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Decoding McCarthy - Total Offensive Failure
We found it pretty difficult to find a single component of the offense that is working.
Bob Sturm
Oct 15, 2024
Our Decoding objectives today:
When you lose that thoroughly, these Tuesday and Wednesday pieces are not as much fun, but then again, losing by 38 is not fun either.
What we need to ask ourselves is: What is going wrong, and can it be fixed? The Cowboys sit right now at the intersection of wondering if all is lost, crossing paths with “but we are only one game out in our own division.”
While yesterday in my piece, optimism was low, perhaps today we should figure out where and what needs to be addressed with the bye week and with many more battles left to fight. They are not making drastic leadership changes, so it remains up to Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer to get this offense to a spot where it can score touchdowns on a regular basis. The last thing you want to find out when you get to your bye week is that the Carolina Panthers have scored more offensive touchdowns (11) than the Cowboys (10) in the same number of games. When a team like Tampa Bay is sitting on 20, we can see this offense is just not going to cut it.
As if you need a reminder, the data against the Lions was probably about as bad as we have seen this season:
Nine points was a season-low, as was just 251 yards. On the other hand, five giveaways is a season-high and after the first four games only had three giveaways, the last two weeks have had the Cowboys coughing up the football eight times! Eleven giveaways is losing football at its highest point. They are 31st in the league in offensive turnovers and since the defense is not getting the ball - just two takeaways in the last four games – the turnover differential shows only two teams in the league below them.
If you know how important that stat is — almost no stat is more important than turnover differential in both games and seasons — then you know being tied for last in the NFC with Philadelphia and Seattle at -6 is a great recipe for missing the postseason unless it gets fixed immediately.
Now, the good news is that these turnovers did not decide this game — at least most of them did not. The game was 37-9 before the second turnover occurred, and the last four were not changing the outcome. But that first one hurt really bad. We will get back to it.
But this game is a true demonstration of where you are and what you are as an offense. And what you are appears to be a team that is not good at much.
You are 32nd at running the football. Dead last. This week, the Lions beat your QB up with a 43% pressure rate. Dak had a bad game for sure, but how much of that is because he was hit continuously? It appears many of us overrated how good this OL could be, because right now they are not very good at all. For the season, Pro Football Focus has the team ranked 28th in the league in pass protection. That actually sounds about right.
And you might be able to manage with a bad running game and poor pass protection if you had more than one difference-maker at the skill positions. But, as you also know, CeeDee Lamb is attracting all sorts of coverage, and nobody else is scaring the league right now.
This leads to an offense that is playing 11 personnel for 55 of 65 snaps (85%), but that grouping is at 3.8 yards per play. Elite offenses are near 7.0 yards per play in 11 personnel, and the league averages 5.5, so if you are under 4, you have no chance.
And that is the sum total of the overview. You can’t run or protect, you turned the ball over as much as almost anyone in the sport, and you also cannot produce more than 3.8 a snap in your best grouping.
And that is how you get to zero touchdowns in a massive measuring stick affair where the truth is that you don’t measure up much at all right now.
Dak Prescott’s poor performance
This, to me, is the play of the game. I realize I am really stretching to say that one play affected a 47-9 outcome, but I believe the avalanche was set in motion by having two good drives that resulted in just 3 points to start.
Zack Martin’s holding penalty ended the first drive (more on him in a moment), but this second drive is full of promise, and you retake the lead if you hit this pass. I believe the entire game is different (although I might be a homer for thinking that).
1Q - 4:39 - 3-5-DET 7 - D.Prescott pass short left intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by B.Branch at DET -8.
This is a great red-zone concept to beat Cover 1, and the Cowboys should have had a touchdown on this play. It is trips in a bunch with the outside man (83-Brooks) looking to run a hook where he impedes the cover corner on Lamb. Then, Tolbert runs a little bubble to the flat. The Cowboys expect the Lions' single-high safety (31) to help with Lamb, but a proper corner route will out-leverage that, and we see this combination in the league every Sunday. The inside man running to the back pylon beats man coverage nearly every time. If it is covered, you hit the flat, and he probably scores.
Now, Brian Branch is an awesome player, and he makes a great play as he did his film study and knows this concept. Like I said, it is a very common combo, so when you spot Lamb there, you can guess that all Lions are alerted to Lamb. He is going to bait Dak into thinking he isn’t helping, but then will help. Smart idea. But Dak makes two major mistakes here, and I’m sure he will admit to both. One, the throw is bad. If you make the throw to the back pylon, there is one player who can catch it, and it isn’t Branch. Only a lofted throw to the mid-end zone is in Branch’s range. Branch is standing at the 2-yard line when Dak releases it, and he probably thinks it’s a lay-up. But it’s not.
Then, if you don’t want to make that throw, you stay on Lamb with your eyes, but then zip one out to Tolbert if you suspect Branch is baiting you. Then, I have Jalen Tolbert with the ball, and he only needs to take a few steps to get a first down and one more to get into the end zone.
This is 100% on the QB to diagnose this better. Either throw it to Lamb in a spot only he can get to, or go to Tolbert and trust him to make a play. There is no pressure on this throw, and you simply have to hit it. Nice job by Branch, but you had to comply with his wishes, and you did.
The following montage shows most of Prescott’s first-half throws to demonstrate several that were off-target, as well as some very nice plays where he is getting destroyed due to poor protection, and then the tight windows he is being asked to throw into. There is a moment at 0:48 where Jake Ferguson has a big play that he simply does not make, but there are many others where the throws aren’t good enough.
Which each passing game, Prescott is trying to do more and the results are diminishing. It isn’t one thing. It is everything. The pressure is high, the solutions are rare, and he is pressing to justify the new contract. It all looks bad right now and he doesn’t trust his protection – mostly because they are not trustworthy.
But, there are opportunities that he is missing and many seem to be sailed throws that are going right to safeties like this one.
4Q - 13:34 - 4-6-DAL 32 - D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for J.Brooks INTERCEPTED by B.Branch at DET 49.
Its fourth down, the Lions are blitzing and playing man behind it. It is protected, but he has to slide in the pocket and reset. The feet aren’t right and the ball sails. This is 4th Quarter of a blow-out, so the beatdown physically has probably taken a toll, but this is not the Prescott that we like. This is one where he seems frustrated and beaten.
The coverage stats are definitely interesting as the Lions play a ton of man coverage and against Dak, they were able to really cause problems there.
Against zones, the Cowboys were able to show reasonable results, but against man, we are back to asking do they have the weapons to beat man coverage often enough?
But, when they do, he has to throw the ball better.
Zack Martin struggles
The one guy we have never worried about is Zack Martin. He is going to the Hall of Fame and has been one of the best Dallas Cowboys we have ever seen. He was a phenomenal player for years, but we are starting to see some decline.
Now, before you look at this cut-up from Kevin Utz, I do want to say that he got banged up against Pittsburgh. I don’t know how severe it was, but I do know this — I have never seen him struggle like this. This does not look like Zack Martin.
Sometimes a guy tries to play hurt and actually makes things worse. I am not saying that happened here, but this guy is so much better than this and he has earned the benefit of the doubt.
I think we could easily argue he was the 5th best offensive lineman on Sunday and I am positive that has never been said about this great Cowboy.
First Down Run Game Woes
This team wants to help its protection and its QB by running the ball. The issue is they cannot do it. They cannot even get a team to bring down a safety to stop the run, so Detroit sits in 2-high all day and dares you to prove your guys can win up front against their guys.
This reel will show you how bad it is, and it will also show you that the back doesn’t seem to really matter too much.
These runs are all 1st and 10 runs and they are all in the 1st-3rd Quarters. They tried nine of them with eight being designed runs and one was Dak taking off. Off those nine runs, they ran for a total of 13 yards. Rico Dowdle had one 5-yard run, but everything else was pure failure.
Again, this is the offense they designed and believed in to help them be the best side of the ball this year. And now we are telling you they seem unable to do anything but ask Dak to throw perfectly as he gets hit to try to win games against teams that own the line of scrimmage.
Which brings us to our final stop on this horrible trip from Sunday – although it gets worse tomorrow with the defense – and that is the many sacks.
Analyzing the Sacks Allowed
Four sacks was the new-season high for the offensive line as this game was a total disaster on all fronts. Let’s go through them.
2Q - 11:08 - 3-10-DAL 30 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 20 for -10 yards (A.McNeill).
Third-and-long against a 6-man blitz. Cover 1 behind it and it looks for a second like Turpin might be an option quickly, but to be fair, there is nowhere to go with the ball. Meanwhile, they are attacking your protection on the A-Gap to the right as a twist comes through Martin and 40-Luepke and big Alim McNeil gets home and crushes Prescott. He is 315 pounds of freight train and that won’t be his only moment.
2Q - 0:28 - 1-10-DET 30 - D.Prescott sacked at DET 38 for -8 yards (A.McNeill).
This one is easy. Cover 4 for the Lions and nothing fancy up front. But McNeil decides to just bull-rush Martin right back into Prescott. Dak has no chance and aside from Aaron Donald, I have never seen that done to Martin, so I suspect he is hurt.
3Q - 11:57 - 2-5-DAL 34 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 28 for -6 yards (A.Hutchinson).
This is the play where Aidan Hutchinson breaks his leg, so perhaps don’t slow this one down. But, I will tell you that it is easy to analyze when Terence Steele loses this quickly. To be fair, TJ Bass is also losing, but not as fast. Hutchinson destroys Steele and it is quick and decisive. That injury is massive for Detroit to overcome.
3Q - 9:41 - 2-10-DET 30 - D.Prescott sacked at DET 32 for -2 yards (T.Nowaske).
This feels like Dak is now feeling a rush even if it isn’t there. The body-blow theory is real and by the time you have been hit this much, you start to hear footsteps. I would love to see how many guys have a 43% pressure rate and still have a strong QB performance in this league. It can’t be many. Anyway, he seems to run into this sack as being down 28 has him on the run. The protection is actually decent, but the options down the field are causing him to wait until it is too late.
Well, that is enough of that. We prepare now for the defense tomorrow and then a welcome bye weekend from this very poor situation right now.
We found it pretty difficult to find a single component of the offense that is working.
Bob Sturm
Oct 15, 2024
Our Decoding objectives today:
- The Offensive Overview from the debacle vs Detroit
- Dak Prescott’s poor performance.
- Zack Martin and entire OL struggles
- First Down Run Game Woes
- Analyzing the Sacks Allowed
When you lose that thoroughly, these Tuesday and Wednesday pieces are not as much fun, but then again, losing by 38 is not fun either.
What we need to ask ourselves is: What is going wrong, and can it be fixed? The Cowboys sit right now at the intersection of wondering if all is lost, crossing paths with “but we are only one game out in our own division.”
While yesterday in my piece, optimism was low, perhaps today we should figure out where and what needs to be addressed with the bye week and with many more battles left to fight. They are not making drastic leadership changes, so it remains up to Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer to get this offense to a spot where it can score touchdowns on a regular basis. The last thing you want to find out when you get to your bye week is that the Carolina Panthers have scored more offensive touchdowns (11) than the Cowboys (10) in the same number of games. When a team like Tampa Bay is sitting on 20, we can see this offense is just not going to cut it.
As if you need a reminder, the data against the Lions was probably about as bad as we have seen this season:
Nine points was a season-low, as was just 251 yards. On the other hand, five giveaways is a season-high and after the first four games only had three giveaways, the last two weeks have had the Cowboys coughing up the football eight times! Eleven giveaways is losing football at its highest point. They are 31st in the league in offensive turnovers and since the defense is not getting the ball - just two takeaways in the last four games – the turnover differential shows only two teams in the league below them.
If you know how important that stat is — almost no stat is more important than turnover differential in both games and seasons — then you know being tied for last in the NFC with Philadelphia and Seattle at -6 is a great recipe for missing the postseason unless it gets fixed immediately.
Now, the good news is that these turnovers did not decide this game — at least most of them did not. The game was 37-9 before the second turnover occurred, and the last four were not changing the outcome. But that first one hurt really bad. We will get back to it.
But this game is a true demonstration of where you are and what you are as an offense. And what you are appears to be a team that is not good at much.
You are 32nd at running the football. Dead last. This week, the Lions beat your QB up with a 43% pressure rate. Dak had a bad game for sure, but how much of that is because he was hit continuously? It appears many of us overrated how good this OL could be, because right now they are not very good at all. For the season, Pro Football Focus has the team ranked 28th in the league in pass protection. That actually sounds about right.
And you might be able to manage with a bad running game and poor pass protection if you had more than one difference-maker at the skill positions. But, as you also know, CeeDee Lamb is attracting all sorts of coverage, and nobody else is scaring the league right now.
This leads to an offense that is playing 11 personnel for 55 of 65 snaps (85%), but that grouping is at 3.8 yards per play. Elite offenses are near 7.0 yards per play in 11 personnel, and the league averages 5.5, so if you are under 4, you have no chance.
And that is the sum total of the overview. You can’t run or protect, you turned the ball over as much as almost anyone in the sport, and you also cannot produce more than 3.8 a snap in your best grouping.
And that is how you get to zero touchdowns in a massive measuring stick affair where the truth is that you don’t measure up much at all right now.
Dak Prescott’s poor performance
This, to me, is the play of the game. I realize I am really stretching to say that one play affected a 47-9 outcome, but I believe the avalanche was set in motion by having two good drives that resulted in just 3 points to start.
Zack Martin’s holding penalty ended the first drive (more on him in a moment), but this second drive is full of promise, and you retake the lead if you hit this pass. I believe the entire game is different (although I might be a homer for thinking that).
1Q - 4:39 - 3-5-DET 7 - D.Prescott pass short left intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by B.Branch at DET -8.
This is a great red-zone concept to beat Cover 1, and the Cowboys should have had a touchdown on this play. It is trips in a bunch with the outside man (83-Brooks) looking to run a hook where he impedes the cover corner on Lamb. Then, Tolbert runs a little bubble to the flat. The Cowboys expect the Lions' single-high safety (31) to help with Lamb, but a proper corner route will out-leverage that, and we see this combination in the league every Sunday. The inside man running to the back pylon beats man coverage nearly every time. If it is covered, you hit the flat, and he probably scores.
Now, Brian Branch is an awesome player, and he makes a great play as he did his film study and knows this concept. Like I said, it is a very common combo, so when you spot Lamb there, you can guess that all Lions are alerted to Lamb. He is going to bait Dak into thinking he isn’t helping, but then will help. Smart idea. But Dak makes two major mistakes here, and I’m sure he will admit to both. One, the throw is bad. If you make the throw to the back pylon, there is one player who can catch it, and it isn’t Branch. Only a lofted throw to the mid-end zone is in Branch’s range. Branch is standing at the 2-yard line when Dak releases it, and he probably thinks it’s a lay-up. But it’s not.
Then, if you don’t want to make that throw, you stay on Lamb with your eyes, but then zip one out to Tolbert if you suspect Branch is baiting you. Then, I have Jalen Tolbert with the ball, and he only needs to take a few steps to get a first down and one more to get into the end zone.
This is 100% on the QB to diagnose this better. Either throw it to Lamb in a spot only he can get to, or go to Tolbert and trust him to make a play. There is no pressure on this throw, and you simply have to hit it. Nice job by Branch, but you had to comply with his wishes, and you did.
The following montage shows most of Prescott’s first-half throws to demonstrate several that were off-target, as well as some very nice plays where he is getting destroyed due to poor protection, and then the tight windows he is being asked to throw into. There is a moment at 0:48 where Jake Ferguson has a big play that he simply does not make, but there are many others where the throws aren’t good enough.
Which each passing game, Prescott is trying to do more and the results are diminishing. It isn’t one thing. It is everything. The pressure is high, the solutions are rare, and he is pressing to justify the new contract. It all looks bad right now and he doesn’t trust his protection – mostly because they are not trustworthy.
But, there are opportunities that he is missing and many seem to be sailed throws that are going right to safeties like this one.
4Q - 13:34 - 4-6-DAL 32 - D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for J.Brooks INTERCEPTED by B.Branch at DET 49.
Its fourth down, the Lions are blitzing and playing man behind it. It is protected, but he has to slide in the pocket and reset. The feet aren’t right and the ball sails. This is 4th Quarter of a blow-out, so the beatdown physically has probably taken a toll, but this is not the Prescott that we like. This is one where he seems frustrated and beaten.
The coverage stats are definitely interesting as the Lions play a ton of man coverage and against Dak, they were able to really cause problems there.
Against zones, the Cowboys were able to show reasonable results, but against man, we are back to asking do they have the weapons to beat man coverage often enough?
But, when they do, he has to throw the ball better.
Zack Martin struggles
The one guy we have never worried about is Zack Martin. He is going to the Hall of Fame and has been one of the best Dallas Cowboys we have ever seen. He was a phenomenal player for years, but we are starting to see some decline.
Now, before you look at this cut-up from Kevin Utz, I do want to say that he got banged up against Pittsburgh. I don’t know how severe it was, but I do know this — I have never seen him struggle like this. This does not look like Zack Martin.
Sometimes a guy tries to play hurt and actually makes things worse. I am not saying that happened here, but this guy is so much better than this and he has earned the benefit of the doubt.
I think we could easily argue he was the 5th best offensive lineman on Sunday and I am positive that has never been said about this great Cowboy.
First Down Run Game Woes
This team wants to help its protection and its QB by running the ball. The issue is they cannot do it. They cannot even get a team to bring down a safety to stop the run, so Detroit sits in 2-high all day and dares you to prove your guys can win up front against their guys.
This reel will show you how bad it is, and it will also show you that the back doesn’t seem to really matter too much.
These runs are all 1st and 10 runs and they are all in the 1st-3rd Quarters. They tried nine of them with eight being designed runs and one was Dak taking off. Off those nine runs, they ran for a total of 13 yards. Rico Dowdle had one 5-yard run, but everything else was pure failure.
Again, this is the offense they designed and believed in to help them be the best side of the ball this year. And now we are telling you they seem unable to do anything but ask Dak to throw perfectly as he gets hit to try to win games against teams that own the line of scrimmage.
Which brings us to our final stop on this horrible trip from Sunday – although it gets worse tomorrow with the defense – and that is the many sacks.
Analyzing the Sacks Allowed
Four sacks was the new-season high for the offensive line as this game was a total disaster on all fronts. Let’s go through them.
2Q - 11:08 - 3-10-DAL 30 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 20 for -10 yards (A.McNeill).
Third-and-long against a 6-man blitz. Cover 1 behind it and it looks for a second like Turpin might be an option quickly, but to be fair, there is nowhere to go with the ball. Meanwhile, they are attacking your protection on the A-Gap to the right as a twist comes through Martin and 40-Luepke and big Alim McNeil gets home and crushes Prescott. He is 315 pounds of freight train and that won’t be his only moment.
2Q - 0:28 - 1-10-DET 30 - D.Prescott sacked at DET 38 for -8 yards (A.McNeill).
This one is easy. Cover 4 for the Lions and nothing fancy up front. But McNeil decides to just bull-rush Martin right back into Prescott. Dak has no chance and aside from Aaron Donald, I have never seen that done to Martin, so I suspect he is hurt.
3Q - 11:57 - 2-5-DAL 34 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 28 for -6 yards (A.Hutchinson).
This is the play where Aidan Hutchinson breaks his leg, so perhaps don’t slow this one down. But, I will tell you that it is easy to analyze when Terence Steele loses this quickly. To be fair, TJ Bass is also losing, but not as fast. Hutchinson destroys Steele and it is quick and decisive. That injury is massive for Detroit to overcome.
3Q - 9:41 - 2-10-DET 30 - D.Prescott sacked at DET 32 for -2 yards (T.Nowaske).
This feels like Dak is now feeling a rush even if it isn’t there. The body-blow theory is real and by the time you have been hit this much, you start to hear footsteps. I would love to see how many guys have a 43% pressure rate and still have a strong QB performance in this league. It can’t be many. Anyway, he seems to run into this sack as being down 28 has him on the run. The protection is actually decent, but the options down the field are causing him to wait until it is too late.
Well, that is enough of that. We prepare now for the defense tomorrow and then a welcome bye weekend from this very poor situation right now.
