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Decoding McCarthy, Week 11- Blowouts Abounding
Where this 2023 Dallas Cowboys team is ranking as an all-time demolition force.
BOB STURM
NOV 21, 2023
Note: This week is short and if you write about the Cowboys, it is even shorter. So, please excuse some brevity – if I am capable of that – as we work through this Carolina game so that we may get everything in this week as planned for the Thanksgiving Week and stay married!
Yesterday, we spent a fair amount of time talking about the manner in which the Dallas Cowboys have been destroying their opponents. This is the sixth time they have won a game this season by 20-plus points and that is starting to put them in some historic territory.
Some might say this is a credit to the defense and therefore doesn’t belong in the Tuesday write-up, but I think you are seeing a team that has what you dream – a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense at the same time. Some teams have one above-average group, but many teams have nothing at all. The third group – what we often call contenders – have both. And as I look at the metrics for this team after 10 games, I see an offense on the edge of the Top five in almost everything and a defense that is squarely in the Top five.
It doesn’t mean they are the best team in the league or even in their own division. But, it does mean that I have been trying to show you all year that this team is a real contender.
Anyway, let’s go back to the strength to cover any double-digit point spread and to demolish teams right now. Dalton was in the comments in yesterday’s piece and left this:
According to my friends at Stathead, There have been six Cowboys teams in their history to have at least five 20-point wins. The 1993 team won Super Bowl 28, the 1978 team lost Super Bowl 13, and the other three teams - 1968, 1973, and 2021 – all suffered painful playoff defeats. And then there is 2023.
So, the baseline, as you can see, is a strong playoff team with Super Bowl potential. Only four Cowboys teams have done it six times and only 1968 exceeded that number of blowouts. That 1968 team murdered everyone but at 12-2 had to go to Cleveland in the playoffs and were dismissed.
Dalton wanted to know about the historical measures and this next search is amazing. Here are the all-time teams with 20+ wins in a season and it is a “who’s who” of great teams and near great teams:
And yes, only 10 teams in modern NFL history (since 1960) have more blowout wins than the 2023 Cowboys.
The teams on that list?
The 2007 the undefeated Patriots team until they lost in the Super Bowl. The 1999 Rams, the 1996 Packers, the 1991 Skins, the 1994 49ers, and the 2014 Patriots all won the Super Bowl. The 1998 Vikings was one of the best teams we have ever seen, too. I mean, this list is incredible, right?
Yes, Dallas is one blowout from joining this list. In other words, they are really, really impressive this year.
What does it mean? Well, I can already hear your comments: “the teams they blowout won’t be in the playoffs, so what does this matter?”
I agree, but look a that list of teams. They all had one thing in common – an incredibly high ceiling. Well, this football team does, too. We shall see where it leads.
As we quickly browse this offensive performance, I definitely sense a fair amount of mixed reviews from the offense. It was the lowest yardage output since the San Francisco debacle and 311 is not going to cut it most weeks. But, the 2nd half seemed largely about that one drive where they restored order, but then mostly had the vibe of “let’s get out of here as soon as we can since our opponent has conceded the game and is now just looking for more personal fouls.”
Here is the drive chart that usually tells stories:
I think we saw some good things from the running game and some decent coverage ideas from the Panthers. The Cowboys pass protection was excellent all day long, but they also made a point to not test it with long-developing routes too much.
I say this in the most respectful way possible, the Cowboys looked like they were playing with their food at times on Sunday. Not as sharp, but also, to be expected in the middle of this stretch. At the same time, continuity on the offensive line is really starting to appear like things are falling into place.
Here is the game-log for the OL and we use red to show reserves who are starting and green is to show the weeks where they had everyone.
Obviously, the week’s with everyone have not always been great performances, but the more green you see coincides with the offense starting to appear to be growing in the right directions and seeming to be a asset and not a liability. We don’t think that is a coincidence at all.
The personnel groupings will show that they remain a team that is accepting its 11 personnel fate. The chart above is showing ONLY RUSHING PLAYS and you can see, the heavier they get in personnel packages, the lower their numbers go. They are realizing that they run it much better with more space and more wide receivers stretching out opponents. It is accepting who you are as the weather turns.
NEXT GEN DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
The passing game did not perform a fireworks show, but film showed that they are running similar concepts that we have seen all season long and are starting to go back to what is working for them. I really enjoy seeing them begin to reveal patterns that reveal comfort levels in what this team is doing.
Let’s look at some film and then get ready for Thursday.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 4:35 - 3rd and 4 - CAR 40 - T.Pollard right end pushed ob at CAR 18 for 22 yards
One big key on Sunday was getting Tony Pollard going. We knew this would be an initiative and it was. The final numbers were 12 for 61 yards, but I like to subtract the crazy wildcat idea that lost 10 yards and call it 11 for 71 yards which is a nice 6.5 yards a carry instead of 5.1. We saw a number of different runs, but this one just shows how the continuity and ability of the offensive line is bearing fruit. Quick pitch to the outside and let Pollard and his athletic linemen get out there and look for trouble. Notice 78-Terence Steele taking out two men. Watch 63-Tyler Biadasz sprinting in full gallop looking for work. Pollard has space and look at that, he can still run the ball.
1Q - 3:25 - 2nd and 10 - CAR 18 - D.Prescott pass deep right to L.Schoonmaker for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Two plays later, one of Dak Prescott’s most reliable throws – to the tight end down the seam – for a touchdown. He has made this throw about five times this season and once the boys started catching them (drops were there in September) they have profited. Jake Ferguson caught this one in the Rams game and here is Schoonmaker with a nice target against single-high.
Almost everyone of these have been at the 20-yard line or right inside it. You can almost feel their eagerness to run this exact concept when they cross into the high red zone. Bread and butter stuff. Dak throws this ball consistently well after he looks off coverage and holds the safety.
2Q - 15:00 - 1st and 10 - DAL 30 - D.Prescott pass short left to B.Cooks ran ob at CAR 48 for 22 yards
I am a nerd and I love football. So, on the 1st play of the 2nd Quarter, I bet you were pointing at your TV like I was with that pointing Rick Dalton meme because the orbit motion and the deceptive 2nd level sneak-out route was just like the 1st play in the 4th Quarter against the Jets in Week 2, right?
It sure was! Put the eye-candy into the flat and then sneak your guy to the level behind and create an explosive play just from your presnap motion game. We are back, baby!
WEEK 2 - NYJ - 4Q - 15:00 - 1st and 15 - NYJ 30 - D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb to NYJ 9 for 21 yards
I have no idea why it is the first play of a new quarter unless the time between plays has them thinking of good ideas during our commercial breaks. I have more questions than answers, it appears.
2Q - 0:29 - 3rd and Goal - CAR 5 - D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Remember when Dallas was bad in the red zone? Well, they are 7th in the NFL since leaving San Francisco, so arrows continue to point up. Here we have 3rd and goal before halftime and the Panthers bring pressure. Dallas has Cooks and Lamb on the left and they will defeat man coverage with a slant/corner concept that puts Lamb to the back pylon. Dak has to back pedal to make this throw, but he also just has to put it in the vicinity and let Lamb go get it. This is easy as it gets on 3rd and goal in this league.
3Q - 0:11 - 3rd and 5 - DAL 40 - D.Prescott pass deep right to J.Ferguson pushed ob at CAR 36 for 24 yards
Here was the drive we talked about yesterday where they needed to restore order on this drive. A 3-and-out might have lost control of this game because the Panthers believed they had life at this exact moment. They have the Cowboys in 3rd down and medium and if they can just get off the field, this game might turn. The play is to motion Lamb over and again, the point of motion is often to just offer some subterfuge to the opponent. Hey, here comes Lamb. See him! He is the guy to watch, defense! And then the Cowboys run him shallow, hope he attracts the attention, and then sneak Ferguson behind him in to the deep corner and have an open explosive play if Dak puts the throw where it needs to be. That is beautiful offense with smart zone beaters that have not always been part of the package (Kellen Moore era).
4Q - 14:06 - 1st and 10 - CAR 21 - T.Pollard up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Last one, but it is good. An inside run for Pollard that gets into the secondary. The Panthers were called for defensive holding here as Panthers nose Shy Tuttle is holding Tyler Biadasz and not letting him get to the linebacker, 54 Grugier-Hill. That leaves Pollard to run through that attempt and, of course, noticing the FB 40-Hunter Luepke getting back in the mix with a nice lead block. This is a very nice run that should offer optimism that Pollard can still grind and get dirty when he smells the goal-line. I am sure hearing about Rico Dowdle has him digging as deep as he can.
Ok, on to the defense tomorrow. Short week!
Where this 2023 Dallas Cowboys team is ranking as an all-time demolition force.
BOB STURM
NOV 21, 2023
Note: This week is short and if you write about the Cowboys, it is even shorter. So, please excuse some brevity – if I am capable of that – as we work through this Carolina game so that we may get everything in this week as planned for the Thanksgiving Week and stay married!
Yesterday, we spent a fair amount of time talking about the manner in which the Dallas Cowboys have been destroying their opponents. This is the sixth time they have won a game this season by 20-plus points and that is starting to put them in some historic territory.
Some might say this is a credit to the defense and therefore doesn’t belong in the Tuesday write-up, but I think you are seeing a team that has what you dream – a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense at the same time. Some teams have one above-average group, but many teams have nothing at all. The third group – what we often call contenders – have both. And as I look at the metrics for this team after 10 games, I see an offense on the edge of the Top five in almost everything and a defense that is squarely in the Top five.
It doesn’t mean they are the best team in the league or even in their own division. But, it does mean that I have been trying to show you all year that this team is a real contender.
Anyway, let’s go back to the strength to cover any double-digit point spread and to demolish teams right now. Dalton was in the comments in yesterday’s piece and left this:
Dalton said 17, but I am going to move the slider up to 20+ points and I want to use that to measure the ability for this team to get blowouts. Hypothetically, early round knockouts should be a sign of a dominant team and the effects should allow a team to lower the workload on their top players and allow them to build depth by getting reserves in real games for real experience on the job. At least that is the theory.
According to my friends at Stathead, There have been six Cowboys teams in their history to have at least five 20-point wins. The 1993 team won Super Bowl 28, the 1978 team lost Super Bowl 13, and the other three teams - 1968, 1973, and 2021 – all suffered painful playoff defeats. And then there is 2023.
So, the baseline, as you can see, is a strong playoff team with Super Bowl potential. Only four Cowboys teams have done it six times and only 1968 exceeded that number of blowouts. That 1968 team murdered everyone but at 12-2 had to go to Cleveland in the playoffs and were dismissed.
Dalton wanted to know about the historical measures and this next search is amazing. Here are the all-time teams with 20+ wins in a season and it is a “who’s who” of great teams and near great teams:
And yes, only 10 teams in modern NFL history (since 1960) have more blowout wins than the 2023 Cowboys.
The teams on that list?
The 2007 the undefeated Patriots team until they lost in the Super Bowl. The 1999 Rams, the 1996 Packers, the 1991 Skins, the 1994 49ers, and the 2014 Patriots all won the Super Bowl. The 1998 Vikings was one of the best teams we have ever seen, too. I mean, this list is incredible, right?
Yes, Dallas is one blowout from joining this list. In other words, they are really, really impressive this year.
What does it mean? Well, I can already hear your comments: “the teams they blowout won’t be in the playoffs, so what does this matter?”
I agree, but look a that list of teams. They all had one thing in common – an incredibly high ceiling. Well, this football team does, too. We shall see where it leads.
As we quickly browse this offensive performance, I definitely sense a fair amount of mixed reviews from the offense. It was the lowest yardage output since the San Francisco debacle and 311 is not going to cut it most weeks. But, the 2nd half seemed largely about that one drive where they restored order, but then mostly had the vibe of “let’s get out of here as soon as we can since our opponent has conceded the game and is now just looking for more personal fouls.”
Here is the drive chart that usually tells stories:
I think we saw some good things from the running game and some decent coverage ideas from the Panthers. The Cowboys pass protection was excellent all day long, but they also made a point to not test it with long-developing routes too much.
I say this in the most respectful way possible, the Cowboys looked like they were playing with their food at times on Sunday. Not as sharp, but also, to be expected in the middle of this stretch. At the same time, continuity on the offensive line is really starting to appear like things are falling into place.
Here is the game-log for the OL and we use red to show reserves who are starting and green is to show the weeks where they had everyone.
Obviously, the week’s with everyone have not always been great performances, but the more green you see coincides with the offense starting to appear to be growing in the right directions and seeming to be a asset and not a liability. We don’t think that is a coincidence at all.
The personnel groupings will show that they remain a team that is accepting its 11 personnel fate. The chart above is showing ONLY RUSHING PLAYS and you can see, the heavier they get in personnel packages, the lower their numbers go. They are realizing that they run it much better with more space and more wide receivers stretching out opponents. It is accepting who you are as the weather turns.
NEXT GEN DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
The passing game did not perform a fireworks show, but film showed that they are running similar concepts that we have seen all season long and are starting to go back to what is working for them. I really enjoy seeing them begin to reveal patterns that reveal comfort levels in what this team is doing.
Let’s look at some film and then get ready for Thursday.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 4:35 - 3rd and 4 - CAR 40 - T.Pollard right end pushed ob at CAR 18 for 22 yards
One big key on Sunday was getting Tony Pollard going. We knew this would be an initiative and it was. The final numbers were 12 for 61 yards, but I like to subtract the crazy wildcat idea that lost 10 yards and call it 11 for 71 yards which is a nice 6.5 yards a carry instead of 5.1. We saw a number of different runs, but this one just shows how the continuity and ability of the offensive line is bearing fruit. Quick pitch to the outside and let Pollard and his athletic linemen get out there and look for trouble. Notice 78-Terence Steele taking out two men. Watch 63-Tyler Biadasz sprinting in full gallop looking for work. Pollard has space and look at that, he can still run the ball.
1Q - 3:25 - 2nd and 10 - CAR 18 - D.Prescott pass deep right to L.Schoonmaker for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Two plays later, one of Dak Prescott’s most reliable throws – to the tight end down the seam – for a touchdown. He has made this throw about five times this season and once the boys started catching them (drops were there in September) they have profited. Jake Ferguson caught this one in the Rams game and here is Schoonmaker with a nice target against single-high.
Almost everyone of these have been at the 20-yard line or right inside it. You can almost feel their eagerness to run this exact concept when they cross into the high red zone. Bread and butter stuff. Dak throws this ball consistently well after he looks off coverage and holds the safety.
2Q - 15:00 - 1st and 10 - DAL 30 - D.Prescott pass short left to B.Cooks ran ob at CAR 48 for 22 yards
I am a nerd and I love football. So, on the 1st play of the 2nd Quarter, I bet you were pointing at your TV like I was with that pointing Rick Dalton meme because the orbit motion and the deceptive 2nd level sneak-out route was just like the 1st play in the 4th Quarter against the Jets in Week 2, right?
It sure was! Put the eye-candy into the flat and then sneak your guy to the level behind and create an explosive play just from your presnap motion game. We are back, baby!
WEEK 2 - NYJ - 4Q - 15:00 - 1st and 15 - NYJ 30 - D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb to NYJ 9 for 21 yards
I have no idea why it is the first play of a new quarter unless the time between plays has them thinking of good ideas during our commercial breaks. I have more questions than answers, it appears.
2Q - 0:29 - 3rd and Goal - CAR 5 - D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Remember when Dallas was bad in the red zone? Well, they are 7th in the NFL since leaving San Francisco, so arrows continue to point up. Here we have 3rd and goal before halftime and the Panthers bring pressure. Dallas has Cooks and Lamb on the left and they will defeat man coverage with a slant/corner concept that puts Lamb to the back pylon. Dak has to back pedal to make this throw, but he also just has to put it in the vicinity and let Lamb go get it. This is easy as it gets on 3rd and goal in this league.
3Q - 0:11 - 3rd and 5 - DAL 40 - D.Prescott pass deep right to J.Ferguson pushed ob at CAR 36 for 24 yards
Here was the drive we talked about yesterday where they needed to restore order on this drive. A 3-and-out might have lost control of this game because the Panthers believed they had life at this exact moment. They have the Cowboys in 3rd down and medium and if they can just get off the field, this game might turn. The play is to motion Lamb over and again, the point of motion is often to just offer some subterfuge to the opponent. Hey, here comes Lamb. See him! He is the guy to watch, defense! And then the Cowboys run him shallow, hope he attracts the attention, and then sneak Ferguson behind him in to the deep corner and have an open explosive play if Dak puts the throw where it needs to be. That is beautiful offense with smart zone beaters that have not always been part of the package (Kellen Moore era).
4Q - 14:06 - 1st and 10 - CAR 21 - T.Pollard up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Last one, but it is good. An inside run for Pollard that gets into the secondary. The Panthers were called for defensive holding here as Panthers nose Shy Tuttle is holding Tyler Biadasz and not letting him get to the linebacker, 54 Grugier-Hill. That leaves Pollard to run through that attempt and, of course, noticing the FB 40-Hunter Luepke getting back in the mix with a nice lead block. This is a very nice run that should offer optimism that Pollard can still grind and get dirty when he smells the goal-line. I am sure hearing about Rico Dowdle has him digging as deep as he can.
Ok, on to the defense tomorrow. Short week!