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By Bob Sturm Jan 28, 2021
Before we get going, it is important to be clear that a shopping list for the Cowboys offseason is generally best to compile around the final week in January. We know many things will change, but it is also good to try to recall what is badly needed so there are no delusions or justifications provided for jobs left undone once we go – or stay here, if I were to guess this year’s outcome – to training camp in late July.
The Cowboys were not a very good football team in 2020. That goes for both sides of the roster and all three phases, as they say. Injuries can be blamed for some of the carnage, but we would be quite foolish to assume a healthier roster alone will resolve much of what ailed them. Football is a game of attrition, and the tribulations brought on by health were certainly not the only reason – or, frankly, not the primary reason – for the depths of the defenses’ folly.
Former NFL head coaches and 2020’s defensive brain trust, Mike Nolan and Jim Tomsula, both paid for that failure with their jobs, making way for Dan Quinn and his new defensive staff. We would like to think Quinn has a book of magic spells to quickly transform this group into something special, but we know that is unlikely to be the case unless they are aided by some significant additions of personnel and talent. We also know that the salary cap is likely to either remain completely flat or to decline in 2021 and the Cowboys have an incredibly complex situation with QB1 to resolve that will soak up a huge portion of their available cap room. Last season’s losses have helped their draft position, but it is probably not enough to compensate for minimal cap space to add players (more on that below).
They also have 17 unrestricted free agents who will hit the market and could very well open new holes for this roster. The good news is that besides Prescott, this is nothing close to the massive amounts of red meat at the end of contracts 12 months ago. Last year, Dallas was up to their necks in tough decisions among a group including a top cornerback (Byron Jones), a top wide receiver (Amari Cooper), an edge rusher coming off 11.5 sacks (Robert Quinn) and a QB1 of one of the top offenses in the league (Dak). With limited cap space, they chose two. Perhaps they were the proper two, but I do think it is fair to wonder (and perhaps become the topic of a future piece) if they would happily swap Amari Cooper for Byron Jones today. Maybe they wouldn’t, but when the decision was due, they could have never imagined their first-round pick was going to be a WR in CeeDee Lamb. Consequently, the WR position would be more than fortified and the secondary quite a bit less in the first season.
Still, decisions must be made over the next several months. First, here is what the Cowboys are looking at in terms of available resources:
17 free agents
This group features Dak Prescott and a bunch of disposable guys. I mean no offense to any of them, but if you told me none of the remaining 16 could return, we would survive. It remains a mystery how they tied up $16 million of last year’s cap in Tyrone Crawford, Sean Lee and Cam Erving, but I suppose they would have all been vital had the team made a deep playoff run. As it stands, I think the only important free agents who must be considered will be Aldon Smith, Chidobe Awuzie and Xavier Woods – and, to be honest, even those three would likely have to return at terms favorable to the team, as none of the above have demonstrated anything that seems to suggest they are worth overpaying. Smith had too many quiet games down the stretch, Awuzie is limited and probably the easiest to replace on draft day and Woods is probably redundant with Donovan Wilson in the fold. Neither seems ideal as a center fielder and Wilson has the advantage of two more years of very cheap labor ahead, while Woods would probably call for $5 million to $6 million per year.
There are others who are potentially useful reserves – Joe Looney, Blake Bell, Andy Dalton (doubtful), CJ Goodwin, Justin March and perhaps even Jourdan Lewis – but they would require the right price tag. I swear Lewis is still an interesting safety candidate if he stays, especially with an unused Reggie Robinson likely returning to corner, but he now has a great say in his future, and I just don’t value him much as a cover corner.
Minimal cap space
This depends on quite a few things, including the final accounting of league revenues and the negotiations of how to avoid a catastrophic dip in the cap, which would not be great news for just about any of the hundreds of NFL players who would either be free agents or under contract in a non-essential capacity. A dip in the cap would put the Cowboys in great peril and perhaps motivate them to change direction at the quarterback position. They appear to be at roughly $132 million without Prescott, and he counts for nearly $38 million on a second franchise tag, which makes Dallas’ number $170 million. Add $6 million to $7 million for the rookie class, and that is all she wrote if we’re assuming the 2021 cap sits at around $176 million (as has been predicted in some circles). That would be a disaster and could very well signal a series of substantial exits and alterations.
That provides a lot of incentive to get an extension done with Prescott or detonate the negotiations. That’s also why you can assume most of the additions are going to have to be either very cheap or strictly from the draft.
2021 draft picks
The Cowboys will pick at No. 10, No. 44, and No. 75 as of now, with the promise of some compensatory picks being added as well. Their Day 3 haul still must have its specifics determined, too. Here is the Top 100 as currently ranked by our Dane Brugler. You can see that there are potentially four QBs, three WRs, three offensive tackles, and a tight end in the first dozen picks. Assuming the Cowboys understands the ramifications of their cap sheet and the resulting limitations on fixing their defense, I suspect they will be quite motivated to make sure they consider all options. That likely means hitting defense several times on Days 1 and 2 – including the real possibility that the Cowboys might still be able to pick the very best defensive player in this draft 10th overall.
Now that we know what they can work with, let’s look at the up-to-the-minute depth chart at Ourlads and discuss what they seem to clearly need.
Offense
This side of the ball should require minimal renovations.
I cannot write about the quarterbacks – or any of this – without trusting that the front office is smart enough not to enter the new season with $38 million on a franchise tag for Prescott (which, as I wrote earlier in the week, appears to be the worst available option). They should also have the backups squared away, as Garrett Gilbert and Ben DiNucci are both under contract for 2021.
What we think about the running back room likely doesn’t matter, because odds are very high Ezekiel Elliott is in Dallas for at least two more years – which is the exact amount of time Tony Pollard remains under contract. Behind that, you can always upgrade your depth.
At wide receiver, they have as much as they need up front with Cooper, Lamb and Michael Gallup. But Noah Brown has expired, while Gallup and Cedrick Wilson are due to expire at the end of 2021. Surely, they know an extension for Gallup on top of Cooper and Lamb would probably be difficult; could he be moved this spring to address another need before the Cowboys lose him for nothing beside a compensatory pick?
The tight end room will get Blake Jarwin back. Together with Dalton Schultz, they are in good shape.
The offensive line is fairly considered a large part of the transition after this year’s issues. But Zack Martin and La’el Collins are definitely back and can join Connor Williams, Connor McGovern and Tyler Biadasz up front. Then there’s Tyron Smith: I expect he is back, but I also suspect he would sure like to talk about his contract. I also can only assume his body can still take the pounding of NFL Sundays, but since we just dealt with Travis Frederick calling it quits after no buildup, we probably should at least be on Tyron watch.
As you can see, I think the team could manage with what they have in-house and under contract, assuming there’s nothing crazy planned at quarterback. They could play with this offense as presently constituted as long as all of the injured players return in good repair. They could always benefit from an infusion of talent, but I think they know what their resources must be earmarked for.
Defense
We will start with the position that seems like it shouldn’t need much of anything: edge. Edge rusher will be slightly modified back to the standard 4-2-5 look, but we know that DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory will be the top two, with Aldon Smith (assuming he is an easy add at a reasonable number, which I believe to be the case), Dorance Armstrong (final year) and Bradlee Anae providing depth behind them. Considering the defense’s other shortcomings, this is an ideal group. The coaching staff held undrafted rookie Ron’Dell Carter in high regard in 2020, but we will need to see where Quinn falls on him in camp.
Defensive tackle is certainly interesting as we look at what is on hand with the old 1-tech, 3-tech job descriptions. I am quite optimistic about the 3-tech, to be honest, as Neville Gallimore and Trysten Hill both flashed some real potential. Both are very young with some high-end potential. Perhaps Gerald McCoy could rejoin this squad, too; I have no actual substance of a scoop here, but I do believe the plan was to try to provide a place for McCoy when he healed from his season-ending quadriceps injury if the details can be worked out. We shall see. The 1-tech is more complex. Antwaun Woods remains a restricted free agent who should have a place, but it would be nice if he became the backup. Assuming we see this correctly, it looks like they will need to figure out a high-end DT option.
Linebacker has certainly been a stressed spot given the investments in – and disappointing returns from – Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch since 2018. Both need a massive 2021 if this team is going to improve. Sean Lee and Joe Thomas should not be back, meaning it is probably time to invest in some linebacker cover that potentially could start if this vital project doesn’t turn out correctly. I am not saying this is the biggest priority, but it had better be somewhere high on the list.
Cornerback requires three starters these days, and the Cowboys have to sort this spot quickly. Trevon Diggs, Reggie Robinson and Anthony Brown are all under contract for the next few seasons; Diggs and Brown can play full-time, with Robinson still needing to work his way in, as I do believe the new regime is going to scrap the safety project and get the big corner from Tulsa out on the field. That said, as we sit here today, the massive need for a top corner and the Cowboys’ draft slot seem to marry perfectly. That is definitely where I will be focusing my early draft attention.
Safety has long been another concern and target for upgrades, yet the team has generally played its fiddle instead. They do have Wilson breaking out in his second season, which is exciting. Beyond that, though, there are virtually no safeties under contract. I have no issue with Xavier Woods returning at the right price, but that will require both sides figuring it out, and I wouldn’t overextend at all. Basically, the secondary is a real focus for yet another overhaul.
So, here is the shopping list, hypothetically in this order (assuming Prescott is still on the roster):
- Cornerback – likely pick No. 10
- Safety – the lone free-agent target of substance?
- Defensive tackle – Day 2 of draft
- Linebacker – Day 2 of draft
Until then, let me know what you think of this list in the comments.
