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Decoding McCarthy/Zimmer Report, Week 14
Looking at the close battle against the Bengals and the Xs and Os that went into it.
Bob Sturm
Dec 11, 2024
Our objectives today:
The Offensive Overview vs the Bengals
The Cowboys offense definitely misses Dak Prescott. They just have such a stunted passing game that lacks verticality or powerful throws. Cooper Rush can run the offense, but the offense he runs is a significantly different.
Yet, the rushing game continues to tease us into believing they might be continuing to figure things out.
For me, the Cowboys showed some good things at the start of each half, but then, as the game left the script, it appears that Rush and the offense began to hit walls of resistance as each half went along. See below, the two blue box levels would show the spots in each half where the offense started producing results. But, then, it would just end and the drives were ineffective again.
The issues with the offense seem to repeat each week. The Cowboys now appear to be better at running the ball, but they still seem to pass the ball way too much. I am sure the coaches will tell you when you run the ball is as important to how you run the ball, so I don’t want to act like that isn’t part of this.
For instance, CeeDee Lamb as a threat can help you run the ball because of his gravity, but in order for the gravity to have strength, you have to show you will make him such a part of the attack. And to do that, you must pass the ball. So, running it more might diminish returns. In other words, people say to stop passing so much, but that actually might be why the run plays work better. I guess I am just saying I think critics lack nuance on this stuff. Play calling is more about that specific play. Now, all that said, I would like to see more runs because Rico Dowdle was so much more effective than Cooper Rush was on Monday. And given the margin of defeat, maybe moving that balance changes the outcome.
It was another career day for Rico Dowdle. He has two career days over 100 yards and they are last week and this week. He was so impressive and we now start to see what we thought might be possible this summer if they just give him the ball and allow him to get 15-20 touches to see what he can get going. Just look at this cut-up.
So many successful runs and I really continue to like his energy. Now, his moment on the final drive that might have led to a sack will tarnish things a bit, but Rico Dowdle is a talented ball carrier and the Cowboys are now realizing it in real time. His decisive cuts are probably his best attribute.
NEXT GEN THROW CHART - COOPER RUSH
I just think that the Cowboys passing game is way too limited right now and I realize people are jumping to conclusions with guys like Jalen Tolbert and Jonathan Mingo, but folks, this passing game has almost nothing outside the numbers. I don't know how we can honestly evaluate NFL wide receivers in an offense that cannot use anything wide. The fact that Lamb still gets as many touches is a credit to an offensive design around these very small boundaries. They are so limited.
Beyond that, Brock Hoffman was very good again, Cooper Beebe left with a concussion, and both Chuma Edoga and Tyler Smith struggled in pass protection.
The Defensive Overview vs the Bengals
The defense had a very rough day against a very good QB/WR combo. In fact, you may not see anything like Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase on your schedule anywhere. This is what Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams had about five years ago. They just can beat you any single way you want and they will make it look like there is nothing you can do to stop them.
The Cowboys played lots of man coverage because they had their guys back, but they definitely do not have the power to slow down this group by “manning up” on them.
This was just not a fair fight as Chase destroyed everyone. We will show you the interception below, but I will tell you that the only Burrow mistake was a heat-check. He was so good.
In fact, here is the heat-map below. Look at all the green dots on the left sideline and imagine how many times you can run the same route at the same corners before they stop giving you so much space.
I think this calls for a video montage. Here are all of the “medium to big” receptions for Chase. I strung them all together and Kevin Utz gave Chase the circle so that we don’t have to show you each one individually and be here all week.
Try to enjoy Diggs and Bland being taken to school from a WR that might get $40m a year this summer.
Hard to believe that is all from just one game. They make it look so easy. I guess if I was a Bengals fan it would make me crazy to watch that and see the team is about to miss the playoffs for the second straight year. That is truly rough to read.
Meanwhile, Micah Parsons was fantastic. But, he also had zero sacks. So, this is the equivalent of “hard outs” in baseball. Great process, but no result. Just keep chopping wood, but I wanted to show you what 12 pressures looks like from one pass rusher because it isn’t normal.
Also, you can really see how good Burrow is at avoiding Parsons and still making a good throw. Those are two of the best at work at the same time and credit Burrow for dealing with Parsons and avoiding too much damage. I would like to tell you that there is more to the Bengals offense on Monday, but aside from a few moments of Chase Brown, this was a Cowboys defense that could not stop one receiver.
It looks like the 9th biggest day for a receiver against the Cowboys as he had more than 190 from scrimmage and 177 receiving. Almost knocked Kadarius Toney down a level. Stathead with the query:
Obviously, most of the Cowboys world wants to mourn the loss of Overshown for the season and what appears to be claims that 2025 is in major jeopardy. I definitely don’t want to get into massive speculation about his future, but there is no question that it is a very bothersome situation that affects so many things. Most of all, he is a fun player who ends his season right near the top of our splash play leaderboard. He isn’t just a young prospect, he was a top play-maker already. So, we need him back and at this special level of play as soon as possible.
There is no way to sugar-coat it. Overshown was so much fun this year. Now, Marist Liufau can play more and maybe they will be side by side as starters before too long.
Obviously, much more on that in yesterday’s piece.
SPLASH PLAYS
Season Leaderboard
Plays that defined this game - Xs and Os breakdown
Ok, I grabbed a decent amount here. Let’s get to work.
1Q - 8:59 - 4-1-CIN 11 - C.Rush pass short right to C.Lamb for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
I loved this 4th down for a number of reasons. Mike McCarthy knows that he has to go for these 4th and shorts to have any chance to win. I then love that the play selection is not one to get the yard, but one that knows that if you have the stones, this is where a deeper throw into the end zone should be available. On the right you have 88-Lamb and 1-Tolbert stacked and mirrored with the two receivers on the left. Cincinnati is blitzing the house so you have Cover 0. From there, Tolbert goes out wide, knowing that all you need is that for the 1st down. If his guy follows, Lamb will have the entire half of the end zone to out leverage 21-Hilton. At that point, Hilton seems to know he is cooked and now Cooper Rush just has to get the ball in bounds. Touchdown.
2Q - 15:00 - 2-10-CIN 12 - C.Rush pass short left intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by G.Stone
Ok, this one is where the game started getting a little weird. Rush was really comfortable, but for some reason, there are moments where his light switch flips and he starts having trouble again. Many times, trouble is found when you determine you are fitting the ball into Lamb. You have the slant/wheel where Lamb is outside and Ferguson will run the wheel route around him. CIN is playing man, so this will work well if you hit Ferguson over the top. Instead, Lamb is the one who is in the collision, yet the ball goes there. But, he isn’t open. He just ran into Ferguson’s man and is thrown off his route. Rush fires it into traffic and Geno Stone has a pick. I just think it is a poor read by the QB to throw that ball in there. He isn’t the first Cowboys QB to find problems when we determine to force the ball to 88.
2Q - 9:56 - 4-3-DAL 44 - J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to C.Brown (D.Overshown).
To the defense’s credit, they were able to get a stop back from the Bengals after that interception with a 4th down spot. We can see again that DeMarvion Overshown is a splash play generator and a matchup on critical downs with speedy RBs and that is something Dallas has been looking for years. 4th down here and Joe Burrow wants Chase, but Jourdan Lewis is all over him on the release and Burrow doesn’t have time so he switches quick to Brown underneath and Overshown gets there to make sure that there is no play made. Well done and the defense gets a stop.
2Q - 3:36 - 2-5-DAL 19 - J.Burrow pass short left to C.Brown for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This play that was late in the half was a bit demoralizing because the Bengals aren’t trying to score a touchdown, but you help cause that when a simple wide run concept that technically is a passing play is there just to test your wide run defense. Can you protect your flank? For me, I am checking the speed of 50-Kendricks, the determination of 7-Diggs (a frequent target by opponents on these plays. We must note they always choose his side), and the angles and technique of 6-Wilson as a safety coming down to save the day. I think Brown is just too fast for them. I need more from Diggs, but I thought he looked hurt on Monday still. Anyway, not great defense.
3Q - 10:37 - 2-3-CIN 3 - C.Rush pass short right to B.Cooks for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
I enjoyed this because the Cowboys are trying to show the Bengals the same look they showed the Giants last week on the touchdown to Cooks. So, they line up the same way at the same spot in the deep red zone and the Bengals are saying this is that same play! Alert crosser to Cooks! Here it comes! The Bengals are so proud of the film study work because they know the play. Then, the Cowboys run the change-up where Cooks starts to cross and then slams on the breaks and heads back to the corner. The corner on Cooks is our old friend 27-Josh Newton from TCU. Newton is a rookie and falls for Cooks fake and holds him. It won’t matter because Cooks gets open and Rush hits him for another touchdown which was a nice adjustment from the Cowboys to use last week to set this up. The game is now tied at 17-17.
3Q - 7:01 - 2-9-DAL 38 - J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for J.Chase INTERCEPTED by M.Hooker at DAL 18
The simple analysis of this play is that Joe Burrow had a heat check and decided that even though Ja’Marr isn’t open and we called a bad play into a Cover 4, Burrow just says that he is willing to trust his arm and try to fit a ball into a space you should probably not attempt. Nice job by Malik Hooker to make the play and Eric Kendricks is tired of getting beat on digs right behind him all season, so his drop helps make this happen. But, more than anything, Burrow forced a ball that he knows not to throw.
4Q - 7:28 - 3-13-CIN 46 - J.Burrow sacked at CIN 39 for -7 yards (sack split by Do.Wilson and M.Liufau).
This is wild to me that Mike Zimmer is calling a pretty dangerous blitz on 3rd and 13. But, he also probably feels like he cannot allow Burrow any time. Also, if we want to feel bad about Overshown, it makes sense. But, the one piece of good information we have from the remainder of that game is that Marist Liufau is also a very nice prospect that will get more looks now. There are things that he cannot do that Overshown can, but when it comes to 3rd down pass rush from the A-Gap, he will be great. And he proves it on consecutive 3rd and longs. Here, Wilson and Liufau get the ball free.
4Q - 2:24 - 3-19-CIN 37 - J.Burrow sacked at CIN 29 for -8 yards (M.Liufau).
What is great about this 3rd and long is that Burrow is expecting that same 7-man pressure, but Dallas does not bring it this time. 3rd and 19, it would be even crazier to send everyone in a 20-20 game. They do not, but this confuses the coverage a small bit and Burrow takes a coverage sack because he knows 3rd and 19 is no time for him to get crazy. It is hard to say Liufau beat his man, because his man did not really try to block him. But, the sacks all count the same and he will take this one. That was the play before the punt.
The punt was the play of the game, but I wrote the entire piece yesterday centered around that one play, so I will send you back to yesterday if you want that full breakdown (and then some).
4Q - 1:09 - 1-10-DAL 40 - J.Burrow pass short right to J.Chase for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the easy, easy winning touchdown for Burrow to Chase. It did feel inevitable, but being from the win-or-die-trying school, I wish this coverage was not so incredibly soft. Easy for me to say against Ja’Marr Chase, but DaRon Bland was so far off of him that it took one small shift in body weight and he was gone and no help was close to helping. Just absurdly simple on 1st and 10.
4Q - 0:24 - 4-7-DAL 48 - C.Rush pass incomplete deep right to J.Ferguson [B.Hill].
This shows two things on the final play of the game. One, 91-Trey Hendrickson just sacked Rush and therefore a few seconds later, Rush doesn’t want that to happen again. Also, being 4th and 7, it is interesting to me that now he is not forcing the ball to CeeDee Lamb. Now, he is not even looking at Lamb, because if Rush can see Lamb, he can see that he is not being covered. I am not saying Lamb runs to the end zone, but I am saying that if Rush can see him over the middle, this game might have still had a final chapter.
Alas, like most of 2024, Monday Night was not to be.
Looking at the close battle against the Bengals and the Xs and Os that went into it.
Bob Sturm
Dec 11, 2024
Our objectives today:
- The Offensive Overview vs the Bengals
- Rico Dowdle continues
- The Defensive Overview vs the Bengals
- Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase destroy the Cowboys
- Plays that defined this game - Xs and Os breakdown
The Offensive Overview vs the Bengals
The Cowboys offense definitely misses Dak Prescott. They just have such a stunted passing game that lacks verticality or powerful throws. Cooper Rush can run the offense, but the offense he runs is a significantly different.
Yet, the rushing game continues to tease us into believing they might be continuing to figure things out.
For me, the Cowboys showed some good things at the start of each half, but then, as the game left the script, it appears that Rush and the offense began to hit walls of resistance as each half went along. See below, the two blue box levels would show the spots in each half where the offense started producing results. But, then, it would just end and the drives were ineffective again.
The issues with the offense seem to repeat each week. The Cowboys now appear to be better at running the ball, but they still seem to pass the ball way too much. I am sure the coaches will tell you when you run the ball is as important to how you run the ball, so I don’t want to act like that isn’t part of this.
For instance, CeeDee Lamb as a threat can help you run the ball because of his gravity, but in order for the gravity to have strength, you have to show you will make him such a part of the attack. And to do that, you must pass the ball. So, running it more might diminish returns. In other words, people say to stop passing so much, but that actually might be why the run plays work better. I guess I am just saying I think critics lack nuance on this stuff. Play calling is more about that specific play. Now, all that said, I would like to see more runs because Rico Dowdle was so much more effective than Cooper Rush was on Monday. And given the margin of defeat, maybe moving that balance changes the outcome.
It was another career day for Rico Dowdle. He has two career days over 100 yards and they are last week and this week. He was so impressive and we now start to see what we thought might be possible this summer if they just give him the ball and allow him to get 15-20 touches to see what he can get going. Just look at this cut-up.
So many successful runs and I really continue to like his energy. Now, his moment on the final drive that might have led to a sack will tarnish things a bit, but Rico Dowdle is a talented ball carrier and the Cowboys are now realizing it in real time. His decisive cuts are probably his best attribute.
NEXT GEN THROW CHART - COOPER RUSH
I just think that the Cowboys passing game is way too limited right now and I realize people are jumping to conclusions with guys like Jalen Tolbert and Jonathan Mingo, but folks, this passing game has almost nothing outside the numbers. I don't know how we can honestly evaluate NFL wide receivers in an offense that cannot use anything wide. The fact that Lamb still gets as many touches is a credit to an offensive design around these very small boundaries. They are so limited.
Beyond that, Brock Hoffman was very good again, Cooper Beebe left with a concussion, and both Chuma Edoga and Tyler Smith struggled in pass protection.
The Defensive Overview vs the Bengals
The defense had a very rough day against a very good QB/WR combo. In fact, you may not see anything like Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase on your schedule anywhere. This is what Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams had about five years ago. They just can beat you any single way you want and they will make it look like there is nothing you can do to stop them.
The Cowboys played lots of man coverage because they had their guys back, but they definitely do not have the power to slow down this group by “manning up” on them.
This was just not a fair fight as Chase destroyed everyone. We will show you the interception below, but I will tell you that the only Burrow mistake was a heat-check. He was so good.
In fact, here is the heat-map below. Look at all the green dots on the left sideline and imagine how many times you can run the same route at the same corners before they stop giving you so much space.
I think this calls for a video montage. Here are all of the “medium to big” receptions for Chase. I strung them all together and Kevin Utz gave Chase the circle so that we don’t have to show you each one individually and be here all week.
Try to enjoy Diggs and Bland being taken to school from a WR that might get $40m a year this summer.
Hard to believe that is all from just one game. They make it look so easy. I guess if I was a Bengals fan it would make me crazy to watch that and see the team is about to miss the playoffs for the second straight year. That is truly rough to read.
Meanwhile, Micah Parsons was fantastic. But, he also had zero sacks. So, this is the equivalent of “hard outs” in baseball. Great process, but no result. Just keep chopping wood, but I wanted to show you what 12 pressures looks like from one pass rusher because it isn’t normal.
Also, you can really see how good Burrow is at avoiding Parsons and still making a good throw. Those are two of the best at work at the same time and credit Burrow for dealing with Parsons and avoiding too much damage. I would like to tell you that there is more to the Bengals offense on Monday, but aside from a few moments of Chase Brown, this was a Cowboys defense that could not stop one receiver.
It looks like the 9th biggest day for a receiver against the Cowboys as he had more than 190 from scrimmage and 177 receiving. Almost knocked Kadarius Toney down a level. Stathead with the query:
Obviously, most of the Cowboys world wants to mourn the loss of Overshown for the season and what appears to be claims that 2025 is in major jeopardy. I definitely don’t want to get into massive speculation about his future, but there is no question that it is a very bothersome situation that affects so many things. Most of all, he is a fun player who ends his season right near the top of our splash play leaderboard. He isn’t just a young prospect, he was a top play-maker already. So, we need him back and at this special level of play as soon as possible.
There is no way to sugar-coat it. Overshown was so much fun this year. Now, Marist Liufau can play more and maybe they will be side by side as starters before too long.
Obviously, much more on that in yesterday’s piece.
SPLASH PLAYS
Season Leaderboard
Plays that defined this game - Xs and Os breakdown
Ok, I grabbed a decent amount here. Let’s get to work.
1Q - 8:59 - 4-1-CIN 11 - C.Rush pass short right to C.Lamb for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
I loved this 4th down for a number of reasons. Mike McCarthy knows that he has to go for these 4th and shorts to have any chance to win. I then love that the play selection is not one to get the yard, but one that knows that if you have the stones, this is where a deeper throw into the end zone should be available. On the right you have 88-Lamb and 1-Tolbert stacked and mirrored with the two receivers on the left. Cincinnati is blitzing the house so you have Cover 0. From there, Tolbert goes out wide, knowing that all you need is that for the 1st down. If his guy follows, Lamb will have the entire half of the end zone to out leverage 21-Hilton. At that point, Hilton seems to know he is cooked and now Cooper Rush just has to get the ball in bounds. Touchdown.
2Q - 15:00 - 2-10-CIN 12 - C.Rush pass short left intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by G.Stone
Ok, this one is where the game started getting a little weird. Rush was really comfortable, but for some reason, there are moments where his light switch flips and he starts having trouble again. Many times, trouble is found when you determine you are fitting the ball into Lamb. You have the slant/wheel where Lamb is outside and Ferguson will run the wheel route around him. CIN is playing man, so this will work well if you hit Ferguson over the top. Instead, Lamb is the one who is in the collision, yet the ball goes there. But, he isn’t open. He just ran into Ferguson’s man and is thrown off his route. Rush fires it into traffic and Geno Stone has a pick. I just think it is a poor read by the QB to throw that ball in there. He isn’t the first Cowboys QB to find problems when we determine to force the ball to 88.
2Q - 9:56 - 4-3-DAL 44 - J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to C.Brown (D.Overshown).
To the defense’s credit, they were able to get a stop back from the Bengals after that interception with a 4th down spot. We can see again that DeMarvion Overshown is a splash play generator and a matchup on critical downs with speedy RBs and that is something Dallas has been looking for years. 4th down here and Joe Burrow wants Chase, but Jourdan Lewis is all over him on the release and Burrow doesn’t have time so he switches quick to Brown underneath and Overshown gets there to make sure that there is no play made. Well done and the defense gets a stop.
2Q - 3:36 - 2-5-DAL 19 - J.Burrow pass short left to C.Brown for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This play that was late in the half was a bit demoralizing because the Bengals aren’t trying to score a touchdown, but you help cause that when a simple wide run concept that technically is a passing play is there just to test your wide run defense. Can you protect your flank? For me, I am checking the speed of 50-Kendricks, the determination of 7-Diggs (a frequent target by opponents on these plays. We must note they always choose his side), and the angles and technique of 6-Wilson as a safety coming down to save the day. I think Brown is just too fast for them. I need more from Diggs, but I thought he looked hurt on Monday still. Anyway, not great defense.
3Q - 10:37 - 2-3-CIN 3 - C.Rush pass short right to B.Cooks for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
I enjoyed this because the Cowboys are trying to show the Bengals the same look they showed the Giants last week on the touchdown to Cooks. So, they line up the same way at the same spot in the deep red zone and the Bengals are saying this is that same play! Alert crosser to Cooks! Here it comes! The Bengals are so proud of the film study work because they know the play. Then, the Cowboys run the change-up where Cooks starts to cross and then slams on the breaks and heads back to the corner. The corner on Cooks is our old friend 27-Josh Newton from TCU. Newton is a rookie and falls for Cooks fake and holds him. It won’t matter because Cooks gets open and Rush hits him for another touchdown which was a nice adjustment from the Cowboys to use last week to set this up. The game is now tied at 17-17.
3Q - 7:01 - 2-9-DAL 38 - J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for J.Chase INTERCEPTED by M.Hooker at DAL 18
The simple analysis of this play is that Joe Burrow had a heat check and decided that even though Ja’Marr isn’t open and we called a bad play into a Cover 4, Burrow just says that he is willing to trust his arm and try to fit a ball into a space you should probably not attempt. Nice job by Malik Hooker to make the play and Eric Kendricks is tired of getting beat on digs right behind him all season, so his drop helps make this happen. But, more than anything, Burrow forced a ball that he knows not to throw.
4Q - 7:28 - 3-13-CIN 46 - J.Burrow sacked at CIN 39 for -7 yards (sack split by Do.Wilson and M.Liufau).
This is wild to me that Mike Zimmer is calling a pretty dangerous blitz on 3rd and 13. But, he also probably feels like he cannot allow Burrow any time. Also, if we want to feel bad about Overshown, it makes sense. But, the one piece of good information we have from the remainder of that game is that Marist Liufau is also a very nice prospect that will get more looks now. There are things that he cannot do that Overshown can, but when it comes to 3rd down pass rush from the A-Gap, he will be great. And he proves it on consecutive 3rd and longs. Here, Wilson and Liufau get the ball free.
4Q - 2:24 - 3-19-CIN 37 - J.Burrow sacked at CIN 29 for -8 yards (M.Liufau).
What is great about this 3rd and long is that Burrow is expecting that same 7-man pressure, but Dallas does not bring it this time. 3rd and 19, it would be even crazier to send everyone in a 20-20 game. They do not, but this confuses the coverage a small bit and Burrow takes a coverage sack because he knows 3rd and 19 is no time for him to get crazy. It is hard to say Liufau beat his man, because his man did not really try to block him. But, the sacks all count the same and he will take this one. That was the play before the punt.
The punt was the play of the game, but I wrote the entire piece yesterday centered around that one play, so I will send you back to yesterday if you want that full breakdown (and then some).
4Q - 1:09 - 1-10-DAL 40 - J.Burrow pass short right to J.Chase for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the easy, easy winning touchdown for Burrow to Chase. It did feel inevitable, but being from the win-or-die-trying school, I wish this coverage was not so incredibly soft. Easy for me to say against Ja’Marr Chase, but DaRon Bland was so far off of him that it took one small shift in body weight and he was gone and no help was close to helping. Just absurdly simple on 1st and 10.
4Q - 0:24 - 4-7-DAL 48 - C.Rush pass incomplete deep right to J.Ferguson [B.Hill].
This shows two things on the final play of the game. One, 91-Trey Hendrickson just sacked Rush and therefore a few seconds later, Rush doesn’t want that to happen again. Also, being 4th and 7, it is interesting to me that now he is not forcing the ball to CeeDee Lamb. Now, he is not even looking at Lamb, because if Rush can see Lamb, he can see that he is not being covered. I am not saying Lamb runs to the end zone, but I am saying that if Rush can see him over the middle, this game might have still had a final chapter.
Alas, like most of 2024, Monday Night was not to be.