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By Bob Sturm Jan 1, 2019
The Cowboys’ 2018 regular season ended with a situation that received plenty of discussion from the media and fanbase. Should the Cowboys play any starters in a game where the rewards are minimal and the risks involve losing a crucial piece or two before the playoffs?
Many media folks loudly suggested that it was utter idiocy to play any of the top players, but because NFL rosters are so small, a team could only reasonably afford to sit five or six starters on either side of the ball. This idea that a team can take their full complement of starters out of the lineup and still field a team is college football-based fiction, borne from a world in which you might have an actual three-deep roster and a sideline filled with able-bodied players. The NFL allows 53 on the full roster and 46 on game day. The Cowboys could sit some regulars, but not all of them.
They wisely decided to sit the players who were hurting: Zack Martin, Tyron Smith, Tyrone Crawford, and Ezekiel Elliott. Even if Elliott was healthy, he plays a position with so many dangerous elements to each play that it made sense to conserve his energies.
Other than that, though, the Cowboys put their full allotment out on the field and the Cooper Rush game never occurred. This served as a nervous afternoon for most observers — as the starting QB took the field with an offensive line that features a backup at every single spot but right tackle — but not only did they survive the exercise, they played one of their best offensive games of the season.
Here are the 13 offensive players who received at least 20 snaps on Sunday in New Jersey. See how many your friends can name over dinner:
It really does look like a Preseason Week 3 roster, one compiled for a dress rehearsal against a Giants defense that had nothing on the line themselves. That being said, New York still has elite players dead-set on limiting the Dallas offensive attack.
The results were about what you might expect. For instance, Olivier Vernon got to Dak Prescott nine times. Nine! He finished the game with three sacks and six other QB hits and other impressive plays we can’t classify that way— like the final touchdown to Cole Beasley where Vernon is on top of Prescott almost from the snap. Cam Fleming is a reasonable reserve tackle but we are quickly seeing the difference between a starter and a reserve. Vernon dominated Fleming all day long and as the fourth quarter drew to a close, things did not get any better. In fact, Vernon was starting to wreck most plays and the Giants decided to complement his contributions with a blitz that the Cowboys’ second-string offensive line could not deal with. Because of this, the Dallas success rate versus the blitz was 25% — easily their lowest of the season in games where they were blitzed at least five times. They were overmatched up front.
What resulted was the sort of fun, hypothetical exercise that a coaching staff might actually attempt to replicate in a training camp practice (although they would remove the threat of injury). What if the Dallas passing game was not allowed Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, or Zack Martin and they still had to try to win a game on the road where the defense isn’t getting any stops? What if the only way you could win this game is if Dak Prescott was forced to throw the ball into secondaries expecting him to do so, and he had to figure out a solution? It is not something you would want to do very often, considering the way this team is built and how they have invested and allocated their resources. But on this day in New York against a team that doesn’t like him, could the young QB throw some caution to the wind and see if taking more chances than usual suits him and his receivers?
The answer shocked many and caused people to then suggest the “war game” was invalid because it was against an opponent with nothing to play for in a game that didn’t really matter. But that was the point, right? If there is no danger in the outcome of the game, a team can go in two separate paths. Either protect every asset by not letting them play or allow them to play but put them in uncommon situations to see how they would function.
To me, the Cowboys coaching staff — intentionally or not — used this game to help their passing game develop in a way that could pay huge dividends down the road. That might come next week or it might come next year, but I cannot imagine the possible effects of confidence and self-belief from a performance like this. The film study below might reveal to any observer that even with very little pass protection or running game, the passing attack was extremely impressive. It was not perfect by any stretch, but they looked for opportunities to attack and then did so. Winning the game was a bonus, for sure, but that wasn’t where the value was found. The value was gained by putting players in situations your philosophy doesn’t always allow and then seeing them seize the day.
WEEKLY DATA BOX – AT NEW YORK
Where do you start? The yardage was huge, the third downs and red zone conversions were far above the threshold of success, the yards per attempt were successful and the explosive plays (throws of 20 yards or more) were the most we have seen through the air (five) of any game this season. These numbers also don’t account for how good the Cowboys were on fourth down (2 for 2) and on the two-point conversion.
If the question was about whether Dak Prescott could air the ball out and flourish without help from All-Pro talent around him, I would say we have an example of him doing exactly that. Can the Cowboys do that every week? Let’s not get crazy. They aren’t built that way from a personnel standpoint and they certainly don’t have a coaching staff or front office that wants to live that way. But can they do so situationally? I feel like this has to tell us something.
DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
It was as if, for one game, Prescott took off all of his normal risk-averse decision-making triggers and just said to himself (or perhaps his coaches said to him), if I see a throw, I am going to try to make it. Forget trying to avoid mistakes; just hunt for big plays. As we’ve said here many times before, the more you hunt big plays, the more mistakes will happen for any QB. Interceptions go up and you get beat by overlying on that explosiveness (see Buccaneers, Tampa Bay). But this is an uncommon throw chart, and a welcome change from Prescott’s status quo.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
For the most part, the Cowboys couldn’t run the ball on Sunday, and we understand why. If you don’t have your talent on the field, you are going to have a hard time physically overwhelming anyone. So the Cowboys quickly moved Prescott into Shotgun with 11 personnel and told him to go hunt some big plays. We are not sure if they had another plan on Sunday if their original blueprint didn’t work, but they had five touchdown drives, another missed field goal from a makeable range, and only one giveaway, a fumble from Amari Cooper.
It was as strong a QB performance as the Cowboys have produced in some time. Again, not perfect, but darn strong.
FILM STUDY:
I want to go through these big plays and see what we can learn. Sunday’s game was a really impressive showcase that we should file away when we discuss what this QB and this offense are and are not.
2Q – 8:17 – 3rd and 12
Here is the biggest play of Blake Jarwin’s career. The Giants play Tampa-2 against a third and long, and the idea here is to use two players to conflict the middle defender. Whichever way he leans tells you to throw it to the other guy. This is certainly a play on which Dak has been reluctant to throw (deep middle) and if he can unlock this part of the field, you will see massive steps forward in Year 4. You can see the safeties far more worried about Cooper (left slot) than Jarwin. Before Sunday, we talked about how not having a seam tight end was a real concern. But do the Cowboys actually have one in Jarwin? Touchdown.
2Q – 1:55 – 3rd and 9
This is a similar concept — red zone and third and long — but a far more difficult read/throw and even more advanced than the last play which was an either/or. Again, the Cowboys attack the middle defender in a Tampa-2 look where the deep middle is available for a brave, well-timed throw. I will admit I didn’t think Prescott had this throw in him. He used Schultz to hold the defender under and then spring Jarwin to the post, and the throw is magnificent. Just look at him hit that back throw and fire it in there. This one is great.
3Q – 5:10 – 3rd and 3
The Cowboys have been successful in making high-percentage throws. Prescott is 32-16 as a starter and therefore, they seem to be effective with a QB that doesn’t throw balls into traffic. This is not that. This is a third down where nothing seems open and protection is breaking down fast from both left tackle and left guard. So Prescott is flushed to the right and decides to try an against-the-grain, across-the-body throw to Jarwin in traffic. When you are hot you are hot, evidently, because not only does the throw connect, but Jarwin runs through some “tackling” attempts and finds his way to the end zone for his third touchdown of a ridiculous day. Great job by Jarwin of finding open space and making himself available. He seems to be having the breakout season that Rico Gathers had promised us.
3Q – 0:55 – 1st and 10
It’s probably time to demonstrate Olivier Vernon’s big day against Cam Fleming. Here is an example of a QB having no chance to “get the ball out” because all of his routes are medium in length and all of the receivers are covered with their back to the QB when he is getting hit. Fleming needed help often and when he didn’t get it, Vernon was in the backfield before Prescott could complete his drop.
Here’s the end-zone view, and as you can see, Connor Williams had no chance inside against fellow rookie BJ Hill. Wow, that was some poor protection.
4th – 10:32 – 1st and 10
Let’s move to the fourth quarter, where the game was out of control. The Giants blitzed plenty and destroyed many plays, but on this occasion, it is a quick read on a flat/slant combo where the Giants let Gallup loose on an easy throw and catch and then saw him navigate for 24 yards. Prescott made a decisive read that resulted in a nice, big play to start a drive.
4Q – 9:39 – 3rd and 10
If it wasn’t for the Beasley touchdown, we might nominate this as the best play of Prescott’s day (although there are more than a few to choose from). On 3rd and 10, it is time to make a play after nobody is initially available. The left side of the line breaks down again, he rolls to his right, and Allen Hurns opens up as he improvises to the corner. The throw on the run is where it needs to be and the Cowboys convert another play, one which almost ends up in the end zone. Hurns hasn’t done much this year, but this shows his usefulness.
Let’s take one more look from the eye in the sky to see the second phase of this play.
4Q – 2:25 – 2nd and 10
This throw to start the final drive is, again, not what we often see from Prescott. If he makes this throw — or even attempts it — a few times a week, he could quickly rise from being an average starting quarterback to a good one. You have to make the defense defend the whole field. That opens up opportunities. But if you are reluctant to throw deep between the numbers, you are making their job easier. This is real progress, but it will come with the occasional sailed throw that will get picked off. In other words, to be a better QB, you have to be willing to perhaps throw twice as many interceptions.
Now, that final sequence that led to the win…
4Q – 1:34 – 1st and 10
Here is the miss to Cooper. This should be a touchdown and Cooper puts an incredible double move on Janoris Jenkins, except he stumbles a bit on his break. Does that throw him off the throw, or is the throw just independently bad? I think the throw missed on its own and the Cowboys were lucky to get another chance to make it right. This should have turned into six points.
4Q – 1:24 – 3rd and 10
On 3rd and 10, the Giants are tired of Dak making a play, so they bring the house and destroy the play as Prescott has no time whatsoever.
4Q – 1:19 – 4th and 15
For this, allow me to quote yesterday’s piece:
There is so much to look at here. The examination starts with the Cowboys taking a false start on 4th and 10 as Cam Fleming tried to get a jump on blocking Olivier Vernon. Vernon had been unstoppable the entire game and had 2.5 sacks already to go along with an absurd six hits on Dak Prescott. In some circles, it is now fashionable to blame most sacks on the QB, but hopefully, the absurdity of that has not infected most level-headed observers because in most cases, sacks happen because a blocker simply cannot deal with the guy across from him. We have seen Tyron Smith struggle with Vernon, who has quite a resume and the paycheck to verify his excellence. Cam Fleming is certainly an upgrade from Chaz Green but he is certainly no Tyron Smith.
Walk the Cowboys back five yards and on the 4th and 15 snap, it becomes clear why Fleming needed the head start on 4th and 10. Vernon hits the gas at the snap and is almost completely untouched on his way to blindside Prescott. To Prescott’s extreme credit, he was well aware that Fleming couldn’t block all day (his bruises provide all the confirmation he needed) and he seemed to fully anticipate another issue, so he channeled his best Tony Romo impression, spinning back against the grain to wiggle out of danger by heading right into the direction from whence it came.
Now, Prescott is running to his left in open space (as Vernon clearly lost his containment) and has bought himself a little time to try to pick out one of his four vertical targets, who are all in the vicinity of the Giants end zone. He picks out Cole Beasley. Beasley seldom gets his moments of verticality, so when he had a chance to improvise a bit to lose former Cowboys corner B.W. Webb, he made no mistake. The throw was from roughly the 37-yard line and was made on the run. In real time, it definitely looked like Prescott led Beasley too far. But the slot receiver laid out and brought the ball in at the back of the end-zone in miraculous fashion in a way that made us initially think he had made a wonderful catch that simply wouldn’t count.
Two-point conversion
Again, from yesterday: the Cowboys had a two-point conversion ready that involved a jet-sweep fake to Tavon Austin, taking defenders’ eyes left when the play would roll Dak out to the right and give him some options. Most of the traffic went with Rod Smith shallow and Amari Cooper in the right corner, but Prescott bought time, allowing Michael Gallup to run along the end line towards Cooper. Finally, Prescott threaded a throw in nicely to convert the two-point conversion.
From here, you again see Prescott saying he can make a throw against the grain and across the body. You can see the degree to which he’s feeling it by his celebration.
Again, we have no idea what this means — if anything — to the Cowboys as they head into the wildcard game against Seattle. We also don’t know what this indicates about the next steps in Prescott’s career.
But, doggone, on this day, he was pretty special.