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Decoding McCarthy, Week 8 - Feed The Studs
The Cowboys offensive evolution is beginning to emerge before Philadelphia.
BOB STURM
OCT 31, 2023
We think something good is starting to happen for the Cowboys offensive attack. For the first time all season, we are starting to get an idea of what they are capable of.
I am reminded about a conversation I had with Jason Garrett. I asked him about a play-calling internal tug-of-war which is waged every season with every team. It centers around idealism vs pragmatism. Now, in the truest senses of the words, this conversation might get me out of my depths quickly.
But, here at Decoding, the conversation is basically this:
Idealism represents who we would like to be. This means, in a perfect world, my offense will look like this. I have these guys and we run these plays and we beat you this way. I bet this is what teams discuss in the offseason when everyone is hypothetically healthy and confident.
Pragmatism’s approach to offense is not that at all. Pragmatism’s offense is a reasonable conclusion after getting humiliated in San Francisco and returning home to admit that “Guys, this isn’t working. We need to make some changes here quick.”
Garrett had some insight that made me look for this every year and maybe I need to go back and get his exact thoughts for a future piece. But, it centered around knowing when your best intentions aren’t going to net be your best results. And stubbornness to prove you are right is not better than winning football games and getting your offense in the best concepts so you can be the best version of yourself. That cliche gets thrown around a lot in our world, but in football, it probably means that even if you do want to be a ground and pound team that bullies teams in the streets, maybe you don’t have the offensive line you thought you did. Maybe, your best road to winning is by simply telling your capable QB to throw the ball more to your two most capable weapons and seeing how far that can take you.
If the Cowboys left San Francisco with any big ideas, I think that was it. They had a frustrated offense that literally had no success. Their best player was upset about not being used more and your QB was trying to be a square peg in a round hole.
So, did they really change around the furniture in these two games since?
I think the answer is yes.
Let’s look at a few concepts this morning.
COWBOYS OFFENSE WEEKS 1-5:
It was almost like they wanted to be the 1992 Cowboys and quiet down the Dak throws too many interceptions narrative, which we have spent plenty of time demonstrating that it wasn’t that big of deal in the first place.
Well, more than even just the 49ers game, it never felt like the Cowboys felt right about the direction of the offense. And neither did we. Even with some decent numbers, even on their best day, they still looked, “off,” for lack of a better term.
Now, this is only two games, but it feels like McCarthy read the long-time Bobby Petrino-ism which designs an offense around the general premise — “feed the studs.” That isn’t the most complicated way to say, let’s do what are good at doing more and less of what isn’t working. How do we do that? Get the ball to our best players more often. Does that make sense?
Here is what we are seeing in two games so far – and yes, it is just two games.
COWBOYS OFFENSE WEEKS 6-8:
First, let’s identify the studs. In my mind, the two most electric playmakers for this offense are CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. See if you can see any changes in targets in the last two weeks:
Seven targets per game for Lamb has become 10.5 and I think we can almost throw out the first half of the Chargers game because the second half is where they really leaned into the idea that they should stop using Lamb as a decoy and just keep feeding him until they are in the end zone.
Here is Cooks. This one might be using him more vertically than short so much. Let him do what he does and that is affect the deeper parts of a secondary. I am not telling you to go sign him for your fantasy team, but Cooks has come alive the last few weeks and it has materially changed this offense’s teeth.
Above are the team numbers and average gain per pass has cranked up the average yards per play for the entire offense. They are passing more from running looks and the offense is starting to make more sense to me.
This is a weird game to fully examine and we cannot ignore the pass protection issues from early, but let’s set it aside for the film study.
The general point is that the Cowboys were excellent early in the game passing the ball and the full game numbers may be skewed a bit because they were so far ahead, but I think the signs are clear that they are figuring out who they are. Before you get upset that it took them this long, I would like to say that “growing into your identity” is a normal maturation that happens in season at all levels of football. Very seldom do you have a plan in April and it remains your plan on Thanksgiving.
They are in all in the labs to see what works and how often it works.
But, against the Rams, the “feed the studs” offense was cooking nicely. The fourth quarter possessions were about getting out of there healthy and the per-play and per-drive numbers suffered.
That’s ok. It didn’t matter.
Lots of green and no red above is very attractive. We also like the 57% pass/43% run on 1st downs. This is how this team needs to play football.
DAK PRESCOTT NEXT GEN THROW CHART
This was one of Dak’s best games in years. PFF gave him a grade in the 90s which is elite and it is his third grade that high in the last four games (I will give you one guess which game was not “elite.”) But, finding the vertical stretch, using the WR’s more, proportionally, and not waiting until third-and-long are all wonderful.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
Another sign of good offensive healthy is when 11 personnel is up over 7 yards per play. That is how this team should be built and they were destroying the Rams with it. This keeps teams in nickel or dime and should actually make running the ball easier when you do it.
Again, I know the McCarthy/Jones/Jones braintrust would rather get behind Nate Newton and Larry Allen and drive the ball right at people, but we have shown that isn’t happening right now.
First-Down Run Game
I looked at this chart and started feeling good about the run game because 4.5 yards per carry on 1st down is great. But, there are a few jet sweeps to WR’s and a few QB runs that pump the tires here. Nothing wrong with those concepts, but there were very few inside runs attempted on first down and the results were not great.
So, what is the reaction as a coach? Stop calling what doesn’t work and lean into what does work. If Lamb and Cooks are threats to the edge and Dak can help on his feet, do it more.
Pragmatism!
Ok, I said I would keep this short and I obviously never actually do. But, let’s look at some film and call it a day.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 15:00 - 1st and 10 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 20 for -5 yards (M.Hoecht).
First play as a sack is never great. The Rams are sitting on the slant and when Dak sees that the spy is cutting off each slant, he decides to hold the ball. The problem is that Chuma Edoga is being defeated way too quickly by 97-Michael Hoecht at the bottom of the screen. Edoga had this clear poor snap, but was otherwise decent at left tackle in place of Tyron Smith.
Two plays later…
1Q - 13:46 - 3rd and 11 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 20 for -4 yards (B.Young). PENALTY on LA-Q.Lake, Illegal Contact, 6 yards, enforced at DAL 24 - No Play.
Third-and-long now. Here is the very generous illegal contact play that saved another sack. Here, we see Terence Steele getting beaten quickly by Byron Young up top and Hoecht is stunting inside with Tony Pollard’s chip attempt not going well, either. This sack may not count, but Dak’s shoulder sure felt it.
1Q - 13:23 - 1st and 10 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 23 for -7 yards (A.Donald).
This was getting ridiculous, because here is the very next play. 12 personnel and 92-Jonah Williams is sitting on the rollout. He is generally the unblocked rusher who you want to follow the flow of the play and that would give Dak time. Unfortunately, the timing was poor and now Dak has been hit hard three times in the first two minutes. Aaron Donald puts him right on his right shoulder with authority and this is not a fun time at all.
Dallas looks like a mess to start.
1Q - 10:30 - 3rd and 6 - LA 37 - (10:30) (Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short left to B.Cooks to LA 18 for 19 yards (D.Kendrick).
They got put in a 3rd and 6 in this spot late in the drive and they dialed up a familiar play from late in the Chargers game. Here is what 3-Brandin Cooks can do for you and the Cowboys are seeing that his gift is the ability to run “go” routes vertically combined with comebacks or hitches. Here, you get the corner on his heels and stop down past the sticks for an easy conversion.
And here is the same play – merely a Lamb route alteration – vs the Chargers.
4Q - 3:30 - 3rd and 11 - Prescott to Cooks for 11 yards.
The very next play, the Cowboys run another familiar play.
1Q - 9:49 - 1st and 10 - LA 18 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to J.Ferguson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
There are plenty of variations of where Prescott can go with the ball, but the basic concept is that the tight end, 87-Ferguson, is the primary against “MFO” or middle field open which means a split-safety coverage. If it is open, then the linebacker tries to carry Ferguson on a vertical. Prescott wants that matchup because this is one of his best routes to throw and you either lead him if he has a step or put it on his back shoulder. Ferguson makes a very nice play on the ball, but the placement here is perfect. Exactly how you want to run it.
Which reminds us of the New England game when they tried the same concept to Luke Schoonmaker.
Middle field open, linebacker chasing. All day long. The throw was there for sure. Schoonmaker will catch that next time, we’d wager. Its a tight window league.
2Q - 12:45 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Touchdown to Lamb after the big return from Kavontae Turpin. 3x1 and the focus here is the upper safety, 2 - Russ Yeast. This is a concept where 87-Ferguson runs a in route, with Lamb running a post behind it. They will high/low Yeast, so if he steps up to Ferguson, Lamb is open. If he drops to Lamb, Ferguson is open under. Prescott waits and then Yeast decides it. Touchdown to Lamb.
Feed the studs.
2Q - 2:34 - 3rd and 8 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the 22-yard touchdown to Lamb before halftime. I think the Rams are trying to play Cover 4, but clearly they bust because the safety to this side of the field is affected by Ferguson in front of him (this seems a trend!) and they basically leave Lamb uncovered. Prescott rolls out and finds him on the run. Pretty big fan of seeing Prescott on the run, but this is just poor defense, too.
4Q - 12:24 - 2nd and 5 - LA 25 D.Prescott pass deep right to B.Cooks for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
And here is the TD to Cooks. This is a stutter and go where we see that Cooks still has the world class wheels and we need more of this. The story is that Cooks knew this would work well and they trusted him and went to it. Cooks then delivered and you can see that they are able to realize that him vertically is a winning concept.
Anyway, that is plenty for today. Many are wondering if the Cowboys will go get anything for today’s trade deadline and if you can find a solid tackle, go for it. But, it is like starting pitching. There are 32 teams looking for offensive linemen and almost nobody is moving them. We call this a seller’s market and you will way overpay. I don’t think you can pay the prices they want, so I don’t think Dallas will do much here in this market. You can’t shop for offensive linemen in season. Prices are always nuts.
The Cowboys offensive evolution is beginning to emerge before Philadelphia.
BOB STURM
OCT 31, 2023
We think something good is starting to happen for the Cowboys offensive attack. For the first time all season, we are starting to get an idea of what they are capable of.
I am reminded about a conversation I had with Jason Garrett. I asked him about a play-calling internal tug-of-war which is waged every season with every team. It centers around idealism vs pragmatism. Now, in the truest senses of the words, this conversation might get me out of my depths quickly.
But, here at Decoding, the conversation is basically this:
Idealism represents who we would like to be. This means, in a perfect world, my offense will look like this. I have these guys and we run these plays and we beat you this way. I bet this is what teams discuss in the offseason when everyone is hypothetically healthy and confident.
Pragmatism’s approach to offense is not that at all. Pragmatism’s offense is a reasonable conclusion after getting humiliated in San Francisco and returning home to admit that “Guys, this isn’t working. We need to make some changes here quick.”
Garrett had some insight that made me look for this every year and maybe I need to go back and get his exact thoughts for a future piece. But, it centered around knowing when your best intentions aren’t going to net be your best results. And stubbornness to prove you are right is not better than winning football games and getting your offense in the best concepts so you can be the best version of yourself. That cliche gets thrown around a lot in our world, but in football, it probably means that even if you do want to be a ground and pound team that bullies teams in the streets, maybe you don’t have the offensive line you thought you did. Maybe, your best road to winning is by simply telling your capable QB to throw the ball more to your two most capable weapons and seeing how far that can take you.
If the Cowboys left San Francisco with any big ideas, I think that was it. They had a frustrated offense that literally had no success. Their best player was upset about not being used more and your QB was trying to be a square peg in a round hole.
So, did they really change around the furniture in these two games since?
I think the answer is yes.
Let’s look at a few concepts this morning.
COWBOYS OFFENSE WEEKS 1-5:
- Under Center: 45.3% (3rd in NFL)
- In Pocket passing: 87.2% (9th)
- High YAC/Low ADOT: 52.1%, (4th)
- Designed runs: 4th highest
- Run Yard % of total yards: 3rd highest
It was almost like they wanted to be the 1992 Cowboys and quiet down the Dak throws too many interceptions narrative, which we have spent plenty of time demonstrating that it wasn’t that big of deal in the first place.
Well, more than even just the 49ers game, it never felt like the Cowboys felt right about the direction of the offense. And neither did we. Even with some decent numbers, even on their best day, they still looked, “off,” for lack of a better term.
Now, this is only two games, but it feels like McCarthy read the long-time Bobby Petrino-ism which designs an offense around the general premise — “feed the studs.” That isn’t the most complicated way to say, let’s do what are good at doing more and less of what isn’t working. How do we do that? Get the ball to our best players more often. Does that make sense?
Here is what we are seeing in two games so far – and yes, it is just two games.
COWBOYS OFFENSE WEEKS 6-8:
- Much higher shotgun: 66.1% (19th)
- QB Out of pocket more: 18% (7th)
- Low YAC, High ADOT: 45.5% (22nd)
- Designed runs: 25th highest
- Run Yard % of total yards: 23rd highest
First, let’s identify the studs. In my mind, the two most electric playmakers for this offense are CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. See if you can see any changes in targets in the last two weeks:
Seven targets per game for Lamb has become 10.5 and I think we can almost throw out the first half of the Chargers game because the second half is where they really leaned into the idea that they should stop using Lamb as a decoy and just keep feeding him until they are in the end zone.
Here is Cooks. This one might be using him more vertically than short so much. Let him do what he does and that is affect the deeper parts of a secondary. I am not telling you to go sign him for your fantasy team, but Cooks has come alive the last few weeks and it has materially changed this offense’s teeth.
Above are the team numbers and average gain per pass has cranked up the average yards per play for the entire offense. They are passing more from running looks and the offense is starting to make more sense to me.
This is a weird game to fully examine and we cannot ignore the pass protection issues from early, but let’s set it aside for the film study.
The general point is that the Cowboys were excellent early in the game passing the ball and the full game numbers may be skewed a bit because they were so far ahead, but I think the signs are clear that they are figuring out who they are. Before you get upset that it took them this long, I would like to say that “growing into your identity” is a normal maturation that happens in season at all levels of football. Very seldom do you have a plan in April and it remains your plan on Thanksgiving.
They are in all in the labs to see what works and how often it works.
But, against the Rams, the “feed the studs” offense was cooking nicely. The fourth quarter possessions were about getting out of there healthy and the per-play and per-drive numbers suffered.
That’s ok. It didn’t matter.
Lots of green and no red above is very attractive. We also like the 57% pass/43% run on 1st downs. This is how this team needs to play football.
DAK PRESCOTT NEXT GEN THROW CHART
This was one of Dak’s best games in years. PFF gave him a grade in the 90s which is elite and it is his third grade that high in the last four games (I will give you one guess which game was not “elite.”) But, finding the vertical stretch, using the WR’s more, proportionally, and not waiting until third-and-long are all wonderful.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
Another sign of good offensive healthy is when 11 personnel is up over 7 yards per play. That is how this team should be built and they were destroying the Rams with it. This keeps teams in nickel or dime and should actually make running the ball easier when you do it.
Again, I know the McCarthy/Jones/Jones braintrust would rather get behind Nate Newton and Larry Allen and drive the ball right at people, but we have shown that isn’t happening right now.
First-Down Run Game
I looked at this chart and started feeling good about the run game because 4.5 yards per carry on 1st down is great. But, there are a few jet sweeps to WR’s and a few QB runs that pump the tires here. Nothing wrong with those concepts, but there were very few inside runs attempted on first down and the results were not great.
So, what is the reaction as a coach? Stop calling what doesn’t work and lean into what does work. If Lamb and Cooks are threats to the edge and Dak can help on his feet, do it more.
Pragmatism!
Ok, I said I would keep this short and I obviously never actually do. But, let’s look at some film and call it a day.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 15:00 - 1st and 10 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 20 for -5 yards (M.Hoecht).
First play as a sack is never great. The Rams are sitting on the slant and when Dak sees that the spy is cutting off each slant, he decides to hold the ball. The problem is that Chuma Edoga is being defeated way too quickly by 97-Michael Hoecht at the bottom of the screen. Edoga had this clear poor snap, but was otherwise decent at left tackle in place of Tyron Smith.
Two plays later…
1Q - 13:46 - 3rd and 11 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 20 for -4 yards (B.Young). PENALTY on LA-Q.Lake, Illegal Contact, 6 yards, enforced at DAL 24 - No Play.
Third-and-long now. Here is the very generous illegal contact play that saved another sack. Here, we see Terence Steele getting beaten quickly by Byron Young up top and Hoecht is stunting inside with Tony Pollard’s chip attempt not going well, either. This sack may not count, but Dak’s shoulder sure felt it.
1Q - 13:23 - 1st and 10 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 23 for -7 yards (A.Donald).
This was getting ridiculous, because here is the very next play. 12 personnel and 92-Jonah Williams is sitting on the rollout. He is generally the unblocked rusher who you want to follow the flow of the play and that would give Dak time. Unfortunately, the timing was poor and now Dak has been hit hard three times in the first two minutes. Aaron Donald puts him right on his right shoulder with authority and this is not a fun time at all.
Dallas looks like a mess to start.
1Q - 10:30 - 3rd and 6 - LA 37 - (10:30) (Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short left to B.Cooks to LA 18 for 19 yards (D.Kendrick).
They got put in a 3rd and 6 in this spot late in the drive and they dialed up a familiar play from late in the Chargers game. Here is what 3-Brandin Cooks can do for you and the Cowboys are seeing that his gift is the ability to run “go” routes vertically combined with comebacks or hitches. Here, you get the corner on his heels and stop down past the sticks for an easy conversion.
And here is the same play – merely a Lamb route alteration – vs the Chargers.
4Q - 3:30 - 3rd and 11 - Prescott to Cooks for 11 yards.
The very next play, the Cowboys run another familiar play.
1Q - 9:49 - 1st and 10 - LA 18 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to J.Ferguson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
There are plenty of variations of where Prescott can go with the ball, but the basic concept is that the tight end, 87-Ferguson, is the primary against “MFO” or middle field open which means a split-safety coverage. If it is open, then the linebacker tries to carry Ferguson on a vertical. Prescott wants that matchup because this is one of his best routes to throw and you either lead him if he has a step or put it on his back shoulder. Ferguson makes a very nice play on the ball, but the placement here is perfect. Exactly how you want to run it.
Which reminds us of the New England game when they tried the same concept to Luke Schoonmaker.
Middle field open, linebacker chasing. All day long. The throw was there for sure. Schoonmaker will catch that next time, we’d wager. Its a tight window league.
2Q - 12:45 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Touchdown to Lamb after the big return from Kavontae Turpin. 3x1 and the focus here is the upper safety, 2 - Russ Yeast. This is a concept where 87-Ferguson runs a in route, with Lamb running a post behind it. They will high/low Yeast, so if he steps up to Ferguson, Lamb is open. If he drops to Lamb, Ferguson is open under. Prescott waits and then Yeast decides it. Touchdown to Lamb.
Feed the studs.
2Q - 2:34 - 3rd and 8 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the 22-yard touchdown to Lamb before halftime. I think the Rams are trying to play Cover 4, but clearly they bust because the safety to this side of the field is affected by Ferguson in front of him (this seems a trend!) and they basically leave Lamb uncovered. Prescott rolls out and finds him on the run. Pretty big fan of seeing Prescott on the run, but this is just poor defense, too.
4Q - 12:24 - 2nd and 5 - LA 25 D.Prescott pass deep right to B.Cooks for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
And here is the TD to Cooks. This is a stutter and go where we see that Cooks still has the world class wheels and we need more of this. The story is that Cooks knew this would work well and they trusted him and went to it. Cooks then delivered and you can see that they are able to realize that him vertically is a winning concept.
Anyway, that is plenty for today. Many are wondering if the Cowboys will go get anything for today’s trade deadline and if you can find a solid tackle, go for it. But, it is like starting pitching. There are 32 teams looking for offensive linemen and almost nobody is moving them. We call this a seller’s market and you will way overpay. I don’t think you can pay the prices they want, so I don’t think Dallas will do much here in this market. You can’t shop for offensive linemen in season. Prices are always nuts.