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Decoding McCarthy - Down Goes Prescott
The offense moves ahead without its QB and the recipe is different now from last time.
Bob Sturm
Nov 05, 2024
Our Decoding objectives today:
The Offensive Overview moving forward without Dak
Given that Dak Prescott will be out for several weeks with a hamstring injury, this offensive examination will feel a little different. I tend to roll my eyes at how optimistic the Cowboys' language is about players returning, only to find out that DaRon Bland and Micah Parsons still haven’t come back. It gives me flashbacks to the old days when Tony Romo would break his collarbone on Thanksgiving Day, and Jerry Jones would go on his unnecessary radio show to say Romo could return for the Super Bowl.
I have no idea how long Prescott will be out, but I’m planning on it being “a while,” which is probably a death blow to the Cowboys’ 2024 season.
While it's true he was playing some very poor football by his standards, his body of work shows a considerable gap between what he can do, both physically and mentally, and what those behind him on the depth chart cannot.
However, we are reminded that Cooper Rush helped this Cowboys team play winning football at the start of 2022, and we wonder if it can be done again in these dire days for Cowboys football. Mike McCarthy, obviously, had an attacking defense to rely on, knowing that if Rush avoided turnovers (which he did until the final game), the defense could do the rest by getting sacks and takeaways.
The Dan Quinn defense was able to get 22 sacks in those five starts for Rush and won the turnover battle in three of the four wins. The other win was a six-sack barrage on Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
The Cowboys then ran the ball masterfully in those games, with 642 yards in five games at 4.4 yards per carry. They controlled the clock as best they could, and there were times when Rush had to make throws—and he delivered. More than anything, it was the finest example of Mike McCarthy’s complementary football.
Protect the QB, play simple football, run the rock, and ask your defense to be dominant.
I’m not sure that exists here anymore.
Fast forward to 2024, and we see a team near the bottom of the league in running the ball, stopping the run, getting to the QB, and generating takeaways, and we have our doubts about whether there's a winning formula in there. Still, I figured that was a solid place to start with today’s piece. If the defense can create chaos in this next month, it would be rather unexpected. Perhaps getting Parsons back is a good place to begin, but this is not the 2022 Dallas Cowboys defense anymore.
Mistakes Aplenty in Atlanta
Honestly, there were some very nice things that turned up in Atlanta for the offense. As we pointed out yesterday, we saw a team that could blow by the normal yardage numbers – the Cowboys and the entire NFL have averaged about 330 yards per game this season – by nearly 50 yards. 378 yards is a very healthy day of offense as you can see below. 23 first downs is excellent, too. They are moving the chains, sustaining drives, and holding the ball well.
A fair amount of that success is due to a running game that was working well. A 57% success rate on running plays is something we don’t see very often anymore. It’s great to see— even against a weaker defense—that Dallas is running the ball effectively, and we’ll spend some time discussing that in a bit.
However, the drive chart shows that, despite moving down the field well, they rarely converted those drives into points. You simply have to score more than 21 points when you generate nearly 400 yards of offense and win the turnover battle.
Instead, this game in Atlanta will be known as a comedy of errors that make this team look unserious and poorly coached. I definitely defend Mike McCarthy more than most in my profession as I think his body of work speaks for itself pretty loudly, but when we are living in the last days we should hope to avoid games like Sunday where there are too many turnovers and too many situations where the team looks unprepared:
3rd and 4th downs sunk the ship
In fact, we could argue the last three games are about third and fourth downs where Dallas has dropped like a rock in the 3rd down efficiency standings.
Here is the last month sorted by 3rd down conversion percentage:
So Dallas is 31st in third downs which lead them to fourth down where they are equally awful and probably dead last there, too.
Again, teams don’t believe anyone but CeeDee Lamb can beat them against tight man coverage and that allows them to bring pressure and the offensive line is not good enough to give the team time to find alternatives. This is also when Brandin Cooks has been down and now the team is figuring out early down success, but these critical moments in games when you either convert or give up the ball, a normally excellent 3rd down QB and scheme are unable to solve this one.
And yes, over the last three years, Dallas was amongst the very best in the league on 3rd and fourth downs. They were efficient and deadly. 2024? It has all gone away quickly and collapsed.
So, let’s look at those critical moment from Sunday here:
1Q - 4:03 - 3-9-DAL 17 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 13 for -4 yards (G.Jarrett).
This is the first big third down of the game. 3rd and 9 and the Cowboys have a consistent issue in these spots. Can you get someone open before the pocket collapses. They motion Lamb to try to confuse coverage, but he is always going to be double teamed inside (and he is here). Tolbert is vertical covered, Ferguson is not out of his route, and Turpin looks available as he runs down the line of scrimmage, but he is short enough that there is no way Dak can even see him until he breaks out the left side and by then, three guys have met at the QB for the sack. This is why you have to stay out of 3rd and long unless you love your pass protection. Atlanta has a poor pass rush and only sent four rushers, but three met at the QB before anything downfield is available. 3rd and long is not for the mediocre offenses.
The very next drive, Dallas is on the move. Now, they are over midfield with a 3rd and 1. This should be a great opportunity to call a shot play or a simple run to get the one yard.
2Q - 12:06 - 3-1-ATL 44 - R.Dowdle left guard to ATL 44 for no gain
11 personnel and this is an easy inside zone where Tyler Guyton is beaten so quickly by 97-Grady Jarrett that Rico tries to cut back and Jarrett gets the cutback, too. I know people watching hoped Rico could do more, but your backside tackle has one job there and Guyton has to be better than that. Dak makes the right read giving the ball, but I guess if you knew Guyton was going to lose that quickly, maybe you just keep it?
But, the next play is still just 4th and 1.
2Q - 11:26 - 4-1-ATL 44 - C.Lamb right end to ATL 47 for -3 yards (K.Elliss).
There’s a lot to unpack here, starting with the fact that the play call felt somewhat telegraphed to me. The Cowboys called a timeout, and my first thought was that they didn’t trust the point of attack based on the previous play. Their go-to trick in this situation is the Lamb jet sweep. I love the jet sweep, but what I don’t love is that CeeDee Lamb is still the primary option for it. If you’re going to ask him to do everything, we really need to find someone else to take on this role. Otherwise, it reduces the element of surprise, especially since there’s only one CeeDee on the roster. If he’s out wide and you run this motion, the entire defense is put in a bind. But if he’s the only threat, they can anticipate it.
And this play was anticipated quickly. Kaden Ellis jumped the play, but Lamb almost got by him. If he had, I think he would’ve picked up the yard (although that’s debatable, as the contain man handled Ferguson a bit too easily). Ellis saw it coming, went untouched (which actually isn’t uncommon for a jet sweep), and made a great play. Dallas looks bad for falling victim to it—and, as I said, the play was somewhat telegraphed—but the other team prepares, too.
I made a reel of all of Lamb’s jet sweeps this season, and you may remember they used it successfully against Cleveland three times.
As you can see, that edge is often unblocked on these and takes himself out of the play by the suddenness of jet motion. But, Ellis was prepared. Also, this was the only short-yardage situation. That means on 1st and 10, you can stun defenses with it. On 4th and 1, they are probably expecting you to ask Lamb to do everything again.
We will circle back to the fake punt below, but then at the end of the 3rd Quarter and down 21-10, Dallas missed a huge play on 3rd and 10:
3Q - 0:07 - 3-10-ATL 39 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to J.Ferguson (M.Judon).
This is the kind of moment you dream of when building your game plan with the coaches. The gravity that Lamb commands is on full display here, as the Cowboys are inside the Atlanta 40 and have the perfect play set for 3rd and 10 if Atlanta is playing zone. A quick TE screen with Terence Steele and Cooper Beebe in space against just two Falcons defenders. If completed, the 1st down is almost certain, and a touchdown wouldn’t be hard to imagine.
However, Ferguson misses his chip on Matthew Judon, and Dak is forced to deliver the pass to Ferguson any way he can. As long as Prescott gets the ball to Ferguson, this play has big potential. So yes, this was a big miss for Prescott—the ball had to get there.
Overall, Prescott played much better before he got hurt, but this miss was crucial.
Rico Dowdle appears to be a real productive RB
From yesterday’s Morning After:
Everything is shades of grey and we should not ask Tony Dorsett to move over, but Dowdle plays hard and is a good professional. I will be looking to upgrade my RB room in the offseason, but I can find a spot for Dowdle for my future. I think he is a guy worth keeping.
I have been very impressed with his ability to get good yardage with the blocking available.
A real confusing Fake Punt idea
This one might have been the moment where everyone decided to go do something else. You are down 14-10 at the half, but get the ball first coming out. Bad possession and you need to punt. But, wait…
3Q - 4-2-DAL 38 - B.Anger pass incomplete short right to C.Goodwin.
The design of this fake is troubling to me because there are no pass interference rules on fake punts. This is why most fakes are run plays. They are too easy to defend unless they just don’t have a guy paying attention.
But, in this case, Atlanta was sitting on it and probably should have had a Pick-6. Then, we find out that John Fassel talked the coach into it and the audio is interesting:
The “9 Stop” is the route, of course. Run down and just stop past the sticks and the defender will be dropped off in punt coverage and you will have an easy throw and catch.
It certainly looks awful when it isn’t there. Also, the recommendation language seems to be an indicator of him saying he wasn’t going rogue on this. He did not call it, he recommended it and then the head coach trusts him and calls it.
So, bad time for it, bad spot on the field, and bad execution.
Fits the narrative of the season right now.
Lastly, the Cowboys have traded for Jonathan Mingo as I write this report.
They paid a 4th and a 7th for Mingo, which feels like a lot. At the same time, this is definitely a “scouting trade,” where you have the chance to get someone you really liked in the 2023 draft and inherit his rookie contract through 2026. His franchise has since changed everything since the 2023 draft, and the new GM doesn’t value him the way the old one did.
I did not study him for the Sturm 60 in 2023, so I don’t have my own report. Here is Dane Brugler’s:
Nobody likes this trade right now because Jerry Jones has killed the credibility of his moves in the wake of Trey Lance. But, I will tell you that I will study Mingo shortly and get back with you with my own takes. I am just ready for that at the moment.
The offense moves ahead without its QB and the recipe is different now from last time.
Bob Sturm
Nov 05, 2024
Our Decoding objectives today:
- The Offensive Overview moving forward without Dak
- Mistakes Aplenty in Atlanta
- 3rd and 4th downs sunk the ship
- Rico Dowdle appears to be a real productive RB
- A real confusing Fake Punt idea.
The Offensive Overview moving forward without Dak
Given that Dak Prescott will be out for several weeks with a hamstring injury, this offensive examination will feel a little different. I tend to roll my eyes at how optimistic the Cowboys' language is about players returning, only to find out that DaRon Bland and Micah Parsons still haven’t come back. It gives me flashbacks to the old days when Tony Romo would break his collarbone on Thanksgiving Day, and Jerry Jones would go on his unnecessary radio show to say Romo could return for the Super Bowl.
I have no idea how long Prescott will be out, but I’m planning on it being “a while,” which is probably a death blow to the Cowboys’ 2024 season.
While it's true he was playing some very poor football by his standards, his body of work shows a considerable gap between what he can do, both physically and mentally, and what those behind him on the depth chart cannot.
However, we are reminded that Cooper Rush helped this Cowboys team play winning football at the start of 2022, and we wonder if it can be done again in these dire days for Cowboys football. Mike McCarthy, obviously, had an attacking defense to rely on, knowing that if Rush avoided turnovers (which he did until the final game), the defense could do the rest by getting sacks and takeaways.
The Dan Quinn defense was able to get 22 sacks in those five starts for Rush and won the turnover battle in three of the four wins. The other win was a six-sack barrage on Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
The Cowboys then ran the ball masterfully in those games, with 642 yards in five games at 4.4 yards per carry. They controlled the clock as best they could, and there were times when Rush had to make throws—and he delivered. More than anything, it was the finest example of Mike McCarthy’s complementary football.
Protect the QB, play simple football, run the rock, and ask your defense to be dominant.
I’m not sure that exists here anymore.
Fast forward to 2024, and we see a team near the bottom of the league in running the ball, stopping the run, getting to the QB, and generating takeaways, and we have our doubts about whether there's a winning formula in there. Still, I figured that was a solid place to start with today’s piece. If the defense can create chaos in this next month, it would be rather unexpected. Perhaps getting Parsons back is a good place to begin, but this is not the 2022 Dallas Cowboys defense anymore.
Mistakes Aplenty in Atlanta
Honestly, there were some very nice things that turned up in Atlanta for the offense. As we pointed out yesterday, we saw a team that could blow by the normal yardage numbers – the Cowboys and the entire NFL have averaged about 330 yards per game this season – by nearly 50 yards. 378 yards is a very healthy day of offense as you can see below. 23 first downs is excellent, too. They are moving the chains, sustaining drives, and holding the ball well.
A fair amount of that success is due to a running game that was working well. A 57% success rate on running plays is something we don’t see very often anymore. It’s great to see— even against a weaker defense—that Dallas is running the ball effectively, and we’ll spend some time discussing that in a bit.
However, the drive chart shows that, despite moving down the field well, they rarely converted those drives into points. You simply have to score more than 21 points when you generate nearly 400 yards of offense and win the turnover battle.
Instead, this game in Atlanta will be known as a comedy of errors that make this team look unserious and poorly coached. I definitely defend Mike McCarthy more than most in my profession as I think his body of work speaks for itself pretty loudly, but when we are living in the last days we should hope to avoid games like Sunday where there are too many turnovers and too many situations where the team looks unprepared:
- 10 men on the field on defense on a key 3rd down early in the game.
- 12 men in the huddle on offense that negates a 4th and 1 opportunity.
- Fake punt where choice was poor and play call was worse.
- 4th and 1 where choice was good and play call was telegraphed.
3rd and 4th downs sunk the ship
In fact, we could argue the last three games are about third and fourth downs where Dallas has dropped like a rock in the 3rd down efficiency standings.
Here is the last month sorted by 3rd down conversion percentage:
So Dallas is 31st in third downs which lead them to fourth down where they are equally awful and probably dead last there, too.
Again, teams don’t believe anyone but CeeDee Lamb can beat them against tight man coverage and that allows them to bring pressure and the offensive line is not good enough to give the team time to find alternatives. This is also when Brandin Cooks has been down and now the team is figuring out early down success, but these critical moments in games when you either convert or give up the ball, a normally excellent 3rd down QB and scheme are unable to solve this one.
And yes, over the last three years, Dallas was amongst the very best in the league on 3rd and fourth downs. They were efficient and deadly. 2024? It has all gone away quickly and collapsed.
So, let’s look at those critical moment from Sunday here:
1Q - 4:03 - 3-9-DAL 17 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 13 for -4 yards (G.Jarrett).
This is the first big third down of the game. 3rd and 9 and the Cowboys have a consistent issue in these spots. Can you get someone open before the pocket collapses. They motion Lamb to try to confuse coverage, but he is always going to be double teamed inside (and he is here). Tolbert is vertical covered, Ferguson is not out of his route, and Turpin looks available as he runs down the line of scrimmage, but he is short enough that there is no way Dak can even see him until he breaks out the left side and by then, three guys have met at the QB for the sack. This is why you have to stay out of 3rd and long unless you love your pass protection. Atlanta has a poor pass rush and only sent four rushers, but three met at the QB before anything downfield is available. 3rd and long is not for the mediocre offenses.
The very next drive, Dallas is on the move. Now, they are over midfield with a 3rd and 1. This should be a great opportunity to call a shot play or a simple run to get the one yard.
2Q - 12:06 - 3-1-ATL 44 - R.Dowdle left guard to ATL 44 for no gain
11 personnel and this is an easy inside zone where Tyler Guyton is beaten so quickly by 97-Grady Jarrett that Rico tries to cut back and Jarrett gets the cutback, too. I know people watching hoped Rico could do more, but your backside tackle has one job there and Guyton has to be better than that. Dak makes the right read giving the ball, but I guess if you knew Guyton was going to lose that quickly, maybe you just keep it?
But, the next play is still just 4th and 1.
2Q - 11:26 - 4-1-ATL 44 - C.Lamb right end to ATL 47 for -3 yards (K.Elliss).
There’s a lot to unpack here, starting with the fact that the play call felt somewhat telegraphed to me. The Cowboys called a timeout, and my first thought was that they didn’t trust the point of attack based on the previous play. Their go-to trick in this situation is the Lamb jet sweep. I love the jet sweep, but what I don’t love is that CeeDee Lamb is still the primary option for it. If you’re going to ask him to do everything, we really need to find someone else to take on this role. Otherwise, it reduces the element of surprise, especially since there’s only one CeeDee on the roster. If he’s out wide and you run this motion, the entire defense is put in a bind. But if he’s the only threat, they can anticipate it.
And this play was anticipated quickly. Kaden Ellis jumped the play, but Lamb almost got by him. If he had, I think he would’ve picked up the yard (although that’s debatable, as the contain man handled Ferguson a bit too easily). Ellis saw it coming, went untouched (which actually isn’t uncommon for a jet sweep), and made a great play. Dallas looks bad for falling victim to it—and, as I said, the play was somewhat telegraphed—but the other team prepares, too.
I made a reel of all of Lamb’s jet sweeps this season, and you may remember they used it successfully against Cleveland three times.
As you can see, that edge is often unblocked on these and takes himself out of the play by the suddenness of jet motion. But, Ellis was prepared. Also, this was the only short-yardage situation. That means on 1st and 10, you can stun defenses with it. On 4th and 1, they are probably expecting you to ask Lamb to do everything again.
We will circle back to the fake punt below, but then at the end of the 3rd Quarter and down 21-10, Dallas missed a huge play on 3rd and 10:
3Q - 0:07 - 3-10-ATL 39 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to J.Ferguson (M.Judon).
This is the kind of moment you dream of when building your game plan with the coaches. The gravity that Lamb commands is on full display here, as the Cowboys are inside the Atlanta 40 and have the perfect play set for 3rd and 10 if Atlanta is playing zone. A quick TE screen with Terence Steele and Cooper Beebe in space against just two Falcons defenders. If completed, the 1st down is almost certain, and a touchdown wouldn’t be hard to imagine.
However, Ferguson misses his chip on Matthew Judon, and Dak is forced to deliver the pass to Ferguson any way he can. As long as Prescott gets the ball to Ferguson, this play has big potential. So yes, this was a big miss for Prescott—the ball had to get there.
Overall, Prescott played much better before he got hurt, but this miss was crucial.
Rico Dowdle appears to be a real productive RB
From yesterday’s Morning After:
I made a reel to get a good look at Dowdle’s day for anyone who isn’t sure about whether he is the best RB on the roster by a good stretch:
Everything is shades of grey and we should not ask Tony Dorsett to move over, but Dowdle plays hard and is a good professional. I will be looking to upgrade my RB room in the offseason, but I can find a spot for Dowdle for my future. I think he is a guy worth keeping.
I have been very impressed with his ability to get good yardage with the blocking available.
A real confusing Fake Punt idea
This one might have been the moment where everyone decided to go do something else. You are down 14-10 at the half, but get the ball first coming out. Bad possession and you need to punt. But, wait…
3Q - 4-2-DAL 38 - B.Anger pass incomplete short right to C.Goodwin.
The design of this fake is troubling to me because there are no pass interference rules on fake punts. This is why most fakes are run plays. They are too easy to defend unless they just don’t have a guy paying attention.
But, in this case, Atlanta was sitting on it and probably should have had a Pick-6. Then, we find out that John Fassel talked the coach into it and the audio is interesting:
The “9 Stop” is the route, of course. Run down and just stop past the sticks and the defender will be dropped off in punt coverage and you will have an easy throw and catch.
It certainly looks awful when it isn’t there. Also, the recommendation language seems to be an indicator of him saying he wasn’t going rogue on this. He did not call it, he recommended it and then the head coach trusts him and calls it.
So, bad time for it, bad spot on the field, and bad execution.
Fits the narrative of the season right now.
Lastly, the Cowboys have traded for Jonathan Mingo as I write this report.
They paid a 4th and a 7th for Mingo, which feels like a lot. At the same time, this is definitely a “scouting trade,” where you have the chance to get someone you really liked in the 2023 draft and inherit his rookie contract through 2026. His franchise has since changed everything since the 2023 draft, and the new GM doesn’t value him the way the old one did.
I did not study him for the Sturm 60 in 2023, so I don’t have my own report. Here is Dane Brugler’s:
Nobody likes this trade right now because Jerry Jones has killed the credibility of his moves in the wake of Trey Lance. But, I will tell you that I will study Mingo shortly and get back with you with my own takes. I am just ready for that at the moment.
