks.
Q1 - 6:17 - 4th and 3 - DAL 27 - J.Hurts pass short right to D.Goedert ran ob at DAL 12 for 15 yards.
Imagine an organization that is so committed to his coach that he considers just going for it on every fourth down. He does that because he knows that he has the “mandate” to go do what you think and we aren’t going to call for your firing every time it doesn’t work. How empowering must that be? Well, Nick Sirianni is empowered, so he empowers his QB to go get it. He spies Jourdan Lewis on Dallas Goedert and even though Lewis is in a reasonable spot, this is Hurts first big time throw of the day and it is a beauty. Just awesome work by the Eagles against Cover 1-hole. Dallas even sends a pressure man, but it doesn’t matter. Hurts makes the play to make his coach right.
Q1 - 5:52 - 1st and 10 - DAL 12 - K.Gainwell right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the next play and it is a beautiful run play. Dallas seems to get fooled when they shift Gainwell from right to left. When they do, the Cowboys assignments on the zone read get confused and now Hooker and Parsons are both sitting on Hurts. I assume this is a Micah bust, but I could be wrong. Regardless, Hurts sees this and the moment he gives the ball he knows it is a touchdown because if two guys stay on the QB, now there are five defenders vs five blockers and Gainwell doesn’t have a tackler left. It is a touchdown based simply on math, so Hurts puts his hand in the air before it happens to make Steph Curry proud. Again, the Eagles are really well coached.
Q2 - 10:32 - 3rd and 9 - PHI 41 - J.Hurts pass deep right to D.Smith to DAL 40 for 19 yards
Stop me if you have heard this one; Jourdan Lewis and third down. It is Cover 2 here, but Hurts still knows where he is attacking. DeVonta Smith appears in a triangle of defenders and Hurts shows he is no bus driver. Big Time Throw No. 2 and the Eagles are moving again.
Q3 - 11:30 - 1st and 10 - DAL 29 - J.Hurts pass deep left to D.Smith for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Yes, DaRon Bland got beat on a stutter-and-go by Smith. But, there is no commentary here except this is why we take shot plays as a matter of habit. If a QB can put this ball in this spot, I would argue there is not a defensive back on the planet that can stop it. It is the unstoppable play. Perfect throw in every way.
Q3 - 3:08 - 2nd and 10 - DAL 41 - J.Hurts pass short left to D.Goedert to DAL 13 for 28 yards
Here is a nice way to drive a defense crazy, with the RPO with a slip to the TE. He can be a lead blocker and he can run vertically, but when he slips into the flat, his man has so much traffic to navigate. 14-Bell is in hot pursuit and finally gets him down – with a flying armbar that will knock Dallas Goedert out for a month – but the damage was done. Another offensive concept that puts so much pressure on a defense. I found a diagram here to show it to you:
So, here is three plays later. Tell me this isn’t pettiness from Sirianni after the Cowboys took out his tight end. He will end the drive with the same play.
Q3 - 1:18 - 2nd and Goal - DAL 4 - J.Hurts pass short left to A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Well, same concept, anyway. AJ Brown, go play the sniffer role at TE for Goedert. Damone Clark and Malik Hooker both see it but hesitate, so now Gilmore is trying to fight through the traffic across the field to try to stay with Brown. There is no chance and he walks in for the final touchdown. The Eagles are up 28-17 and their offensive work is likely all done.
Again, the Eagles didn’t have gaudy numbers, but the concepts gave Dallas fits. Maybe with a takeaway, it could have erased it all, but as you know, it did not.
We are now officially on to Sunday and the Giants.
The Eagles put four long impressive drives together and secured the win.
BOB STURM
NOV 8, 2023
“We must make big plays to win this big game.” - Everyone
It may sound like one of the most common clichés in football, because it is. But, it is also pretty important information.
For Dan Quinn’s defense, it is fair to offer praise on most occasions. Week in and week out, they are the foundation of this entire operation and if the Dallas Cowboys are to climb any mountains, we assume it will be with the Cowboys defense doing more than half the work.
Saying that this team can go as far as the defense can take them does not seem ridiculous at all. They are a very talented group with all sorts of high-end investment. And most every week, they bring it.
Now, earlier in the season, we told you about one of their calling cards of dominance. It was the truth (at the time) that the defense “led the NFL in sacks and takeaways since the day Dan Quinn was hired.” That is an unbelievable accomplishment and it clearly gets people worked into a frenzy of anticipation. If they can lead the entire universe in those two most vital and related stats, there may be no stopping them now.
Unless….
Well, unless, when you need those takeaways the most, they disappear. It is sort of like depending on home runs or even 3-pointers to be your entire offense in other sports. It is all well and good until that night where you can’t find them anymore. Then what?
Well, apparently, you start losing. At least according to our records, where we can find nine games since 2021 when the Cowboys have had zero takeaways. They have won a few of them, but overall, they are a 3-6 (.333) team when the number is zero.
Considering that they are 26-7 in all games since 2021 in which they get at least one takeaway (.787), we can quickly see how this thing is built. Get the football, there is a 4-in-5 chance you win. Don’t get the football and it quickly turns into a 1-in-3 opportunity.
Amazing, right? Well, you will never guess which games had zeros so far this year:
Week 3 at Arizona and Week 9 at Philadelphia — 0-2. The trend continues.
“We must make big plays to win this big game.”
It isn’t so much blame, rather it is how this thing is built. The average NFL team has 55 takeaways since September of 2021, while the Cowboys have 80.
Eighty!
Nobody else is above 71 and no other NFC team is higher than 63. They are incredibly dominant in this most important metric. By the way, it wasn’t just Dan Quinn who arrived in September of 2021. It was Micah Parsons, too. I think we can discuss who is worth more, but we cannot admit that the entire hopes and dreams of the Dallas Cowboys organization appeared to have changed around there.
So, if they get the ball, they win. If they don’t get the ball, they are probably in trouble.
Here are the four times on Sunday that maybe the defense had a chance at the ball. There was one per quarter.
Q1 - 8:22 - 1st and 15 - Dal 39 - J.Hurts sacked at DAL 48 for -9 yards (S.Williams). FUMBLES (S.Williams), and recovers at DAL 47.
The Eagles very first drive. Here comes Sam Williams off the edge past Jordan Mailata for an easy sack on the blindside of Jalen Hurts. The ball comes out and before Williams can spot it, Jalen Hurts gets it back. Close! But, moments later, the Eagles get their first touchdown.
Q2 - 7:06 – 1st and 10 - DAL 10 - D.Swift right tackle to DAL 11 for -1 yards (M.Hooker). FUMBLES (M.Hooker), RECOVERED by DAL-M.Bell at DAL 10. M.Bell pushed ob at DAL 47 for 37 yards (J.Hurts). The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED.
Cowboys up 14-7. Eagles driving in and here is D’Andre Swift cutting it up inside and not finding any space. Malik Hooker knocks the ball loose and here is their big chance. But, upon review, the ball was recovered by Swift before Donovan Lewis pried it loose. Huge chance, but again, they couldn’t get on it. But, moments later, the Eagles get their second touchdown.
Q3 - 3:16 - 1st and 10 - DAL 41 - J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to A.Brown (D.Bland).
This one was scored a “turnover worthy play” by PFF which is basically code for throwing a pass into traffic that should have been interception. Now, that is easier said than done, but this is probably the one chance the Cowboys had on Sunday to pick off a pass. Triple coverage and Hurts is giving AJ Brown “a chance to go make a play” and it sort of looks like Stephon Gilmore could get to it if he turns the right direction, but again, I get it. Very difficult moment to try to get a takeaway. They don’t. Incomplete pass. Moments later, the Eagles get their fourth touchdown. You noticing a trend?
Q4 - 1:07 - 3rd and 7 - PHI 32 - D.Swift up the middle to PHI 30 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at PHI 31, recovered by PHI-T.Steen at PHI 31.
This last one in the fourth quarter is the killer. Here, trying to get a stop in the final minute, Philadelphia might have given the Cowboys a gift that would make Joe Pisarcik proud. Swift runs into the back of Brown and drops the ball to the ground. Micah Parsons is on the scene – you would choose no other man for this moment – and backup right guard Tyler Steen who had his back to the play actually ended up with the ball. In a parallel universe, Micah is Herm Edwards running it back to win the game and the irony of Eagles historians would have been infinite. Instead, the Cowboys went 0-for-4 in takeaway close calls.
And that is probably the story of this game from a defensive perspective. Otherwise, plenty went well and a lot did not. But, they played well enough to compete, but probably not well enough to win.
Those close calls came on Drives 1, 3, 6, and 9.
If you are curious, here is the record that tells the story about this era of the Cowboys:
TURNOVER MARGIN RECORDS, DALLAS ,2021-2023:
When +1 or better: 20-2, 91%
When Even: 5-4, 56%
When -1 or worse: 5-9, 36%
When you break it down like that, you understand why we need the defense to make a few plays each week. It is nearly undefeated.
You can live with a lot of what you had on Sunday from the defense, but it is a matter of the efficiency they allowed the Eagles. 50% on 3rd downs, 100% in the red zone, and 0 takeaways is a rough combination.
You can hold a team under 292, hold down AJ Brown, get sacks and limit big plays and still feel like the Eagles offense got plenty done. That is how these games can work sometimes.
JALEN HURTS NEXT GEN THROW CHART
Its weird. There just isn’t much on here. Hurts was really good, but he has 207 yards with a 20-yard push pass that traveled six inches. Below, I will show you his three “big time throws” and they were all pretty sweet. So, nobody is telling you he wasn’t really good. It is just a weird game to evaluate. The Eagles didn’t really run the ball that well and really didn’t get much done through the air.
How did they win this game? Its weird.
He is better than I thought he would be, that is for sure. And he has done a nice job of finding success vs zone or man. The Eagles scheme is tremendous and so much of what they get done offensively is from two sources: home run passes and coaching tactics. The rest is really not that amazing, but they know who they are and what they do. Until someone can consistently take away the home runs and the fourth down mastery, they should be pretty good for a while.
Quinn only blitzed 10 times, but honestly, nothing too remarkable was produced. And if you look at the passer ratings with each look, they keep Hurts in comfortable situations and he remains efficient. I have to admit it, Nick Sirianni knows what he is doing.
FILM STUDY
Q1 - 10:00 - 3rd and 6 - PHI 37 - J.Hurts pass short right to O.Zaccheaus to PHI 46 for 8 yards
Showing this play might be more of a commentary than an actual play review. When you lose Trevon Diggs, you try to compensate the best you can. But, everyone moves up a spot – not by promotion, but by necessity. It is football. So Stephon Gilmore is now your lead corner. Ok. DaRon Bland will move from the slot to the outside. Will that work? Actually, a lot better than we first thought. But, Jourdan Lewis moves from the bench to the slot and opponents do their homework. They know what I have said for years – as a corner, he does everything well but cover. Here, up top in the slot, you can see that the 3rd down plan is to attack Lewis, regardless who he is covering. In this case, it is Olamide Zaccheaus and he shakes Lewis with ease and gets to the sticks.
Q1 - 6:17 - 4th and 3 - DAL 27 - J.Hurts pass short right to D.Goedert ran ob at DAL 12 for 15 yards.
Imagine an organization that is so committed to his coach that he considers just going for it on every fourth down. He does that because he knows that he has the “mandate” to go do what you think and we aren’t going to call for your firing every time it doesn’t work. How empowering must that be? Well, Nick Sirianni is empowered, so he empowers his QB to go get it. He spies Jourdan Lewis on Dallas Goedert and even though Lewis is in a reasonable spot, this is Hurts first big time throw of the day and it is a beauty. Just awesome work by the Eagles against Cover 1-hole. Dallas even sends a pressure man, but it doesn’t matter. Hurts makes the play to make his coach right.
Q1 - 5:52 - 1st and 10 - DAL 12 - K.Gainwell right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the next play and it is a beautiful run play. Dallas seems to get fooled when they shift Gainwell from right to left. When they do, the Cowboys assignments on the zone read get confused and now Hooker and Parsons are both sitting on Hurts. I assume this is a Micah bust, but I could be wrong. Regardless, Hurts sees this and the moment he gives the ball he knows it is a touchdown because if two guys stay on the QB, now there are five defenders vs five blockers and Gainwell doesn’t have a tackler left. It is a touchdown based simply on math, so Hurts puts his hand in the air before it happens to make Steph Curry proud. Again, the Eagles are really well coached.
Q2 - 10:32 - 3rd and 9 - PHI 41 - J.Hurts pass deep right to D.Smith to DAL 40 for 19 yards
Stop me if you have heard this one; Jourdan Lewis and third down. It is Cover 2 here, but Hurts still knows where he is attacking. DeVonta Smith appears in a triangle of defenders and Hurts shows he is no bus driver. Big Time Throw No. 2 and the Eagles are moving again.
Q3 - 11:30 - 1st and 10 - DAL 29 - J.Hurts pass deep left to D.Smith for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Yes, DaRon Bland got beat on a stutter-and-go by Smith. But, there is no commentary here except this is why we take shot plays as a matter of habit. If a QB can put this ball in this spot, I would argue there is not a defensive back on the planet that can stop it. It is the unstoppable play. Perfect throw in every way.
Q3 - 3:08 - 2nd and 10 - DAL 41 - J.Hurts pass short left to D.Goedert to DAL 13 for 28 yards
Here is a nice way to drive a defense crazy, with the RPO with a slip to the TE. He can be a lead blocker and he can run vertically, but when he slips into the flat, his man has so much traffic to navigate. 14-Bell is in hot pursuit and finally gets him down – with a flying armbar that will knock Dallas Goedert out for a month – but the damage was done. Another offensive concept that puts so much pressure on a defense. I found a diagram here to show it to you:
So, here is three plays later. Tell me this isn’t pettiness from Sirianni after the Cowboys took out his tight end. He will end the drive with the same play.
Q3 - 1:18 - 2nd and Goal - DAL 4 - J.Hurts pass short left to A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Well, same concept, anyway. AJ Brown, go play the sniffer role at TE for Goedert. Damone Clark and Malik Hooker both see it but hesitate, so now Gilmore is trying to fight through the traffic across the field to try to stay with Brown. There is no chance and he walks in for the final touchdown. The Eagles are up 28-17 and their offensive work is likely all done.
Again, the Eagles didn’t have gaudy numbers, but the concepts gave Dallas fits. Maybe with a takeaway, it could have erased it all, but as you know, it did not.
We are now officially on to Sunday and the Giants.
