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Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts for Week 18
It is a "take this to your f---ing grave" game in Washington for the second seed.
BOB STURM
JAN 6, 2024
Week 18.
A week that means very little in most NFL cities. A week that you either want to “get it over with” so the offseason can begin or “get through it” so the playoffs can start with health intact.
There are few teams in between, but Dallas is fortunate enough to be one of them.
When last we saw them, the Cowboys were enjoying a bit of an unlikely win against the Detroit Lions. Never did we think that Week 18 might have some gigantic ramifications, but here they are.
Thanks to the Arizona Cardinals, somehow – the same Cardinals that started all of this 2023 chasing-of-the-tail – the Cowboys have been blessed with a favor from an unexpected source. The Cowboys have everything in their hands to not only host a playoff game, but host two.
And then, not only that, but in a rematch with an irate Detroit Lions franchise, it will be back in Dallas. And then, not only that, but in the event San Francisco stumbles in its divisional round, the Cowboys could conceivably be playing the last road game of the year on Sunday in Washington. That is right, with one more unexpected favor – could the Eagles shock the NFL by winning in Santa Clara? – Dallas could host a long-awaited return to the NFC Championship Game in a year where they were easily the best home team in the NFL.
I am getting ahead of myself.
In a game that lacks a lot to tell you about the actual opponent, here are my three Cowboys-Commanders pregame thoughts:
– This game has me thinking, yet again, about the late, great Herb Brooks. I think I would like the legendary hockey coach to give the pregame speech to the Cowboys if he was still alive.
I haven’t made my list in a while, but if you know my work, you know that my favorite sporting event of all time is deep from my childhood. It will remain my favorite sporting event until the day I die. It is, of course, the Miracle on Ice in the 1980 USA Olympic Hockey Team and their victory at Lake Placid.
The Miracle was beating the big, bad, mean Russians in the semi-finals in an incredibly unlikely win. They had just beat us, 10-0, in New York City a week before the Olympics, so they weren’t just better than our plucky little college boys, but they were a lot better. A lot.
But, thanks to the gang, Mike Eruzione and Jim Craig and friends, the USA beat the Russians and 7-year Bob got caught up in the frenzy.
We had a couple boys from my town of Madison, Wisconsin, on that team, the late Bob Suter (the brother of Gary Suter and father of current Dallas Stars player, Ryan Suter) and Mark Johnson (technically, a Minnesota kid who played for the Wisconsin Badgers, so we claimed him as our own. Sue me) and I remember thinking our family by extension just accomplished something.
Those of you who wonder why I am never screaming at the Stars about playing Ryan too much will now understand, I am too close to the situation. His dad sold me at least two pairs of hockey skates when I was a kid and is basically royalty in my eyes.
Anyway, that story means everything to me and 20-plus years ago, HBO created one of the best documentaries I have ever seen, “Do You Believe In Miracles” and you can see it on Youtube here. I love it very much.
Anyway, the USA had beaten the Russians, but they had to win one more game – a much, much easier task. But given that they were just part of a massive upset, they better not allow themselves to be upset, too, by Finland.
So, guys, gear up. You still have to beat Finland or everything you just accomplished will no longer matter. Here is the best 15 seconds of the story, as Eruzione uses salty language to re-tell his coach’s message to them to not let this moment slip:
“And we were excited, we were anxious, we couldn't wait to get out and play. And Herb Brooks walked into the locker room and he looked at us and he said, if you lose this game, you'll take it to your f—-ing grave. Then he stopped, he walked a couple of steps, turned, looked at us again and said, you f—-ing grave.”
That gives me chills every time I watch it.
If you listen to my show or read my work over any length of time, I reference that a lot. Because it often applies. A team does so much work but might let their guard down if the toughest part is behind them. But, it is all the toughest part and the job isn’t done until the job is done. There is no strategy to discuss and no secret plays to a victory. But, gentlemen, bring your best effort and do not disrespect or overlook this opponent, because you have worked too hard to mess it up now.
If the Cowboys play this hard this year and do all of this work and then get a blessing from from Kyler Murray and his friends and then stumble at the finish line to give it all back…. you will take it to your grave how bad you messed this one up.
So, yeah, don’t let that happen. I don’t know that Malik Hooker and Jalen Tolbert have ever heard of Herb Brooks, but I would appreciate it if someone shows this story to the team before Sunday.
When Dallas has the ball:
– I expect the Cowboys to be sharp, aggressive, and determined to play some of their best offensive football of the season. There is too much at stake to start timidly. Feed the studs and unleash mayhem.
Washington has a very bad defense and now we find out that Jonathan Allen has been declared out. So, the one massive threat that this defense brings to the table – their interior with the two Alabama hulks – is half the strength it normally is. Daron Payne will still be there, but to imagine this season started with Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, and Chase Young and now has nothing even close to that should tell you things changed pretty fast in the NFL – and that Washington is sort of nuts for trading Sweat, IMO.
Regardless, there are seldom times where you should pretty much not worry at all about your opponent and just get your work done as Sunday represents. This isn’t about them as they will likely detonate a massive rebuild (again) in Washington by Monday morning. These guys might finally be at a good spot to start completely over and those trades in October signaled as much. They are bad and they know it.
But, for Dallas, the idea must be to not let Washington get any vibes going. Make this a two-score game immediately and then choke them out by leaning on them and testing their resolve as their cars are already packed with their belongings. There should be no easier opponent to demoralize than one that knows the firings are happening in the morning. Feed that early and often.
We assume that Tyler Smith will be held out, but otherwise, it should be a complete full-go for the offense. It should also be a time for Prescott to finish his best season on the full sprint. After playing maybe his worst game as a professional in Week 18 in Washington last year, this one needs to erase all of those ugly memories.
Holy heck, this was an ugly line from him and his film confirmed it:
No QB in the NFL has a better TD/INT differential than Prescott’s +24. He has been the best version of himself in 2023 and a +24 proves it as he goes for the NFL TD crown in 2023 as well with 32 TD’s and just 8 INT’s.
Also, pass protection and getting the running game feeling good is also a priority for me.
When Washington has the ball:
–If Washington is going to cause problems on Sunday, it will be because their offense was able to attack with explosive plays and you allowed them life.
For the most part against the Lions, Dallas’ defense was very strong. The final stats did not flatter them, but the huge pass to Jameson Williams and then the prevent drive late definitely blurred the analysis. But, they need to convince themselves that this game needs their attention just as much. They need a pass rush that is relentless and they need to force the NFL leader in interceptions into some more of them.
I say this every week, but I will say it again. If Dallas can get one takeaway per half, this game will be won.
Sam Howell is an interesting young player. I am putting his draft evaluation below from the 2022 draft so you can take a look. He has played in all 17 games this year, even though the Commanders attempted to bench him after his very rough stretch of play. His replacement, Jacoby Brissett hurt himself in practice, so Howell was pushed back out there.
He has been pretty bad since Week 10 and has 3 touchdowns against 10 interceptions since then. He has no confidence right now, so it would be disastrous to give him life. You imagine that he knows this is his last game as the clear No. 1 in Washington because they are surely taking a QB with the No. 2 pick in April – provided they don’t mess up their draft position by winning this game. He will likely play with his normal recklessness, but that can be a problem if he starts to feel it. The Cowboys must apply pressure and not let Terry McLaurin to get into his “Cowboys Killer” mode.
I think Dallas knows what is at stake and I expect they will attempt to be in a strong position immediately. I will trust them in this spot (famous last words?) and expect something in the 33-10 range. There is just too much at stake.
Don’t forget what Herb Brooks said.
Sturm 60 Draft Profile - 2022
Sam Howell — North Carolina — 6-0 – 218 – Jersey No. 7
It is a "take this to your f---ing grave" game in Washington for the second seed.
BOB STURM
JAN 6, 2024
Week 18.
A week that means very little in most NFL cities. A week that you either want to “get it over with” so the offseason can begin or “get through it” so the playoffs can start with health intact.
There are few teams in between, but Dallas is fortunate enough to be one of them.
When last we saw them, the Cowboys were enjoying a bit of an unlikely win against the Detroit Lions. Never did we think that Week 18 might have some gigantic ramifications, but here they are.
Thanks to the Arizona Cardinals, somehow – the same Cardinals that started all of this 2023 chasing-of-the-tail – the Cowboys have been blessed with a favor from an unexpected source. The Cowboys have everything in their hands to not only host a playoff game, but host two.
And then, not only that, but in a rematch with an irate Detroit Lions franchise, it will be back in Dallas. And then, not only that, but in the event San Francisco stumbles in its divisional round, the Cowboys could conceivably be playing the last road game of the year on Sunday in Washington. That is right, with one more unexpected favor – could the Eagles shock the NFL by winning in Santa Clara? – Dallas could host a long-awaited return to the NFC Championship Game in a year where they were easily the best home team in the NFL.
I am getting ahead of myself.
In a game that lacks a lot to tell you about the actual opponent, here are my three Cowboys-Commanders pregame thoughts:
– This game has me thinking, yet again, about the late, great Herb Brooks. I think I would like the legendary hockey coach to give the pregame speech to the Cowboys if he was still alive.
I haven’t made my list in a while, but if you know my work, you know that my favorite sporting event of all time is deep from my childhood. It will remain my favorite sporting event until the day I die. It is, of course, the Miracle on Ice in the 1980 USA Olympic Hockey Team and their victory at Lake Placid.
The Miracle was beating the big, bad, mean Russians in the semi-finals in an incredibly unlikely win. They had just beat us, 10-0, in New York City a week before the Olympics, so they weren’t just better than our plucky little college boys, but they were a lot better. A lot.
But, thanks to the gang, Mike Eruzione and Jim Craig and friends, the USA beat the Russians and 7-year Bob got caught up in the frenzy.
We had a couple boys from my town of Madison, Wisconsin, on that team, the late Bob Suter (the brother of Gary Suter and father of current Dallas Stars player, Ryan Suter) and Mark Johnson (technically, a Minnesota kid who played for the Wisconsin Badgers, so we claimed him as our own. Sue me) and I remember thinking our family by extension just accomplished something.
Those of you who wonder why I am never screaming at the Stars about playing Ryan too much will now understand, I am too close to the situation. His dad sold me at least two pairs of hockey skates when I was a kid and is basically royalty in my eyes.
Anyway, that story means everything to me and 20-plus years ago, HBO created one of the best documentaries I have ever seen, “Do You Believe In Miracles” and you can see it on Youtube here. I love it very much.
Anyway, the USA had beaten the Russians, but they had to win one more game – a much, much easier task. But given that they were just part of a massive upset, they better not allow themselves to be upset, too, by Finland.
So, guys, gear up. You still have to beat Finland or everything you just accomplished will no longer matter. Here is the best 15 seconds of the story, as Eruzione uses salty language to re-tell his coach’s message to them to not let this moment slip:
“And we were excited, we were anxious, we couldn't wait to get out and play. And Herb Brooks walked into the locker room and he looked at us and he said, if you lose this game, you'll take it to your f—-ing grave. Then he stopped, he walked a couple of steps, turned, looked at us again and said, you f—-ing grave.”
That gives me chills every time I watch it.
If you listen to my show or read my work over any length of time, I reference that a lot. Because it often applies. A team does so much work but might let their guard down if the toughest part is behind them. But, it is all the toughest part and the job isn’t done until the job is done. There is no strategy to discuss and no secret plays to a victory. But, gentlemen, bring your best effort and do not disrespect or overlook this opponent, because you have worked too hard to mess it up now.
If the Cowboys play this hard this year and do all of this work and then get a blessing from from Kyler Murray and his friends and then stumble at the finish line to give it all back…. you will take it to your grave how bad you messed this one up.
So, yeah, don’t let that happen. I don’t know that Malik Hooker and Jalen Tolbert have ever heard of Herb Brooks, but I would appreciate it if someone shows this story to the team before Sunday.
When Dallas has the ball:
– I expect the Cowboys to be sharp, aggressive, and determined to play some of their best offensive football of the season. There is too much at stake to start timidly. Feed the studs and unleash mayhem.
Washington has a very bad defense and now we find out that Jonathan Allen has been declared out. So, the one massive threat that this defense brings to the table – their interior with the two Alabama hulks – is half the strength it normally is. Daron Payne will still be there, but to imagine this season started with Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, and Chase Young and now has nothing even close to that should tell you things changed pretty fast in the NFL – and that Washington is sort of nuts for trading Sweat, IMO.
Regardless, there are seldom times where you should pretty much not worry at all about your opponent and just get your work done as Sunday represents. This isn’t about them as they will likely detonate a massive rebuild (again) in Washington by Monday morning. These guys might finally be at a good spot to start completely over and those trades in October signaled as much. They are bad and they know it.
But, for Dallas, the idea must be to not let Washington get any vibes going. Make this a two-score game immediately and then choke them out by leaning on them and testing their resolve as their cars are already packed with their belongings. There should be no easier opponent to demoralize than one that knows the firings are happening in the morning. Feed that early and often.
We assume that Tyler Smith will be held out, but otherwise, it should be a complete full-go for the offense. It should also be a time for Prescott to finish his best season on the full sprint. After playing maybe his worst game as a professional in Week 18 in Washington last year, this one needs to erase all of those ugly memories.
Holy heck, this was an ugly line from him and his film confirmed it:
No QB in the NFL has a better TD/INT differential than Prescott’s +24. He has been the best version of himself in 2023 and a +24 proves it as he goes for the NFL TD crown in 2023 as well with 32 TD’s and just 8 INT’s.
- Prescott, DAL - +24
- Purdy, SF - +20
- Love, GB - +19
- Mayfield, TB - +18
- Jackson, BAL - +17
Also, pass protection and getting the running game feeling good is also a priority for me.
When Washington has the ball:
–If Washington is going to cause problems on Sunday, it will be because their offense was able to attack with explosive plays and you allowed them life.
For the most part against the Lions, Dallas’ defense was very strong. The final stats did not flatter them, but the huge pass to Jameson Williams and then the prevent drive late definitely blurred the analysis. But, they need to convince themselves that this game needs their attention just as much. They need a pass rush that is relentless and they need to force the NFL leader in interceptions into some more of them.
I say this every week, but I will say it again. If Dallas can get one takeaway per half, this game will be won.
Sam Howell is an interesting young player. I am putting his draft evaluation below from the 2022 draft so you can take a look. He has played in all 17 games this year, even though the Commanders attempted to bench him after his very rough stretch of play. His replacement, Jacoby Brissett hurt himself in practice, so Howell was pushed back out there.
He has been pretty bad since Week 10 and has 3 touchdowns against 10 interceptions since then. He has no confidence right now, so it would be disastrous to give him life. You imagine that he knows this is his last game as the clear No. 1 in Washington because they are surely taking a QB with the No. 2 pick in April – provided they don’t mess up their draft position by winning this game. He will likely play with his normal recklessness, but that can be a problem if he starts to feel it. The Cowboys must apply pressure and not let Terry McLaurin to get into his “Cowboys Killer” mode.
I think Dallas knows what is at stake and I expect they will attempt to be in a strong position immediately. I will trust them in this spot (famous last words?) and expect something in the 33-10 range. There is just too much at stake.
Don’t forget what Herb Brooks said.
Sturm 60 Draft Profile - 2022
Sam Howell — North Carolina — 6-0 – 218 – Jersey No. 7
