Sturm: Decoding McCarthy - Solid Start To 2024

dpf1123

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
2,343
Decoding McCarthy - Solid Start To 2024
The Offense certainly did not come close to a perfect game, but against that defense in that setting – you will take it every time.

Bob Sturm
Sep 10, 2024




Here we go. Our objectives today:
  • Evaluate the offense in general and then closer looks at:
  • The return of Ezekiel Elliott.
  • The rookie OL playing in a very tough spot.
  • The QB a few hours after he signs the biggest deal ever.
  • Look at some All-22 film and see what we can see.
OVERALL OFFENSIVE EVALUATION



We start with the drive chart from the Game Book, which gives us a fine overview of the 14 drives from Sunday. We see six scoring drives—but three with very short fields—and then two drives at the end of each half that we should barely count (although the one before halftime almost turned into a ridiculous 66- or 71-yard field goal that we really wanted to see).

What we saw in the first half was excellent for stretches, with Dak Prescott throwing the ball well and the offense looking like it was well-designed, with plenty of ideas against a very good Cleveland defense. The Film Study will feature the 5th drive, and let me tell you, I thought it was incredible in design and execution.

I also loved the early mind-melding of Dak and CeeDee Lamb. With each passing year, they remind me—and I assume Mike McCarthy—of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. They literally know what each other is going to do, and that is the dream for any offense: having your QB1 and one of the best receivers in the league working together on that level. Tony Romo only had that with Jason Witten, and you wonder how limitless it might be with someone as dynamic as Lamb.

To be fair, the offense had two very nice drives all day long, and you never want to say 2-14 is acceptable because, of course, it is not. But there are games where you have to make decisions on the fly based on how the game is going, and as I said yesterday, the objective by halftime switched to not risking anything dumb with rookie linemen and just getting out of Dodge with a three-score lead. I will always support a head coach who decides to eliminate any risk of a huge halftime lead being given back due to hubris or stupidity. So, above all else, play to win the game.

But that certainly doesn’t mean we want bad offense for the entire 2nd half. We would prefer a lovely ground-and-pound with dominance being exerted and trying to make your opponent quit. We have seen that plenty in the rookie year of Zeke when teams were driven into the turf by a relentless and merciless running game. But just nine running plays in the 2nd half for 26 yards was definitely not that. So, we don’t want to act like it was the main story, but we could have used a little more of a knockout posture from the offense in the 2nd half, and I also don’t want to fully ignore it.

So overall, we don’t love these numbers below, but we also realize that if we have to choose between a great offensive day or an easy win in Cleveland, that choice is not difficult.

It was a clean game. The Cowboys put up 26 points offensively, and got the job done. Now, in the future, you usually won’t get away with 28% on 3rd downs and just 265 yards and 15 first downs. None of those numbers were very good and we shouldn’t delude ourselves into thinking they are. At the same time, when you are up 27-3, I would probably do the exact same thing.

Let’s move on.
The return of Ezekiel Elliott.

Well, apparently, this isn’t a prank. Ezekiel Elliott got the most snaps (32) and the most touches (12) of any RB on the roster in Week 1, and if the game had been close, we assume it would have been by even more of a margin.

How did it look? Well, our film guy, Kevin Utz, put together a supercut of Zeke’s carries from Sunday, so let’s give it a look and chat.

Certainly did not expect to see a pulling Zack Martin and then a leaping Zeke in space on the first touch of the year, but that looked like fresh legs. The work out of the shotgun was strong, with a reasonable burst.

The interior runs were not very well won up front, but that red-zone run and punch-in for the touchdown were fantastic. If they merely get better in the red zone with the old-fashioned zone read with Dak, it might be a worthy idea.

I think the question will remain whether this can be maintained through the grind of a season, and I am still pretty skeptical. However, I cannot lie, this cut-up is not depressing with a guy looking like he is trying to pull a trailer behind him. He has a decent look in his legs for now, and he blocks and protects well, then can slip out for a screen or a play in the flats.

I am shocked to admit, I didn’t hate his performance at all on Sunday. I am willing to proceed for now, but there will be a short leash as we have to see some juice as the grind commences.

The rookie OL playing in a very tough spot.

Specifically, I want to look at Tyler Guyton vs. Myles Garrett. Cooper Beebe had a very solid game, and while we would have liked to see more bulldozing in the interior run game, we are going to set him aside and say he was not the main story.

The main story is this: Could you take a right tackle from Oklahoma who was labeled a project and put him at left tackle in the NFL up against the scariest edge in the league? Could Guyton deal with Garrett enough for you to at least run a few successful plays without him making this look like Chaz Green?

Basically, this comes down to Mike McCarthy designing a game plan to minimize Garrett’s ability to wreck your game, and I have to say, this is why McCarthy is thought of as one of the smarter offensive coaches in the business.

Let’s look at a number of their face-offs in a super-cut of Guyton’s day:

This is a great test of everyone’s perspective. Because I think Dallas would say they were very pleased with his performance, as he did the best he could against a beast, kept his composure, and kept fighting. There are plenty of things to work with here.

I would say if you are Cleveland, you would say that Myles kicked his tail all day on those edge rushes and only didn’t wreck the game because they were throwing help at him and rolling Dak away from him until the game got out of reach and then they stopped taking any chances at all. Again, Mike McCarthy is not a dumb man.

And I would say if you are New Orleans or Baltimore, you are figuring out how to try to attack this guy until he proves he can settle in. We told you it was going to be a rough go as a rookie, and it was. Yet, he survived it and will be better because of it, and he even had some reps where he did just fine.

Now, PFF graded 71 tackles in Week 1, and Guyton was graded as the 67th-best. Yet, I leave this performance feeling pretty good about what I saw. I think he did just fine for that challenge that can make any tackle in this league look bad. Garrett is the real deal. Maybe Guyton will be someday, too.

How Did Dak Prescott Play The Day Of His Deal?

You know what I thought would happen. I thought Dak would sign his deal and then play very poorly because I know how Cowboys football works in this era. It was all set up for him to struggle because this matchup in Cleveland has been a recipe for Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, and others to look like absolute garbage against that defense. They were going to go after him and try to ruin his day.

And, again, we are definitely grading this on a curve because of the opponent and game situation, but I had very few issues with his day. He was just fine and played reasonably mistake-free football along with a few big-time moments before reeling everything in once the game was in hand. These modest numbers could have been helped with some better connections in the 2nd half, but again, 27-3 and such.

They will need more from Prescott in the weeks to come, but that was a huge pressure spot for him where he knew the world was just waiting for a disastrous performance and he did not give it to them. So, modest numbers, but two moments to remember and let’s break them down here:

1Q - 8:21 - 2-10-DAL 40 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb pushed ob at CLV 26 for 34 yards

This some great stuff. 21-Denzel Ward is a very big time corner and the Cowboys can either avoid him or attack him. But, if you pay Dak and CeeDee what you pay them, then we better not be avoiding that challenge. We better be looking for a chance to knock Denzel down a peg or two. So, the moment you see single-high and Ward pressed up against Lamb, let’s let CeeDee offer his great release and a little stutter-and-go and then see if Dak can drop it right in the bucket. Perfect route, perfect throw. Big gainer.

1Q - 6:59 - 3-5-CLV 21 - D.Prescott pass deep left to B.Cooks for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Three snaps later… Cowboys in empty against a Cover 0 blitz. The Browns are bringing six, and they actually have a protection bust as Tyler Smith blocks down with Beebe, and they both take the same guy. Meanwhile, Guyton goes left, and the B Gap opens for Jordan Hicks to have a free run. That isn’t right, but Dak backpedals and knows if he can get the ball off, Juan Thornhill has no chance to deal with Brandin Cooks. All Dak has to do is lob it into the path and let Cooks run under it.
This is veteran QB composure and play and a wonderful answer to Jim Schwartz predictably trying to blitz the house on 3rd down. Dak has been so good in these spots over the last few years as he punishes blitz ideas consistently well (despite what your group texts might say, lol).

Beautiful touchdown.

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS


As you can see, 4.31 yards per play in 11 personnel is well below where you want to be, and that success rate was also poor at 31%. That will need to improve, but you won’t be at Cleveland every week. I still think Jalen Tolbert will be a big factor this year.

Otherwise, you can see they called 24% of their snaps with multiple TEs (if we consider Hunter Luepke another TE, and I sort of do). Now, we wait to see if Jake Ferguson will miss time, but clearly, we are thankful that he avoided the dreaded ACL, which would have been a tough pill to swallow. Bullet dodged.

Then this below is just the running game based on alignment. Very curious how well they can run under center this year, but that number is boosted with all of the jet sweeps. They did not run the ball inside very effectively, which we assumed would be a work in progress.

Let’s end this with a film study look at the 5th drive. I was very excited about this because I found it to be well scripted and conceived. This was a fun one and caused this tweet at 4:29 pm on Sunday:

So, let’s look at it.

THE PERFECT DRIVE

2Q - 11:11 - 1-10-DAL 22 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to C.Lamb

Shotgun 11 personnel with a play-action rollout (Away from Guyton) to your QB who is looking at an overload to the right. Dak has Tolbert on the sideline for a nice gain but elects to look for Lamb who flashes open coming across the deep middle. It is a tough throw on the run and it does not hook up. Maybe if Dak can get more on it to the sideline, but it is a very high degree of difficulty. He probably will look for Tolbert next time for an easy 20 yards. Second Down.

2Q - 11:02 - 2-10-DAL 22 - E.Elliott left end pushed ob at DAL 31 for 9 yards

Shotgun 11 and a beautiful little swing pass that is considered a run. Again, we don’t think of Zeke as a great option out wide, but this looked convincing to me. Nice 9 yard gain with Tolbert blocking out front.

2Q - 10:39 - 3-1-DAL 31 - D.Prescott up the middle to DAL 34 for 3 yards

3rd and 1. Yes. QB sneak. Do this more. It is the Tom Brady play. Dak has to be smart and avoid too much pain, but this is the easiest way to pick up one yard if one of the A-Gaps is unattended - and it definitely was between Beebe and Martin. Move the chains.

2Q - 10:03 - 1-10-DAL 34 - C.Lamb right end ran ob at DAL 46 for 12 yards

21 personnel and a jet sweep to Lamb. Have the entire formation going left with a Zeke run and Lamb going the other way with speed. Is this a run-run option for the QB? It seems like it is probably locked into the jet sweep and they could kill-kill back to the run to Zeke (if that makes sense). But, I really love it as a great way to run under center without actually running between the tackles all the time. Another 1st down.

2Q - 9:33 - 1-10-DAL 46 - E.Elliott left guard to DAL 49 for 3 yards

Pretty basic shotgun run into a rather stacked box. Like to see Martin and Steele looking strong in this game in the running game. 3 yards.

2Q - 9:01 - 2-7-DAL 49 - D.Prescott pass short right to H.Luepke to CLV 45 for 6 yards

2nd and 7 here, 22 personnel and this is a good look for play-action. Huge loaded box and Dak has to quickly get the ball to his full-back because Myles Garrett is hot on his tail and about to get the ball. Good throw and Hunter can catch and run really well. If you go 22 personnel, they are going to stack that box, so plays to the flat are always going to be there if you get it out quick.

2Q - 8:25 - 3-1-CLV 45 - R.Dowdle right tackle to CLV 39 for 6 yards

Now, 3rd and short. No open A-Gap for the QB sneak, so you an unbalanced line to the right with both tackles next to each other. Then, you have a quick pitch to Dowdle who follows Luepke and big Steele and cuts behind Steele for an easy conversion and several more yards to inside the Cleveland 40. This is now a drive.

2Q - 7:41 - 1-10-CLV 39 - D.Prescott pass short middle to J.Brooks to CLV 21 for 18 yards

This is a nice play. We have 12/21 personnel with motion to the right that ends up as a wheel route by Tolbert deep. Play-action right, waggle back to the left and now Dak is on the run in space. Here he seems to be looking for Ferguson, but he is covered and so he gets back to Jalen Brooks underneath who then has plenty of room to run. Again, this is excellent QB play and I want more of this as we go. By now, you should be seeing why I enjoyed this drive so much.

2Q - 6:58 - 1-10-CLV 21 - D.Prescott pass short right to B.Cooks pushed ob at CLV 16 for 5 yards

Ninth play of the drive now. Back to tight splits out of 11 personnel with Lamb and Cooks using their stacked releases to cause traffic. Lamb draws the tighter coverage so Dak takes a quick and easy 5 for Cooks on first down. Quick and efficient. Keep marching..

2Q - 6:23 - 2-5-CLV 16 - D.Prescott pass short left to E.Elliott to CLV 7 for 9 yards

2nd and 5 and McCarthy is expecting a blitz here, I’d imagine. The stadium is getting antsy so the Browns want to stop this nonsense on the 10th play of the drive. They go middle screen with the two guards (does Cooper Beebe think the screen is going right?) getting out into space in front of Zeke and again, we have to admit, he looks convincingly elusive on this play. Tyler Smith gets a block, but then Zeke has to make the corner miss – and he does. Nine yards and another 1st down.
One Cleveland offsides later…

2Q - 5:18 - 1-3-CLV 3 - E.Elliott up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1st and Goal. It is the old Dak/Zeke zone read and Dak properly gives the ball to Zeke and of course follows Martin’s beautiful block right into the end zone. And that is how you cap off a most demoralizing drive.

11 plays, 78 yards, 5 1st downs, 5:56 elapsed. Just a thing of beauty.

Not a perfect day, but a lot to like from Week 1 in Cleveland. Tomorrow, news gets even better with a trip to “The Zimm Bin.”
 
Top Bottom