Sturm: Decoding McCarthy - Not Good Enough

dpf1123

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
2,576
Decoding McCarthy - Not Good Enough
When an offense is not sure what it is good at doing, things just never look right.

Bob Sturm
Oct 29, 2024




Our Decoding objectives today:
  • The Offensive Overview from San Francisco
  • Dak Prescott vs Brock Purdy - a bleak reality.
  • The Final Drive
  • Could somebody help this guy? - WR edition
  • Could somebody help this guy? - OL edition
Let’s get busy:
Last year, the San Francisco game hit in Week 5 and was sort of a line of demarcation with regard to the offense. They left their tail-beating in Northern California and emerged with a different identity. By the time Dallas came out of their bye week with 43 points against the Rams in Week 8.

I just don’t know if this team has another idea right now.

What we see coming out of the bye week is generally the same offense with the same flaws. What are they?
  • They simply cannot run the football no matter what or who they try.
  • They are bottom 5 in the league at pass protection.
  • They have one consistent play-maker on the entire offense.
With these constraints, I am not sure what our advice would be to the scheme or play sequencing because it is all going to look uphill. We have enough evidence to see that they are just not very productive at all and when they do start to find some solutions, they are usually behind by double-digits and must throw caution to the wind (added to that would be that defenses probably soften their coverages which explain the late-game production against Baltimore and San Francisco that cosmetically made things look a bit less brutal).

Here are the numbers from this loss to the 49ers which was close enough, but definitely not as close as we will make it out to be:


Again, under 300 yards combined with multiple giveaways. Poor 3rd downs, including the entire second half of zero conversions – something that happens plenty against this particular defense. And when you look at success rates, you see that 2-of-3 runs are failed.

So, yeah, pass the ball because that is what gives you a chance. But, you also aren’t getting much pass protection and only one receiver threatens your opponent at all.
What I just described to you is what we would call a very difficult scenario for any QB to be successful. So yes, we will get to Dak Prescott and his shortcomings, but I encourage you to hand-pick your perfect QB and put him in this offense and see how well things go. I would recommend Patrick Mahomes, but short of that, I am not sure anyone can make this group effective for more than a few glimpses here and there. If you think everything is on him, you might be a bit stubbornly frustrated at this point.

He has very little chance.

As you can see, the production is limited to two 1st half drives and then two late up-tempo drives where CeeDee Lamb was able to find plenty of space. And that is it. Of their first nine drives, seven were absolutely pointless and self-damaging.


The reality is that this team is committed to running the ball, while being incredibly bad at doing that. They average about 22 runs a game, so we cannot suggest for even a second that they aren’t giving it a chance. We could argue they are giving it too much of a chance and suffocating themselves, to be fair. Yet, they are 32nd in yards and 32nd in yards-per-play. Rough.


Here is the game-by-game rushing situation. Note the four losses are also the four worst rushing days.


All this on top of the bizarre Rico Dowdle story and getting Dalvin Cook out there. But, as you can see, the partnership of Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook would have been amazing in 2018, but in 2024, we should never consider it again. 2.9 per carry?

This, of course, is the circular logic we often get into with offensive evaluations. If they are poor at running but then never try, we ask why they don’t commit to it. But, then they commit to it and fail, so we ask why they are wasting valuable downs where they could be looking for passing opportunities.

But, when they pass, their QB is getting hit and it feels there are very few coverage winners on the roster and field. In effect, as summarized yesterday, we see the offense like this:
Prescott has to be much better, but they have provided him with no answers. The weapons are not threatening besides CeeDee Lamb. The protection is poor. The scheme is clearly not offering solutions, and Prescott is running for his life. Find a QB who can make this work with all of that working against him. Both can be true: he has been bad, and the team has failed him.
Now, on to that QB.

Dak Prescott vs Brock Purdy - a bleak reality.


This is from Friday’s preview piece:
Everything the Cowboys have tried to do offensively this season has looked difficult. They have no real identity that we can detect, and the quality looks scarce. For a team built to push the ball down the field, there is a lack of production and explosion. They have one weapon that scares opponents, so defenses set traps around CeeDee Lamb intended to make the QB hesitate and walk into mistakes. They roll coverage to Lamb, so you either ignore him or force the ball to him. Both options play into the basic strategies opponents use to keep Dallas from establishing any rhythm.
Dak has to be at his best. There is simply no other way to win this game unless he is your best player.
My brief objectives are somewhat obvious: play a clean game in terms of turnovers, but Dak needs to be aggressive. They have to find solutions that allow them to avoid situations where they are passing out of necessity. Some screens and a quick game to the perimeter will give them a chance, but efficiency on 3rd down and in the red zone will be key.
Play a clean game, no turnovers. That really didn’t make it two possessions. In past seasons, he has not thrown into danger and he also had a defense that could get turnovers back in most games. Not against this opponent, but most of the year. Now, the defense gets no takeaways – two takeaways since Week 2 is about as bad as it gets – so every giveaway looks fatal.

But, more than anything, since that 2022 playoff game, we have asked Dak Prescott to do one thing in this matchup: be the best QB on the field. Not the best in the league or the best in the conference. Just be the best of the two QBs who are playing in his game. If the Cowboys can get their QB to do as much good and as little bad as the QB across the field, then we can absolve him of the blame game and give this team the best chance to win.

So, how many times in this matchup has he outplayed the 49ers QB? I would say he is now 0-4 and 0-3 against Brock Purdy on both the scoreboard and the matchup of QB1’s. And that is a millstone I cannot rationalize.

Here are the running game logs:
Brock Purdy vs Dallas




Brock’s sum total in three starts against Dallas: 54-79-726-5 tds-0 ints
Dak Prescott vs San Francisco




Dak’s sum total in four starts against San Francisco: 85-142-856, 5 touchdowns, 8 interceptions.

That means Brock’s QB Rating vs Dallas overall is 118.4 and Dak’s vs San Fran is 65.4.

You can’t win that way.

I took the liberty to put the red box around the interceptions. That stat does not mean everything, but if one guy is throwing eight and the other guy is throwing zero, we really have a hard time absolving our guy from the arrows he is receiving.


We aren’t here to say he isn’t throwing some nice passes, but the two picks continue a trend where he is throwing too many.

He is a very good QB over his career. I am not interested in revisionist history from the “he was never good” crowd or the “you guys over-rated him” folks, of which there are many these days. The fact of the matter is that the 2024 version of Dak is playing his worst football at a time when his contract and his team’s malpractice in maintaining a top offense around him has made him a massive target.

But, he must be better. For his entire career, he has been a QB who is under 3% for turnover-worthy plays. But, this year he is over 5%. Only Jalen Hurts has as many turnover-worthy plays as Dak Prescott this year by percentage. Nobody has as many actual turnover-worthy plays as Prescott’s 16. Last year, he played an entire season with just 17. So, this is really killing things and it is an issue. We should not pretend otherwise.

Let’s look at this week’s interceptions that were both pretty unnecessary.

1Q - 4:35 - 1-10-SF 45 - D.Prescott pass deep left intended for K.Turpin INTERCEPTED by J.Brown [N.Bosa] at SF 8.

So, when are interceptions most unnecessary? When the game is not hanging in the balance. This is the first quarter with San Francisco up 3-0. This is 1st down. These indicators both should tell a veteran QB that we are not going to throw anything deep down the field and into a strong wind unless it looks too good to pass up. I see Cover 1 with Lamb wide right and Turpin wide left. I see Sam Okuayinonu against Tyler Guyton and Nick Bosa against Terence Steele both winning their rushes. Most importantly, I see a middle safety high who is shaded to Turpin and with the help of the head wind, he is able to take advantage of a ball that will not fly – especially as Bosa is hitting Prescott. This is a bad decision by my QB and if you want a solution, the comeback to Lamb is open and safe. It is 1st down and it is the first quarter. Why are we forcing the ball into danger?

3Q - 11:37 - 3-4-DAL 17 - D.Prescott pass short left intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by D.Lenoir at DAL 32.

This one is less egregious, but still problematic. 3rd and 4 and early in the third quarter at 13-10, San Francisco. They want to roll left (away from Bosa who has been killing Steele) and Dak wants to keep the drive alive. He has time, but he is on the run and throwing across the body back to Jalen Brooks is dangerous, so I would push back on those who suggest that is the easy read. I think that is where tipped balls by rushers make that risky. But, instead he is either late or short on his throw to Lamb and possibly both. An earlier throw has a chance and even when he did throw it, if he can lead him with a lofted toss to the inside at about the 35, I think Lamb can adjust. But instead, he throws it at a depth where Lenoir can recover and is really the only one with a chance at the ball. I saw Lamb was criticized by some for not helping, but I think that is harsh. This is just a bad plan and you are best killing the play and taking the punt. He did not and the 49ers quickly made them pay with another touchdown.

The Final Drive

Several asked me to look into that final drive where Dallas had the ball and 3:05 to go get the win. They quickly went four-and-out, but what did we see on this possession?

It wasn’t the best.

4Q - 3:05 - 1-10-DAL 25 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to C.Lamb (F.Warner).

Looks like Cover 4 from the 49ers and the dagger concept from Lamb and Turpin which is a vertical from the slot (Turpin) to clear out the deep middle and then a dig from Lamb behind it in what should be an open space. This is a great Cover 4 beater and it should work.
But, for whatever reason, Dak throws it too soon and ends up throwing it into a dropping LB and slot who are trying to get back into the dig spot at about 15 yards. For me, if he waits and let’s things develop – the protection is fine – then Lamb will pop open right when he crosses the center logo. Lamb will have leverage and he will have a chance for a huge gain. I wish I knew what Dak saw here because the concept is going to work if he doesn’t feel rushed. He was just too antsy on this throw and it should have been picked off. But, the 49ers let them off the hook. Second Down.

4Q - 3:00 - 2-10-DAL 25 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right.

This play looks like Dallas is expecting man and they get a split-safety zone. I see Cover 6 with quarter-quarter-half on the left. So, the mirrored routes of a corner from the 1s and an out from the inside targets are not great against this coverage. Therefore, in a perfect world, you dump it to your RB who has the entire middle and just has to make a LB miss. But, that is Zeke vs Fred Warner and Dak doesn’t like that and I agree. This is why you need a better 3rd down/2-minute RB option, by the way, who can make a man miss in space. Dak feels pressure, is flushed, and throws it away. I think he did the right thing once the 49ers fooled him on coverage.

4Q - 2:55 - 3-10-DAL 25 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to K.Turpin.

Third and 10. Dallas knows they are getting Cover 1 and they know a blitz is coming. They are ready. The QB must make a play. He does. The throw is perfect from 50 yards. Kavontae Turpin has a chance to make a memory and the ball hits him in both hands. I don’t know how else to say it. In the NFL, this is a catch that must be made and a real demonstration on how the roster is not where the roster needs to be if you are asking a short return man to do something he might not be capable of doing. I would rather not see Turpin in this capacity moving forward.

4Q - 2:49 - 4-10-DAL 25 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to J.Brooks.

This is just no way to make a living on 4th and 10. The 49ers are in 2-man an dline up Bosa so wide that Dak naturally rolls away from him. But when you roll right there is no great option for the Qb before he gets smacked so he has to simply throw the ball in the path of a hopeful Jalen Brooks. Brooks appears to be interfered with, but I suppose a WR like him is not going to get the benefit of the doubt in a situation like this.

In summary, that drive was not hopeless, but QB bust on 1st down and WR bust on third down tells you that the opportunities were not properly seized.

Could somebody help this guy? - TE/WR edition

Which brings us back to the greater issue. The QB is under enormous pressure to save this season, but at least twice on Sunday, he offered an opportunity to guys not-named CeeDee to make their names. And both times, the players had the ball in both hands and neither time did they make a play.
First, rookie TE Brevyn Spann-Ford who has two career catches. Here, in the second quarter, he has an opportunity.

2Q - 3:49 - 2-7-SF 10 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to B.Spann-Ford (M.Mustapha).


12 personnel and they want the 49ers to be alerted to Jake Ferguson so that you can get the 6’7 Spann-Ford isolated against Mustapha, a barely 5-foot-10 safety. Love the idea and I love the throw. Put it up where your guy can high-point it and make a play. Spann-Ford has it in both hands off the great throw, but Mustapha rallies and knocks it free to save the touchdown. I’d like to think that play changes the game as it would be 14-3, Dallas. But, instead, they settle for a field goal.

And then this Turpin play. Slow it down. You won’t see a better pass from that distance. Michael Gallup has made that play many times. Amari Cooper. Heck, Jalen Tolbert can do it. I just don’t think this team can survive if Lamb is the only guy who can make a catch that is slightly difficult.

So, yeah, Dak must be better. But, I bet that starts with a few of the kids stepping up. On the other hand, sometimes undrafted and USFL free agents are not quite the weapons that premium talents would be.

Yes, Dak is the one with the big contract, but at some point, someone make a play to help him out.

Could somebody help this guy? - OL edition


It was worth noting on Sunday Night Football what the PFF rankings were for each of the offensive line starters for Dallas. As of our report this morning, here is where each ranks:

At left tackle, PFF tells us that of those with 50% total snaps, rookie Tyler Guyton is the 53rd best pass protecting tackle and 56th best of 62 league-wide for his total grade.

At right tackle, Terence Steele is 58th in pass pro and 47th overall (of 62).

At left guard, Tyler Smith is 19th in pass pro and 11th overall of 59 full-time guards.

At right guard, Zack Martin is 35th and 30th.

And at center, rookie Cooper Beebe is 15th in pass pro and 20th overall of 30 centers.

As a unit, Dallas is 28th of 32 in pass protection and 21st in run blocking.

In other words, it is a work in progress. It should get better week by week, but we are concerned with the right side regressing as Zack Martin and Terence Steele are both playing poorly by their standards.

Here is a cut-up of Dak throwing under pressure on Sunday Night.

Again, we like that they fought and we like that CeeDee Lamb was getting free and Dak was hitting him. But, I just don’t know how this offense can take big steps forward right now without being able to run the ball and seemingly having only one dynamic offensive weapon. Jake Ferguson was supposed to be more of a special option, but he has not appeared to be as formidable now that the league is preparing for him with better cover options. Beyond that, they need easier options for their QB and based on what we are seeing, they cannot provide them.

Tomorrow, on to the defense.
 

Bill Shatner

Lock phasers on target
Joined
Mar 17, 2020
Messages
7,708
Yeah, looks like we're still looking for a TE. Turd seems to be regulated to flat routes and underneath shit these days.
 

boozeman

29 Years And Counting...
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
132,256
If they move Guyton to RG then they fucking wasted a draft pick. That dude would be a terrible guard.

RT, sure, I think he would be good there. I'd rather see him develop at LT though.
I am not saying he is the next Larry Allen, but we need to decide where Smith goes. Guard is a waste for him. Martin retires, we need a guard if Bass goes to the right side.
 

bbgun

let the durs continue
Joined
Apr 9, 2013
Messages
27,781
He's really struggling with inside rip moves by defensive ends. Most of his holding calls are of that variety.
 

boozeman

29 Years And Counting...
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
132,256
I cannot decide what side of the football has been more disappointing but the offensive ineptitude bothers me more because, well, it is the same guys designing things.
 
Joined
Jan 2, 2022
Messages
1,298
The main problem is Fat Mike is still running the tecmo bowl version of the West coast offense which is extremely predictable… it’s no Shanahan version …teams are having an easy time defending this …
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
56,333
I cannot decide what side of the football has been more disappointing but the offensive ineptitude bothers me more because, well, it is the same guys designing things.
They both bother me. They are both badly under performing. At least the defense can claim injuries. The offense has no excuse for how awful it looks.

Although the run game was a train wreck we all saw coming.
 

mcnuttz

Senior Junior Mod
Staff member
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
16,477
I cannot decide what side of the football has been more disappointing but the offensive ineptitude bothers me more because, well, it is the same guys designing things.
Lost so many defensive guys and then injuries kinda kicked in.

On offense we obviously have no RB, but Beebe is filling in fine for Biadasz.

Whatever their plan was on offense was shit and it obviously can't work with a QB who didn't play preseason and takes half the season to get warmed up.

Why can't the line run block at all? Has Martin really fallen off so quickly?
 

Genghis Khan

The worst version of myself
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
42,707
The main problem is Fat Mike is still running the tecmo bowl version of the West coast offense which is extremely predictable… it’s no Shanahan version …teams are having an easy time defending this …

The main problem of the offense is personnel in my opinion.

They have Lamb, and...........?
 

Texas Ace

I'll Never Dream Again
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
26,085
We were not behind the times with Gailey. He was a hot shot OC at one time.
And for a year (1998) he got the offense back on track and revived Emmitt's career after a very poor 1997.

But by the middle of 99, the offense became too predictable. The injuries suffered that season didn't help but neither did calling that jet sweep to Rocket Ismail a thousand times.
 
Top Bottom