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Decoding McCarthy/Zimmer Report, Week 18
The Loss to Washington brings 2024 to a close; Cowboys now must fix what is broken.
Bob Sturm
Jan 07, 2025
Our objectives today:
2023 vs 2024 stat comparisons
The game on Sunday ended a disappointing year, and we don’t need to dig much deeper than 12-5, 12-5, 12-5, finishing this year at 7-10 with a team that regressed significantly in nearly every way.
Clearly, the health of its best players determined much of this, but we should also not delude ourselves too much. This was a bad team, and it was bad in August and September when everything was relatively healthy and in place. It would serve us well not to revise history about the quality of the 2024 Cowboys. Still, the numbers below are undoubtedly a byproduct of not having a large portion of the roster available.
First, the year to year in our “10 big metrics” for the offense.
There is not a single statistic that performed as well, and almost none are even close. Production was significantly down, and efficiency also took a steep decline. When you combine those factors, the results are catastrophic. This was a very good offense for several years in a row, but they spent this year either without a running game whatsoever, without QB1, or at times, both.
I know it is fashionable to act as though Dak Prescott is a horrendous QB, but there is no evidence to support this notion. Statistically and in terms of team results, he is an objectively strong QB option in the NFL and a player who normally gives you a chance. That said, 2024 was a dip in his form (well before the injury), and they will need him to return to his usual standards to give this team a chance at a quick revival. Additionally, the lack of weapons and the unsteady offensive line when he was available both require attention.
Now, the defense year-to-year as the Cowboys moved on from Dan Quinn to the Mike Zimmer group:
Not as bad, but still very bad. Seeing points and yards shoot straight up was bad enough, but the offseason focus on stopping the run only to give up 25 more yards per game tells us that the personnel decisions and coaching strategies missed the mark. And yes, both offensively and defensively, nothing was as demoralizing as the Cowboys' work in the red zone.
If you asked any of us to do a blind taste test on a team that ranks 27th in rushing, 29th against the run, 31st in the red zone, and 32nd in red zone defense, we would conclude we’re looking at perhaps the least physical team in the NFL.
Well, I have bad news—because that is exactly where the Cowboys are right now. And a healthy QB cannot fix that. This sounds like a soft team, and that needs to be addressed.
The Offensive Overview vs the Commanders
I won’t belabor this too much. Overall, the offensive performance in the Trey Lance start – he pulls even with Drew Henson now with career starts for the Cowboys – was not bad. 378 yards and 0 giveaways is good. But, yes, 1-6 in the red zone is not as good.
The overall production was decent, and the success rates were solid. Based on the early part of the game, it seems they did a good job of putting Lance in comfortable situations. You would like to see even more RPO and play-action concepts if we were to watch him over a month. For some reason, we only saw this one game, so it’s hard to draw many conclusions for the future.
That said, I suppose there’s a scenario where the Cowboys bring him back (as pointless as that seems now—unless they think not playing him gives them the best chance of keeping him. Who knows?).
Above is our drive chart and each red box is a red zone drive. You go to the red zone six times, you have a chance at six touchdowns (42 points). They went six times and left with 19 points and we can say this is play-calling, but what it also says is that play-making and QB play make a big difference in these tight areas and this is a spot where Lance is well off the mark.
EVALUATING TREY LANCE
The entire Trey Lance scouting report from August can be reviewed here, if you would like. I say that because very little seems to have changed from my summary tweet on August 24th:
It is uncanny how this is still true. What if you had a player who could hit three-pointers at a very high level but couldn’t make free throws or dribble? You would wonder if they skipped the foundational stages of development, gambling that the small fundamentals wouldn’t matter as much as the dazzling, jaw-dropping moments. Similarly, he is simply a young man who didn’t play enough quarterback at the early stages of development, making the simple things appear difficult.
But the hard stuff? I have to tell you, this reel will make you think he’s capable of some very impressive things at the NFL level:
Rolling out, throwing on the run, firing lasers 30-yards downfield and hitting his target in stride. The RPO/Play-action concept that gets him to play to one side of the field and playing fast suits him well. I believe he looked great on scripted plays, but as the game goes along as things start happening fast, he slows down. Also full-field reads do look like it causes a slow-down and he holds the ball, which leads to trouble. But, that reel above? I like a lot and would say that we should see more.
But, there is also a reel below:
Leading guys out of bounds repeatedly. Airmailing an open guy in the back of the end zone. Holding the ball too long and taking sacks. And yes, the red zone play to Rico Dowdle where in one play he did so much good and then the easy part ended up being a bounced pass at the moment of truth to a guy who could not be more open.
The Defensive Overview vs the Commanders
OK, to the defense!
Who would have thought that handling Jayden Daniels with relative ease would unravel so badly in the second half when Washington went to the bullpen, pulling Daniels to put him in bubble wrap for his pre-playoff game preparations?
As you can see, Daniels exited at halftime, and Marcus Mariota took over, orchestrating three touchdown drives in the second half and scoring 20 points in total to win the game on the final play from scrimmage.
Daniels was sacked four times, but Mariota got the ball out quickly and then, as we will see below, got his feet moving down the field and is a very strong runner for a QB and a very strong backup for any team to have a guy with these tools and experience as your QB2.
From a defensive standpoint, there is plenty of good. Allowing just 269 and under 23 minutes of possession is great. But, you cannot cave in on every 2nd half drive and red zone chance.
For the defense, there were key moments to get a stop and they just didn’t have the ability at the end to get off the field. Almost the exact opposite of the offense where both sides of the ball were just inefficient enough to lose this game.
SPLASH PLAYS
Here is the final week of splash plays from the defense and Micah did not take long to get the sack he needed and then added two more for good measure.
So, our 2024 splash play champion is also our 2023 and 2021 champion, Micah Parsons:
The last decade of splash play champions for the Cowboys:
2024 - Parsons
2023 - Parsons
2022 - Lawrence
2021 - Parsons
2020 - Lawrence
2019 - Lawrence
2018 - Lawrence
2017 - Lawrence
2016 - Irving
2015 - Lawrence
10 Plays that defined this game - Xs and Os breakdown
Ok, for one final time….Let’s take a look.
1Q - 15:00 - 1-10-WAS 30 - J.Daniels sacked at WAS 26 for -4 yards (M.Parsons).
This one is pretty easy. What happens when your line of scrimmage is the 30 but all four Cowboys rushers have pushed your entire line back to about the 24? Cowboys are playing Cover-1 behind it, but this four man rush appears to have all four guys in Daniels lap as Mazi Smith and Osa Odighizuwa are collapsing the front with Micah in the back pushing Daniels out and then closing him down. We knew Micah would get a sack, but this was the first snap and he took care of it quickly.
1Q - 13:46 - 3-3-WAS 37 - J.Daniels sacked at WAS 28 for -9 yards (M.Parsons).
Here is a 3rd and 3 just two plays later and the Cowboys are rushing six in a blitz, but more importantly are putting Parsons over 60-Deiter who is the backup to Tyler Biadasz at center. Does anyone think he can block Parsons by himself, because he is going to have to if the Cowboys bring six. Parsons wins so fast that the play is over, but look at how wide open Terry McLaurin is behind him if they get him blocked. That might be a touchdown as the crosser is going to run forever, but having Micah is a pretty unfair advantage.
1Q - 11:30 - 3-6-DAL 13 - T.Lance pass deep right to J.Tolbert pushed ob at DAL 44 for 31 yards
Here is what a week of preparation does for a young QB. The game script has selected a bunch of plays he has practiced over and over for this moment. This is the first throw for Trey Lance so they want to get him feeling good about himself and comfortable. Rollout right with Jalen Tolbert streaking across in front of his vision with a route that mirrors Lance’s rollout. Mingo is on the sideline and Cooks is taking the middle safety on a post. So, if the safety goes to Tolbert, you throw to Cooks up top. If the safety sticks with Cooks, you should have Tolbert open. He does and the throw is on it. Great job.
1Q - 10:52 - 1-10-DAL 44 - T.Lance pass deep middle to K.Turpin ran ob at WAS 23 for 33 yards (P.Butler).
Very next play after the big gain and it is 1st and 10. Here, Tyler Guyton gets beat very quickly by 96-Holmes, but not before Lance fires another strike, this one to Turpin who is running a similar streak to Tolbert against Cover-1 again and the safety is nowhere close to help. Again, it is a bit frustrating to see them unlock Turpin out of the slot after Prescott was injured. Turpin’s release was great and he was untouched and then that corner has no chance to run with him. Good throw and then Turpin does the rest. In an offense without juice, it is a shame they didn’t figure out this weapon until the 2nd half of this season. Again, the pregame script is working.
2Q - 8:00 - 3-17-DAL 28 - T.Lance pass incomplete deep right to K.Turpin.
Ok, step 1 - stay out of 3rd and 17. I won’t expect anything in terms of an aggressive throw in this situation, but since Lance ripped it deep I would like to compliment the route concept as Tolbert clears out the side and Turpin runs into the space where the throw is there. But, Lance needs to throw it with more anticipation and perhaps a flatter throw to get it there before the DB can recover. And yes, most importantly, you have to throw the ball in bounds. As you can see, this is a pretty textbook “red line” throw again and neither Turpin nor Lance respect the red line (5 yards in bounds, parallel with the sideline. A throw to an open guy but out of bounds is definitely not useful.
2Q - 0:53 - 1-9-WAS 9 - T.Lance pass incomplete short right to B.Cooks.
This one is easy. Very basic red zone concept on 1st and goal. Cowboys run this all the time with a bunch and the deep out to the back pylon. I would say this has been practiced and repped 1,000 times for Lance and he will hate this miss because it is wide open (NFL standards) and he misses the throw by at least a mile.
2Q - 0:24 - 4-2-WAS 2 - T.Lance pass incomplete short left to R.Dowdle.
This might be the play we remember Trey Lance by. It is 4th and goal and they go for it. The Commanders bring 22-Forrest off the edge on a blitz that Terence Steele barely recognizes and can’t get to, so Lance is probably dead here. Instead, with both edges breaking down, he avoids Forrest and 99-Clelin Ferrell in a magical escape. It is incredible as he breaks free with Rico Dowdle running down the goal-line uncovered. All he has to do is give Rico the ball and it is magnificent QB play. Instead, you can feel him aiming and short-arming this throw and it hits the turf. Watching Lance after the play is painful as he ponders what just happened. This was a rough one.
4Q - 11:22 - 1-5-DAL 5 - M.Mariota left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
I suppose it is only fitting that the QB keep on the zone read is how we end the season, too. We saw this plenty in the early season, so old habits die hard. Oldest play in the book. 94-Kneeland is not blocked and he is the read. If he takes the RB, the QB keeps. If he stays with the QB, he should give the ball. Also, 35-Liufau has to be on it to help. Kneeland does well, but clearly over-extends himself and Mariota makes him miss. And Liufau cannot find the ball so there is no help and the QB gets into the end zone. But, wait, they will come back to this.
4Q - 0:33 - 4-1-DAL 49 - M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards
It is 4th and 1 and this is the game. Just stop this run, so Micah is taking the RB and this time 35-Liufau has the scrape exchange where he is now on the QB. But, because the NFL is hard, Liufau is taking the wide angle so there is no way the QB can get outside him. What happens? He leaves too much on the inside and off they go to the races. The Cowboys have a very talented rookie class, but they all played like rookies this year and will need to get better with time. I bet they will, too.
4Q - 0:06 - 2-5-DAL 5 - M.Mariota pass short left to T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This last snap will determine whether we are going to overtime or into the offseason. Cover 0 blitz and if Mariota can throw a fade to McLaurin with DaRon Bland doing everything he can, then the Commanders win. I don’t love a blitz here because the throw is gone before you can get there, but we should probably credit Mariota because he was darn near flawless when it mattered and made a great throw. From there, Scary Terry decided to “Moss” Bland and there was nothing he could do with his back turned.
And with that, our daily coverage for the 2024 Dallas Cowboys season has ended. We may now throw open the offseason window and get working on the future.
The Loss to Washington brings 2024 to a close; Cowboys now must fix what is broken.
Bob Sturm
Jan 07, 2025
Our objectives today:
- 2023 vs 2024 stat comparisons
- The Offensive Overview vs the Commanders
- Trey Lance Gets a Start
- The Defensive Overview vs the Commanders
- 10 Plays that defined this game - Xs and Os breakdown
2023 vs 2024 stat comparisons
The game on Sunday ended a disappointing year, and we don’t need to dig much deeper than 12-5, 12-5, 12-5, finishing this year at 7-10 with a team that regressed significantly in nearly every way.
Clearly, the health of its best players determined much of this, but we should also not delude ourselves too much. This was a bad team, and it was bad in August and September when everything was relatively healthy and in place. It would serve us well not to revise history about the quality of the 2024 Cowboys. Still, the numbers below are undoubtedly a byproduct of not having a large portion of the roster available.
First, the year to year in our “10 big metrics” for the offense.
There is not a single statistic that performed as well, and almost none are even close. Production was significantly down, and efficiency also took a steep decline. When you combine those factors, the results are catastrophic. This was a very good offense for several years in a row, but they spent this year either without a running game whatsoever, without QB1, or at times, both.
I know it is fashionable to act as though Dak Prescott is a horrendous QB, but there is no evidence to support this notion. Statistically and in terms of team results, he is an objectively strong QB option in the NFL and a player who normally gives you a chance. That said, 2024 was a dip in his form (well before the injury), and they will need him to return to his usual standards to give this team a chance at a quick revival. Additionally, the lack of weapons and the unsteady offensive line when he was available both require attention.
Now, the defense year-to-year as the Cowboys moved on from Dan Quinn to the Mike Zimmer group:
Not as bad, but still very bad. Seeing points and yards shoot straight up was bad enough, but the offseason focus on stopping the run only to give up 25 more yards per game tells us that the personnel decisions and coaching strategies missed the mark. And yes, both offensively and defensively, nothing was as demoralizing as the Cowboys' work in the red zone.
If you asked any of us to do a blind taste test on a team that ranks 27th in rushing, 29th against the run, 31st in the red zone, and 32nd in red zone defense, we would conclude we’re looking at perhaps the least physical team in the NFL.
Well, I have bad news—because that is exactly where the Cowboys are right now. And a healthy QB cannot fix that. This sounds like a soft team, and that needs to be addressed.
The Offensive Overview vs the Commanders
I won’t belabor this too much. Overall, the offensive performance in the Trey Lance start – he pulls even with Drew Henson now with career starts for the Cowboys – was not bad. 378 yards and 0 giveaways is good. But, yes, 1-6 in the red zone is not as good.
The overall production was decent, and the success rates were solid. Based on the early part of the game, it seems they did a good job of putting Lance in comfortable situations. You would like to see even more RPO and play-action concepts if we were to watch him over a month. For some reason, we only saw this one game, so it’s hard to draw many conclusions for the future.
That said, I suppose there’s a scenario where the Cowboys bring him back (as pointless as that seems now—unless they think not playing him gives them the best chance of keeping him. Who knows?).
Above is our drive chart and each red box is a red zone drive. You go to the red zone six times, you have a chance at six touchdowns (42 points). They went six times and left with 19 points and we can say this is play-calling, but what it also says is that play-making and QB play make a big difference in these tight areas and this is a spot where Lance is well off the mark.
EVALUATING TREY LANCE
The entire Trey Lance scouting report from August can be reviewed here, if you would like. I say that because very little seems to have changed from my summary tweet on August 24th:
It is uncanny how this is still true. What if you had a player who could hit three-pointers at a very high level but couldn’t make free throws or dribble? You would wonder if they skipped the foundational stages of development, gambling that the small fundamentals wouldn’t matter as much as the dazzling, jaw-dropping moments. Similarly, he is simply a young man who didn’t play enough quarterback at the early stages of development, making the simple things appear difficult.
But the hard stuff? I have to tell you, this reel will make you think he’s capable of some very impressive things at the NFL level:
Rolling out, throwing on the run, firing lasers 30-yards downfield and hitting his target in stride. The RPO/Play-action concept that gets him to play to one side of the field and playing fast suits him well. I believe he looked great on scripted plays, but as the game goes along as things start happening fast, he slows down. Also full-field reads do look like it causes a slow-down and he holds the ball, which leads to trouble. But, that reel above? I like a lot and would say that we should see more.
But, there is also a reel below:
Leading guys out of bounds repeatedly. Airmailing an open guy in the back of the end zone. Holding the ball too long and taking sacks. And yes, the red zone play to Rico Dowdle where in one play he did so much good and then the easy part ended up being a bounced pass at the moment of truth to a guy who could not be more open.
The Defensive Overview vs the Commanders
OK, to the defense!
Who would have thought that handling Jayden Daniels with relative ease would unravel so badly in the second half when Washington went to the bullpen, pulling Daniels to put him in bubble wrap for his pre-playoff game preparations?
As you can see, Daniels exited at halftime, and Marcus Mariota took over, orchestrating three touchdown drives in the second half and scoring 20 points in total to win the game on the final play from scrimmage.
Daniels was sacked four times, but Mariota got the ball out quickly and then, as we will see below, got his feet moving down the field and is a very strong runner for a QB and a very strong backup for any team to have a guy with these tools and experience as your QB2.
From a defensive standpoint, there is plenty of good. Allowing just 269 and under 23 minutes of possession is great. But, you cannot cave in on every 2nd half drive and red zone chance.
For the defense, there were key moments to get a stop and they just didn’t have the ability at the end to get off the field. Almost the exact opposite of the offense where both sides of the ball were just inefficient enough to lose this game.
SPLASH PLAYS
Here is the final week of splash plays from the defense and Micah did not take long to get the sack he needed and then added two more for good measure.
So, our 2024 splash play champion is also our 2023 and 2021 champion, Micah Parsons:
The last decade of splash play champions for the Cowboys:
2024 - Parsons
2023 - Parsons
2022 - Lawrence
2021 - Parsons
2020 - Lawrence
2019 - Lawrence
2018 - Lawrence
2017 - Lawrence
2016 - Irving
2015 - Lawrence
10 Plays that defined this game - Xs and Os breakdown
Ok, for one final time….Let’s take a look.
1Q - 15:00 - 1-10-WAS 30 - J.Daniels sacked at WAS 26 for -4 yards (M.Parsons).
This one is pretty easy. What happens when your line of scrimmage is the 30 but all four Cowboys rushers have pushed your entire line back to about the 24? Cowboys are playing Cover-1 behind it, but this four man rush appears to have all four guys in Daniels lap as Mazi Smith and Osa Odighizuwa are collapsing the front with Micah in the back pushing Daniels out and then closing him down. We knew Micah would get a sack, but this was the first snap and he took care of it quickly.
1Q - 13:46 - 3-3-WAS 37 - J.Daniels sacked at WAS 28 for -9 yards (M.Parsons).
Here is a 3rd and 3 just two plays later and the Cowboys are rushing six in a blitz, but more importantly are putting Parsons over 60-Deiter who is the backup to Tyler Biadasz at center. Does anyone think he can block Parsons by himself, because he is going to have to if the Cowboys bring six. Parsons wins so fast that the play is over, but look at how wide open Terry McLaurin is behind him if they get him blocked. That might be a touchdown as the crosser is going to run forever, but having Micah is a pretty unfair advantage.
1Q - 11:30 - 3-6-DAL 13 - T.Lance pass deep right to J.Tolbert pushed ob at DAL 44 for 31 yards
Here is what a week of preparation does for a young QB. The game script has selected a bunch of plays he has practiced over and over for this moment. This is the first throw for Trey Lance so they want to get him feeling good about himself and comfortable. Rollout right with Jalen Tolbert streaking across in front of his vision with a route that mirrors Lance’s rollout. Mingo is on the sideline and Cooks is taking the middle safety on a post. So, if the safety goes to Tolbert, you throw to Cooks up top. If the safety sticks with Cooks, you should have Tolbert open. He does and the throw is on it. Great job.
1Q - 10:52 - 1-10-DAL 44 - T.Lance pass deep middle to K.Turpin ran ob at WAS 23 for 33 yards (P.Butler).
Very next play after the big gain and it is 1st and 10. Here, Tyler Guyton gets beat very quickly by 96-Holmes, but not before Lance fires another strike, this one to Turpin who is running a similar streak to Tolbert against Cover-1 again and the safety is nowhere close to help. Again, it is a bit frustrating to see them unlock Turpin out of the slot after Prescott was injured. Turpin’s release was great and he was untouched and then that corner has no chance to run with him. Good throw and then Turpin does the rest. In an offense without juice, it is a shame they didn’t figure out this weapon until the 2nd half of this season. Again, the pregame script is working.
2Q - 8:00 - 3-17-DAL 28 - T.Lance pass incomplete deep right to K.Turpin.
Ok, step 1 - stay out of 3rd and 17. I won’t expect anything in terms of an aggressive throw in this situation, but since Lance ripped it deep I would like to compliment the route concept as Tolbert clears out the side and Turpin runs into the space where the throw is there. But, Lance needs to throw it with more anticipation and perhaps a flatter throw to get it there before the DB can recover. And yes, most importantly, you have to throw the ball in bounds. As you can see, this is a pretty textbook “red line” throw again and neither Turpin nor Lance respect the red line (5 yards in bounds, parallel with the sideline. A throw to an open guy but out of bounds is definitely not useful.
2Q - 0:53 - 1-9-WAS 9 - T.Lance pass incomplete short right to B.Cooks.
This one is easy. Very basic red zone concept on 1st and goal. Cowboys run this all the time with a bunch and the deep out to the back pylon. I would say this has been practiced and repped 1,000 times for Lance and he will hate this miss because it is wide open (NFL standards) and he misses the throw by at least a mile.
2Q - 0:24 - 4-2-WAS 2 - T.Lance pass incomplete short left to R.Dowdle.
This might be the play we remember Trey Lance by. It is 4th and goal and they go for it. The Commanders bring 22-Forrest off the edge on a blitz that Terence Steele barely recognizes and can’t get to, so Lance is probably dead here. Instead, with both edges breaking down, he avoids Forrest and 99-Clelin Ferrell in a magical escape. It is incredible as he breaks free with Rico Dowdle running down the goal-line uncovered. All he has to do is give Rico the ball and it is magnificent QB play. Instead, you can feel him aiming and short-arming this throw and it hits the turf. Watching Lance after the play is painful as he ponders what just happened. This was a rough one.
4Q - 11:22 - 1-5-DAL 5 - M.Mariota left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
I suppose it is only fitting that the QB keep on the zone read is how we end the season, too. We saw this plenty in the early season, so old habits die hard. Oldest play in the book. 94-Kneeland is not blocked and he is the read. If he takes the RB, the QB keeps. If he stays with the QB, he should give the ball. Also, 35-Liufau has to be on it to help. Kneeland does well, but clearly over-extends himself and Mariota makes him miss. And Liufau cannot find the ball so there is no help and the QB gets into the end zone. But, wait, they will come back to this.
4Q - 0:33 - 4-1-DAL 49 - M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards
It is 4th and 1 and this is the game. Just stop this run, so Micah is taking the RB and this time 35-Liufau has the scrape exchange where he is now on the QB. But, because the NFL is hard, Liufau is taking the wide angle so there is no way the QB can get outside him. What happens? He leaves too much on the inside and off they go to the races. The Cowboys have a very talented rookie class, but they all played like rookies this year and will need to get better with time. I bet they will, too.
4Q - 0:06 - 2-5-DAL 5 - M.Mariota pass short left to T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This last snap will determine whether we are going to overtime or into the offseason. Cover 0 blitz and if Mariota can throw a fade to McLaurin with DaRon Bland doing everything he can, then the Commanders win. I don’t love a blitz here because the throw is gone before you can get there, but we should probably credit Mariota because he was darn near flawless when it mattered and made a great throw. From there, Scary Terry decided to “Moss” Bland and there was nothing he could do with his back turned.
And with that, our daily coverage for the 2024 Dallas Cowboys season has ended. We may now throw open the offseason window and get working on the future.
