- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 120,271
By Bob Sturm
Aug 12, 2022
(Every week until the regular season, this series will put the spotlight on a key but not fully established Cowboys player who is still on his way to his finished form. It will try to examine where his journey has gone so far, where 2022 might take him and beyond. The first three players featured were TE Dalton Schultz, CB Trevon Diggs and Tony Pollard.)
Everyone knows by now that this has always been a very nurturing Dak Prescott space. Over the years, you could find countless pieces of support and explanations on how the Cowboys have a very good QB and that the public has gone way too far with the constant belly-aching about every detail of his game. How he has earned his standing in the league and his contract that demonstrates it. But, the public demands further Super Bowls from this franchise — rightfully so — and therefore consistently rips the starting QB to shreds every time the Cowboys fall short versus an opponent in a significant moment. This was true well before Prescott lived here and will probably be true well past his exit if he doesn’t kill the demons and win it all sometime himself.
It seems to someone like me who has covered this team for a few decades now that the last group of QB1 defenders — those who explained how Tony Romo was never to blame for any franchise shortfalls — turned on the new QB1 (Prescott) to protect his predecessor’s legacy. If Romo was going to be blamed too much, in their estimation, we are going to make sure that the new guy gets it even worse.
I know the history since Troy Aikman all too well and I know this is a dangerous column to write for all of these reasons. Still, I’ve had it on my mind for months so let’s get it on (digital) paper today.
It is time for Prescott to take the next big step. There aren’t many steps left for him to take, but he has a few more up to the very top. Sands are going through the hourglass as we speak. It is time. Right now. In 2022.
Did you know Prescott just turned 29? You may think of him as the new guy, but in a league where the average career length is roughly less than 3 1/2 years, Prescott is double that. His money is guaranteed for a significant time longer where even if the Cowboys wanted to walk away from him, it is certainly another 30 months before they could even consider it. He is that secured.
He has played his tail off. He has left body parts on the field. He has been a credit to all who have raised him and brought him to this point of his life. He seems a better human than a player at times, and that is meant as a compliment. There are so many ways life can destroy a man who can have nearly anything he wants, and this man appears to handle his personal life with some wisdom (not always a given in this day and age).
His personality has probably caused some of us to defend him more to the national press. The job of a Cowboys QB generally makes one a piñata to those who love to see this franchise twist in the wind — we know there are many. Unfair treatment should be met with some defense mechanisms and I have the time to offer them. Today’s is not for that.
Today I explain my stance for 2022 for Prescott and look back at 2021 with the proper tone — because last year very well could have been the year. There are a few reasons why it wasn’t the year for this franchise to break those chains of mediocrity.
And QB play was absolutely one of them.
Where we have been
This is where there is generally a disconnect in the conversation with loyalists. Because the facts are he set a franchise season-high record with 37 touchdown passes. He had a career-high in completion percentage and won 12 games while coming off a major injury and dealing with another one all season.
How is that not a completely successful QB campaign?
So much of 2021 felt like empty calories. The other day on the NFL Network, Michael Gallup was a guest. The host pointed out Dallas was the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 1 yardage offense and then asked: How do they get better than No. 1?
Gallup replied, “Being at No. 1 last year was great, but that was last year. But, can you do it again? Be better than No. 1.”
I don’t want to be disrespectful to anyone who was part of the No. 1 offense and I also concede that statistically, you cannot possibly look at the production last year as something that needs improvement, so I will not make that case.
530 points and 407 yards per game were the best in football.
But it sure seemed that the Cowboys dealt with offensive problems much of the season. Not all of it. Early in the year when they started with a valiant performance at Tampa Bay and a win at Los Angeles against the Chargers it was clearly a positive start. Then, they were carving up the Eagles, Panthers and Giants in that long homestand. They went to New England with Prescott playing unreal football and won followed by going to Minnesota without Prescott and won again to improve to 6-1 in what was the start of something seemingly special.
Of course, New England was when the calf injury surfaced and we have no real idea how that affected things from that point. Prescott missed a game and returned with extra amounts of caution, so we must assume that between the broken leg and the damaged calf, he was compromised and the offense started sputtering.
Also, the league started adjusting how it played the Cowboys. The blitzing stopped and the man coverage slowed dramatically. Dallas went from the most blitzed team from Weeks 1 through 8 to the 22nd most blitzed team down the stretch. They also saw as much Cover 2 and Cover 3 looks as anyone. Teams called off the pressure up front and packed the secondary with more defenders to limit the damage Dallas could do. And it worked. Dallas went from one of the most explosive offenses in the league to just another offense.
But, wait, it gets worse.
The last two months of the season were propped up with a game against the very silly Atlanta Falcons, two games against Washington, one more with the Giants, one with the Saints who had no QB, and one with the Eagles who played their junior varsity team against the Cowboys who played everyone. Somehow, Dallas seemed focused on eating as many empty calories as possible in pursuit of feel-good milestones for players, all the while never actually fixing the issues that would ultimately be their undoing.
Because if the Cardinals game didn’t warn us enough, the NFC West was not bringing anything soft and easy to the wild-card round as the 49ers came calling. I remember the week of in this space trying to discuss that when it comes to playing zone defense and getting pressure without blitzing, the 49ers are all of the things that give the Cowboys offense big issues. This one might not be pretty. It was in that game when everything — the running game, pass protection, big plays, third downs, the yards per play — broke in a very familiar way.
What happened to the No. 1 offense? Why do we now look to Prescott to fix it?
This is where the rubber meets the road in my somewhat nuanced messaging today.
Prescott was really good and had extenuating circumstances the past few years. But, as we enter camp, I hear about pressure on the coaching staff to win now, or else. Fine. That is what we all expect and that 12 months from now, after Prescott turns 30 and Dallas hires a new offensive staff, we can do this all again. I am sure then in 2023 we will say that it is just “Year 1 in a new system and we need patience.” Then 12 months after that and he turns 31 and it is 2024, we can gather again and talk about he needs more familiarity with the new targets Dallas just drafted. Just wait. Then he will turn 32 in 2025 and it will be three new offensive linemen. And so on and so on.
This is how careers go. They go fast and if we like a special QB, we can find excuses at every turn on how it isn’t on this guy. Not our guy’s fault! Blame this WR coach or this backup guard. Surely, Chris Gronkowski is to blame (sorry)! But, if we pay our guy $40 million, it is because we feel our guy is the straw that stirs the drink. But, if it is never his fault when something goes wrong, then we are not being honest. If you pay him like the best, you better hold him to the standards of the best, too … or you are wasting your money and his prime.
Let me detail a few things about Prescott’s 2021.
He had tremendous statistics. But dig a little deeper and you can find real issues. Red zone and third-down play down the stretch was problematic. The “big games” in Kansas City, Thanksgiving, Arizona and San Francisco are certainly cherry-picked, but that is sort of how QB legacies work.
There is nothing more pleasing to report to the masses that Dak is 25-6 against the NFC East. This shuts down much chirping from Eagles and Giants fans. No doubt, winning your division every year is vital and a prerequisite to better things. Maybe Dallas can pull off consecutive division titles for the first time since it won five consecutive with Mr. Aikman from 1992 to 1996.
The problem with that stat is that if you then ask about “out of division” against the league’s other competition and concede that beyond the Eagles, this division has been a bit of a joke since Prescott was a college student, you will find that Prescott’s career W-L record goes from an amazingly impressive 53-32 overall to a far less daunting 28-26 against non-divisional foes.
Good enough to beat the horrendous QBs that this division has put out against him is hardly a legacy. It is time for Dak to build his up better. It has to happen now because the “young and developing QB” label slips off easily at age 29. He is starting to reach his full form.
Look at these metrics and see if the red boxes (especially the second one) stick out a bit.
Dak Prescott Year by Year
That QBR is interesting, right? That is the ESPN stat that attempts to factor in more than just “passing” for a QB and I think that is where we see a massive disconnect between what was largely his best efficiency as a passer in any season vs. his worst QBR of any season. If we dig a little, we might find that this is where the issue can be found.
He had more fumbles last season (14) than any time of his career. He lost six and that was also a carer high. If you use QBR, it properly assigns credit or blame for a QB fumbling. … And for sacks. And for using his feet. From 2016 through 2020, when Prescott used his feet to run with the ball, he moved the chains nearly 40 percent of the time. In 2021? 15 percent.
So, he ran fewer times for fewer yards, but fumbled more. Much more.
He did have more big-time throws than any season, but also more turnover-worthy plays of any time in his career. But, my biggest beef was discussed more with The Athletic’s Diante Lee a few weeks back. It was clear in the playoff game — the one game that matters more than the others combined — that the 49ers hustled Prescott a bit. They gave him the short sticks and hooks to lesser targets all day and took away the chances for more explosive plays to his playmakers. He decided to comply with their wishes.
You might say, Bob, that is unfair. We are told to “take what the defense gives you” and he did just that. You are right. You are right that it isn’t fair and that he did the right thing on the whiteboard. You can’t get broke taking a profit of seven yards. What is the big deal?
The big deal is that the 49ers were gambling that you could not do that enough times to beat them. Even in a low-scoring game (which it was), they gambled that eventually, a penalty, a sack or a mistake would end the Cowboys’ drives and the stadium would get frustrated and the Dallas self-destruction machine would engage like it seems to always do in January (whether Romo or Prescott, by the way).
Where we are headed
This is why my challenge to Prescott is to take control of this battleship. Take more control of the game plan. Choose not to comply with the defense’s wishes or your opponent’s beliefs. Take control of your legacy.
Sometimes efficiency is the way to go. Other times — those games when you are the difference between winning and losing — you have to show why they pay you the big bucks. You have to forgo efficiency for attacking. Aggressiveness is not something to be used too much, but when the ship is on fire, you need to take action. You have to make the play that isn’t on the whiteboard. You have to show them why you are different.
This is my plea for the Cowboys QB. Push the risk level forward in these legacy situations. When you go into Arrowhead without your best receiver, point to your chest in the huddle and tell them you got this. Don’t take the safe read. Show them there is no sure way to defend you.
Dak Prescott (Jason Parkhurst / USA Today)
He has to take this step and it has to be now. The training wheels are off and the graduation is complete. Now, in my mind, the Cowboys’ near future looks to Prescott, himself. The defense is as good as it has been and the weapons are available on offense.
Prescott has to show why some of us have been in his corner since Day 1. It wasn’t because he would take checkdowns to the hook all day. It was because he knew when he had to make a play himself. He knew when it was time to hit the go route or time to take on a linebacker at the sticks.
He will be 30 soon. If he doesn’t hit the gas now, the team will start to ponder drafting a potential successor in a few years. We have seen it all over the league and would be silly to think his time will last forever.
Does he not like the scheme? Say so. Does he not like Tony Pollard standing on the sideline? Say so. Does he want CeeDee Lamb in the slot and not Cedrick Wilson? Say so. Speak up. We can change the coaches every year, but that won’t get him closer to the top of the hill. It might do the opposite.
The Prescott we have seen in many situations — most recently in Tampa Bay and in New England last year — needs to show himself down the stretch more often. Not every down and every week. Just the key ones. He has the volume stats. Now we need that play at that moment more often. September is nice. January is where legacies are secured. He needs to make that shot at that key spot to forge a memory that cannot be taken away.
How can a No. 1 offense improve? Do it more when it matters most. If you truly have a QB1 of great quality, we should all be comfortable understanding that it ultimately rests with him. Either he gets back to dictating terms to his opponent when they challenge his scouting report or the Cowboys might have a nice QB, but not the one they thought they had when they paid him.
This is my plea for this stage of Prescott’s career. I am sure it will seem harsh to some and “about time” to others. I don’t want empty calories from this guy. He is better than that. I don’t want wins over Washington and New York. He needs his best performance this year.
To whom much is given, much is expected. It is time we all expect more of Prescott. And as the true QB legends of this franchise have already proven, that is completely about team accomplishments.
Aug 12, 2022
(Every week until the regular season, this series will put the spotlight on a key but not fully established Cowboys player who is still on his way to his finished form. It will try to examine where his journey has gone so far, where 2022 might take him and beyond. The first three players featured were TE Dalton Schultz, CB Trevon Diggs and Tony Pollard.)
Everyone knows by now that this has always been a very nurturing Dak Prescott space. Over the years, you could find countless pieces of support and explanations on how the Cowboys have a very good QB and that the public has gone way too far with the constant belly-aching about every detail of his game. How he has earned his standing in the league and his contract that demonstrates it. But, the public demands further Super Bowls from this franchise — rightfully so — and therefore consistently rips the starting QB to shreds every time the Cowboys fall short versus an opponent in a significant moment. This was true well before Prescott lived here and will probably be true well past his exit if he doesn’t kill the demons and win it all sometime himself.
It seems to someone like me who has covered this team for a few decades now that the last group of QB1 defenders — those who explained how Tony Romo was never to blame for any franchise shortfalls — turned on the new QB1 (Prescott) to protect his predecessor’s legacy. If Romo was going to be blamed too much, in their estimation, we are going to make sure that the new guy gets it even worse.
I know the history since Troy Aikman all too well and I know this is a dangerous column to write for all of these reasons. Still, I’ve had it on my mind for months so let’s get it on (digital) paper today.
It is time for Prescott to take the next big step. There aren’t many steps left for him to take, but he has a few more up to the very top. Sands are going through the hourglass as we speak. It is time. Right now. In 2022.
Did you know Prescott just turned 29? You may think of him as the new guy, but in a league where the average career length is roughly less than 3 1/2 years, Prescott is double that. His money is guaranteed for a significant time longer where even if the Cowboys wanted to walk away from him, it is certainly another 30 months before they could even consider it. He is that secured.
He has played his tail off. He has left body parts on the field. He has been a credit to all who have raised him and brought him to this point of his life. He seems a better human than a player at times, and that is meant as a compliment. There are so many ways life can destroy a man who can have nearly anything he wants, and this man appears to handle his personal life with some wisdom (not always a given in this day and age).
His personality has probably caused some of us to defend him more to the national press. The job of a Cowboys QB generally makes one a piñata to those who love to see this franchise twist in the wind — we know there are many. Unfair treatment should be met with some defense mechanisms and I have the time to offer them. Today’s is not for that.
Today I explain my stance for 2022 for Prescott and look back at 2021 with the proper tone — because last year very well could have been the year. There are a few reasons why it wasn’t the year for this franchise to break those chains of mediocrity.
And QB play was absolutely one of them.
Where we have been
This is where there is generally a disconnect in the conversation with loyalists. Because the facts are he set a franchise season-high record with 37 touchdown passes. He had a career-high in completion percentage and won 12 games while coming off a major injury and dealing with another one all season.
How is that not a completely successful QB campaign?
So much of 2021 felt like empty calories. The other day on the NFL Network, Michael Gallup was a guest. The host pointed out Dallas was the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 1 yardage offense and then asked: How do they get better than No. 1?
Gallup replied, “Being at No. 1 last year was great, but that was last year. But, can you do it again? Be better than No. 1.”
I don’t want to be disrespectful to anyone who was part of the No. 1 offense and I also concede that statistically, you cannot possibly look at the production last year as something that needs improvement, so I will not make that case.
530 points and 407 yards per game were the best in football.
But it sure seemed that the Cowboys dealt with offensive problems much of the season. Not all of it. Early in the year when they started with a valiant performance at Tampa Bay and a win at Los Angeles against the Chargers it was clearly a positive start. Then, they were carving up the Eagles, Panthers and Giants in that long homestand. They went to New England with Prescott playing unreal football and won followed by going to Minnesota without Prescott and won again to improve to 6-1 in what was the start of something seemingly special.
Of course, New England was when the calf injury surfaced and we have no real idea how that affected things from that point. Prescott missed a game and returned with extra amounts of caution, so we must assume that between the broken leg and the damaged calf, he was compromised and the offense started sputtering.
Also, the league started adjusting how it played the Cowboys. The blitzing stopped and the man coverage slowed dramatically. Dallas went from the most blitzed team from Weeks 1 through 8 to the 22nd most blitzed team down the stretch. They also saw as much Cover 2 and Cover 3 looks as anyone. Teams called off the pressure up front and packed the secondary with more defenders to limit the damage Dallas could do. And it worked. Dallas went from one of the most explosive offenses in the league to just another offense.
But, wait, it gets worse.
The last two months of the season were propped up with a game against the very silly Atlanta Falcons, two games against Washington, one more with the Giants, one with the Saints who had no QB, and one with the Eagles who played their junior varsity team against the Cowboys who played everyone. Somehow, Dallas seemed focused on eating as many empty calories as possible in pursuit of feel-good milestones for players, all the while never actually fixing the issues that would ultimately be their undoing.
Because if the Cardinals game didn’t warn us enough, the NFC West was not bringing anything soft and easy to the wild-card round as the 49ers came calling. I remember the week of in this space trying to discuss that when it comes to playing zone defense and getting pressure without blitzing, the 49ers are all of the things that give the Cowboys offense big issues. This one might not be pretty. It was in that game when everything — the running game, pass protection, big plays, third downs, the yards per play — broke in a very familiar way.
What happened to the No. 1 offense? Why do we now look to Prescott to fix it?
This is where the rubber meets the road in my somewhat nuanced messaging today.
Prescott was really good and had extenuating circumstances the past few years. But, as we enter camp, I hear about pressure on the coaching staff to win now, or else. Fine. That is what we all expect and that 12 months from now, after Prescott turns 30 and Dallas hires a new offensive staff, we can do this all again. I am sure then in 2023 we will say that it is just “Year 1 in a new system and we need patience.” Then 12 months after that and he turns 31 and it is 2024, we can gather again and talk about he needs more familiarity with the new targets Dallas just drafted. Just wait. Then he will turn 32 in 2025 and it will be three new offensive linemen. And so on and so on.
This is how careers go. They go fast and if we like a special QB, we can find excuses at every turn on how it isn’t on this guy. Not our guy’s fault! Blame this WR coach or this backup guard. Surely, Chris Gronkowski is to blame (sorry)! But, if we pay our guy $40 million, it is because we feel our guy is the straw that stirs the drink. But, if it is never his fault when something goes wrong, then we are not being honest. If you pay him like the best, you better hold him to the standards of the best, too … or you are wasting your money and his prime.
Let me detail a few things about Prescott’s 2021.
He had tremendous statistics. But dig a little deeper and you can find real issues. Red zone and third-down play down the stretch was problematic. The “big games” in Kansas City, Thanksgiving, Arizona and San Francisco are certainly cherry-picked, but that is sort of how QB legacies work.
There is nothing more pleasing to report to the masses that Dak is 25-6 against the NFC East. This shuts down much chirping from Eagles and Giants fans. No doubt, winning your division every year is vital and a prerequisite to better things. Maybe Dallas can pull off consecutive division titles for the first time since it won five consecutive with Mr. Aikman from 1992 to 1996.
The problem with that stat is that if you then ask about “out of division” against the league’s other competition and concede that beyond the Eagles, this division has been a bit of a joke since Prescott was a college student, you will find that Prescott’s career W-L record goes from an amazingly impressive 53-32 overall to a far less daunting 28-26 against non-divisional foes.
Good enough to beat the horrendous QBs that this division has put out against him is hardly a legacy. It is time for Dak to build his up better. It has to happen now because the “young and developing QB” label slips off easily at age 29. He is starting to reach his full form.
Look at these metrics and see if the red boxes (especially the second one) stick out a bit.
Dak Prescott Year by Year
| YEAR | AGE | GS | CMP% | YDS | TD | INT | Y/A | AY/A | Y/C | RATE | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | 16 | 67.8 | 3667 | 23 | 4 | 8 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 104.9 | 77.6 |
| 2017 | 24 | 16 | 62.9 | 3324 | 22 | 13 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 86.6 | 69.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | 16 | 67.7 | 3885 | 22 | 8 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 96.9 | 55.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | 16 | 65.1 | 4902 | 30 | 11 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 12.6 | 99.7 | 71.9 |
| 2020 | 27 | 5 | 68 | 1856 | 9 | 4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 99.6 | 73.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | 16 | 68.8 | 4449 | 37 | 10 | 7.5 | 8 | 10.9 | 104.2 | 54.6 |
That QBR is interesting, right? That is the ESPN stat that attempts to factor in more than just “passing” for a QB and I think that is where we see a massive disconnect between what was largely his best efficiency as a passer in any season vs. his worst QBR of any season. If we dig a little, we might find that this is where the issue can be found.
He had more fumbles last season (14) than any time of his career. He lost six and that was also a carer high. If you use QBR, it properly assigns credit or blame for a QB fumbling. … And for sacks. And for using his feet. From 2016 through 2020, when Prescott used his feet to run with the ball, he moved the chains nearly 40 percent of the time. In 2021? 15 percent.
So, he ran fewer times for fewer yards, but fumbled more. Much more.
He did have more big-time throws than any season, but also more turnover-worthy plays of any time in his career. But, my biggest beef was discussed more with The Athletic’s Diante Lee a few weeks back. It was clear in the playoff game — the one game that matters more than the others combined — that the 49ers hustled Prescott a bit. They gave him the short sticks and hooks to lesser targets all day and took away the chances for more explosive plays to his playmakers. He decided to comply with their wishes.
You might say, Bob, that is unfair. We are told to “take what the defense gives you” and he did just that. You are right. You are right that it isn’t fair and that he did the right thing on the whiteboard. You can’t get broke taking a profit of seven yards. What is the big deal?
The big deal is that the 49ers were gambling that you could not do that enough times to beat them. Even in a low-scoring game (which it was), they gambled that eventually, a penalty, a sack or a mistake would end the Cowboys’ drives and the stadium would get frustrated and the Dallas self-destruction machine would engage like it seems to always do in January (whether Romo or Prescott, by the way).
Where we are headed
This is why my challenge to Prescott is to take control of this battleship. Take more control of the game plan. Choose not to comply with the defense’s wishes or your opponent’s beliefs. Take control of your legacy.
Sometimes efficiency is the way to go. Other times — those games when you are the difference between winning and losing — you have to show why they pay you the big bucks. You have to forgo efficiency for attacking. Aggressiveness is not something to be used too much, but when the ship is on fire, you need to take action. You have to make the play that isn’t on the whiteboard. You have to show them why you are different.
This is my plea for the Cowboys QB. Push the risk level forward in these legacy situations. When you go into Arrowhead without your best receiver, point to your chest in the huddle and tell them you got this. Don’t take the safe read. Show them there is no sure way to defend you.
Dak Prescott (Jason Parkhurst / USA Today)
He has to take this step and it has to be now. The training wheels are off and the graduation is complete. Now, in my mind, the Cowboys’ near future looks to Prescott, himself. The defense is as good as it has been and the weapons are available on offense.
Prescott has to show why some of us have been in his corner since Day 1. It wasn’t because he would take checkdowns to the hook all day. It was because he knew when he had to make a play himself. He knew when it was time to hit the go route or time to take on a linebacker at the sticks.
He will be 30 soon. If he doesn’t hit the gas now, the team will start to ponder drafting a potential successor in a few years. We have seen it all over the league and would be silly to think his time will last forever.
Does he not like the scheme? Say so. Does he not like Tony Pollard standing on the sideline? Say so. Does he want CeeDee Lamb in the slot and not Cedrick Wilson? Say so. Speak up. We can change the coaches every year, but that won’t get him closer to the top of the hill. It might do the opposite.
The Prescott we have seen in many situations — most recently in Tampa Bay and in New England last year — needs to show himself down the stretch more often. Not every down and every week. Just the key ones. He has the volume stats. Now we need that play at that moment more often. September is nice. January is where legacies are secured. He needs to make that shot at that key spot to forge a memory that cannot be taken away.
How can a No. 1 offense improve? Do it more when it matters most. If you truly have a QB1 of great quality, we should all be comfortable understanding that it ultimately rests with him. Either he gets back to dictating terms to his opponent when they challenge his scouting report or the Cowboys might have a nice QB, but not the one they thought they had when they paid him.
This is my plea for this stage of Prescott’s career. I am sure it will seem harsh to some and “about time” to others. I don’t want empty calories from this guy. He is better than that. I don’t want wins over Washington and New York. He needs his best performance this year.
To whom much is given, much is expected. It is time we all expect more of Prescott. And as the true QB legends of this franchise have already proven, that is completely about team accomplishments.
