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Decoding Schotty Week 15 - Just Not Good Enough
The offense has the pieces, but as the season has gone on they have failed these big tests.
Bob Sturm
Dec 16, 2025
Here we go. Our objectives for today:
OVERALL OFFENSIVE EVALUATION
The season has been lost and the last three games are more for evaluation and academics. It is what it is. They put themselves back in the race, but then lost back to back games against the NFC North’s third and fourth-place teams and took themselves back out of the race.
It isn’t going to be their year.
This Minnesota game is frustrating because we can point to both sides of the ball again looking at what went wrong. This team has a very bad defense and they continued building that reputation in this game, but perhaps the more disheartening element of 2025 is how the offense has not played to its paper at critical times.
This Detroit/Minnesota stretch in which the numbers are fancy and pretty and will cause them to be high in the rankings for production, but the efficiency demonstrated that they are not what their rankings suggest at those critical moments in time. No, they are not built on garbage time stats as some will suggest, but they are just not getting enough for their yardage totals.
They have managed to put up 840 yards in the last two weeks and lost both games comfortably. You might think that automatically points to the defense and yes, the defense is poor. But, I would like to look at the offense today and tell you that when you are getting 420 yards a game and 25 first downs and not even turning the ball over that you should be getting more than 26 points.
But, inefficiency on third down (2-12) and in the red zone (2-5) isn’t helping. Then you add in that your coach is starting to fall in love with field goals too much – is Brandon Aubrey actually a detriment to decision making? – and you have 26 points when you probably should be near 35.
Yes, the offense has fancy numbers in many categories, but let’s not lose sight of points and points per drive. Dallas is fourth in points and fifth in points per drive, but the last few weeks, they have not done enough with their production and with no room for error, we are where we are.
The 3rd Down Problem.
A lot of it is this money down and this is a spot where Dallas has been great for years. Dak Prescott is a very good 3rd down QB and you can pick any five-year window in NFL history and sort by third downs and you will find the league’s best QBs. It is simply how it works.
Look at this list to see the best teams over the last five years (since Dak’s leg healed) and you will see the familiar teams. Now, few teams have had one QB for 5 years, so Green Bay still has Aaron Rodgers on there, Tampa still has Tom Brady stats, and others, but you quickly see the $50 million QBs all lined up.
So, we know that they understand what to do on third downs. But, this is also where defenses go to work and make their money. Brian Flores is awesome at designs and we will look at some of those below in our film study.
They went 2-for-12 for 16.7%. If we run the last 5 years of Cowboys game by worst third-down conversion rate, we will find this one right near the very bottom. Here are the 12 games during that five-year sample (several were with Dak out injured) where Dallas was under 28% on third down and as you can see, they are 3-for-9 in those 12 games. You must convert and extend drives in this world (or succeed on fourth down).
That 2 of 12 is just brutal and then 2-for-5 in the red zone is well below what can be acceptable. The league average is somewhere in the 60% range, so anytime you are at 40%, you are leaving too much meat on the bone.
Dallas has cashed in on two red zone TDs or less this season eight times and are 1-7 on those occasions. 5-0-1 if they can get three red zone TDs. It is probably an obvious correlation, but the results are stark.
What became of the Play Action?
Dak Prescott is probably the best play-action passer in the NFL this year and his numbers prove it.
Look at that. He has 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions with a passer rating of 135.1 which trails only Lamar Jackson. Then, without play-action, he becomes pretty ordinary. Things get muddy and more goes on pass protection against blitzes.
Well, this Minnesota game and the Detroit game featured a very strong pass rush and pressure on Prescott and this Minnesota game got him under duress about 50% of his dropbacks. This is the issue with this Dallas offense right now and it spreads to red zone, third down, everything. The pass protection of the Cowboys is being tested by opponents who have found that this is how you best deal with it all.
I would also argue that this is why they are not running the ball more. They have asked everything of Javonte Williams and he is wearing down. But, they need him for blitz pick-up and every carry. They never replaced a bigger RB when they lost Miles Sanders and once Hunter Luepke left the game, they were left with Malik Davis and a scratched Jaydon Blue. Neither his helping in blitz pick-up, so I really think they are shorthanded now.
Dak is getting hit too much, the throws are hurried, they are short of the sticks, and teams are now doing it more and more because they have finally learned how to disrupt this offense.
I believe this also explains the play-action. They know every-time they call it, Javonte takes another huge collision, so they are trying to be judicious. I am almost positive they wish they had another big RB, but it is probably too late to do much about it now.
But, yes, they didn’t have the roster right and it is costing them at this critical time.
Tyler Smith is a clear bright spot
We don’t talk enough about how great Tyler Smith is and he was really getting after it Sunday. The offensive line is fighting, but there are two dudes in particular at guard who are at a different level from everyone else.
I thought overall he was an absolute bully. He didn’t win every rep, but he sure won most of them. If there is a player I am fine paying top money to, I think Tyler Smith is on that list. He sets a physical tone and seems like a strong leader in the room, too.
They got a good one here.
FILM STUDY
OK, let’s go through some tape and I do have to start with the fake field goal.
1Q - 12:41 - 4-4-MIN 29 - (Field Goal formation) B.Aubrey right end to MIN 23 for 6 yards (I.Pace).
I can’t believe this over the shoulder pitch from Anger that was so perfect to Aubrey. They have to get to the 25-yard line, but seeing Schoonmaker open for a touchdown is also appealing. I like Aubrey making the smarter decision of moving the chains as he doesn’t likely throw on the run very often and this is a high pressure spot for the young man. He also does not have QB rules on the slide because he is a ball carrier, so we don’t have to sweat the slide being too early. Heck of a call and it worked out wonderfully.
1Q - 1:53 - 1-10-DAL 46 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb to MIN 24 for 30 yards (J.Metellus).
A couple things here. First, this pass is play-action with jet-sweep motion. Second, this is 1st and 10, so the Vikings are sitting on a run. This leaves Lamb and Pickens against mostly cover 2 and you can use Lamb and Pickens to free up space for each-other. This is optimum Cowboys offense. So, you have a post and an over-route and Lamb is wide open over the middle. Protection is excellent and this is throwing the ball in ideal settings.
2Q - 14:55 - 2-1-MIN 1 - M.Davis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
I love the cross motion from Lamb and then Spann-Ford coming back across to get the edge as Davis slams it up behind Beebe and Booker. It is all a strong and powerful play and Tyler Booker is perfect for this. He takes Javon Hargrave and also gets a LB and this is the push you need down deep.
2Q - 8:00 - 4-3-50 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb to MIN 33 for 17 yards (E.Wilson).
Again, optimum Cowboys offense here. 4th and 3, Vikings being safe with split-safety zone, the design uses Turpin to occupy the safeties by running right at them with speed and this allows Lamb to run a dig and Dak is on him the whole way. Depth on a dig is about 15 yards and you can square it in or angle it off a bit, depending on the situation, but Dak looks off the middle to Pickens, but is always coming back to Lamb. They have done this 1,000 times together.
2Q - 6:41 - 3-5-MIN 28 - D.Prescott sacked at MIN 33 for -5 yards (sack split by J.Greenard and J.Hargrave).
This one reminds me of us featuring Jonathan Greenard on our preview of this game. This is 3rd and 5 and the Cowboys offense is rolling here. But, protection is a down-by-down situation where you only have to lose once to turn the game. Terence Steele vs Greenard goes very poorly as I am not sure if Steele is expecting help from Luepke on the inside? Either way, once Greenard beats Steele, Dak is in full panic mode and looking for a solution. I think he had a path to the sticks if he stays left, but he ends up running right back into the trouble. I cannot imagine how hard it is to make strong choices when you are forced to circle around like that, but it starts with making sure your guys get their initial blocks. Booker is also on 55-Wilson who drops out. This is their scheme to confuse and then Booker sort of blocks nobody and Steele needs the help. The worst part is Dak has a few open options but he has no time. Then they miss the field goal and things are starting to get unsettled.
3Q - 13:34 - 2-7-MIN 40 - D.Prescott pass short right to L.Schoonmaker to MIN 11 for 29 yards (B.Murphy) [J.Greenard].
This is a good example here of asking a lot of your QB. Malik Davis has to pick up the cross blitzer, 51-Cashman, and you can see it isn’t a great matchup. Dak has to escape quickly and then finds Schoonmaker who makes a brilliant catch and run. But, again, this is Vikings chaos with 6 across and then they are messing with protection and use every method possible to disrupt and do so very well. Give Dak credit, but every snap is very chaotic.
3Q - 11:58 - 3-8-MIN 9 - D.Prescott pass short right to K.Turpin to MIN 8 for 1 yard (F.Moreau).
Here is Brian Flores defense. I kinda love it and want to hire him to run this defense. Watch the presnap. 6 Vikings vs 5 OL. So, Ferguson moves in to make it 6v6, but the moment he does, here comes Harrison Smith to make it 7 vs 6. The Vikings adjusted to your adjustment. Its 3rd and 8 and they no they are bringing one more than you can block, so Dak has one second to get the ball out against Cover 0. The game is 17-17 here, so everyone knows that the field goal is ok. So, Minnesota doesn’t think you can sort this in one second. You also can’t throw slants because what if those rushers are just baiting you to throw a hot slant right into a dropper? Great defense.
3Q - 5:52 - 3-13-MIN 28 - D.Prescott pass short middle to M.Davis to MIN 18 for 10 yards (D.Turner; B.Cashman).
Third and really long, so Dak has to then figure out how to deal with this. He doesn’t have time, Nate Thomas has been fighting hard, but losing. He also took a false start to dig your hole deeper. Your receivers have 13 yards to go, so he has to hold the ball, but he can’t take a sack. Perfect zone by dropping 7 leaves the QB no time to do much but dump it down and hope Davis can get you some yardage. Another field goal.
4Q - 13:06 - 3-4-MIN 37 - D.Prescott sacked at MIN 41 for -4 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and J.Greenard).
It is now 24-23 and the game is coming down to 4th Quarter execution. Here, 3rd and manageable, but protection is fatigued. Six across and both of my tackles are struggling. Steele loses and Thomas is trying to figure out how to block everyone. Van Ginkel wins too easily and Greenard dances Thomas to finish. Somehow, on this critical play, Spann-Ford and Turpin appear to be my reads? Lamb and Pickens are out wide but Dak is trying to get the chains and doesn’t even look at them. He wants something quick or to run and it is just not happening.
4Q - 5:40 - 3-7-MIN 45 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to M.Davis.
This one bothers me a bit more because I have to have a solution here against this same basic tactic by now. It is late and this may be my last 3rd down. The Vikings haven’t backed off at all and they are doubling a Pickens slant up top and a double awaits a Lamb slant down low (44 is lurking). So, what are my solutions? I want Lamb on a back shoulder fade maybe or a quick out to Ferguson looks there. Meanwhile, I have 75-Adeniji playing left tackle and 15-Dallas Turner blows by him in an instant, so Dak is about to get hit. Dak tries for Davis, but it isn’t going anywhere and frustration is high.
4Q - 5:35 - 4-7-MIN 45 - D.Prescott pass short middle to M.Davis to MIN 39 for 6 yards (E.Wilson). MIN-J.Greenard was injured during the play.
Final meaningful play of the game for the offense and the Vikings aren’t changing their plans. Why do I have no in-breakers or solutions? My protection is a mess with my 3rd left tackle having no chance against Greenard (who is lost for the year on this play, I believe, with a shoulder). He has no time to do anything but try to get the ball to Malik Davis who does not get deep enough because he is trying to find a hole in the chaos. He catches the pass but only gets six when he needs seven. Oof.
I need Schottenheimer to have much better solutions. The Minnesota defense doesn’t change much week to week. Brian Flores does the same thing and gets great results because they are a great defense. But, I have to have a better plan than these third downs that look like the same play and problems over and over. It would help if they had something at left tackle, but this isn’t the team to have those issues against.
The solution seemed to be to run the ball more, but they don’t have the roster right. It is all very disappointing, given how good this offense should be.
The offense has the pieces, but as the season has gone on they have failed these big tests.
Bob Sturm
Dec 16, 2025
Here we go. Our objectives for today:
- Overall Offensive Evaluation
- The Third-Down Problem
- What became of the Play Action?
- Tyler Smith is a clear bright spot
- Look at plenty of All-22 film and see what we can see.
OVERALL OFFENSIVE EVALUATION
The season has been lost and the last three games are more for evaluation and academics. It is what it is. They put themselves back in the race, but then lost back to back games against the NFC North’s third and fourth-place teams and took themselves back out of the race.
It isn’t going to be their year.
This Minnesota game is frustrating because we can point to both sides of the ball again looking at what went wrong. This team has a very bad defense and they continued building that reputation in this game, but perhaps the more disheartening element of 2025 is how the offense has not played to its paper at critical times.
This Detroit/Minnesota stretch in which the numbers are fancy and pretty and will cause them to be high in the rankings for production, but the efficiency demonstrated that they are not what their rankings suggest at those critical moments in time. No, they are not built on garbage time stats as some will suggest, but they are just not getting enough for their yardage totals.
They have managed to put up 840 yards in the last two weeks and lost both games comfortably. You might think that automatically points to the defense and yes, the defense is poor. But, I would like to look at the offense today and tell you that when you are getting 420 yards a game and 25 first downs and not even turning the ball over that you should be getting more than 26 points.
But, inefficiency on third down (2-12) and in the red zone (2-5) isn’t helping. Then you add in that your coach is starting to fall in love with field goals too much – is Brandon Aubrey actually a detriment to decision making? – and you have 26 points when you probably should be near 35.
Yes, the offense has fancy numbers in many categories, but let’s not lose sight of points and points per drive. Dallas is fourth in points and fifth in points per drive, but the last few weeks, they have not done enough with their production and with no room for error, we are where we are.
The 3rd Down Problem.
A lot of it is this money down and this is a spot where Dallas has been great for years. Dak Prescott is a very good 3rd down QB and you can pick any five-year window in NFL history and sort by third downs and you will find the league’s best QBs. It is simply how it works.
Look at this list to see the best teams over the last five years (since Dak’s leg healed) and you will see the familiar teams. Now, few teams have had one QB for 5 years, so Green Bay still has Aaron Rodgers on there, Tampa still has Tom Brady stats, and others, but you quickly see the $50 million QBs all lined up.
So, we know that they understand what to do on third downs. But, this is also where defenses go to work and make their money. Brian Flores is awesome at designs and we will look at some of those below in our film study.
They went 2-for-12 for 16.7%. If we run the last 5 years of Cowboys game by worst third-down conversion rate, we will find this one right near the very bottom. Here are the 12 games during that five-year sample (several were with Dak out injured) where Dallas was under 28% on third down and as you can see, they are 3-for-9 in those 12 games. You must convert and extend drives in this world (or succeed on fourth down).
That 2 of 12 is just brutal and then 2-for-5 in the red zone is well below what can be acceptable. The league average is somewhere in the 60% range, so anytime you are at 40%, you are leaving too much meat on the bone.
Dallas has cashed in on two red zone TDs or less this season eight times and are 1-7 on those occasions. 5-0-1 if they can get three red zone TDs. It is probably an obvious correlation, but the results are stark.
What became of the Play Action?
Dak Prescott is probably the best play-action passer in the NFL this year and his numbers prove it.
Look at that. He has 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions with a passer rating of 135.1 which trails only Lamar Jackson. Then, without play-action, he becomes pretty ordinary. Things get muddy and more goes on pass protection against blitzes.
Well, this Minnesota game and the Detroit game featured a very strong pass rush and pressure on Prescott and this Minnesota game got him under duress about 50% of his dropbacks. This is the issue with this Dallas offense right now and it spreads to red zone, third down, everything. The pass protection of the Cowboys is being tested by opponents who have found that this is how you best deal with it all.
I would also argue that this is why they are not running the ball more. They have asked everything of Javonte Williams and he is wearing down. But, they need him for blitz pick-up and every carry. They never replaced a bigger RB when they lost Miles Sanders and once Hunter Luepke left the game, they were left with Malik Davis and a scratched Jaydon Blue. Neither his helping in blitz pick-up, so I really think they are shorthanded now.
Dak is getting hit too much, the throws are hurried, they are short of the sticks, and teams are now doing it more and more because they have finally learned how to disrupt this offense.
I believe this also explains the play-action. They know every-time they call it, Javonte takes another huge collision, so they are trying to be judicious. I am almost positive they wish they had another big RB, but it is probably too late to do much about it now.
But, yes, they didn’t have the roster right and it is costing them at this critical time.
Tyler Smith is a clear bright spot
We don’t talk enough about how great Tyler Smith is and he was really getting after it Sunday. The offensive line is fighting, but there are two dudes in particular at guard who are at a different level from everyone else.
I thought overall he was an absolute bully. He didn’t win every rep, but he sure won most of them. If there is a player I am fine paying top money to, I think Tyler Smith is on that list. He sets a physical tone and seems like a strong leader in the room, too.
They got a good one here.
FILM STUDY
OK, let’s go through some tape and I do have to start with the fake field goal.
1Q - 12:41 - 4-4-MIN 29 - (Field Goal formation) B.Aubrey right end to MIN 23 for 6 yards (I.Pace).
I can’t believe this over the shoulder pitch from Anger that was so perfect to Aubrey. They have to get to the 25-yard line, but seeing Schoonmaker open for a touchdown is also appealing. I like Aubrey making the smarter decision of moving the chains as he doesn’t likely throw on the run very often and this is a high pressure spot for the young man. He also does not have QB rules on the slide because he is a ball carrier, so we don’t have to sweat the slide being too early. Heck of a call and it worked out wonderfully.
1Q - 1:53 - 1-10-DAL 46 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb to MIN 24 for 30 yards (J.Metellus).
A couple things here. First, this pass is play-action with jet-sweep motion. Second, this is 1st and 10, so the Vikings are sitting on a run. This leaves Lamb and Pickens against mostly cover 2 and you can use Lamb and Pickens to free up space for each-other. This is optimum Cowboys offense. So, you have a post and an over-route and Lamb is wide open over the middle. Protection is excellent and this is throwing the ball in ideal settings.
2Q - 14:55 - 2-1-MIN 1 - M.Davis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
I love the cross motion from Lamb and then Spann-Ford coming back across to get the edge as Davis slams it up behind Beebe and Booker. It is all a strong and powerful play and Tyler Booker is perfect for this. He takes Javon Hargrave and also gets a LB and this is the push you need down deep.
2Q - 8:00 - 4-3-50 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb to MIN 33 for 17 yards (E.Wilson).
Again, optimum Cowboys offense here. 4th and 3, Vikings being safe with split-safety zone, the design uses Turpin to occupy the safeties by running right at them with speed and this allows Lamb to run a dig and Dak is on him the whole way. Depth on a dig is about 15 yards and you can square it in or angle it off a bit, depending on the situation, but Dak looks off the middle to Pickens, but is always coming back to Lamb. They have done this 1,000 times together.
2Q - 6:41 - 3-5-MIN 28 - D.Prescott sacked at MIN 33 for -5 yards (sack split by J.Greenard and J.Hargrave).
This one reminds me of us featuring Jonathan Greenard on our preview of this game. This is 3rd and 5 and the Cowboys offense is rolling here. But, protection is a down-by-down situation where you only have to lose once to turn the game. Terence Steele vs Greenard goes very poorly as I am not sure if Steele is expecting help from Luepke on the inside? Either way, once Greenard beats Steele, Dak is in full panic mode and looking for a solution. I think he had a path to the sticks if he stays left, but he ends up running right back into the trouble. I cannot imagine how hard it is to make strong choices when you are forced to circle around like that, but it starts with making sure your guys get their initial blocks. Booker is also on 55-Wilson who drops out. This is their scheme to confuse and then Booker sort of blocks nobody and Steele needs the help. The worst part is Dak has a few open options but he has no time. Then they miss the field goal and things are starting to get unsettled.
3Q - 13:34 - 2-7-MIN 40 - D.Prescott pass short right to L.Schoonmaker to MIN 11 for 29 yards (B.Murphy) [J.Greenard].
This is a good example here of asking a lot of your QB. Malik Davis has to pick up the cross blitzer, 51-Cashman, and you can see it isn’t a great matchup. Dak has to escape quickly and then finds Schoonmaker who makes a brilliant catch and run. But, again, this is Vikings chaos with 6 across and then they are messing with protection and use every method possible to disrupt and do so very well. Give Dak credit, but every snap is very chaotic.
3Q - 11:58 - 3-8-MIN 9 - D.Prescott pass short right to K.Turpin to MIN 8 for 1 yard (F.Moreau).
Here is Brian Flores defense. I kinda love it and want to hire him to run this defense. Watch the presnap. 6 Vikings vs 5 OL. So, Ferguson moves in to make it 6v6, but the moment he does, here comes Harrison Smith to make it 7 vs 6. The Vikings adjusted to your adjustment. Its 3rd and 8 and they no they are bringing one more than you can block, so Dak has one second to get the ball out against Cover 0. The game is 17-17 here, so everyone knows that the field goal is ok. So, Minnesota doesn’t think you can sort this in one second. You also can’t throw slants because what if those rushers are just baiting you to throw a hot slant right into a dropper? Great defense.
3Q - 5:52 - 3-13-MIN 28 - D.Prescott pass short middle to M.Davis to MIN 18 for 10 yards (D.Turner; B.Cashman).
Third and really long, so Dak has to then figure out how to deal with this. He doesn’t have time, Nate Thomas has been fighting hard, but losing. He also took a false start to dig your hole deeper. Your receivers have 13 yards to go, so he has to hold the ball, but he can’t take a sack. Perfect zone by dropping 7 leaves the QB no time to do much but dump it down and hope Davis can get you some yardage. Another field goal.
4Q - 13:06 - 3-4-MIN 37 - D.Prescott sacked at MIN 41 for -4 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and J.Greenard).
It is now 24-23 and the game is coming down to 4th Quarter execution. Here, 3rd and manageable, but protection is fatigued. Six across and both of my tackles are struggling. Steele loses and Thomas is trying to figure out how to block everyone. Van Ginkel wins too easily and Greenard dances Thomas to finish. Somehow, on this critical play, Spann-Ford and Turpin appear to be my reads? Lamb and Pickens are out wide but Dak is trying to get the chains and doesn’t even look at them. He wants something quick or to run and it is just not happening.
4Q - 5:40 - 3-7-MIN 45 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to M.Davis.
This one bothers me a bit more because I have to have a solution here against this same basic tactic by now. It is late and this may be my last 3rd down. The Vikings haven’t backed off at all and they are doubling a Pickens slant up top and a double awaits a Lamb slant down low (44 is lurking). So, what are my solutions? I want Lamb on a back shoulder fade maybe or a quick out to Ferguson looks there. Meanwhile, I have 75-Adeniji playing left tackle and 15-Dallas Turner blows by him in an instant, so Dak is about to get hit. Dak tries for Davis, but it isn’t going anywhere and frustration is high.
4Q - 5:35 - 4-7-MIN 45 - D.Prescott pass short middle to M.Davis to MIN 39 for 6 yards (E.Wilson). MIN-J.Greenard was injured during the play.
Final meaningful play of the game for the offense and the Vikings aren’t changing their plans. Why do I have no in-breakers or solutions? My protection is a mess with my 3rd left tackle having no chance against Greenard (who is lost for the year on this play, I believe, with a shoulder). He has no time to do anything but try to get the ball to Malik Davis who does not get deep enough because he is trying to find a hole in the chaos. He catches the pass but only gets six when he needs seven. Oof.
I need Schottenheimer to have much better solutions. The Minnesota defense doesn’t change much week to week. Brian Flores does the same thing and gets great results because they are a great defense. But, I have to have a better plan than these third downs that look like the same play and problems over and over. It would help if they had something at left tackle, but this isn’t the team to have those issues against.
The solution seemed to be to run the ball more, but they don’t have the roster right. It is all very disappointing, given how good this offense should be.
