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Decoding McCarthy, Week 12 - The Best Dak Ever?
Is Mike McCarthy bringing out the best of yet another QB he coaches? It sure looks like it.
BOB STURM
NOV 27, 2023
It certainly continues to amaze and entertain to see Dak Prescott playing at the top of his game. I don’t mean to get carried away, but the numbers are difficult to argue with. As I have said in the past, this is what Mike McCarthy has done:
Dak before Week 6 (5 games): 5 TDs/4 INTs, 65.6 QBR (8th), 6.6 YPA (24th)
Dak since Week 6 (6 games): 18 TDs/2 INTs, 80.9 QBR (1st), 8.9 YPA (2nd)
I would argue that deserves a “wow,” don’t you?
Here is a screenshot of the ESPN.com game log and gee whiz:
Now, if you read #SturmStack every week, you know I have been logging the many changes to the offense. One, in particular, that jumps out is the “outside the tackle box” of Dak’s actions and getting his game on the move. The numbers for the season are certainly based on using it in moderation, but what if you got him moving 6-to-8 times a game instead of 2 or 3? Would that improve his game?
Well, again, it is barely approaching 15% of his throws, but look at the rating, the YPA, and the completion rates:
He is a “move player” and when you can employ all of his talents, it is a great thing
I figured since some of you are big nerds like me, you might want to see the 3 TD’s that Next Gen Stats suggested were “out of tackle box” TD passes from Dak this season.
So, because we can, here they are:
No. 1 vs the Rams to Lamb:
No. 2 vs the Eagles to Tolbert:
And then No. 3 was a bit borderline, but a beauty to Brandin Cooks:
.
As you can see, he barely leaves the tackle box, but that movement to the right influenced the safeties that the throw was going to the right, too. So when the throw goes all the way back across the field to the left, Cooks was left open. A thing of beauty, for sure. The general point – especially when looking at his recent results – is that the threat of Dak being on the move is helping this offense. He performs very well when he is going to his right or left and throws on the run with the possibility that he may run.
It isn’t the only reason this offense is better. Here are eight other reasons:
I’m not here to hang banners or declare victories. I am here to say that Mike McCarthy was a piñata because he and Aaron Rodgers had a public divorce and Rodgers was the one who had a stronger PR department. I get it, because I probably fell for it, too. He is the franchise QB and the other guy seems replaceable. But, this season in particular of Prescott and this offense might require a few of our national voices to offer some revised opinions after the groupthink got rolling that Mike was a dunce who knew nothing. It was laughable, but we are starting to see the begrudged acknowledgements to a certain extent.
It never happens fast, but I am telling you, this offense and this QB have found their way again and the belief that it might be a new approach to the offensive leadership will soon be conceded as a move that has worked well.
The offensive line has drastically improved and has started to look like a net positive again. With the exception of Terence Steele in Philadelphia, there has been very little to get overly concerned about. It also helps when Washington decides to trade all of their edge rushers away. Regardless, in this game, Dak was seldom touched.
Again, it is time to point out all of the green and the absence of red in the charts. The Cowboys “red zone problem” has them third in the NFL since Week 5, so it is now a clear strength. Third downs continue to be great under this QB and holy heck, the yards per attempt are now over 10.
Look at 11 personnel above, please, and let’s continue to focus on usage (60%) and yards per play (8.5!) to see that this thing is cooking and has been now for a while. I believe they have figured plenty out here on the fly and it is great to see.
One last item before we do some film and that is checking in on Tony Pollard who has seen an uptick in his activity. Here is his Next Gen chart from Thanksgiving:
First off, the green lines are what we want to see as those are all 5-plus yard runs. Those have been lacking too much in the first few months of the season, but also not the outside the tackles where he is most elusive. Yes, Pollard can run between the tackles, but between the blocking and his short space elusiveness, it has been odd to see them run him inside so much. Obviously, we can’t do either ALL the time, but we should be understanding how to fish where the fish are located.
The chart below is a showing of 2023 to date.
It shows that 53% are inside the tackles. It also shows that he has a higher success rate inside. Maybe the outside success requires your starting tackles in place and perhaps I should divide this up between the divide of Week 6, too. I haven’t done that yet.
Anyway, here is Thankgiving Day:
Eleven outside and two inside. I just thought it was interesting that he looked fully himself in this game with great speed to the edges and in the open field, but we should consider that perhaps this is another sign that Washington is pretty weak on the edges these days and see how he looks against Seattle before conclusions are drawn.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 10:23 - 2nd and 5 - DAL 38 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to C.Lamb
We can’t just talk about the good in this game without some acknowledgement that the pre-game script dialed up a sure touchdown in the first drive Dak just airmailed. If there is one thing we know about deep balls early in games, it is that sometimes these QBs are so juiced that they will overthrow their guy by 5-yards. The read here, especially when the slot goes down main street on middle field open coverages is that both safeties will crash on Cooks. When they do, Lamb just needs inside leverage against his guy and that isn’t a problem at all. This sure seemed like a 62-yard touchdown, but Dak managed to airmail Lamb in full sprint, which certainly suggests his arm strength is fine.
1Q - 10:16 - 3rd and 5 - DAL 38 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to J.Tolbert.
On the very next play, Washington wants to play with no safeties deep. Cover 4 right into Cover-zero is quite a posture change for a first series of the game, but on this one, Kendall Fuller will be pleased that they did not call defensive holding here. I don’t think the throw is bad, but Tolbert is held off his sprint by the water-skiing technique and it looks like another overthrow. It isn’t, but no call allows Washington to force a punt.
1Q - 5:45 - 1st and 15 - DAL 5 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to J.Ferguson to DAL 40 for 35 yards.
Second drive and a false start sets up first-and-15. Dallas has the aggression set to high here as they come out against Cover 6 (Quarter-quarter-half) and from their own end zone they are looking for Dak’s favorite throw – the seam to Jake Ferguson with a trailing linebacker trying to keep up and no middle safety. Those two make this look easy and there is little more deflating than a quick 35 yard gain out of the shadow of your own goal-posts. If Ferguson is a now a vertical threat – and it appears he is – this whole offense changes.
1Q - 0:53 - 2nd and 10 - WAS 15 - D.Prescott pass short right to R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Cowboys screen game has been featured at times in this new iteration of the offense and they love it in the high red zone. Look for the WR’s to all get to the left so that they can sneak Rico Dowdle to the right against fewer defenders. When this happens, the OL gets in space and Dowdle has room to drive an F-150 through the hole as the view below will show.
End Zone View
This is all about timing. And this rep is just beautiful. Once the line holds for a one-count, they get in space and if this is done well, the RB can high-step. 63-Biadasz and 70 Martin are looking for work and 73-Smith even gets in on the fun. Dowdle has very little to do himself if Ferguson can hold his guy off and he does. Fantastic stuff here.
2Q - 0:30 - 1st and Goal - WAS 7 - T.Pollard up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
I was laughing when I saw this one from Tyler Smith on the touchdown right before halftime. If you are wondering if he should be a tackle this season, it is a fair question. But, my response (keep in mind I have been wrong about him in the draft process) is that I think he can be a good tackle but a great guard. This is why. His power is better than his quickness and his power gets the double team here almost by a concession from the DT and then he swallows up the LB all the way into the end zone. Take nothing away from Pollard here, but this is why we are getting excited. These last two plays show that when the OL is up to task, the RB choice does not matter.
3Q - 2:15 - 3rd and 11 - DAL 16 - D.Prescott pass deep left to B.Cooks to DAL 41 for 25 yards
Now, I just want to show you how Dallas is thinking on 3rd downs right now. They just want to attack the field and get huge chunks. The alternative is to play to the sticks every 3rd down. Here, it is 3rd and long and this is a off-script adjustment to show you how Brandin Cooks and Dak are starting to get comfortable with each other. Dak moves to his left and Cooks “gets open” for a very large chunk. They are really aggressive these days.
4Q - 10:38 - 3rd and 1 - WAS 15 - D.Prescott pass short right to C.Lamb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Even this one. Its third-and-1. Should they run? Of course not. I would like to claim that I called this in real time the moment Lamb went in motion. The single high safety 31-Curl knows that everyone else is up to deal with the short-yardage run. So, Ferguson is going to run a route at him to draw his attention. Lamb will have the entire deep right vs 20-Martin and Dak knows this is a massive mismatch. Lamb has him at the snap and it looks easy right now.
4Q - 10:38 - TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Prescott pass to C.Lamb is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Please watch this in slow-motion to get a feel for how ridiculous it is. The Cowboys are running “mesh” at the goal-line and a post behind it with Lamb. This is not open and how Dak and Lamb pull this off is incredibly well done. Replay confirms it is a successful conversion and now they are just showing off. Watch the Washington defenders walking off in disgust.
4Q - 6:04 - 3rd and 6 - WAS 34 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to K.Turpin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
So, this will be the final touchdown Washington will allow with Jack Del Rio as their coordinator. He probably should have been fired a year ago, but I am not Washington and their decision making has never been terribly shrewd. But, God bless them for continuing to run middle field open no matter how many times Dallas attacks the middle field. Here, apparently the defensive idea is that Kam Curl is going to mug the A-Gap and then bail out and run with Kavontae Turpin who runs a sub 4.3 down the middle of the field. I really appreciate Dak not suffering fools here and putting this on tape. 36-Johnson is deep and has Cooks running to his left and Turpin to his right. Whichever way he turns, Dak is taking the touchdown to the other guy. This is ruthless offense and I am thrilled to see it.
10/10. No further notes. We do the defense tomorrow.
Is Mike McCarthy bringing out the best of yet another QB he coaches? It sure looks like it.
BOB STURM
NOV 27, 2023
It certainly continues to amaze and entertain to see Dak Prescott playing at the top of his game. I don’t mean to get carried away, but the numbers are difficult to argue with. As I have said in the past, this is what Mike McCarthy has done:
Here is what we are seeing about Dak Prescott since his offensive line returned and the Cowboys started making their defensive changes:
Dak before Week 6 (5 games): 5 TDs/4 INTs, 65.6 QBR (8th), 6.6 YPA (24th)
Dak since Week 6 (6 games): 18 TDs/2 INTs, 80.9 QBR (1st), 8.9 YPA (2nd)
I would argue that deserves a “wow,” don’t you?
Here is a screenshot of the ESPN.com game log and gee whiz:
Now, if you read #SturmStack every week, you know I have been logging the many changes to the offense. One, in particular, that jumps out is the “outside the tackle box” of Dak’s actions and getting his game on the move. The numbers for the season are certainly based on using it in moderation, but what if you got him moving 6-to-8 times a game instead of 2 or 3? Would that improve his game?
Well, again, it is barely approaching 15% of his throws, but look at the rating, the YPA, and the completion rates:
He is a “move player” and when you can employ all of his talents, it is a great thing
I figured since some of you are big nerds like me, you might want to see the 3 TD’s that Next Gen Stats suggested were “out of tackle box” TD passes from Dak this season.
So, because we can, here they are:
No. 1 vs the Rams to Lamb:
No. 2 vs the Eagles to Tolbert:
And then No. 3 was a bit borderline, but a beauty to Brandin Cooks:
.
As you can see, he barely leaves the tackle box, but that movement to the right influenced the safeties that the throw was going to the right, too. So when the throw goes all the way back across the field to the left, Cooks was left open. A thing of beauty, for sure. The general point – especially when looking at his recent results – is that the threat of Dak being on the move is helping this offense. He performs very well when he is going to his right or left and throws on the run with the possibility that he may run.
It isn’t the only reason this offense is better. Here are eight other reasons:
- More Shotgun, less under center.
- More out of pocket, less in pocket.
- More Dak using his legs to threaten defense.
- More downfield passing, air yards.
- Less Designed runs, more designed passes.
- More shifts/motions usage.
- More Play Action usage.
- More 11 personnel, less big personnel.
I’m not here to hang banners or declare victories. I am here to say that Mike McCarthy was a piñata because he and Aaron Rodgers had a public divorce and Rodgers was the one who had a stronger PR department. I get it, because I probably fell for it, too. He is the franchise QB and the other guy seems replaceable. But, this season in particular of Prescott and this offense might require a few of our national voices to offer some revised opinions after the groupthink got rolling that Mike was a dunce who knew nothing. It was laughable, but we are starting to see the begrudged acknowledgements to a certain extent.
It never happens fast, but I am telling you, this offense and this QB have found their way again and the belief that it might be a new approach to the offensive leadership will soon be conceded as a move that has worked well.
The offensive line has drastically improved and has started to look like a net positive again. With the exception of Terence Steele in Philadelphia, there has been very little to get overly concerned about. It also helps when Washington decides to trade all of their edge rushers away. Regardless, in this game, Dak was seldom touched.
Again, it is time to point out all of the green and the absence of red in the charts. The Cowboys “red zone problem” has them third in the NFL since Week 5, so it is now a clear strength. Third downs continue to be great under this QB and holy heck, the yards per attempt are now over 10.
Look at 11 personnel above, please, and let’s continue to focus on usage (60%) and yards per play (8.5!) to see that this thing is cooking and has been now for a while. I believe they have figured plenty out here on the fly and it is great to see.
One last item before we do some film and that is checking in on Tony Pollard who has seen an uptick in his activity. Here is his Next Gen chart from Thanksgiving:
First off, the green lines are what we want to see as those are all 5-plus yard runs. Those have been lacking too much in the first few months of the season, but also not the outside the tackles where he is most elusive. Yes, Pollard can run between the tackles, but between the blocking and his short space elusiveness, it has been odd to see them run him inside so much. Obviously, we can’t do either ALL the time, but we should be understanding how to fish where the fish are located.
The chart below is a showing of 2023 to date.
It shows that 53% are inside the tackles. It also shows that he has a higher success rate inside. Maybe the outside success requires your starting tackles in place and perhaps I should divide this up between the divide of Week 6, too. I haven’t done that yet.
Anyway, here is Thankgiving Day:
Eleven outside and two inside. I just thought it was interesting that he looked fully himself in this game with great speed to the edges and in the open field, but we should consider that perhaps this is another sign that Washington is pretty weak on the edges these days and see how he looks against Seattle before conclusions are drawn.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 10:23 - 2nd and 5 - DAL 38 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to C.Lamb
We can’t just talk about the good in this game without some acknowledgement that the pre-game script dialed up a sure touchdown in the first drive Dak just airmailed. If there is one thing we know about deep balls early in games, it is that sometimes these QBs are so juiced that they will overthrow their guy by 5-yards. The read here, especially when the slot goes down main street on middle field open coverages is that both safeties will crash on Cooks. When they do, Lamb just needs inside leverage against his guy and that isn’t a problem at all. This sure seemed like a 62-yard touchdown, but Dak managed to airmail Lamb in full sprint, which certainly suggests his arm strength is fine.
1Q - 10:16 - 3rd and 5 - DAL 38 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to J.Tolbert.
On the very next play, Washington wants to play with no safeties deep. Cover 4 right into Cover-zero is quite a posture change for a first series of the game, but on this one, Kendall Fuller will be pleased that they did not call defensive holding here. I don’t think the throw is bad, but Tolbert is held off his sprint by the water-skiing technique and it looks like another overthrow. It isn’t, but no call allows Washington to force a punt.
1Q - 5:45 - 1st and 15 - DAL 5 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to J.Ferguson to DAL 40 for 35 yards.
Second drive and a false start sets up first-and-15. Dallas has the aggression set to high here as they come out against Cover 6 (Quarter-quarter-half) and from their own end zone they are looking for Dak’s favorite throw – the seam to Jake Ferguson with a trailing linebacker trying to keep up and no middle safety. Those two make this look easy and there is little more deflating than a quick 35 yard gain out of the shadow of your own goal-posts. If Ferguson is a now a vertical threat – and it appears he is – this whole offense changes.
1Q - 0:53 - 2nd and 10 - WAS 15 - D.Prescott pass short right to R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Cowboys screen game has been featured at times in this new iteration of the offense and they love it in the high red zone. Look for the WR’s to all get to the left so that they can sneak Rico Dowdle to the right against fewer defenders. When this happens, the OL gets in space and Dowdle has room to drive an F-150 through the hole as the view below will show.
End Zone View
This is all about timing. And this rep is just beautiful. Once the line holds for a one-count, they get in space and if this is done well, the RB can high-step. 63-Biadasz and 70 Martin are looking for work and 73-Smith even gets in on the fun. Dowdle has very little to do himself if Ferguson can hold his guy off and he does. Fantastic stuff here.
2Q - 0:30 - 1st and Goal - WAS 7 - T.Pollard up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
I was laughing when I saw this one from Tyler Smith on the touchdown right before halftime. If you are wondering if he should be a tackle this season, it is a fair question. But, my response (keep in mind I have been wrong about him in the draft process) is that I think he can be a good tackle but a great guard. This is why. His power is better than his quickness and his power gets the double team here almost by a concession from the DT and then he swallows up the LB all the way into the end zone. Take nothing away from Pollard here, but this is why we are getting excited. These last two plays show that when the OL is up to task, the RB choice does not matter.
3Q - 2:15 - 3rd and 11 - DAL 16 - D.Prescott pass deep left to B.Cooks to DAL 41 for 25 yards
Now, I just want to show you how Dallas is thinking on 3rd downs right now. They just want to attack the field and get huge chunks. The alternative is to play to the sticks every 3rd down. Here, it is 3rd and long and this is a off-script adjustment to show you how Brandin Cooks and Dak are starting to get comfortable with each other. Dak moves to his left and Cooks “gets open” for a very large chunk. They are really aggressive these days.
4Q - 10:38 - 3rd and 1 - WAS 15 - D.Prescott pass short right to C.Lamb for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Even this one. Its third-and-1. Should they run? Of course not. I would like to claim that I called this in real time the moment Lamb went in motion. The single high safety 31-Curl knows that everyone else is up to deal with the short-yardage run. So, Ferguson is going to run a route at him to draw his attention. Lamb will have the entire deep right vs 20-Martin and Dak knows this is a massive mismatch. Lamb has him at the snap and it looks easy right now.
4Q - 10:38 - TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Prescott pass to C.Lamb is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Please watch this in slow-motion to get a feel for how ridiculous it is. The Cowboys are running “mesh” at the goal-line and a post behind it with Lamb. This is not open and how Dak and Lamb pull this off is incredibly well done. Replay confirms it is a successful conversion and now they are just showing off. Watch the Washington defenders walking off in disgust.
4Q - 6:04 - 3rd and 6 - WAS 34 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to K.Turpin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
So, this will be the final touchdown Washington will allow with Jack Del Rio as their coordinator. He probably should have been fired a year ago, but I am not Washington and their decision making has never been terribly shrewd. But, God bless them for continuing to run middle field open no matter how many times Dallas attacks the middle field. Here, apparently the defensive idea is that Kam Curl is going to mug the A-Gap and then bail out and run with Kavontae Turpin who runs a sub 4.3 down the middle of the field. I really appreciate Dak not suffering fools here and putting this on tape. 36-Johnson is deep and has Cooks running to his left and Turpin to his right. Whichever way he turns, Dak is taking the touchdown to the other guy. This is ruthless offense and I am thrilled to see it.
10/10. No further notes. We do the defense tomorrow.
