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Decoding Week 9, Four Drives in the Fourth Quarter
To win on the road against the NFC Champions, Dallas needed just one more play.
BOB STURM
NOV 7, 2023
Each Tuesday we attempt to evaluate the offense independently of the entire fabric of the game. They can only take care of their business and if they do it well and the team loses, they can still be evaluated positively. On the other hand, you can win a game and still think the offense can do much better.
So, we don’t want to simply look at the scoreboard to write out the report card. That isn’t how this should work, because more than week-to-week success, we are attempting to witness a team build itself into a much greater version of itself by season end. Great theory on paper, but it is wonderful when you see a team evolve.
In this edition of Decoding McCarthy, I will submit that the Cowboys lost the battle on Sunday, but appear to be winning the war more often on offense.
First, the bad news.
Dallas had the ball four times in the fourth quarter inside the Eagles 30-yard line. At the time the quarter began, they trailed, 28-17. There certainly was no way to know that the Eagles would not score again, but they did not. The bitter pill to swallow, knowing that, would be that if the Cowboys just kicked a field goal each time, they would have conceivably won, 29-28.
Instead:
– Fourth quarter drive No. 1: Turned the ball over on downs at the goal-line after Luke Schoonmaker was touched down just short of the goal. 0/1
– Fourth quarter drive No. 2: Scored a touchdown but then failed on a 2-point conversion when Dak Prescott stepped on the sideline. 1/2
– Fourth quarter drive No. 3: Turned the ball over on downs on an incomplete pass to Jalen Tolbert. 1/3
– Fourth drive No. 4: Fumbled at the 2-yard line as CeeDee Lamb struggled for the end zone in desperation. 1/4
There are plenty of details that will tell us nice things about the performance and there are more than a few encouraging signs to take from the experience. But, let’s not get this twisted. You have four opportunities where you cross from your territory into theirs and then work you way easily into scoring range. On three of the four trips, you even trundle inside their 10-yard line. And you pull just six points out of a possible 28.
That will lose you games which will lose you much more than that.
The Cowboys offense is now clicking pretty well. They have recently discovered how best to attack and have their “best players” playing like their best players on offense and that is a great spot to be in.
But, they cannot waste that many opportunities when the stakes are high. In some ways, you might find that more frustrating than going to San Francisco and demonstrating you could not do anything. In this game, you could do plenty – including march up and down the field against a vulnerable defense – but, you just couldn’t reward yourself for your hard work.
But, let’s talk about the “why” now.
The Cowboys have had some days where they couldn’t block their opponent. Week 10 of 2017 is usually what every fan remembers. That day was the Chaz Green game where the Cowboys had two backup left tackles trying to fill in for Tyron Smith. It went horribly wrong and appeared to concuss Prescott with all of the beating he took.
On that day in 2017, PFF charged Chaz Green with 7 QB pressures that resulted in 4 sacks. He was replaced by Byron Bell who gave up 4 QB pressures for 2 more sacks.
So, in total, that horrendous day was 11 QB pressures from spot on the line.
Sunday, the right tackle position was playing its newly extended starter, Terence Steele and he allowed 12 QB pressures.
I think we can all clearly agree that Steele must be playing hurt. We admire toughness, but on the heels of being able to block nobody in pass-pro in San Francisco, this was even worse. Here is a reel of the 12 times he was docked by PFF – it is nearly 2 minutes in length:
Notice how often Dak fixes it for him and even delivers a beautiful pass out of the mess. The only reason why Chaz Green gave up so many more sacks than Steele is because QB1 was able to fix it in this situation.
I am not sure the answer here – well, I am, but I also know this organization would never bench a player they just signed for $86 million – so, then people will just tell the Cowboys to plan for it and always leave help for him. That is a fun barroom solution, but I can assure you, you do not want to have to help a player every play when you are already trying to get your offense going against a contender in a loud stadium. You need 11 warriors who are able to band together and stand up for themselves across the board. The entire line was good enough on Sunday to win, aside from right tackle. In a “weak link” sport, this sort of thing can compromise the entire operation.
I submit it did on Sunday – and most of his issues were in the fourth quarter.
Anyway, I don’t think we can write this weekly review without explaining the uncomfortable truth here. Great dude and heck of a player for sure, but Terence Steele killed them on Sunday with his inability to block anything and it won’t get much better until he does. They might want to consider a stint on the IR during this softer spell in the schedule (they usually won’t even consider that) to get him back as healthy as possible for December.
Above, we see a lot of good things, but the end product (23 points) was too low for 400 yards of offense. We know that 400 needs to be 28 points or better and we also know that is what it would have taken to win.
Inefficiency has many reasons and we will continue to examine in the film review. But, first, I think it is important to recognize that Dak Prescott just played one of the very best games of his career.
Like teams, Quarterbacks can sometimes have their most valiant performances in a loss. There are things you cannot control and other things that you might have got slightly wrong, but overall, for three hours in hostility, Prescott was the very best version of himself. He hardly missed a target all day and also bravely navigated physical punishment to try to make plays. They can win it all with this version of him.
NEXT GEN THROW CHART - DAK PRESCOTT
Everything Philadelphia tried, he was ready for. He destroyed their man coverage (as usual) and their zone coverage (better than ever before). He ran when he could to free up opportunities and even tried to jump into the end zone when it wasn’t there.
I took some issue with his 2-point conversion step out of bounds because so much was at stake. But, given all of the criticism he deals with every time he takes the field, I don’t think there should be anyone speaking up very loudly about what their QB1 just did in Philadelphia. If you are someone looking forward to replacing him soon, maybe take this week off.
And again, the magic that CeeDee Lamb is proving capable of is why people should be pretty optimistic about 2023.
NEXT GEN - CEEDEE LAMB
Lamb was upset earlier in the year because he wasn’t getting the ball enough. I was quick to tell him to keep his composure in this space (which he surely doesn’t read, lol) and he has been proven to be correct. The main reason why we are excited about this offense right now is that nobody can deal with Lamb since they left San Francisco.
Look at his production soar. They have a real chance to do damage when you can get half of your yardage by throwing it to one guy and your opponent has no idea what to do. The Eagles are short of talent in the secondary and they know it this week.
Again, I don’t want to spend too much time on the personnel groupings this week, but it is worth checking in on the multiple TE formations that exist to “run the ball” with intent. They had 12 snaps with either a FB or multiple TE’s or both. 12 snaps that found them 32 yards total. Of all of the things they have tried to do this year, this is one that they continue to be poor at. Eight runs in these sets for 17 yards.
Ok, I have picked out nine plays that are important to this game, so let’s get to it before I turn this into a full book. It was a remarkable game for sure.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 2:28 - 4th and 1 - PHI 33 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb to PHI 4 for 29 yards.
This first one is fourth down. They use Lamb in the slot in motion to confirm man coverage and lock him in with undrafted rookie Eli Ricks. Ricks is a talented kid from LSU and Alabama but he hasn’t dealt with Lamb until this game. Here, Prescott has multiple tasty options as Gallup has Bradberry stacked for a touchdown on the bottom of the screen and Lamb is over Ricks from the slot. Prescott is wise to always give Lamb the ball when in doubt and he nearly scores. A massive statement from the Cowboys offense here.
2Q - 12:31 - 3rd and 14 - PHI 38 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb pushed ob at PHI 18 for 20 yards
This is 3rd and 14 and a big loss for Steele at RT. Also here, you can see with two-high that Jalen Tolbert is in the slot and immediately wins against a LB. I submit in future weeks, if someone else tries it, the Cowboys will be feeding that. If it wasn’t 3rd down, he might get the ball here, but Prescott is clearly locked on Lamb a bit in these matchups because he is being covered again by Ricks. 2-Man is the coverage, so Lamb will win, the question is whether Prescott can stay alive enough. Great pass on the run and the Cowboys convert a tough one here. Great job.
2Q - 11:21 - 3rd and 5 - D.Prescott pass short left to K.Turpin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
A few plays later they finish it off with a 5-across empty formation that basically finds the matchup you like most because nobody is playing zone at the 5-yard line in this situation. You isolate 21-Sydney Brown against tiny Turpin and go get your touchdown. Again, the Eagles know they don’t have enough weapons on the back end and that is why pass pressure is their only path to defensive competence against a passing team. Also why I wasn’t worried about establishing the run here.
2Q - 1:25 - 3rd and 3 - PHI 33 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to M.Gallup.
This was late in the second quarter when Dallas had to make a decision to kick a long field goal. The play before was this 3rd and 3 and here you learn why Dak will lock in on Lamb on these situations. Because other guys let him down. This is a perfect mesh and a wide open receiver past the sticks….who is not looking for the ball. I have no idea what is going on with Michael Gallup, but this is not very good.
Let’s get to that fourth quarter.
4Q - 10:10 - 4th and 1 - PHI 1 - D.Prescott pass short left to L.Schoonmaker to PHI 1 for no gain
This one is a huge fourth down. It would probably be great to have a run or even a sneak you like from here, but it was always going to be a pass. Two similar rub route schemes to get the 2nd guy open because your primaries are the main coverage magnets. We will use Lamb – who they are worried about – to free up Cooks to the right and Ferguson – same worries – to free up Schoonmaker. Dak is looking left the whole way and it is because he cannot block the LB (41-Cunningham) here if he blitzes, but if he doesn’t, he can get in the passing lane to the right and break up a play to Cooks. So, Prescott properly picks Schoonmaker up top and Ferguson must get a better piece of 32-Blankenship. You know by now that it was called a touchdown and reviewed back to being short. No call on the contact and no feeling that this will be their night.
4Q - 1:22 - 4th and 8 - PHI 29 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to J.Tolbert (J.Bradberry).
Here is another play that is being talked about because Jake Ferguson looks wide open right over the middle when Prescott is throwing to Tolbert. First, I want to say that the throw to Tolbert is fine and the contact from Bradberry will be called most times. But, back to Ferguson being wide open against 52-Cunningham again, is a bit misleading. Dak wants Lamb on this 4th and 8, but the Eagles have him bracketed. When you come off your primary, you are taught to go to the isolated X receiver next, because you don’t have time to survey the field in this spot. He is one-on-one and it is a clean look and you throw it where he can make a play. Yes, if Dak could pause the game and see Ferguson, then he would have thrown there, but this is actually fine QB work and the throw is where it needs to be. In a year, Tolbert wins that with physicality, but here, he probably deserved a call for Bradberry being in his back. But, it was that kind of night.
Final drive.
4Q - 0:46 - 1st and 10 - DAL 14 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to M.Gallup. PENALTY on PHI-J.Bradberry, Defensive Pass Interference
Huge spot here and I think this play demonstrates what might happen if Dallas can get something on the outside. Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and Michael Gallup have to combine to become a vertical threat. If they do – even twice a game – Lamb and Ferguson might be able to do most of the rest. This underthrown pass – probably by design – put the Cowboys in a wonderful spot in a real hurry.
4Q - 0:27 - 1st and 10 - PHI 11 - D.Prescott sacked at PHI 22 for -11 yards (J.Sweat).
From yesterday’s piece:
And now that last play.
Or maybe I am dreaming again.
Anyway, I have kept you long enough. Tomorrow, we go through the defense in Philly.
To win on the road against the NFC Champions, Dallas needed just one more play.
BOB STURM
NOV 7, 2023
Each Tuesday we attempt to evaluate the offense independently of the entire fabric of the game. They can only take care of their business and if they do it well and the team loses, they can still be evaluated positively. On the other hand, you can win a game and still think the offense can do much better.
So, we don’t want to simply look at the scoreboard to write out the report card. That isn’t how this should work, because more than week-to-week success, we are attempting to witness a team build itself into a much greater version of itself by season end. Great theory on paper, but it is wonderful when you see a team evolve.
In this edition of Decoding McCarthy, I will submit that the Cowboys lost the battle on Sunday, but appear to be winning the war more often on offense.
First, the bad news.
Dallas had the ball four times in the fourth quarter inside the Eagles 30-yard line. At the time the quarter began, they trailed, 28-17. There certainly was no way to know that the Eagles would not score again, but they did not. The bitter pill to swallow, knowing that, would be that if the Cowboys just kicked a field goal each time, they would have conceivably won, 29-28.
Instead:
– Fourth quarter drive No. 1: Turned the ball over on downs at the goal-line after Luke Schoonmaker was touched down just short of the goal. 0/1
– Fourth quarter drive No. 2: Scored a touchdown but then failed on a 2-point conversion when Dak Prescott stepped on the sideline. 1/2
– Fourth quarter drive No. 3: Turned the ball over on downs on an incomplete pass to Jalen Tolbert. 1/3
– Fourth drive No. 4: Fumbled at the 2-yard line as CeeDee Lamb struggled for the end zone in desperation. 1/4
There are plenty of details that will tell us nice things about the performance and there are more than a few encouraging signs to take from the experience. But, let’s not get this twisted. You have four opportunities where you cross from your territory into theirs and then work you way easily into scoring range. On three of the four trips, you even trundle inside their 10-yard line. And you pull just six points out of a possible 28.
That will lose you games which will lose you much more than that.
The Cowboys offense is now clicking pretty well. They have recently discovered how best to attack and have their “best players” playing like their best players on offense and that is a great spot to be in.
But, they cannot waste that many opportunities when the stakes are high. In some ways, you might find that more frustrating than going to San Francisco and demonstrating you could not do anything. In this game, you could do plenty – including march up and down the field against a vulnerable defense – but, you just couldn’t reward yourself for your hard work.
But, let’s talk about the “why” now.
The Cowboys have had some days where they couldn’t block their opponent. Week 10 of 2017 is usually what every fan remembers. That day was the Chaz Green game where the Cowboys had two backup left tackles trying to fill in for Tyron Smith. It went horribly wrong and appeared to concuss Prescott with all of the beating he took.
On that day in 2017, PFF charged Chaz Green with 7 QB pressures that resulted in 4 sacks. He was replaced by Byron Bell who gave up 4 QB pressures for 2 more sacks.
So, in total, that horrendous day was 11 QB pressures from spot on the line.
Sunday, the right tackle position was playing its newly extended starter, Terence Steele and he allowed 12 QB pressures.
I think we can all clearly agree that Steele must be playing hurt. We admire toughness, but on the heels of being able to block nobody in pass-pro in San Francisco, this was even worse. Here is a reel of the 12 times he was docked by PFF – it is nearly 2 minutes in length:
Notice how often Dak fixes it for him and even delivers a beautiful pass out of the mess. The only reason why Chaz Green gave up so many more sacks than Steele is because QB1 was able to fix it in this situation.
I am not sure the answer here – well, I am, but I also know this organization would never bench a player they just signed for $86 million – so, then people will just tell the Cowboys to plan for it and always leave help for him. That is a fun barroom solution, but I can assure you, you do not want to have to help a player every play when you are already trying to get your offense going against a contender in a loud stadium. You need 11 warriors who are able to band together and stand up for themselves across the board. The entire line was good enough on Sunday to win, aside from right tackle. In a “weak link” sport, this sort of thing can compromise the entire operation.
I submit it did on Sunday – and most of his issues were in the fourth quarter.
Anyway, I don’t think we can write this weekly review without explaining the uncomfortable truth here. Great dude and heck of a player for sure, but Terence Steele killed them on Sunday with his inability to block anything and it won’t get much better until he does. They might want to consider a stint on the IR during this softer spell in the schedule (they usually won’t even consider that) to get him back as healthy as possible for December.
Above, we see a lot of good things, but the end product (23 points) was too low for 400 yards of offense. We know that 400 needs to be 28 points or better and we also know that is what it would have taken to win.
Inefficiency has many reasons and we will continue to examine in the film review. But, first, I think it is important to recognize that Dak Prescott just played one of the very best games of his career.
Like teams, Quarterbacks can sometimes have their most valiant performances in a loss. There are things you cannot control and other things that you might have got slightly wrong, but overall, for three hours in hostility, Prescott was the very best version of himself. He hardly missed a target all day and also bravely navigated physical punishment to try to make plays. They can win it all with this version of him.
NEXT GEN THROW CHART - DAK PRESCOTT
Everything Philadelphia tried, he was ready for. He destroyed their man coverage (as usual) and their zone coverage (better than ever before). He ran when he could to free up opportunities and even tried to jump into the end zone when it wasn’t there.
I took some issue with his 2-point conversion step out of bounds because so much was at stake. But, given all of the criticism he deals with every time he takes the field, I don’t think there should be anyone speaking up very loudly about what their QB1 just did in Philadelphia. If you are someone looking forward to replacing him soon, maybe take this week off.
And again, the magic that CeeDee Lamb is proving capable of is why people should be pretty optimistic about 2023.
NEXT GEN - CEEDEE LAMB
Lamb was upset earlier in the year because he wasn’t getting the ball enough. I was quick to tell him to keep his composure in this space (which he surely doesn’t read, lol) and he has been proven to be correct. The main reason why we are excited about this offense right now is that nobody can deal with Lamb since they left San Francisco.
Look at his production soar. They have a real chance to do damage when you can get half of your yardage by throwing it to one guy and your opponent has no idea what to do. The Eagles are short of talent in the secondary and they know it this week.
Again, I don’t want to spend too much time on the personnel groupings this week, but it is worth checking in on the multiple TE formations that exist to “run the ball” with intent. They had 12 snaps with either a FB or multiple TE’s or both. 12 snaps that found them 32 yards total. Of all of the things they have tried to do this year, this is one that they continue to be poor at. Eight runs in these sets for 17 yards.
Ok, I have picked out nine plays that are important to this game, so let’s get to it before I turn this into a full book. It was a remarkable game for sure.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 2:28 - 4th and 1 - PHI 33 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb to PHI 4 for 29 yards.
This first one is fourth down. They use Lamb in the slot in motion to confirm man coverage and lock him in with undrafted rookie Eli Ricks. Ricks is a talented kid from LSU and Alabama but he hasn’t dealt with Lamb until this game. Here, Prescott has multiple tasty options as Gallup has Bradberry stacked for a touchdown on the bottom of the screen and Lamb is over Ricks from the slot. Prescott is wise to always give Lamb the ball when in doubt and he nearly scores. A massive statement from the Cowboys offense here.
2Q - 12:31 - 3rd and 14 - PHI 38 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb pushed ob at PHI 18 for 20 yards
This is 3rd and 14 and a big loss for Steele at RT. Also here, you can see with two-high that Jalen Tolbert is in the slot and immediately wins against a LB. I submit in future weeks, if someone else tries it, the Cowboys will be feeding that. If it wasn’t 3rd down, he might get the ball here, but Prescott is clearly locked on Lamb a bit in these matchups because he is being covered again by Ricks. 2-Man is the coverage, so Lamb will win, the question is whether Prescott can stay alive enough. Great pass on the run and the Cowboys convert a tough one here. Great job.
2Q - 11:21 - 3rd and 5 - D.Prescott pass short left to K.Turpin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
A few plays later they finish it off with a 5-across empty formation that basically finds the matchup you like most because nobody is playing zone at the 5-yard line in this situation. You isolate 21-Sydney Brown against tiny Turpin and go get your touchdown. Again, the Eagles know they don’t have enough weapons on the back end and that is why pass pressure is their only path to defensive competence against a passing team. Also why I wasn’t worried about establishing the run here.
2Q - 1:25 - 3rd and 3 - PHI 33 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to M.Gallup.
This was late in the second quarter when Dallas had to make a decision to kick a long field goal. The play before was this 3rd and 3 and here you learn why Dak will lock in on Lamb on these situations. Because other guys let him down. This is a perfect mesh and a wide open receiver past the sticks….who is not looking for the ball. I have no idea what is going on with Michael Gallup, but this is not very good.
Let’s get to that fourth quarter.
4Q - 10:10 - 4th and 1 - PHI 1 - D.Prescott pass short left to L.Schoonmaker to PHI 1 for no gain
This one is a huge fourth down. It would probably be great to have a run or even a sneak you like from here, but it was always going to be a pass. Two similar rub route schemes to get the 2nd guy open because your primaries are the main coverage magnets. We will use Lamb – who they are worried about – to free up Cooks to the right and Ferguson – same worries – to free up Schoonmaker. Dak is looking left the whole way and it is because he cannot block the LB (41-Cunningham) here if he blitzes, but if he doesn’t, he can get in the passing lane to the right and break up a play to Cooks. So, Prescott properly picks Schoonmaker up top and Ferguson must get a better piece of 32-Blankenship. You know by now that it was called a touchdown and reviewed back to being short. No call on the contact and no feeling that this will be their night.
4Q - 1:22 - 4th and 8 - PHI 29 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to J.Tolbert (J.Bradberry).
Here is another play that is being talked about because Jake Ferguson looks wide open right over the middle when Prescott is throwing to Tolbert. First, I want to say that the throw to Tolbert is fine and the contact from Bradberry will be called most times. But, back to Ferguson being wide open against 52-Cunningham again, is a bit misleading. Dak wants Lamb on this 4th and 8, but the Eagles have him bracketed. When you come off your primary, you are taught to go to the isolated X receiver next, because you don’t have time to survey the field in this spot. He is one-on-one and it is a clean look and you throw it where he can make a play. Yes, if Dak could pause the game and see Ferguson, then he would have thrown there, but this is actually fine QB work and the throw is where it needs to be. In a year, Tolbert wins that with physicality, but here, he probably deserved a call for Bradberry being in his back. But, it was that kind of night.
Final drive.
4Q - 0:46 - 1st and 10 - DAL 14 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to M.Gallup. PENALTY on PHI-J.Bradberry, Defensive Pass Interference
Huge spot here and I think this play demonstrates what might happen if Dallas can get something on the outside. Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and Michael Gallup have to combine to become a vertical threat. If they do – even twice a game – Lamb and Ferguson might be able to do most of the rest. This underthrown pass – probably by design – put the Cowboys in a wonderful spot in a real hurry.
4Q - 0:27 - 1st and 10 - PHI 11 - D.Prescott sacked at PHI 22 for -11 yards (J.Sweat).
From yesterday’s piece:
4Q - 0:05 - 3rd and 26 - PHI 27 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb to PHI 4 for 23 yards (D.Slay, S.Brown). FUMBLES (S.Brown), RECOVERED by PHI- R.Blankenship at PHI 7.
And now that last play.
I do wonder why they didn’t design a lateral here to someone like Turpin coming from the other side, but I suppose “fog of war” and such. But, even the threat of pitching it there might have caused enough chaos to unlock something.
Or maybe I am dreaming again.
Anyway, I have kept you long enough. Tomorrow, we go through the defense in Philly.