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Decoding McCarthy - Run Game Struggles
The success rates of this Cowboys offense must improve across the board and soon.
Bob Sturm
Sep 24, 2024
Here we go. Our objectives today:
If you recall 2012, you might rather forget it. Unfortunately, from an offensive standpoint, this Cowboys team has given us two weeks that put us right back in that space from 12 years ago.
Back then, we called it “Decoding [Redacted].” Now, it is called something different. But it was a bad, bad year for the Dallas Cowboys, and it really started because the offense could not play balanced football. I will circle back to that year in a second.
On Sunday, the Cowboys were very poor offensively. Yet, you will look at the points and the yards (you know, the fantasy football stuff) and feel like it was not too bad. But we all know better. We know how useless this offense was until the game went to 28-6 and the Ravens called off the tighter coverages. Only then did Dallas make a bit of a run.
They could not run the ball, and the passing was very difficult with killer penalties halting any temporary progress. Accordingly, they could not build any drives, as only two of their first six drives featured even two 1st downs. And to make sure nothing was working, there were few explosive plays, as usual.
Here is the drive chart that verifies how the first three quarters and seven drives went.
I would also present the following to show that the cosmetic 4th Quarter propped things up considerably. Let’s show you production by quarter, shall we?
And after the 1st quarter, the Cowboys tried 10 run plays. Ten! And yielded 26 yards. Only about one out of every four was successful.
Add in some untimely penalties and some ill-timed sacks, and this thing is a real mess right now, with people properly questioning the scheme and the ability for guys to get open.
Perhaps you heard the stat: the Ravens attempted zero tight-window throws according to NextGen Stats, and the Cowboys had to try 18. As you might expect, it didn’t turn out very well.
It might be worth noting the last time these receivers had such trouble getting open was right before the front office admitted they didn’t have enough talented targets and traded for Amari Cooper in 2018.
I am sure that is all a coincidence.
Let’s take a look at the offensive report, and in particular, the success rates that are much too low to demonstrate a proper offensive attack.
Now, to know what good success rates are, we first better learn what they are. So, this is how the NFL has defined them:
* Success Rate:
Now, a look back at the chart above shows that none of our numbers from Sunday exceed 38%.
So, yeah, just what you thought. It wasn’t just the defense that was putrid.
The horrendous run game
Of course, the elephant in the room is that the running game is brutal and it might be getting worse. First, we need to figure out how to adjust this job share because there is little question Dowdle is much better than the other two.
Dallas RB Success Rates:
There just isn’t anywhere to go.
First-down yards per run: 3.0 and a success rate of 22.9% which means they are 31st in each category. Interesting to see that Pittsburgh in 32nd in both right now and both teams have a rookie center (whom they both really like).
Overall, Dallas is 29th in yards per game rushing and yards per play rushing. And, we know that this is a great way to crush your entire offense if you cannot run at all.
This is all reminding us of 2012
I found 2011-2013 to be a painful time in Cowboys football. The entire thing was built on a very shaky foundation.
At the time, they had a QB who had just signed a massive contract, and many thought he was to blame because he should be carrying the offense better than he did. A young WR who was thought of as emotional but awesome. A strong TE. A few nice veteran offensive linemen. And a running game that they dreamed of being great (again), but they could never get there. Ever.
Here are the last 15 years of the Cowboys running the ball. Please look near the bottom to see where we are. Then notice how total yards rushing and winning seasons are sort of correlated. Weird!
But, it all started with the fact they could never run it. You can look at the game-log yourself and see how ugly it was.
In Week 2, they were in Seattle and ran 16 times for 49 yards for 3.1 a carry. Then, in Week 3 at home against Tampa Bay, it was 23 runs for 38 yards for 1.7 a carry. In Week 4, a home Monday night against Chicago, they kept running—14 carries for 41 yards for 2.9 per. That is 53 runs for 128 yards in three weeks.
In Week 8, they ran 17 times for 19 yards!
And each game followed the same general script. Have a game plan and speak about how it is a priority to take pressure off Tony Romo by running the ball. He is throwing too many times and taking too many hits. We are not balanced, and it is killing efficiency.
They would come out, run, and fail. Then punt. Then get frustrated, and by the 5th drive, they would scrap everything and run the two-minute offense for the rest of the game.
It worked better than the run game, but ultimately they would finish 8-8, 8-8, and 8-8 over a three-year span in Tony Romo’s prime with Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware. All four Cowboys heroes were ridiculed and ripped for not being good enough and making too much money.
I don’t know why I bring up that lousy time in Cowboys history, other than to say that this feels a lot like that.
Here are those 15 years again, and the red underline denotes playoff years.
So, yeah, six of the top eight are the best six seasons during these 15 years. Seems important!
Running the ball is not the most efficient way to build your offense, but without it, it is tough to have anything close to an elite attack.
Taking a look at the 2024 of RT Terence Steele
The Terence Steele story is a very important one. He is a great story and is also trying to put his knee injury behind him, but the results are mixed so far in 2024. In fact, this reel, from Kevin Utz, will show both the good (mostly run blocking) and the bad (mostly pass protection).
PFF has him as the best Cowboys run blocker and the worst Cowboys pass protector, even though there are two rookies up front. This, obviously, is not great. He has many stiff tests coming, but when you consider his cap charge jumps to $18.1m next year, you know they are watching him carefully. They signed a good deal with him in that they are already in a situation where they can walk away pretty quickly or keep him on a year-by-year situation.
Look at some All-22 film
OK, before we run out of time, I have decided to feature three players here in the All-22 portion of our entry today. I probably could have broken down some big passes against a soft Ravens coverage, but I will allow you to simply remember those moments fondly.
So, let’s circle back to yesterday when I basically said that this team cannot win – even in this current state – if Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are not excellent players every single week.
We start with Dak. I know, not enough easy throws and the scheme issues are starting to rear their heads. But, allow me to say, he had no location on his throws on Sunday and he is generally much better.
This reel is just not good enough and it needs to be much better moving forward. In particular, his “on the run” throws were mostly well off. Not every throw has to be perfect, but you could tell he was “off” all day long. Must be better.
And same for his buddy, CeeDee Lamb:
He is mostly a net-positive, but his fumble on Sunday was brutal. You cannot let that happen, and you cannot have a false start and 1-2 drops. You also cannot lose your emotions, and I know it is an emotional game, but he needs to realize he is now a leader. Whether you like it or not, you must stay dialed in and engaged.
Again, with both of them, we know the quality is there, and the bad games are rare. But when a team is in a slump, they need their best to be their best, and that absolutely did not happen on Sunday.
Finally, shout out to Nnamdi Madubuike, formerly Justin Madubuike, for looking like the type of guy who just signed a 4-year/$98 million deal. He was a force on Sunday and caused even the great Zack Martin and Tyler Smith a fair number of headaches.
He was a 3rd-rounder in 2020 out of Texas A&M and only started flashing in 2022 in his 3rd season. He only started dominating in his 4th season, and now, at age 26, he is in his 5th year and can be unblockable at times.
So, what is the point? Well, some guys need a few years to get going. Imagine the 2020 draft class in which the Cowboys had CeeDee Lamb and Trevon Diggs with their first two picks and wanted a DT in the 3rd round.
Madubuike went 10 picks before Dallas picked, and while we don’t know if he was their guy, we do know that Neville Gallimore now plays for the Los Angeles Rams after four pretty quiet seasons in Dallas.
Anyway, much, much more tomorrow—on the defense.
The success rates of this Cowboys offense must improve across the board and soon.
Bob Sturm
Sep 24, 2024
Here we go. Our objectives today:
- Evaluate the offense in general and closer looks at:
- The horrendous run game continues to be horrendous.
- This is all reminding us of 2012.
- Taking a look at the performances of RT Terence Steele.
- Look at some All-22 film and see what we can see.
If you recall 2012, you might rather forget it. Unfortunately, from an offensive standpoint, this Cowboys team has given us two weeks that put us right back in that space from 12 years ago.
Back then, we called it “Decoding [Redacted].” Now, it is called something different. But it was a bad, bad year for the Dallas Cowboys, and it really started because the offense could not play balanced football. I will circle back to that year in a second.
On Sunday, the Cowboys were very poor offensively. Yet, you will look at the points and the yards (you know, the fantasy football stuff) and feel like it was not too bad. But we all know better. We know how useless this offense was until the game went to 28-6 and the Ravens called off the tighter coverages. Only then did Dallas make a bit of a run.
They could not run the ball, and the passing was very difficult with killer penalties halting any temporary progress. Accordingly, they could not build any drives, as only two of their first six drives featured even two 1st downs. And to make sure nothing was working, there were few explosive plays, as usual.
Here is the drive chart that verifies how the first three quarters and seven drives went.
I would also present the following to show that the cosmetic 4th Quarter propped things up considerably. Let’s show you production by quarter, shall we?
- 1st Quarter: 19 plays for 102 yards. 5.37 per play, 42% success rate.
- 2nd Quarter: 12 plays for 67 yards. 5.58 per play, 25% success rate.
- 3rd Quarter: 12 plays for 52 yards. 4.33 per play, 33% success rate.
- 4th Quarter: 27 plays for 191 yards. 7.07 per play, 41% success rate.
And after the 1st quarter, the Cowboys tried 10 run plays. Ten! And yielded 26 yards. Only about one out of every four was successful.
Add in some untimely penalties and some ill-timed sacks, and this thing is a real mess right now, with people properly questioning the scheme and the ability for guys to get open.
Perhaps you heard the stat: the Ravens attempted zero tight-window throws according to NextGen Stats, and the Cowboys had to try 18. As you might expect, it didn’t turn out very well.
It might be worth noting the last time these receivers had such trouble getting open was right before the front office admitted they didn’t have enough talented targets and traded for Amari Cooper in 2018.
I am sure that is all a coincidence.
Let’s take a look at the offensive report, and in particular, the success rates that are much too low to demonstrate a proper offensive attack.
Now, to know what good success rates are, we first better learn what they are. So, this is how the NFL has defined them:
* Success Rate:
- 1st down: Gain 40% or more Yds To Go
- 2nd down: Gain 50% or more Yds To Go
- 3rd/4th down: Get first down
- Success is only evaluated on offensive plays, not special teams such as field goals, punts, or kickoffs
Now, a look back at the chart above shows that none of our numbers from Sunday exceed 38%.
So, yeah, just what you thought. It wasn’t just the defense that was putrid.
The horrendous run game
Of course, the elephant in the room is that the running game is brutal and it might be getting worse. First, we need to figure out how to adjust this job share because there is little question Dowdle is much better than the other two.
Dallas RB Success Rates:
- Dowdle: 10 for 23 (44%)
- Elliott: 5 of 19 (26%)
- Vaughn: 0 of 7 (0)
- TOTAL: 15 of 49 (31%)
There just isn’t anywhere to go.
First-down yards per run: 3.0 and a success rate of 22.9% which means they are 31st in each category. Interesting to see that Pittsburgh in 32nd in both right now and both teams have a rookie center (whom they both really like).
Overall, Dallas is 29th in yards per game rushing and yards per play rushing. And, we know that this is a great way to crush your entire offense if you cannot run at all.
This is all reminding us of 2012
I found 2011-2013 to be a painful time in Cowboys football. The entire thing was built on a very shaky foundation.
At the time, they had a QB who had just signed a massive contract, and many thought he was to blame because he should be carrying the offense better than he did. A young WR who was thought of as emotional but awesome. A strong TE. A few nice veteran offensive linemen. And a running game that they dreamed of being great (again), but they could never get there. Ever.
Here are the last 15 years of the Cowboys running the ball. Please look near the bottom to see where we are. Then notice how total yards rushing and winning seasons are sort of correlated. Weird!
But, it all started with the fact they could never run it. You can look at the game-log yourself and see how ugly it was.
In Week 2, they were in Seattle and ran 16 times for 49 yards for 3.1 a carry. Then, in Week 3 at home against Tampa Bay, it was 23 runs for 38 yards for 1.7 a carry. In Week 4, a home Monday night against Chicago, they kept running—14 carries for 41 yards for 2.9 per. That is 53 runs for 128 yards in three weeks.
In Week 8, they ran 17 times for 19 yards!
And each game followed the same general script. Have a game plan and speak about how it is a priority to take pressure off Tony Romo by running the ball. He is throwing too many times and taking too many hits. We are not balanced, and it is killing efficiency.
They would come out, run, and fail. Then punt. Then get frustrated, and by the 5th drive, they would scrap everything and run the two-minute offense for the rest of the game.
It worked better than the run game, but ultimately they would finish 8-8, 8-8, and 8-8 over a three-year span in Tony Romo’s prime with Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware. All four Cowboys heroes were ridiculed and ripped for not being good enough and making too much money.
I don’t know why I bring up that lousy time in Cowboys history, other than to say that this feels a lot like that.
Here are those 15 years again, and the red underline denotes playoff years.
So, yeah, six of the top eight are the best six seasons during these 15 years. Seems important!
Running the ball is not the most efficient way to build your offense, but without it, it is tough to have anything close to an elite attack.
Taking a look at the 2024 of RT Terence Steele
The Terence Steele story is a very important one. He is a great story and is also trying to put his knee injury behind him, but the results are mixed so far in 2024. In fact, this reel, from Kevin Utz, will show both the good (mostly run blocking) and the bad (mostly pass protection).
PFF has him as the best Cowboys run blocker and the worst Cowboys pass protector, even though there are two rookies up front. This, obviously, is not great. He has many stiff tests coming, but when you consider his cap charge jumps to $18.1m next year, you know they are watching him carefully. They signed a good deal with him in that they are already in a situation where they can walk away pretty quickly or keep him on a year-by-year situation.
Look at some All-22 film
OK, before we run out of time, I have decided to feature three players here in the All-22 portion of our entry today. I probably could have broken down some big passes against a soft Ravens coverage, but I will allow you to simply remember those moments fondly.
So, let’s circle back to yesterday when I basically said that this team cannot win – even in this current state – if Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are not excellent players every single week.
We start with Dak. I know, not enough easy throws and the scheme issues are starting to rear their heads. But, allow me to say, he had no location on his throws on Sunday and he is generally much better.
This reel is just not good enough and it needs to be much better moving forward. In particular, his “on the run” throws were mostly well off. Not every throw has to be perfect, but you could tell he was “off” all day long. Must be better.
And same for his buddy, CeeDee Lamb:
He is mostly a net-positive, but his fumble on Sunday was brutal. You cannot let that happen, and you cannot have a false start and 1-2 drops. You also cannot lose your emotions, and I know it is an emotional game, but he needs to realize he is now a leader. Whether you like it or not, you must stay dialed in and engaged.
Again, with both of them, we know the quality is there, and the bad games are rare. But when a team is in a slump, they need their best to be their best, and that absolutely did not happen on Sunday.
Finally, shout out to Nnamdi Madubuike, formerly Justin Madubuike, for looking like the type of guy who just signed a 4-year/$98 million deal. He was a force on Sunday and caused even the great Zack Martin and Tyler Smith a fair number of headaches.
He was a 3rd-rounder in 2020 out of Texas A&M and only started flashing in 2022 in his 3rd season. He only started dominating in his 4th season, and now, at age 26, he is in his 5th year and can be unblockable at times.
So, what is the point? Well, some guys need a few years to get going. Imagine the 2020 draft class in which the Cowboys had CeeDee Lamb and Trevon Diggs with their first two picks and wanted a DT in the 3rd round.
Madubuike went 10 picks before Dallas picked, and while we don’t know if he was their guy, we do know that Neville Gallimore now plays for the Los Angeles Rams after four pretty quiet seasons in Dallas.
Anyway, much, much more tomorrow—on the defense.
