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DQ Report, Week 16 - The Blown Save in Miami
Is Micah Parsons able to make the same impact in December as he always does?
BOB STURM
DEC 28, 2023
The Dallas Cowboys enter the final two weeks in the season with stories on both sides of the ball. Some are very positive and I hope my writing reflects the good that this team is offering and the reasons for optimism as they attempt to “do something in January” once again here in a few weeks time.
Granted, it would be far more rosy around here if we knew they could play home games, but in binge-watching Mike McDaniel in the Miami Dolphins’ Hard Knocks series this week, I really enjoyed his take on these matters regarding his team and the prospect of having to now play on the road in the playoffs after a recent bad loss to Tennessee.
"If that game forces us to go places and play football not here, so be it. Who gives a F—-? We are about getting to our best and that definitely was not it."
That is how I would describe the Cowboys defense right now. The Dallas offense will get the ink spilled and the segments burned, but honestly, my concerns about their work is far less than where this defense seems to be headed at the moment.
Let me be clear. We all think this defense is still “good.” Sure. But, we once – about six weeks ago, or so – thought this defense was close to “great,” and now, we are starting to see that might not be the case at all.
For years – almost all of Jason Garrett’s era – the Cowboys defense played a bend-but-don’t-break style that was safe and conservative. They did not generate many takeaways because that is unsafe to have corners jumping routes and even going for sacks might allow an escape route for a QB. Rod Marinelli was the architect of a defense that had 11 guys helping each-other and flying to the ball. It had its moments, for sure, but overall, it always seemed like it lacked the big moment and the big play.
Well, on Sunday, It sort of felt like we had a Rod Marinelli game plan and I wonder if there are some underlying issues that this defense is telling us.
They tried to bend-but-don’t break style and it almost worked. The Dolphins had nine drives on the day and were able to march into Dallas territory and scoring range (scoring range was anything inside the Dallas 40 as Jason Sanders was in the kicking zone and Miami needed every single one of them) on seven occasions. We can safely argue that the Cowboys only “won” two drives all day as you see below:
Now, it can also be argued that Dallas won way more than two by forcing so many field goals. How many teams would sign up for a performance where the mighty Miami Dolphins score one measly touchdown the entire day?
But, those five field goal dries and a sixth drive that ended in a failed 4th down attempt carried much of the day. Dallas was leaking yardage and 1st downs all over the field. The real killer – again - was zero takeaways.
This team cannot get takeaways on the road to save its life. In fact, they don’t really come close to them right now. If you were to list the “close calls” to getting the ball and setting up your offense with the rare short field, how many could you list from the defeats at Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Buffalo, or Miami?
One? Two? In five games, that seems out of character, but also, a trend that tells us maybe it isn’t out of character at all.
Above, see the blue-line that shows us the line of yardage allowed between 325-350. As a reminder, league average for yards in a game in 2023 is 332 yards. Dallas is allowing precisely 299.7 per game.
This number has always been significantly supplemented by takeaways. But now, with the league average sitting at 20.3 per team, Dallas has 21. They are not leading the league like they have been in 2021 and 2022. They are not getting the football out and teams are being far more careful against Dallas.
So, as you look at that chart above, notice the multi-takeaway games are plentiful below the line, but non-existent above the line. This is actually counter-intuitive, because historically, if you turn the ball over a lot, you play a portion of the game amassing garbage time stats that skew the numbers. But, we don’t see that here in 2023 at all. When Dallas can’t get the ball, they also are leaking big yardage.
Also notice how many of those games above the line are happening in the last month. Weeks 12, 13, 15, and 16 was a predictable rough patch, but, you would sure love to see one of those nice five-sack, three-takeaway games now, right?
So, the Cowboys allowed 375 yards of offense to Miami, got zero turnovers, and only one sack – yet, they feel pretty good about their performance. In light of how the Buffalo game went, I get it. But, let’s not kid ourselves. This was not anything approaching a great defense on Sunday.
Now, let me delicately approach this subject that feels related. I realize that there are two athletes in this city that are above all others right now – Luka Dončić and Micah Parsons – and we are very blessed to have them both. I also realize that there is no better way to anger the masses than to ever say anything remotely negative about either, but I gotta be me.
If we are going to discuss the premise that the Dallas defense seems to be fading a bit as the season wears on, we might have to also discuss that this has happened for three straight seasons.
And if we are going to do that, it might be time to publish what has been in my head all three years – the belief that Micah Parsons wears down as the year goes along.
Now, everyone wears down as the season goes along, right? But, does someone who plays with his intensity and at his size walk that tight rope more? Also, does insisting on playing as much as possible as often as possible add to that?
I have no idea.
But, what I do know is that for three straight seasons, he has looked like a potential NFL Defensive Player of the Year in November, only to have that campaign all but dead when the season ends.
My graphics man Alex Garrison put together this visual aid to tell the story:
Now, splashes are not the end-all, be-all. But, I think you can tell this story in many different ways. Parsons did get his 100th splash this past weekend in his 48th game for an average of 2.1 per game. That is remarkable. But, it is difficult to ignore how each of his three Decembers have all been really quiet.
Yes, I know, he needs more holdings called in his favor, but I also wonder if he wears down more than he would like as the year goes along.
I don’t have solutions here because I don’t know what would make sense, just thought you should see the data and the story it tells us.
So, the Cowboys defensively weren’t bad. But, they also weren’t good. They did some things well, but like we said yesterday, sometimes, in games like these against opponents like that, good isn’t good enough.
So, let’s be more specific in what we saw on Sunday that led to Dallas giving up too many third downs – we are looking for 40% or less (NFL Average: 38.9%) and obviously just one sack and zero takeaways.
Miami gets the ball out fast. Really fast. They do this because of all of the motion and speed that they utilize and then they bang the same concepts in different ways, over and over again. Yesterday, we discussed the question of whether defenses “do what they do” or should they alter things based specifically for an opponent.
Well, we saw the answer. Dan Quinn played less Cover 1 (man with a single high safety) than in any other game he has coached in Dallas. That is 52 games in total, so this was the 52nd most Cover 1 in any game so far. I think they saw quickly they don’t have the wheels to play man against these dudes.
That also meant the most zone coverage of any game in 2023. Dallas is a huge man coverage team, but against Miami, they were pretty much out of that business very early in the proceedings.
TUA TAGOVAILOA THROW CHART
I love this about the Kyle Shanahan offense which is now in Miami and Houston, too. This is the throw inside the red squares that his QBs must be able to make. Yes, they will throw it deep some and to the flats plenty, but the simplicity of this offense is they pound that throw over and over again.
I think it is a lot like an NBA offense that “gets to its spots” for offense, but it is also why some of us credit the scheme more than the QB. There is nothing too complex for a QB when the architect has built out the talent at each spot properly. From there, you are playing point guard and ripping the ball where it needs to be.
People get frustrated because I have not crowned Brock Purdy as the king of the QB world, but I think he is blessed by his location. If there is a league MVP award to be given, I think it has to go to Shanahan and McDaniel for basically figuring out a way to make Matt Schaub and Jimmy Garoppolo into the very best versions of themselves like they are now with Purdy and Tagovailoa. That is a coach’s job, right? Make your players play their best?
SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 16
I have to give Jourdan Lewis plenty of credit here. When these games need a DB with sandpaper, Lewis is always around giving you what he has. He wasn’t perfect and had an impossible assignment on that last third down, but he was pretty solid.
Much of that conclusion of disappointment from the defense comes back to the “blown save” stat I have been tracking (Basically, a defense has to get a stop on one drive with the lead and the game on the line). If Dallas rolls into that final possession and wins that one drive – maybe a nice 3-and-out – then Dak Prescott might be your league MVP, Micah Parsons is pushing for Defensive Player of the Year, and Dallas might be in a spot to still win their division.
Alas, Miami encountered almost no resistance whatsoever and the most difficult situation they were put in was a 3rd-and-3 (which we will look at below). It was not close to a successful save conversion for the defense. It was their first blown save of the year in three chances:
Ok, on to our film study and since it is Thursday, I am going to limit it to a half-dozen or so, because we better get busy with Detroit here.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 6:37 - 2nd and 4 - MIA 8 - T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to T.Hill [M.Parsons].
Ok, So this is what Miami does to you with their late short motion. All you have to do is see that last player - the fullback Alec Ingold will motion behind Tyreek Hill and the sole purpose is to put your corner (DaRon Bland) in a small mental puzzle to sort when the play is happening. Cowboys are in Cover 3 so obviously, Hill has everyone on red alert. But, that motion is to hold the corner there and allow Tyreek to get to the safety. If the Cowboys are in single-high, a safety has no chance. Does it fool Bland? Not really. But, Hill doesn’t need much at all. This is literally their first pass of the game and they are at their own 8-yard line. The amount of intent and fear from this one call is felt all game long. It probably is a 92-yard touchdown most weeks.
1Q - 6:32 - 3rd and 9 - MIA 3 - T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to J.Waddle ran ob at DAL 47 for 50 yards.
So, a delay of game penalty later, this is the next play. Now, they are at their own 3 and it is third-and-long. Cover 4 is the call, but as you can see, both Cowboys safeties are chasing Tyreek Hill around. So, Tua sees that it is Jaylen Waddle versus Stephon Gilmore over the top and they will take a shot every time. They get 50 yards and their biggest play of the game. Folks, it takes stones to call this on 3rd and long from your own end zone against the Cowboys pass rush. Dallas must get to the QB here and they don’t. These are the margins right now.
2Q - 0:21 - 1st and Goal - DAL 4 - T.Tagovailoa pass short left to R.Mostert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Late 1st half and this is the Dolphins only touchdown, but it is a beauty. Cowboys are trying to play man here and it even looks like some form of Cover 0. The Dolphins are just screwing with the coverage here as they destroy your man coverage in the red zone with all manner of rubs and picks and crossers. Everyone on the left is going right and everyone on the right is going left. 11-Cedrick Wilson is with Gilmore and the RB Raheem Mostert’s man is 1-Jayron Kearse. You might need to watch this a few times to see Gilmore is on the ground and therefore Kearse is actually by Gilmore’s man and nobody has the RB who’s presnap motion caused all sorts of confusion. Holy cow. They are good at this stuff.
4Q - 11:48 - 3rd and 8 - MIA 27 - T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 18 for -9 yards (sack split by D.Armstrong and M.Parsons).
The defense did get a big stand in the fourth quarter early – which is why I thought they could do it again late. Here is a 3rd and 8 and the Cowboys 4-man rush collapses the pocket and Dorance Armstrong and Micah Parsons both get home at the same time. I know this is like calling the touchdown play, but this is the identity of the Dallas defense. The problem is we see it so rarely these days. Great job from the front 4 to collapse the pocket and to get the QB to brace for impact as his eyes drop to preserve his health.
On to the final drive and the save situation…
4Q - 3:27 - 1st and 10 - MIA 25 - D.Achane right end to MIA 31 for 6 yards (D.Clark).
PENALTY on DAL-D.Clark, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 31.
First play of the drive and frankly, if we are going to climb on Hunter Luepke and Chuma Edoga for mental busts, we must do the same to Damone Clark. I am not saying tackling is easy, but in this spot, Devon Achane is not going anywhere. You have numbers. To have your hand anywhere near his facemask is reckless and nearly takes them from their own 25 to midfield in one moment. It is a 6-yard gain that becomes 21-yards when you need a stop the most. Cannot do it. Huge.
4Q - 2:00 - 3rd and 3 - DAL 33 - T.Tagovailoa pass short left to T.Hill to DAL 23 for 10 yards (J.Kearse).
If I may borrow from the Morning After column, here is my description of this huge 3rd and 3 from Sunday Night:
4Q - 1:53 - 1st and 10 - DAL 23 - J.Wilson right end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (M.Hooker, S.Gilmore).
Finally, the Cowboys are now cycling through their timeouts and this is the very last chance to get a stop and hopefully save a minute for an offensive response. But, that dies when you give up 8 yards on 1st and 10 when you know they are running the ball. 65-Robert Hunt the Dolphins RG holds Clark so badly it almost seems like he is testing the refs to see what it might take to get a flag. Call this and it is 1st and 20 and you actually still have a real chance. Don’t call it and we are here today wondering if the Cowboys will ever have a flag assist them.
That’s it for today. We are on to Detroit.
Is Micah Parsons able to make the same impact in December as he always does?
BOB STURM
DEC 28, 2023
The Dallas Cowboys enter the final two weeks in the season with stories on both sides of the ball. Some are very positive and I hope my writing reflects the good that this team is offering and the reasons for optimism as they attempt to “do something in January” once again here in a few weeks time.
Granted, it would be far more rosy around here if we knew they could play home games, but in binge-watching Mike McDaniel in the Miami Dolphins’ Hard Knocks series this week, I really enjoyed his take on these matters regarding his team and the prospect of having to now play on the road in the playoffs after a recent bad loss to Tennessee.
"If that game forces us to go places and play football not here, so be it. Who gives a F—-? We are about getting to our best and that definitely was not it."
That is how I would describe the Cowboys defense right now. The Dallas offense will get the ink spilled and the segments burned, but honestly, my concerns about their work is far less than where this defense seems to be headed at the moment.
Let me be clear. We all think this defense is still “good.” Sure. But, we once – about six weeks ago, or so – thought this defense was close to “great,” and now, we are starting to see that might not be the case at all.
For years – almost all of Jason Garrett’s era – the Cowboys defense played a bend-but-don’t-break style that was safe and conservative. They did not generate many takeaways because that is unsafe to have corners jumping routes and even going for sacks might allow an escape route for a QB. Rod Marinelli was the architect of a defense that had 11 guys helping each-other and flying to the ball. It had its moments, for sure, but overall, it always seemed like it lacked the big moment and the big play.
Well, on Sunday, It sort of felt like we had a Rod Marinelli game plan and I wonder if there are some underlying issues that this defense is telling us.
They tried to bend-but-don’t break style and it almost worked. The Dolphins had nine drives on the day and were able to march into Dallas territory and scoring range (scoring range was anything inside the Dallas 40 as Jason Sanders was in the kicking zone and Miami needed every single one of them) on seven occasions. We can safely argue that the Cowboys only “won” two drives all day as you see below:
Now, it can also be argued that Dallas won way more than two by forcing so many field goals. How many teams would sign up for a performance where the mighty Miami Dolphins score one measly touchdown the entire day?
But, those five field goal dries and a sixth drive that ended in a failed 4th down attempt carried much of the day. Dallas was leaking yardage and 1st downs all over the field. The real killer – again - was zero takeaways.
This team cannot get takeaways on the road to save its life. In fact, they don’t really come close to them right now. If you were to list the “close calls” to getting the ball and setting up your offense with the rare short field, how many could you list from the defeats at Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Buffalo, or Miami?
One? Two? In five games, that seems out of character, but also, a trend that tells us maybe it isn’t out of character at all.
Above, see the blue-line that shows us the line of yardage allowed between 325-350. As a reminder, league average for yards in a game in 2023 is 332 yards. Dallas is allowing precisely 299.7 per game.
This number has always been significantly supplemented by takeaways. But now, with the league average sitting at 20.3 per team, Dallas has 21. They are not leading the league like they have been in 2021 and 2022. They are not getting the football out and teams are being far more careful against Dallas.
So, as you look at that chart above, notice the multi-takeaway games are plentiful below the line, but non-existent above the line. This is actually counter-intuitive, because historically, if you turn the ball over a lot, you play a portion of the game amassing garbage time stats that skew the numbers. But, we don’t see that here in 2023 at all. When Dallas can’t get the ball, they also are leaking big yardage.
Also notice how many of those games above the line are happening in the last month. Weeks 12, 13, 15, and 16 was a predictable rough patch, but, you would sure love to see one of those nice five-sack, three-takeaway games now, right?
So, the Cowboys allowed 375 yards of offense to Miami, got zero turnovers, and only one sack – yet, they feel pretty good about their performance. In light of how the Buffalo game went, I get it. But, let’s not kid ourselves. This was not anything approaching a great defense on Sunday.
Now, let me delicately approach this subject that feels related. I realize that there are two athletes in this city that are above all others right now – Luka Dončić and Micah Parsons – and we are very blessed to have them both. I also realize that there is no better way to anger the masses than to ever say anything remotely negative about either, but I gotta be me.
If we are going to discuss the premise that the Dallas defense seems to be fading a bit as the season wears on, we might have to also discuss that this has happened for three straight seasons.
And if we are going to do that, it might be time to publish what has been in my head all three years – the belief that Micah Parsons wears down as the year goes along.
Now, everyone wears down as the season goes along, right? But, does someone who plays with his intensity and at his size walk that tight rope more? Also, does insisting on playing as much as possible as often as possible add to that?
I have no idea.
But, what I do know is that for three straight seasons, he has looked like a potential NFL Defensive Player of the Year in November, only to have that campaign all but dead when the season ends.
My graphics man Alex Garrison put together this visual aid to tell the story:
Now, splashes are not the end-all, be-all. But, I think you can tell this story in many different ways. Parsons did get his 100th splash this past weekend in his 48th game for an average of 2.1 per game. That is remarkable. But, it is difficult to ignore how each of his three Decembers have all been really quiet.
Yes, I know, he needs more holdings called in his favor, but I also wonder if he wears down more than he would like as the year goes along.
I don’t have solutions here because I don’t know what would make sense, just thought you should see the data and the story it tells us.
So, the Cowboys defensively weren’t bad. But, they also weren’t good. They did some things well, but like we said yesterday, sometimes, in games like these against opponents like that, good isn’t good enough.
So, let’s be more specific in what we saw on Sunday that led to Dallas giving up too many third downs – we are looking for 40% or less (NFL Average: 38.9%) and obviously just one sack and zero takeaways.
Miami gets the ball out fast. Really fast. They do this because of all of the motion and speed that they utilize and then they bang the same concepts in different ways, over and over again. Yesterday, we discussed the question of whether defenses “do what they do” or should they alter things based specifically for an opponent.
Well, we saw the answer. Dan Quinn played less Cover 1 (man with a single high safety) than in any other game he has coached in Dallas. That is 52 games in total, so this was the 52nd most Cover 1 in any game so far. I think they saw quickly they don’t have the wheels to play man against these dudes.
That also meant the most zone coverage of any game in 2023. Dallas is a huge man coverage team, but against Miami, they were pretty much out of that business very early in the proceedings.
TUA TAGOVAILOA THROW CHART
I love this about the Kyle Shanahan offense which is now in Miami and Houston, too. This is the throw inside the red squares that his QBs must be able to make. Yes, they will throw it deep some and to the flats plenty, but the simplicity of this offense is they pound that throw over and over again.
I think it is a lot like an NBA offense that “gets to its spots” for offense, but it is also why some of us credit the scheme more than the QB. There is nothing too complex for a QB when the architect has built out the talent at each spot properly. From there, you are playing point guard and ripping the ball where it needs to be.
People get frustrated because I have not crowned Brock Purdy as the king of the QB world, but I think he is blessed by his location. If there is a league MVP award to be given, I think it has to go to Shanahan and McDaniel for basically figuring out a way to make Matt Schaub and Jimmy Garoppolo into the very best versions of themselves like they are now with Purdy and Tagovailoa. That is a coach’s job, right? Make your players play their best?
SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 16
I have to give Jourdan Lewis plenty of credit here. When these games need a DB with sandpaper, Lewis is always around giving you what he has. He wasn’t perfect and had an impossible assignment on that last third down, but he was pretty solid.
Much of that conclusion of disappointment from the defense comes back to the “blown save” stat I have been tracking (Basically, a defense has to get a stop on one drive with the lead and the game on the line). If Dallas rolls into that final possession and wins that one drive – maybe a nice 3-and-out – then Dak Prescott might be your league MVP, Micah Parsons is pushing for Defensive Player of the Year, and Dallas might be in a spot to still win their division.
Alas, Miami encountered almost no resistance whatsoever and the most difficult situation they were put in was a 3rd-and-3 (which we will look at below). It was not close to a successful save conversion for the defense. It was their first blown save of the year in three chances:
Ok, on to our film study and since it is Thursday, I am going to limit it to a half-dozen or so, because we better get busy with Detroit here.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 6:37 - 2nd and 4 - MIA 8 - T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to T.Hill [M.Parsons].
Ok, So this is what Miami does to you with their late short motion. All you have to do is see that last player - the fullback Alec Ingold will motion behind Tyreek Hill and the sole purpose is to put your corner (DaRon Bland) in a small mental puzzle to sort when the play is happening. Cowboys are in Cover 3 so obviously, Hill has everyone on red alert. But, that motion is to hold the corner there and allow Tyreek to get to the safety. If the Cowboys are in single-high, a safety has no chance. Does it fool Bland? Not really. But, Hill doesn’t need much at all. This is literally their first pass of the game and they are at their own 8-yard line. The amount of intent and fear from this one call is felt all game long. It probably is a 92-yard touchdown most weeks.
1Q - 6:32 - 3rd and 9 - MIA 3 - T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to J.Waddle ran ob at DAL 47 for 50 yards.
So, a delay of game penalty later, this is the next play. Now, they are at their own 3 and it is third-and-long. Cover 4 is the call, but as you can see, both Cowboys safeties are chasing Tyreek Hill around. So, Tua sees that it is Jaylen Waddle versus Stephon Gilmore over the top and they will take a shot every time. They get 50 yards and their biggest play of the game. Folks, it takes stones to call this on 3rd and long from your own end zone against the Cowboys pass rush. Dallas must get to the QB here and they don’t. These are the margins right now.
2Q - 0:21 - 1st and Goal - DAL 4 - T.Tagovailoa pass short left to R.Mostert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Late 1st half and this is the Dolphins only touchdown, but it is a beauty. Cowboys are trying to play man here and it even looks like some form of Cover 0. The Dolphins are just screwing with the coverage here as they destroy your man coverage in the red zone with all manner of rubs and picks and crossers. Everyone on the left is going right and everyone on the right is going left. 11-Cedrick Wilson is with Gilmore and the RB Raheem Mostert’s man is 1-Jayron Kearse. You might need to watch this a few times to see Gilmore is on the ground and therefore Kearse is actually by Gilmore’s man and nobody has the RB who’s presnap motion caused all sorts of confusion. Holy cow. They are good at this stuff.
4Q - 11:48 - 3rd and 8 - MIA 27 - T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 18 for -9 yards (sack split by D.Armstrong and M.Parsons).
The defense did get a big stand in the fourth quarter early – which is why I thought they could do it again late. Here is a 3rd and 8 and the Cowboys 4-man rush collapses the pocket and Dorance Armstrong and Micah Parsons both get home at the same time. I know this is like calling the touchdown play, but this is the identity of the Dallas defense. The problem is we see it so rarely these days. Great job from the front 4 to collapse the pocket and to get the QB to brace for impact as his eyes drop to preserve his health.
On to the final drive and the save situation…
4Q - 3:27 - 1st and 10 - MIA 25 - D.Achane right end to MIA 31 for 6 yards (D.Clark).
PENALTY on DAL-D.Clark, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 31.
First play of the drive and frankly, if we are going to climb on Hunter Luepke and Chuma Edoga for mental busts, we must do the same to Damone Clark. I am not saying tackling is easy, but in this spot, Devon Achane is not going anywhere. You have numbers. To have your hand anywhere near his facemask is reckless and nearly takes them from their own 25 to midfield in one moment. It is a 6-yard gain that becomes 21-yards when you need a stop the most. Cannot do it. Huge.
4Q - 2:00 - 3rd and 3 - DAL 33 - T.Tagovailoa pass short left to T.Hill to DAL 23 for 10 yards (J.Kearse).
If I may borrow from the Morning After column, here is my description of this huge 3rd and 3 from Sunday Night:
That speed is just insane.
4Q - 1:53 - 1st and 10 - DAL 23 - J.Wilson right end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (M.Hooker, S.Gilmore).
Finally, the Cowboys are now cycling through their timeouts and this is the very last chance to get a stop and hopefully save a minute for an offensive response. But, that dies when you give up 8 yards on 1st and 10 when you know they are running the ball. 65-Robert Hunt the Dolphins RG holds Clark so badly it almost seems like he is testing the refs to see what it might take to get a flag. Call this and it is 1st and 20 and you actually still have a real chance. Don’t call it and we are here today wondering if the Cowboys will ever have a flag assist them.
That’s it for today. We are on to Detroit.
