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Decoding McCarthy - Not easy, but it worked
The Cowboys got the A-game they needed from their QB
Bob Sturm
Sep 30, 2024
Here we go. Our objectives today:
THE OFFENSIVE OVERVIEW
Nothing is terribly easy right now for the Cowboys offense. There are plenty of complaints that the scheme isn’t helping them, but I think it is more complex than our tried and true go-to move about the play-calling is stale.
To me, the Cowboys offense – which struggled again to get a very modest 20 points and very paltry 293 yards of offense – is dealing with many things at the same time and none of them are great news (but predictable!).
The long and short of things is that the Cowboys' offense has fine individual pieces but has yet to figure out any identity other than getting the ball to CeeDee Lamb as much as possible and hoping he breaks a big play. When it happens, they can win. When it doesn’t happen, they will struggle to build drives, cash in the red zone, and ultimately, getting to 24 points and 350 yards is a very difficult task.
But, to their credit, they scratched out enough on Thursday, despite the Giants being a better defense than we have seen from them in quite a while.
Here is the data from Week 4, and we (Kevin Utz) have added some new elements since people are very interested in motion and play-action rates each week.
Now, as you can see, this was a great day for passing the ball. Dak Prescott was exceptional and played his best game of the year – plenty more on that a bit below. But we must also concede that there is an inefficiency problem right now, where the Cowboys rank 15th in 3rd down and 15th in red zone efficiency. That won’t work.
In short, there are two ways to win offensively. Either you roll up yardage and go down the field at will with big plays and fireworks, or you make the most of your gains and always maximize things with efficient work on the “money downs.” They aren’t great at either right now. Usually, the Cowboys are a great 3rd down team, which speaks highly of their QB play and precision against blitzes. But they are struggling in the first month in both production and efficiency, and that is why these games seem like a slog.
Which leads us back to why I don’t think more “creativity” is needed on this offense. The motion is not that dissimilar to what it has always been. The reality seems to be more that they just don’t have the superior skill position talent they’ve had in recent years. Could a more varied route tree for guys like Brandin Cooks make them more effective? Possibly, but then you are exposing Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe to longer pass protection assignments. So, they are trying to walk the tightrope of asking more without risking Dak getting hit too much. There are pros and cons to every decision in a game plan.
And I think it is important for us to recognize that, as opposed to thinking a coaching staff is just not as smart as we are.
Thursday was very good in many respects:
The second drive of the game was beautifully done and set the tone for the game. Then they came back on the next drive and hit the big play to CeeDee after going for it on 4th down. In the 2nd half, they had three scoring drives, but only found six points from it (efficiency!) and that is why this game was so tight in the end. You have to deliver a 2nd half kill shot to make this thing work. If you do score one 2nd half touchdown, then you are probably feeling like the game was a real success instead of a skinny win.
Dak Prescott plays his “A” game
This game was won because you got a Tom Brady game from Dak. I think of that as a game where the ball is both on time and on target all night, and mistakes are avoided. It doesn’t have to be huge fantasy numbers, and it doesn’t have to be a highlight film, but if you can put the ball right where it needs to be with a few big-time throws mixed in, then you are a driver of success.
Last year, Dak Prescott put his best year out there. He had the highest “big-time throw” percentage of his career and the lowest “turnover-worthy play” percentage. When you marry those two stats and have that big a margin – 41 BTTs and 17 TWPs – you see why he was among the best in the industry. This year, he has not been a plus player in any of the three weeks, but on Thursday, we had 2 BTTs and 0 TWPs. That is a performance Brady would endorse. And it is also a performance that he has to make a regular thing for this current form of the offense to prosper. Coming off his worst week, I am impressed that he was so good from the opening kick.
The good things about making $60 million are quite obvious. The downside is that you only have two types of games: the ones in which you are not playing well enough to be worth that, and then the ones where you are great and people say, “Well, for that money, he should.” Admittedly, this is his cross to bear, but this is the first elite game of his season, and I am here to ask for more, please.
The green dots won’t tell the story, but the film will. This first one was a 3rd down early that really is wonderful work from QB1.
1Q - 6:26 - 3-3-DAL 48 - D.Prescott pass short middle to H.Luepke to NYG 41 for 11 yards
The Giants beat Tyler Guyton immediately and Dak has to sort out things while running for his life. He is looking in all sorts of directions and comes back to Hunter Luepke at the last moment before he gets hit hard. Even the throw looks behind him until you see he is trying to thread a needle between two defenders as he is taking a real smack. Just elite work here.
1Q - 5:13 - 2-9-NYG 40 - D.Prescott pass short right to C.Lamb to NYG 30 for 10 yards
His very next throw is also a beauty. CeeDee Lamb is covered. There is no opening here. This is why I mention Brady. He would do this so much it would make the opposing defenses scream. How did he do that? What else can 3-Deonte Banks do? This is what on-time and on-target looks like and that isn’t easy.
1Q - 3:28 - 3-3-NYG 23 - D.Prescott pass short middle to B.Cooks to NYG 7 for 16 yards
A few snaps later, Dak is feeling it. Motion Cooks down so Ferguson can help him get free against 28-Cor’Dale Flott and Prescott again rips one right on his hands as Flott dives to get a piece. Hits the man on the run and in stride and you cannot play the quick game better than that. Again, this is an A+ throw and he is hitting them over and over early in this game.
1Q - 2:13 - 2-15-NYG 15 - D.Prescott pass short left to R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
All these plays have one thing in common. They are quick. They clearly do not want their rookies to have to protect for a full drop and scan. They are building the boat while at sea, so precision and timing is required. Here, after a Guyton hold, they try on 2nd down to get a screen to Dowdle going. As you know, this one is not run perfectly as Ferguson might get away with a penalty and Beebe misses his guy. But Dowdle looks good in space and gets it in to end the drive properly. Let’s see more of that.
2Q - 9:59 - 4-1-DAL 39 - H.Luepke left end to DAL 45 for 6 yards (K.Thibodeaux).
This is a key play, of course. The Cowboys decide to go for it from inside their own 40. They don’t like the QB sneak because Dexter Lawrence and I get it. So, here comes the very useful Luepke again to try to find a yard and to his credit, he has to make Kayvon Thibodeaux miss to keep the drive alive. I don’t know how much Luepke can ultimately do, but I am so impressed with what he has shown. Not saying he is your Kyle Juszczyk, but, I wonder how much you can hand him. He is really a nice player.
And that play is vital because of the next one…
2Q - 9:25 - 1-10-DAL 45 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
From the Morning After piece:
I mean, for him to respond to the Baltimore game with this one is most encouraging. I’m not sure I can explain the accuracy differences, but if he is working on anything mechanically, it was a marked improvement and it is where he needs to live for this thing to work.
Rico Dowdle is RB1 and it isn’t very close.
Meanwhile, we continue to see the differences between Rico Dowdle and everyone else the Cowboys try in the backfield. I am not here to say that he is an excellent NFL RB, but in this room, he is the closest they have. Here is a montage of his successful work on Thursday, and again, it isn’t even close between him and everyone else:
He hits it hard and with conviction. He has a fine burst and does not 2nd guess himself. Grab the ball and get north and I would continue to center much of it on him. His pass blocking is “good enough” and the rest of it is excellent. I like what he has shown. Again, they need to run the ball and I would like it to mostly be him.
Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe school of hard knocks.
We will end it here. We cannot lose sight of a fact of life in the NFL: having one rookie starter is very difficult for contenders. Having two rookie starters on your OL is crazy. I imagine it is rarely tried because it is one of the hardest things for a team that is trying to win to ever pull off.
The Cowboys not only tried it, but they tried it without injury influencing the decisions. This was their actual plan.
Now, the dividends could be special. When these guys reach year 3 and they are both destroying things, the Cowboys could be laughing. But for now, they clearly are using training wheels because they want to work around it. They are playing well – for rookies – and we cannot lose sight of that. There has been no point at which I ever thought they needed to be taken out. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t concessions being made to help them along.
We made cut-ups of both against the Giants. The first one is Guyton. I put all of his key plays in here – good and bad. And I would say there is plenty of both.
As you can see, Thibodeaux was giving him fits. Those inside moves, especially. I loved the battle and the determination, but we can see he has a ways to go on technique and mastering the craft.
Of the 55 tackles in the NFL who have played 50% of the snaps so far, he is graded 49th by PFF. His pass protection and his run blocking need work, and by now, it appears his technique and confidence are down a bit from the preseason. This is to be expected. Again, he is very good, and the ceiling is very high, but he faces a different beast every week, and this is about as tough a spot as you can put a guy who was a right tackle for Oklahoma last year and is now a left tackle in the NFL.
So, my summary on Guyton is that we should be pleased, but if you want to know why the offense is not running smoothly, it is because they are trying to protect him and Beebe.
Now, to Beebe’s cut-up. We did not circle him because I bet you can find the center every snap on your own.
For Beebe, they were trying to protect him against Lawrence this week, and again, given the circumstances, he held up pretty well. He is very strong, and like Guyton, play balance will always be the work. When they get too top-heavy, they are easy to knock off their balance, and that gets you beat or on the ground. This was his biggest test, but he survived, and they both will improve.
Of the 30 full-time centers who exceed the 50% snap threshold so far, he is 24th in the NFL on the PFF scale. And, in terms of pass blocking, he is 7th best. The run blocking is 28th and where he struggles for now.
But again, I know it strips the offense down a bit to do this, but I am completely undaunted in my belief in both of them.
In closing, some very good stuff on Thursday to take to Pittsburgh. Now, the offense needs to do more heavy lifting as the defense is losing pieces and not playing great. So, the coaches will need to continue to slide the balances in that direction.
Let’s see how they handle Pittsburgh.
The Cowboys got the A-game they needed from their QB
Bob Sturm
Sep 30, 2024
Here we go. Our objectives today:
- The Offensive Overview from Thursday in New York.
- Dak Prescott plays his “A” game.
- Rico Dowdle is easily a cut above the others.
- Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe school of hard knocks.
THE OFFENSIVE OVERVIEW
Nothing is terribly easy right now for the Cowboys offense. There are plenty of complaints that the scheme isn’t helping them, but I think it is more complex than our tried and true go-to move about the play-calling is stale.
To me, the Cowboys offense – which struggled again to get a very modest 20 points and very paltry 293 yards of offense – is dealing with many things at the same time and none of them are great news (but predictable!).
- They don’t trust their offensive line yet and are trying to be very smart about what they are asking the rookies to do.
- Therefore every play and concept has to be quick and that is making big plays down the field tougher to find.
- And that is revealing that there might just be one “difference maker” at the skill positions.
- Which is mitigated even more by the worst running game in the NFL through four weeks.
The long and short of things is that the Cowboys' offense has fine individual pieces but has yet to figure out any identity other than getting the ball to CeeDee Lamb as much as possible and hoping he breaks a big play. When it happens, they can win. When it doesn’t happen, they will struggle to build drives, cash in the red zone, and ultimately, getting to 24 points and 350 yards is a very difficult task.
But, to their credit, they scratched out enough on Thursday, despite the Giants being a better defense than we have seen from them in quite a while.
Here is the data from Week 4, and we (Kevin Utz) have added some new elements since people are very interested in motion and play-action rates each week.
Now, as you can see, this was a great day for passing the ball. Dak Prescott was exceptional and played his best game of the year – plenty more on that a bit below. But we must also concede that there is an inefficiency problem right now, where the Cowboys rank 15th in 3rd down and 15th in red zone efficiency. That won’t work.
In short, there are two ways to win offensively. Either you roll up yardage and go down the field at will with big plays and fireworks, or you make the most of your gains and always maximize things with efficient work on the “money downs.” They aren’t great at either right now. Usually, the Cowboys are a great 3rd down team, which speaks highly of their QB play and precision against blitzes. But they are struggling in the first month in both production and efficiency, and that is why these games seem like a slog.
Which leads us back to why I don’t think more “creativity” is needed on this offense. The motion is not that dissimilar to what it has always been. The reality seems to be more that they just don’t have the superior skill position talent they’ve had in recent years. Could a more varied route tree for guys like Brandin Cooks make them more effective? Possibly, but then you are exposing Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe to longer pass protection assignments. So, they are trying to walk the tightrope of asking more without risking Dak getting hit too much. There are pros and cons to every decision in a game plan.
And I think it is important for us to recognize that, as opposed to thinking a coaching staff is just not as smart as we are.
Thursday was very good in many respects:
The second drive of the game was beautifully done and set the tone for the game. Then they came back on the next drive and hit the big play to CeeDee after going for it on 4th down. In the 2nd half, they had three scoring drives, but only found six points from it (efficiency!) and that is why this game was so tight in the end. You have to deliver a 2nd half kill shot to make this thing work. If you do score one 2nd half touchdown, then you are probably feeling like the game was a real success instead of a skinny win.
Dak Prescott plays his “A” game
This game was won because you got a Tom Brady game from Dak. I think of that as a game where the ball is both on time and on target all night, and mistakes are avoided. It doesn’t have to be huge fantasy numbers, and it doesn’t have to be a highlight film, but if you can put the ball right where it needs to be with a few big-time throws mixed in, then you are a driver of success.
Last year, Dak Prescott put his best year out there. He had the highest “big-time throw” percentage of his career and the lowest “turnover-worthy play” percentage. When you marry those two stats and have that big a margin – 41 BTTs and 17 TWPs – you see why he was among the best in the industry. This year, he has not been a plus player in any of the three weeks, but on Thursday, we had 2 BTTs and 0 TWPs. That is a performance Brady would endorse. And it is also a performance that he has to make a regular thing for this current form of the offense to prosper. Coming off his worst week, I am impressed that he was so good from the opening kick.
The good things about making $60 million are quite obvious. The downside is that you only have two types of games: the ones in which you are not playing well enough to be worth that, and then the ones where you are great and people say, “Well, for that money, he should.” Admittedly, this is his cross to bear, but this is the first elite game of his season, and I am here to ask for more, please.
The green dots won’t tell the story, but the film will. This first one was a 3rd down early that really is wonderful work from QB1.
1Q - 6:26 - 3-3-DAL 48 - D.Prescott pass short middle to H.Luepke to NYG 41 for 11 yards
The Giants beat Tyler Guyton immediately and Dak has to sort out things while running for his life. He is looking in all sorts of directions and comes back to Hunter Luepke at the last moment before he gets hit hard. Even the throw looks behind him until you see he is trying to thread a needle between two defenders as he is taking a real smack. Just elite work here.
1Q - 5:13 - 2-9-NYG 40 - D.Prescott pass short right to C.Lamb to NYG 30 for 10 yards
His very next throw is also a beauty. CeeDee Lamb is covered. There is no opening here. This is why I mention Brady. He would do this so much it would make the opposing defenses scream. How did he do that? What else can 3-Deonte Banks do? This is what on-time and on-target looks like and that isn’t easy.
1Q - 3:28 - 3-3-NYG 23 - D.Prescott pass short middle to B.Cooks to NYG 7 for 16 yards
A few snaps later, Dak is feeling it. Motion Cooks down so Ferguson can help him get free against 28-Cor’Dale Flott and Prescott again rips one right on his hands as Flott dives to get a piece. Hits the man on the run and in stride and you cannot play the quick game better than that. Again, this is an A+ throw and he is hitting them over and over early in this game.
1Q - 2:13 - 2-15-NYG 15 - D.Prescott pass short left to R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
All these plays have one thing in common. They are quick. They clearly do not want their rookies to have to protect for a full drop and scan. They are building the boat while at sea, so precision and timing is required. Here, after a Guyton hold, they try on 2nd down to get a screen to Dowdle going. As you know, this one is not run perfectly as Ferguson might get away with a penalty and Beebe misses his guy. But Dowdle looks good in space and gets it in to end the drive properly. Let’s see more of that.
2Q - 9:59 - 4-1-DAL 39 - H.Luepke left end to DAL 45 for 6 yards (K.Thibodeaux).
This is a key play, of course. The Cowboys decide to go for it from inside their own 40. They don’t like the QB sneak because Dexter Lawrence and I get it. So, here comes the very useful Luepke again to try to find a yard and to his credit, he has to make Kayvon Thibodeaux miss to keep the drive alive. I don’t know how much Luepke can ultimately do, but I am so impressed with what he has shown. Not saying he is your Kyle Juszczyk, but, I wonder how much you can hand him. He is really a nice player.
And that play is vital because of the next one…
2Q - 9:25 - 1-10-DAL 45 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
From the Morning After piece:
Big time throw! If you want to see the other big-time throw, it is right before half-time on a play that didn’t count due to another penalty, but, this was impressive as heck, too:
I mean, for him to respond to the Baltimore game with this one is most encouraging. I’m not sure I can explain the accuracy differences, but if he is working on anything mechanically, it was a marked improvement and it is where he needs to live for this thing to work.
Rico Dowdle is RB1 and it isn’t very close.
Meanwhile, we continue to see the differences between Rico Dowdle and everyone else the Cowboys try in the backfield. I am not here to say that he is an excellent NFL RB, but in this room, he is the closest they have. Here is a montage of his successful work on Thursday, and again, it isn’t even close between him and everyone else:
He hits it hard and with conviction. He has a fine burst and does not 2nd guess himself. Grab the ball and get north and I would continue to center much of it on him. His pass blocking is “good enough” and the rest of it is excellent. I like what he has shown. Again, they need to run the ball and I would like it to mostly be him.
Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe school of hard knocks.
We will end it here. We cannot lose sight of a fact of life in the NFL: having one rookie starter is very difficult for contenders. Having two rookie starters on your OL is crazy. I imagine it is rarely tried because it is one of the hardest things for a team that is trying to win to ever pull off.
The Cowboys not only tried it, but they tried it without injury influencing the decisions. This was their actual plan.
Now, the dividends could be special. When these guys reach year 3 and they are both destroying things, the Cowboys could be laughing. But for now, they clearly are using training wheels because they want to work around it. They are playing well – for rookies – and we cannot lose sight of that. There has been no point at which I ever thought they needed to be taken out. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t concessions being made to help them along.
We made cut-ups of both against the Giants. The first one is Guyton. I put all of his key plays in here – good and bad. And I would say there is plenty of both.
As you can see, Thibodeaux was giving him fits. Those inside moves, especially. I loved the battle and the determination, but we can see he has a ways to go on technique and mastering the craft.
Of the 55 tackles in the NFL who have played 50% of the snaps so far, he is graded 49th by PFF. His pass protection and his run blocking need work, and by now, it appears his technique and confidence are down a bit from the preseason. This is to be expected. Again, he is very good, and the ceiling is very high, but he faces a different beast every week, and this is about as tough a spot as you can put a guy who was a right tackle for Oklahoma last year and is now a left tackle in the NFL.
So, my summary on Guyton is that we should be pleased, but if you want to know why the offense is not running smoothly, it is because they are trying to protect him and Beebe.
Now, to Beebe’s cut-up. We did not circle him because I bet you can find the center every snap on your own.
For Beebe, they were trying to protect him against Lawrence this week, and again, given the circumstances, he held up pretty well. He is very strong, and like Guyton, play balance will always be the work. When they get too top-heavy, they are easy to knock off their balance, and that gets you beat or on the ground. This was his biggest test, but he survived, and they both will improve.
Of the 30 full-time centers who exceed the 50% snap threshold so far, he is 24th in the NFL on the PFF scale. And, in terms of pass blocking, he is 7th best. The run blocking is 28th and where he struggles for now.
But again, I know it strips the offense down a bit to do this, but I am completely undaunted in my belief in both of them.
In closing, some very good stuff on Thursday to take to Pittsburgh. Now, the offense needs to do more heavy lifting as the defense is losing pieces and not playing great. So, the coaches will need to continue to slide the balances in that direction.
Let’s see how they handle Pittsburgh.