Sturm: Decoding McCarthy, Week 15 - All Hat, No Cattle

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Decoding McCarthy, Week 15 - All Hat, No Cattle
Another showdown game away from home, another day the offense does not deliver.

BOB STURM
DEC 19, 2023


Sunday was frustrating and I definitely don’t need to tell you that. The blame game can be played all day, but here at #SturmStack, we are not worried about making sure one party gets it to absolve another.

We have special days for each side of the ball and we can definitely handle looking at each side independently.

So, yes, you can expect that we will be giving the Defense a “F-minus” tomorrow. But, in no way, should that mean we aren’t giving the Offense a “F-minus” today.
In fact, the similarities to the game in San Francisco in Week 5 are tough to shake. This game was billed as one that should require 4 quarters and 60 minutes of bruising warfare, but the truth is that Dallas did not even get to halftime in a massive, road showdown game. Again.

The Dallas Cowboys have played 38 games in their franchise history in which they have scored 10 points or fewer AND tallied 200 yards of offense or less. Both of those benchmarks are comically low and it is the equivalent of blaming your pitching staff for a loss when you only had two baserunners.

In other words, the defense was horrendous, but they could have played their best game and we wonder if the Cowboys offense was ever going to score the 24 to 28 points that we expected them to need to win.

To put it in perspective, of those 38 games, Stathead tells us that the franchise now has a record of 1-37 on those occasions, with their last win coming 53 years ago. Apparently, they managed to beat Cleveland – on the road, no less – in December of 1970, by the score of 6-2. You will be pleased to know that Dallas was a 2.5-point favorite that day, so they did cover the spread. If anyone has a watchable copy of that game, perhaps we can review it on a rainy day in the offseason.

So, yes, my lasting memory of this debacle in Buffalo will probably be the silly effort from the Cowboys run defense, but this offense has played two games this badly in 2023 and you will not be pleased to know that they were the two games where America decided that it is “the same Ol’ Cowboys” once again.

And, who can blame them? After all those lessons learned and all those modifications to the offense over the last 2 months, I am sad to report that they had a chance to retake the test and they got the exact same score.

The drive chart tells a gloomy tale. The first and obvious takeaway is that they only had eight drives in the game — exactly two per quarter.

That should tell us how important it is to start fast. You are not going to get many bites of the apple here – especially when the game is in doubt. Just like in Week 5, by the time you touch the ball a fourth time, the game is already at 21-3. You either make a stand and bail out your defense or you die with them.

The second takeaway is equally as depressing. That is that in those first seven drives, Dallas had eight first downs TOTAL. They also had just 92 yards of total offense in the first three quarters COMBINED.

This was bad. Real bad. The fact that this team, one which has had an uncommon dominance of the rest of their schedule, has been able to put this trash out their twice in one season suggests the most bothersome conclusion of them all. That is, maybe this is a team that just can’t deal with this particular situation very well.
That situation is defined as:

A road game in a loud stadium against a team with just as much talent and confidence as you have. That opponent doesn’t fear you, but instead challenges you on both sides of the ball to take their best shot and to answer back. They want to see if you can stand in the middle of the ring with them – toe to toe – and trade punches until one of you drops. They want to drag you into the deep water and make you prove you can swim.

These occasions do not happen often, but when they do, we are seeing this performance on in repeat. And it is tougher and tougher to disagree with the critics that don’t believe they can find the solution because they don’t seem to have many ideas in this particular spot.


Above, you can probably make the case that they did a few things well on Sunday, but not many. Just one turnover is solid, but no sooner do we talk about Dak Prescott’s season of avoiding mistakes last week due to just eight turnover-worthy plays, then he rolls out four in just one game. He hasn’t had four in one game in over two years.

He was not good.

When discussing the QB of this team – especially inserting his name in the MVP conversation – requires a level of honesty to be taken seriously. And honestly, there are a number of mitigating circumstances that have not helped him in these two games at San Francisco and at Buffalo.

Guys weren’t getting open and some of the plays called at crucial moments did not offer solutions at all. Protection was poor and they put him in very difficult spots.
But, at some point, he has to be able to remind us of Dallas’ other legitimate MVP name, Luka Dončić. Luka has his own faults, for sure, but one thing that seems more than clear with him is that the entire team might be collapsing around him and he is still going to put on a show for all to see. Just last night on the road against the NBA Champion Denver Nuggets, the Mavericks did not have half their roster and were beaten badly, 130-104. But, Dončić was personally superb with 38 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists and caused anyone in that arena or watching on television to conclude that Dallas wasn’t close to winning, but that dude is that dude.

As I was pondering this piece for this morning and watching that game, it made me wish that Dak could quiet a lot of his own critical noise if he didn’t appear as helpless as his entire team in these situations. In one of these spots of high adversity, look like Dončić. Yes, it is still a loss, but people won’t instantly look at you if you appear to be a big part of the solution and not another problem.

As they say, You have to be the thermostat and not the thermometer. If your play is simply going to mirror everyone else’s, then you are not setting the temperature in the room; you are simply reflecting it.

DAK PRESCOTT NEXT GEN THROW CHART



The throw chart shows what Buffalo wanted to do defensively and what we will show you below in the film study.
  • Buffalo wanted to disguise their coverage and make post-snap adjustments to get Dak and Dallas to switch into a play only to be fooled.
  • Buffalo was aggressive to blitz the quick game and take it away. At worst, if Dak went to his normal solutions, they would be tackled immediately upon catching it. At best, they would take that escape plan away completely.
  • They wanted to use zones and populate the secondary and allow the pass rush to be mostly four-man pressures with strong coverage behind it.

Above, I want to show you the plan on the 10 3rd down passes. Yes, the Cowboys were 5-for-13, but they were very inefficient on third-down passes. This usually is their specialty as they always do well on third downs, but it betrayed them on Sunday with one big pass completed in 10 snaps with three sacks. We need to examine that film here below.

In summary, I have spent a lot of time on QB1, but the protection was not great and the ability to “get open” was not on display. Losing Zack Martin did not help, but overall, I found the running game pretty strong when they didn’t run right into a run blitz. But, as a group, it was the exact same as it was in Week 5.
Let’s get to work on some of this film. I recommend an aspirin.

FILM STUDY


1Q - 7:31 - 2nd and 6 - DAL 29 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to B.Cooks.
Second offensive snap of the game and the Cowboys take a shot. I love this approach to the game by Mike McCarthy and the play-action pass is going to give the Cowboys a chance at a 71-yard touchdown here. Brandin Cooks blows by his man and has nothing but green in front of him. Prescott has all day to see it and throw it. We have no idea what the breeze is doing to the flight of the ball and we have no idea if this was in a controlled environment like at home if this is a touchdown. But, we do know that this could be the signature play on a MVP highlight tape and perhaps changes the entire course of the game (and the season?). This would have been an unbelievable show of intent to let an entire stadium know that Dallas is ready to rumble. Instead, it falls incomplete and it was without question the closest thing they had to an easy touchdown all day long.
Huge miss is an understatement.

1Q - 6:02 - 2nd and 5 - BUF 38 - T.Pollard up the middle to BUF 29 for 9 yards (T.Rapp, J.Poyer). PENALTY on DAL-Tyl.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards
But, the drive keeps going and Dallas is in a good spot here at 2nd and 5 from the Buffalo 38. Zone read give to Pollard and he gets another chunk. Unfortunately, they get Tyler Smith for a hold here on a play that looks pretty tame, but we have to know now that Tyler Smith is on the NFL radar as this is the 18th holding penalty of his career. He is an incredible prospect, but he has to clean up his technique a bit and keep his hands on the inside of the linebacker.

1Q - 5:31 - 2nd and 12 - BUF 45 - R.Dowdle right guard to BUF 47 for -2 yards (G.Rousseau).
So, they walk them back and this is the next play on 2nd and 12. Now, here, it is a zone read again to Rico Dowdle and Terence Steele loses his block and Rosseau gets a TFL. I show you the sideline camera because I think Dak missed his read and if Dak keeps it here he may go get the 1st down by himself. Am I crazy? I might be, but he has some numbers in front of him.

This is the end zone view and you can see that Steele over-set to the outside again and the play was quickly lost here.

1Q - 4:50 - 3rd and 14 - BUF 47 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 44 for -9 yards (L.Floyd).
So, now 3rd and 14 and this is where Buffalo can kill you. They rush with four, knowing they have seven vs four in coverage. Once you have everyone covered, you just wait for the pocket to collapse. If Dak had another second, Lamb does uncover, but it is too late. Things happen fast on 3rd and really long and the best way to win in this spot is to stay out of it.

So, the first drive was incredibly promising, but the hold started a sequence that drove them all the way back to their own territory for a disappointing punt.
But, the defense holds!

1Q - 2:53 - 3rd and 10 - DAL 34 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right [S.Lawson]. Thrown away, under pressure.
Third and 10 in the second drive. Look how Buffalo is defending these 3rd and longs. Four rushers who keep Dak contained, the corners are right on Cooks and Lamb at the snap. Then, with two deep safeties, it is five defenders patrolling the sticks and waiting until the pressure eventually convinces Prescott to live to fight another series. Again, you cannot make a living on 3rd and long on the road against good defenses. Must stay ahead of the sticks.
Here comes the third series and now it is 14-0, Buffalo.

2Q - 8:36 - 1st and 10 - BUF 20 - T.Pollard right guard to BUF 11 for 9 yards (J.Poyer).
Down two scores, it is time. Look at this great 1st down run from Pollard and the offensive line. Look at my guy 66-TJ Bass moving guys as he subs in for Zack Martin. Pollard gets 9 and it sort of looked like he got 10. But, 2nd and 1 and you are marching. Everything is starting to look up….

2Q - 7:58 - 2nd and 1 - BUF 11 - T.Pollard up the middle to BUF 14 for -3 yards (T.Rapp).
I am showing you the sideline view on a run play because I think this best demonstrates the pre-snap game that Buffalo is playing with Dallas. 2nd and 1 and the Cowboys are in 12 personnel. If Dak sees 2-high, they will run. Single high and he is going for the end zone. He makes the call and now Buffalo is going to take the weakside safety 20-Rapp and insert him hard to stop a run to his side and it turns into a huge splash play for the defense.
Gross.

2Q - 7:20 - 3rd and 4 - BUF 14 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to J.Ferguson (E.Oliver, J.Phillips). Pass tipped by E.Oliver before another tip by J.Phillips.
So, next play is now 3rd and 4. This has to be money. I don’t completely understand how slow CeeDee looks running his little return route on this side and Jake Ferguson is stagnant at the sticks up top. Don’t love these concepts in such a vital situation, but they really are screwed by the Tyler Biadasz bust on protection, so Dak has to hurry and get the ball out which Ed Oliver is all over.

Just a disastrous sequence to turn a 2nd and inches into a field goal. Wasteful!

Now, 21-3. The Cowboys are left to pray for a halftime double-up.

2Q - 0:37 - 3rd and 6 - DAL 39 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to J.Ferguson (C.Lewis).
Third-and-6. Say it with me: two-high and plaster the receivers in 2-man underneath. Make the officials make a call and if they don’t, just sit in their back pockets and play physical. Dallas looks way too much like they did when we said Kellen Moore had no solutions. No conflicts and no rub routes or combinations at all on defenders. Ferguson and Dak cannot hook up and the chance at a double-up is a chance for another punt. I think the trend we keep seeing here is Dak has to use his legs more if this is how teams want to defend. That might hurt, but I am not sure there is another great choice against 4-man pressures and dropping seven.

3Q - 11:50 - 3rd and 1 - DAL 39 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 29 for -10 yards (sack split by T.Dodson and G.Rousseau).
Still 21-3. This is 3rd and 1 and the Cowboys are going to take a deep shot here. They have already decided they are going for it on 4th down, so why not? Single high and we have Lamb and Cooks both running verts. Dak has a chance here but it has got to be protected. Let’s switch views to the end zone to check on that.

The play-action is to Dowdle and he needs to get out of there because his LB is green-dogging him (if he goes, he covers. If he protects, he blitzes). But, Dowdle has to help Bass and Steele who lost to 97-Jordan Phillips as Bass took a horrible jump. Now, Dowdle has to save the day, but 25-Dodson is going to sprint at Dak the moment he sees Dowdle had to protect. Meanwhile, Dak has no short solutions because they are all protecting so you can max-protect take a shot.

There is a moment here at about :08 on the video (don’t forget slow-motion) that Dak has to be a veteran QB and just stay out of the sack. Throw it anywhere in the general direction of your guys and live to fight on 4th down. He does not and he takes a sack you cannot take. Not his fault but kinda his fault.
And finally….Now, 24-3.

3Q - 1:22 - 3rd and 9 - DAL 25 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 16 for -9 yards (J.Phillips).
This final 3rd and 9 to end the third quarter was a simple protection breakdown on a stunt where Tyler Smith and Tyron do not switch cleanly. There are opportunities to convert if the QB has a chance, but he does not. Let’s check below.

Did Pollard and Biadasz mess this up at all? I don’t think so, but maybe one of you OL coaches want to chime in. Usually, when our RB is staying in, we have a 3/3 protection and Pollard will go to the opposite side of the center. When they both turn right, it leaves 2v2 with the Smiths against 97-Jordan Phillips and 56-Leonard Floyd. Floyd runs the game to the outside and Phillips loops inside. Tyler and Tyron should obviously be handing them off to eachother, but Tyron has no chance, so Tyler stays with his guy to try to save the day. Unfortunately, when you try to help your buddy with his job, you cannot do your job and here comes 97 right down main street untouched. Pollard is wondering what he can do about a 300-pound giant running at Prescott so he puts out his arm. What a disaster.
Well, there you go. Just a rough scene in every way. Dust yourself off and get ready for Vic Fangio and Miami, because more defense like this is coming your way. If you don’t believe me, review his visit to Dallas back in 2021. It was not fun for this offense at all.
 
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