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By Bob Sturm Mar 7, 2019
Each week during the buildup to the NFL Draft, we will take a look at around five prospects. The hope is to cover what we perceive as the very best players in this spring’s draft, as well as the Dallas Cowboys’ positions of greatest need in the first three rounds, using about 200 snaps of the most recent college tape from each of the prospects. I am certainly not an NFL scout, but I have found over the years that much can be learned from dedicating a couple of hours to each player and really studying how he might fit at the next level. With a little luck, we will be plenty familiar with the options when the draft arrives in late April.
Late last October, the Dallas Cowboys’ brain trust met to discuss the fact that their offense was nearly devoid of weapons. Yes, they had a very good offensive line and a very good running back, but in a game where the passing attack is a bigger part of success than ever before, they appeared to have a number of replacement-level wide receivers and tight ends who could not challenge opposing defenses.
In other words, they had misevaluated their roster without Jason Witten and Dez Bryant. The offensive results, on a week-to-week basis, were excruciating. Additionally, there were reports that the same brain trust had assured owner and general manager Jerry Jones that things would be fine; that they would patch things together without major investment. The proof was now in the pudding; they had made a significant mistake.
One thing led to another and the Cowboys made a trade with the Oakland Raiders that was largely panned by NFL media. They sent their 2019 first-round selection away for 2015 first-round WR Amari Cooper. Cooper’s first several months in Dallas went very well.
As you can see below, despite playing in only nine regular season games, he led the team in yards, touchdowns, first downs, YAC, and every single per-game statistic you can imagine. He was the legitimate No. 1 wide receiver that the Cowboys have not had not boasted since Dez Bryant in 2014.
| 1 | Amari Cooper | 9 | 76 | 53 | 725 | 6 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 80.6 | 13.7 | 69.7 | 39 | 318 |
| 2 | Cole Beasley | 16 | 87 | 65 | 672 | 3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 42 | 10.3 | 74.7 | 39 | 213 |
| 3 | Michael Gallup | 16 | 68 | 33 | 507 | 2 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 31.7 | 15.4 | 48.5 | 21 | 173 |
| 4 | Allen Hurns | 16 | 35 | 20 | 295 | 2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 18.4 | 14.8 | 57.1 | 11 | 78 |
| 5 | Tavon Austin | 7 | 13 | 8 | 140 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 20 | 17.5 | 61.5 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Deonte Thompson | 8 | 20 | 14 | 124 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 15.5 | 8.9 | 70 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Noah Brown | 8 | 8 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 62.5 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 | Terrance Williams | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 6 | 9 | 66.7 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Brice Butler | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The cost, however, was significant; both the team’s 2019 first-round pick and the contract that will go with it. Amari Cooper is on the books for $13.9m in the final year of his rookie deal in 2019, and it seems likely he will sign what will certainly be a massive extension. The flip side is that he is just 24 years old; only slightly older than Atlanta rookie WR Calvin Ridley, who is also 24. The cost was significant but so was the quality.
The discussion quickly turned into rationalizing the loss of Dallas’ first-round pick. If the Cowboys’ plan was to draft a wide receiver in the first round of the 2019 draft, it seemed like there was nobody close to Cooper’s quality coming out. If the Cowboys were trying to replace Dez Bryant in this draft, would that player be around? Our Dane Brugler wrote his midseason report around the time of the Cooper trade and forecasted no wide receiver among the top 27 prospects. #28 AJ Brown and #32 Marquise Brown landed in the back end of the first round. Chasing a prospect and then expecting him to be high-quality in 2019 seemed like a stretch.
Now we get to see who those potential top picks actually are, how they finished their college careers and how they tested at the NFL Combine. Did the Cowboys make the smart choice? We will certainly need to see everything age for years to come. But here are five of the top wide receivers in a draft where Dallas no longer has a first-rounder. They do, at least, have their No. 1 receiver.
DK Metcalf is a physical marvel who isn’t afraid to show off his incredible physique. He looks the part and turned heads with a 4.33-second 40-yard dash, elite considering his size. He also comes with a few injuries that kept his college production down and left some questions about his ability as a top-shelf receiver. Teams will certainly have to decide whether they are willing to trust the traits and assume that someone this talented will figure things out at the next level.
(Statistics courtesy Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Metcalf has a ridiculous catch radius due to long arms and the strong body to win any 50/50 situation. He plays with the physical style you want from your receivers. He has a great release on vertical routes and an attitude that seems to suggest he is up for any physical battles that may present themselves. He is wildly imposing and is tough to defeat on the routes he does run, which appear to generally be the most basic Go and Comeback routes. He is a load to deal with and will be quite a weapon on back-shoulder fades with his thick body. Metcalf should be a fine red-zone force and deep threat, and those players tend to go early in drafts.
Metcalf, #14 took the very first snap from scrimmage to the end zone on a deep “go” against Alabama. The speed, balance, and catch radius were all on display.
Concerns: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, so some won’t be discouraged by any of this. You have the production issue; he only accumulated 1,228 yards in three college seasons. You have two seasons shortened with campaign-ending injuries; 2016 and 2018. Neither seems to have hampered his future, but medical tests will be essential. You also have some very disturbing 3-cone drill numbers which might suggest his short-area change-of-direction skills will be an issue. Finally, he has demonstrated no variance in his route tree whatsoever. This has been explained away as a product of the Ole Miss scheme; apparently, Metcalf was doing what was asked of him. But if you are looking for a guy who can run any route, I would have some concerns about Metcalf’s fit. His 3-cone time might suggest he is best as a straight-line guy.
Overall: Metcalf has what the NFL loves. He’s a slightly smaller version of Calvin Johnson. If you compare to Megatron in any way, you are going to have teams pretty excited. At the same time, a physical marvel like him can often get over-drafted. Not all combine monsters put up numbers like Megatron. I’ll assign him a LATE FIRST-SECOND ROUND grade, which appears to be lower than most. I just have too many questions about his profile.
Metcalf’s size and strength should make him a red-zone terror for any corner who must deal with him one on one.
Kelvin Harmon — NC State — 6’2— 221 – 4.6 40
Harmon was very prolific in the ACC, with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons after no NC State receiver had even one since 2003. His overall statistical performance suggested he is awfully accomplished. Born in Liberia and relocated to the United States at four years old, Harmon is yet another receiver who possesses some very impressive size and strength for his position.
(Statistics courtesy Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Harmon is a large, physical receiver who is an absolute back-shoulder fade machine and possesses the natural abilities to box out his man in tight quarters. He will block downfield all day and is very strong. He gets his hands to the ball and works the sideline well. He should have no problem as a red-zone threat and a downfield guy, too. There may be concerns about his long speed, but I am not too worried overall. He can run slants all day and cross the face of defensive backs to give his quarterback a huge target. He can run out of the slot or outside and may not be a toolsy player, but I think he has a real knack for understanding and playing his position in a fundamentally sound way. Harmon exudes all sorts of positives.
Harmon gets a good release and then beats his man to a deep ball over the top against Syracuse where he did this all day long.
Concerns: The primary issue is very simple: Harmon did not test at a very high level and no other position causes as many problems for those who do not demonstrate elite athleticism. His 40, his vertical and his 3-cone were all disappointing and therefore he lacks the twitch and suddenness that teams really value. He isn’t a bad athlete, but he isn’t a special one either.
Overall: There are two types of draft people; those who value physical freaks and those who like technicians. We prefer that our players demonstrate both, but most fail in one of the two categories. Do you trust the tape? I do, and therefore I think Harmon has plenty to offer the NFL. He catches the ball really well and has plenty of confidence. I think I would take him over Metcalf, which probably puts me in a stark minority. I give him a similar late FIRST-SECOND ROUND grade.
Harmon wins with his ability to create his own space, almost like a tight end. He is very productive and most of that comes from strength.
N’Keal Harry — Arizona State — 6’2 — 228 – 4.53 40
Harry hails from Toronto, then St. Vincent and the Grenadines and finally a fantastic career at Arizona State where he was a First-Team All-Pac 12 receiver for two straight seasons before declaring for the NFL as a Junior. Harry had a very solid combine showing and joins the ranks of very large men at the top of the wide receiver heap.
(Statistics courtesy Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Harry does many things well, and let’s start with his proficient route running. He’s the type of player who can be a factor both downfield and as a quick screen threat. He gets great positioning and leverage to win his routes and present himself open, and also toys with overmatched corners down the field as he is able to win aerial battles with routine. He executes some double moves that are a real issue and can get vertical from the slot as well. He is a real load and can break tackles with the ball in his hands. He works the middle of the field with a punishing style.
Harry (#1) is a very strong and rugged competitor with attitude across the middle with great YAC skills.
Concerns: The biggest issue is probably his short-area quickness and lack of electric acceleration. There were also a few games in which I was concerned with what appeared to be inconsistent catch skills. I would have like to have seen more red-zone production.
Overall: Guys who play with this disposition and determination are very attractive to my amateur scouting eyes and Harry is just fun to watch in that regard. We should be careful mentioning Dez Bryant’s name when discussing every physical receiver of a certain size, but I saw some of that here. I really like this player and have no problem placing him high in the SECOND ROUNDand wondering if he belongs earlier.
Sometimes he has moves, other times Ferrell (#99) just decides to channel Reggie White and bull-rush his guy right into the QB.
AJ Brown — Mississippi — 6’0 — 226 – 4.49 40
Brown holds the distinction of being the top wide receiver prospect on Brugler’s in-season list and therefore was a player front and center on our radar for quite a while. He also holds the distinction of being a wonderful two-sport prospect, as a 2016 San Diego Padres draft pick who wowed the baseball world with his work as an outfielder. That said, he has chosen football and had no problem being First-Team All-SEC in both of his last two seasons.
(Statistics courtesy Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Unlike his teammate Metcalf, Mississippi would use Brown all over the field. He was especially effective as a huge slot threat, where he could use his extraordinary tools to take over the middle of the field. He provides a very big target and gets open near the line of scrimmage while proving elusive underneath. Brown also can work on deeper routes from the slot and turn upfield with a strong release and very nice route running. He gets open. He is also slippery outside on quick screens and will block plenty down the field. He can play as an outside receiver as well with no problems and is just a strong, physical player with good hands and quick-strike capabilities. I really think he has a wide array of strong attributes.
Brown (#1) will work the middle of the field and find plenty of yards after the catch. He is physical and full of ambition.
Concerns: Aside from the outside chance that he decides to pursue baseball again, I would say my only issues with him appear to be the occasional drop that results from not locking in on each ball and also a small reputation for lollygagging when the ball is not coming his way. As you can tell, though, this is all a bit nitpicky and surely easy to overcome.
Overall: Brown checks every box you are looking for in a wide receiver. He runs a full route tree and has a versatile skill set, has all the physical tools and is as accomplished as a receiver will get, as he set school records in 2018 at almost every receiving category. He can play slot or on the outside and I think he has a very nice career ahead of him. I am comfortable awarding him a FIRST-ROUND GRADE and placing him atop my list.
Brown can do many things well with several of them on display on this snap against Auburn.
Marquise Brown — Oklahoma — 5’9 — 166 – No 40 time
“Hollywood” Brown is one of the most unique prospects in this draft for a number of reasons. He is an electric player who has dominated college football on one of the most terrifying offenses in football the last two seasons, catching passes from two different Heisman-winning quarterbacks. Despite this absurd production, he has a few significant concerns, starting with a build that is nothing short of tiny and a recent foot injury that was defined as the dreaded Lisfranc fracture.
(Statistics courtesy Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: You would be hard-pressed to find a receiver in college football who kept defenses up at night quite like Brown did over the last two seasons. He has the ability to be that all-purpose weapon that teams seek; a player who can play in the backfield with end arounds, jet sweeps and quick screens, or beat defenses over the top with home run attempts. Brown runs good routes, varying speeds and using double moves. He uses that popular over-route from the opposite side that is all the rage in the NFL. He is competitive at the catch and can simply get behind every defender. Many analysts see similarities to Desean Jackson and there is no question that is the model. Heck, he is even willing to stick his nose in and block when the situation arises.
Brown can take very harmless passes and turn them into house calls with great and easy routine.
Concerns: The man was so small in high school that he received no scholarship offers at all and had to go to junior college. He then gained some weight and worked his way to big-time college football, but still arrived at the combine well under 170 pounds. Speed is his calling card and now he has a foot injury that has brought other men down a level.
Overall: Sometimes you have to trust your eyes. In a sport where Tyreek Hill, DeSean Jackson and Tarik Cohen have shown us that size doesn’t matter much as long as you are brave and durable, I am going to follow their lead. Brown is easily the smallest receiver in this group, but also easily the biggest playmaker. And that’s the actual goal in today’s game. I need to see his medicals come through clean because a chronic foot condition could change everything. But for now, let’s give him a FIRST-SECOND ROUND grade. If his foot checks out, though, Brown is going in the first without question.
Hollywood shows you here that despite his size, he is a terror in the secondary and everything today’s NFL is seeking.
My Week 5 stack looks like this:
As an added bonus this year, I wanted to share some older profiles for grins. Keep in mind that these are done well before the players are selected, so this was my view after watching 200 snaps of each prospect.
This week, it seemed appropriate to review the 2015 report on Amari Cooper.
Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama – 6’1, 211 – Junior – 4.42 40
As the trend for teams taking running backs in the draft has done nothing but diminish over the years, the trends for wide receivers has gone in the opposite direction. It used to be rather rare for many receivers to be selected early in the draft, but in 2014 we saw 10 gone by pick #56. That means, of course, if you wait until the middle of Round 2 to get your guy, you are choosing from the ninth or 10th-best WR on the board.
The good news, though, is that because of the way football has evolved, it sure seems like the 10th and 12th-best receivers each year are still NFL-caliber and often quite impressive. Routinely, about a dozen WRs are now going in the Top 100, and 2015 will certainly get us to that number with relative ease. On almost every list, Amari Cooper is thought of as the best of the bunch. To see if I agreed, I grabbed a number of games, but locked down on Alabama’s matchups against Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, and West Virginia. Cooper wears #9.
What I liked: Cooper is fantastic in almost every regard. He has tremendous hands and long speed that puts him in a class of receivers that can run the entire route tree from just about any spot. He is great as an outside threat with comebacks, crosses and go-routes, but is a really strong underneath threat from the slot as well. Once he hits the jets, he is off to the races with no hope of the opposition tracking him down. He is a dominant receiver who wins in the air and can be flat-out dominant down in the red zone. I have no problem saying this guy resembles Dez Bryant in many ways; he’s a beast who can beat you in a number of ways. Cooper is nearly impossible to jam and has feet that seem to knock a corner off balance if they dare play press-man against him.
What I did not like: Like everyone, I have to wonder why the drops occur when they do. He has great hands and technique most of the time, but perhaps from sheer volume or a lack of concentration, he sometimes loses sight of the ball. He also doesn’t always appear convicted about blocking, but as you can see directly below, when he is interested, he can really dominate a defensive back on a block inside. Beyond that, I have nothing but compliments.
Summary: When you take a wide receiver in the top five, he had better have superstar possibilities and a very high floor. Cooper has been so productive already, with 3,500 yards in three years at Alabama, and now is ready to take his awesome production to the next level. He played at the highest level of college football and it generally looked like he was too good for that level and capable of being the first WR to win the Heisman Trophy in years. That said, he fell just short, but it would take quite an upset for Cooper not to be the first receiver off the board. He is just too versatile and excellent in so many regards. He can beat opponents underneath or over the top, against man or against zone, against off coverage or against tight, and is not averse to contact. In fact, he occasionally will be called for being too physical himself. He is really an impressive player; a dominant prospect and a No. 1 receiver for years to come.
Next up: More wide receivers; those closer to the range of the Cowboys’ Day 2 picks.
PREVIOUS VOLUMES AND PROSPECTS:
Vol. 1: Edge Rushers. Josh Allen, Kentucky — Brian Burns. Florida State — Clelin Ferrell, Clemson — Jachai Polite. Florida — Montez Sweat, Mississippi State
Vol. 2: Defensive Tackles. Quinnen Williams, Kentucky — Christian Wilkins, Clemson — Ed Oliver, Houston — DreMont Jones, Ohio State — Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi State.
Vol. 3: Tight Ends. T.J. Hockenson, Iowa — Noah Fant, Iowa — Irv Smith, Alabama —Jace Sternberger, Texas A&M — Kaden Smith, Stanford
Vol 4: Defensive Line: Nick Bosa, Ohio State – Rashan Gary, Michigan – Dexter Lawrence, Clemson – Zach Allen, Boston College – D’Andre Walker, Georgia