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By Bob Sturm 1h ago
If you want to destroy an offensive gameplan, simply attack the offensive line. Better yet, attack previous offensive lines and spook a team before the game even begins.
There have been plenty of offenses over the years that entered a game knowing that they could not block their opponents and quickly deviated from any thoughts of “at least try” that the fanbase or media might offer. Often, they might be stuck in that reality for just a few games while missing an important piece. Other times, an offensive coordinator and his staff end up calling that “normalcy.” They know they don’t have the better big men up front and therefore know better than to even try.
I sense that the Cowboys offensive coaching staff in 2020 will remember far better than the public that they not only lost their quarterback but, perhaps as importantly, lost the line of scrimmage advantage they believe they have had for most of this decade. They entered the year without La’el Collins and quickly lost Tyron Smith, too. Then, on Thanksgiving Day, they lost Zack Martin, leaving them about 1,000 pounds of excellent linemen short of what they needed.
It can certainly be said that too many people fixate on “how many sacks” Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett or even DeMarcus Lawrence get each week. The real question is how much players like that erase chunks of the opposition’s playbook because the OC doesn’t even dare try to run certain plays against their defenses because he knows what will happen.
That has been what Kellen Moore and this coaching staff have had to handle this year. To their credit, they have navigated it pretty well at times. The Cowboys have had substandard tackles for the entire season, and along with the obvious absence of Dak Prescott, that has limited much of what they try in certain games.
And it appears we have very bad news looking forward: Those certain games might all be in the division.
If you were to look back at a good part of the Dallas season, it can be told via the NFC East, which is largely and properly considered the worst division in football.
But before you snicker at how bad this division is, just know that a 5-1 record inside it would have put this team at 9-7 and a runaway title. The reality is simple: Dallas could not win a divisional road game and, frankly, could not handle the fronts of Washington or Philaldelphia (until Fletcher Cox left the second meeting). By all indications, the Giants have now invested in the exact same spot on their roster, too.
You probably know by now that the Cowboys scored 37 points in each of their two divisional wins this year.
In the four games they lost, they scored 47 points total (or 11.7 ppg).
This next visual aid will show you the Cowboys season in a nutshell (courtesy of Pro Football Reference).
I used some red notations to show you the four games in which the NFC East destroyed the Cowboys’ gameplan by taking away any time for a quarterback to make a decision, any ambition of a play-caller to try something and still got home 20 times for sacks. That yellow column shows you the truth: This team could not even average five yards per game in any of these contests in a league where, if you aren’t averaging at least 5.5 per play, you are generally not winning a football game.
But, again, why is this? Well, you cannot block the guy across from you. We can point to other places and complain about a coaching decision or a dropped pass. Those things do matter. But they matter much more if you are allowing six sacks and giving up on probably countless other ideas because you are scared out of your wits that Brandon Knight can’t hold up against Leonard Williams or Chase Young or Fletcher Cox or all of the above.
And in case you think they are being too cautious, go back and look at the six sacks the Cowboys allowed on Sunday.
Each one has a different story to tell, as you can see above and in the banana stand, but you will also see that most happened in 3rd-and-long when the quarterback has to hold the ball long enough for someone to get through their route. So you can tell your QB to get rid of the ball, but if he isn’t trying to move the chains, you might as well hand it off on 3rd-and-8 and bring on the punt team.
Giants defensive coordinator Patrick Graham knew this, however. He was aware the Cowboys couldn’t protect, and therefore, he wasn’t scared of any vertical routes. So the coverage set traps underneath and at the sticks.
And the cat-and-mouse game continued — all because Dallas couldn’t protect for more than 2.5 seconds and they need 3 to throw a vertical that would back everything off.
This is what it looks like when they are making decisions about play-calling and why the offensive line matters. It’s also why you can be misled by looking at sack totals most weeks.
If the objective is to avoid sacks, that can be done easily. If the objective is to avoid sacks while scoring points, well, that gets a lot tougher.
Now look at Washington’s defensive front: Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, Da’Ron Payne and Chase Young
And New York’s front: Dalvin Tomlinson, Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams.
And Philadelphia’s front: Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett and Javon Hargrave.
I just listed 11 players and nine of them were first-rounders. The other two, Tomlinson and Hargrave, were Day 2 guys, and Hargrave just signed a big free-agent deal.
In other words, this division may be a joke at the QB position, but you’d better be able to block people, and that has been the real issue for the Cowboys in 2020. They have nobody up front who can deal with the red meat of the NFC East.
Put them against the weak fronts of the Bengals or the Vikings, and they can survive. Put them in front of the Washington or Giants defense, and they can’t get to 20.
We can blame Andy Dalton on a few of these for holding the ball too long, but his objective is to get to that end zone, so he is erring on the side of giving the play as long as he can. Same with Kellen Moore. At some point, if it is 3rd-and-long, you just have to get a block.
A few weeks ago, we were starting to gain confidence in these four 23-year olds who are trying to figure out their way in the NFL. Maybe Joe Philbin was developing them nicely. Maybe Connor Williams was turning a corner. Today, I sit here and think the latter is probably not true because the standard will be to hold up against Washington, New York and Philaldelphia, and he was worse against those teams this year (as well as his bigger matchups against Aaron Donald, Grady Jarrett, etc.)
So, if you are only good in the favorable matchups, should you have the starting job? I suggest the LG spot in 2021 is open for either Connor — Williams or McGovern — to earn.
And I suggest that whoever it is, the Cowboys better hope the entire unit is back to full health and productivity for things to really improve next year.
Since we are on the topic, are you ready for the stat of the year?
Dallas scored 30 points eight times this year. They also scored less than 20 eight times this year. How many of those games in which they did not score 30 points did they win?
None.
The Cowboys were 6-2 when they scored 30 points. They went 0-8 when they didn’t. That is why the big culprits are the offensive line and the defense.
WEEKLY DATA BOX – Week 17 – NEW YORK GIANTS
3.8 yards per play and yards per pass attempt is comically bad. Then 1-4 in the red zone puts the cherry on top.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
If you read last week’s piece, you are ready for this data. If not, maybe you should.
61 plays in 11 personnel and 3.77 per snap is brutal. It’s impossible to win with that — so, in a way, it is amazing they almost did win.
ANDY DALTON NEXT-GEN THROW CHART
As you can see, a very inefficient day, as Dalton was way off early in the game and should have thrown several interceptions. Then, when he caught a little fire, it was all shorter stuff, and then protection got him, too. Very difficult day against a good defense.
We should definitely also show that the running game has no chance against the Giants. Zeke seemed to be hitting the hole hard, but there was no space. If you had to evaluate the Giants’ defense, you would say they are doing all of this without any edge rushers of consequence. If they can figure that out in the offseason, they will be impossible because that DL is a run-stopping wall.
NextGen Week 17 Cowboys Receivers
And then this, which shows us that the receivers were used but never vertically. The Giants had a plan to attack the QB, and that would speed up everything in the Cowboys’ offense. They were playing offense “defensively” and could neither run effectively nor pass effectively.
That is the story of this game and maybe this season. Until the offensive line can handle its business, expect massive trouble against Washington, New York and Philadelphia. You could argue that the building of the OL in Dallas incentivized the divisional opponents to load up against it. Well, they did.
Now, what can Dallas do to respond?
Next week, we will wrap up the season with a numbers-focused overview, but let’s tackle the topic of the day for the namesake of this Tuesday study: Kellen Moore is
staying put.
By late last week, it seemed like a formality that Moore would take the Boise State head coaching job.
Then Troy Aikman mentioned on Sunday’s game — and doubled down this morning on The Ticket — that basically, Moore decided he wasn’t taking the job in Boise after issues popped up.
It is very interesting, but it definitely puts into the frame that this is not a Jerry Jones override to secure his “coach in waiting” like he did before the 2008 season to prevent Jason Garrett from bolting to the Ravens (effectively naming him Wade Phillips’ eventual successor).
I think it is great Moore is staying put, and great that it was his call versus a money-whipping to undermine Mike McCarthy. I think both have plenty of unfinished business here, and now 2021 can be a big part of that.
This has been a very disappointing season, and I will hold any sort of specific grade on Moore’s work until next week. But, for now, I think this is a piece of bonus good news for the organization because of the relationship that Moore and Dak Prescott have enjoyed together.