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By Bob Sturm Mar 5, 2020
Each week during the buildup to the NFL Draft, as has been our tradition since 2012, we will take a look at five of the key prospects at a given positional group. The hope is to cover what we perceive as the very best players in this spring’s draft, as well as the Dallas Cowboys’ positions of greatest need in the first three rounds, using about 200 snaps of the most recent college tape from each of the prospects. I am certainly not an NFL scout, but I have found over the years that much can be learned from giving each player a couple of hours and really studying how he might fit at the next level. With a little luck, we will be plenty familiar with the options when the draft arrives in late April.
Today is the sixth week of a scheduled 12-week program in which we attempt to familiarize you with the 60 most important names in this draft process. That, of course, is a very subjective statement, but I hope you will agree that assessing things from a Dallas Cowboys perspective, then adding in relevant local products and, of course, the top five quarterbacks in this draft will give us a pretty good handle on things by the end of April. We are trying, first and foremost, to stick to our original list of “most likely” Cowboys needs in this 2020 offseason. That is a moving target, especially with free agency about to add or subtract from this list, but as of now, we are still thinking it looks like this (in some order):
- Safety
- Defensive tackle
- Defensive end/edge rusher
- Cornerback
- Tight end
- Wide receiver
Regardless, last week we covered five very well-known edge rushers. This week, we’re grabbing five who have a little less buzz, but are widely thought of as top-100 prospects (first three rounds).
Before we get too far into the 2020 crop, let’s look at other times the Cowboys have grabbed an edge rusher in Round 1 since Jerry Jones has owned the team. There have been six instances in those last three decades where the team went looking for sacks with their first pick.
DeMarcus Ware is the standout player among this group, as he was one of the NFL’s premier pass-rushers for a long time and anchored some underrated Cowboys defenses. Overall, however, there are mixed results here. By any measure, Greg Ellis was a great success. I know he will always have Randy Moss hanging on his resume, but that shouldn’t allow us to lose focus of what an excellent and productive player he truly was. Beyond that, Anthony Spencer had a few very good years while Ebenezer Ekuban and Marcus Spears were both fine professionals but certainly not productive enough to feel like big success stories that high in the draft. And, finally, Shante Carver and Taco Charlton were massive disappointments for the Cowboys draft room. I wasn’t around for the 1994 draft but spent much of the 2017 draft season advising they steer clear of Charlton, to no avail.
Prices drop on Day 2 guys, so the level of expectation should drop a bit, too. Here are the four Round 2 and 3 edge players the Cowboys have taken in three decades. And if you are wondering, yes, that seems like a very small number, and the team has probably under-invested in this segment of their roster if they only average a Day 2 edge about once every seven or eight years.
The Cowboys’ track record here is quite good, though. Kavika Pittman stands next to Shante Carver on the big-time miss list, but other than that, most players would love to have the careers of Jason Hatcher, Tyrone Crawford or DeMarcus Lawrence. Randy Gregory has dealt with his own issues, but has flashed plenty of talent when on the field. Lawrence is the only player of the three who has flirted with “elite” status over the years, but the other two had excellent careers with many years as full-time starters, with both being versatile enough to play outside or inside on the defensive line.
In total, seven of the 10 players the Cowboys have taken in Rounds 1-3 on the edge since 1990 became at least solid starters for four years or more. Greg Ellis and DeMarcus Lawrence were both much better than that and received league-wide honors (Anthony Spencer and Jason Hatcher joined them at Pro Bowls, too). So while the Cowboys have probably under-invested, they have at least been hitting doubles when they do.
That said, you can always use a clear home run to really help this defense take the next step.
Let’s check these five young prospects to see if one might be available in that Day 2 (Rounds 2/3) crop.
In alphabetical order, they are:
Bradlee Anae — Utah — 6’3 — 257
The Hawaiian has four seasons and nearly 40 college games under his belt, was named to the All Pac-12 first team on two occasions and even cracked the 2019 All-American team with an extremely productive senior season. He now owns the all-time Utah sack record, as he broke Hunter Dimick’s record of 29.5 with his 30th sack at the Alamo Bowl versus Texas. But he had a uneven NFL combine workout and has to answer some questions about his shortfalls a bit here in the buildup to Las Vegas.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: There are some real impressive positives about Anae’s tape as he really reminds me of what we saw for years from Clay Matthew. His violent combination at the snap of a huge get-off and then top-notch hand usage puts him in an awful lot of backfields and advantageous situations to make splash plays. He is ready for each play and then looks shot out of a cannon and employs a spin, a push/pull and a swipe like a veteran edge. He plays every down and really gets after it, and he can also be seen popping inside on occasion to isolate against overmatched guards. He’s a twitchy player in short spaces and looks like his disposition is right on the edge, too. He can really get your attention. He also buries his needle in the red with high RPM motor traits, which any successful edge needs.
Concerns: The USC game, which I used for both clips, was the first game I watched. It was magnificent, but Anae was substantially quieter in the subsequent three I looked at. His traits include very short arms for his position and a disappointing 40-time/vertical leap. His explosive trait testing did not match the twitch we saw on tape. This leads many to believe he may already be at his ceiling and could be a very nice NFL player, but perhaps not better than average. He also is a bit undersized for direct runs and, like Matthews, can be attacked to slow him down over the course of the game. Anae seems like a player who will take the occasional personal foul, as he has some real borderline hits.
Overall: He is the type of player who makes enough plays at a high enough level behind the line of scrimmage that I will proceed with some level of caution, but this is when you probably need to trust that tape and see what he is capable of. He probably fits best as a nickel pass rusher and/or a 3-4 outside edge, but I can definitely see this as an option around that No. 51 pick in Round 2. It is very possible I am on a bit of an island on this one but I ended up giving him a SECOND-ROUND grade, and while I retain a few concerns, I still really like his resume.
Jonathan Greenard — Florida — 6’3 — 263
Greenard is coming off a tremendous 2019 after he transferred in as a graduate to Florida after playing several seasons for Louisville. He enrolled in Gainsville last January and ended up making so many plays for the Gators defense that he was named first-team All-SEC and likely has pushed himself right into a great spot in the NFL Draft. His combine was also a series of mixed results, but his tape suggests he will be a force to be reckoned with at the next level.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: This player can be a real load off the edge, and he is aggressive and relentless in his play. He has great pursuit and seems plenty athletic in space. Greenard has excellent arm length, and this allows him to really manipulate blockers and work his way through traffic well. He is ready to rumble all day and appears to be a high-intensity player who will get in your face. He seems equally proficient against both the run and pass, and he also has the size to probably be OK in a number of schemes and situations. He plays full-time snaps, and really sets up tackles off the snap and becomes a handful, to say the least. I am a big fan.
Concerns: I will tell you that my biggest concern about Greenard is another question about whether his testing exposes some ordinary traits as we translate to the next level. I am not a huge “combine guy” when it comes to test scores over tape, but this particular position of edge rusher does require a very high level of athleticism to become elite at the next level. I think his moderate bench-press scores and vertical leap suggest he might be in the “less than elite” class as an athlete, but, again, his tape is so good. I just don’t know if he has the burst that is required to get to that top class. He is also going to be 23 by training camp, so he might be at his ceiling.
Overall: I think this is my favorite study of this week, and I was tempted to push him up even higher than I ended up, but I must admit there are some questions to navigate around. I think I see a Brandon Graham type who might be more of a solid defensive end than a huge sack guy. But there is nothing wrong with Brandon Graham, so if he gets to that level, someone is going to be very happy. I think I will carefully offer him a SECOND-ROUND grade, but at the very top of that. If he sneaks into the top 40 picks, I have no issue whatsoever with it.
Khalid Kareem — Notre Dame — 6’4 — 268
Kareem was originally an Alabama commit back in his signing year of 2015 but switched to Notre Dame and has grown into a force on their defensive line. He also became a player who was well-regarded with captain makeup and ended up on watchlists for a number of different college awards and honors in 2019.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: There are a few things about Kareem that quickly jump off the tape at you, and it all starts him being a very big man who will continue to get bigger. His hands and arms are at the top of his positional range. When you have a big edge who is built like that, he has an advantage over his peers simply with his ability to control the edge and often the man across from him. He is a classic LDE who is better as a run stopper, but there are some moments when he shows you what he can be as an edge rusher. Then, suddenly you can squint and see something very impressive in his future. He is technically sound and has the ability to get low and not give up any leverage despite his size. I know this might not sound complimentary, but he can be solid and strong, which does have value. In other words, he is perhaps more of a “high floor, low ceiling” type.
Concerns: The concerns are primarily that most of his tape is underwhelming, and he looks like an athlete who does not have NFL-level explosion, nor a motor that goes forever. This combination can still make a real impact in the NFL for years, but it is just not something you look for high in the draft. He seems to be a plodding edge and does not change directions with the desired twitch. He also didn’t make a ton of plays in the backfield like we seek. He gets stuck on blocks and just left us wanting more. He did not work out at the Combine, so we need to see him test before we get carried away.
Overall: Some players are projections, and some are not. I think Kareem could develop into something more than he is, but most players of his ilk seem to remain in that “solid to average” status which every roster needs. From there, it is a matter of what we are paying for that, and in this particular case, I would assign a SECOND-THIRD-ROUND grade that probably puts him in the No. 50 to No. 75 range of players. There is nothing wrong with solid, as every roster needs it. But we are seeking higher upsides than he has shown to this point.
Terrell Lewis — Alabama — 6’5 — 262
Lewis is probably a perfect example of a player to follow Kareem and Greenard because they are opposites in so many ways. Those players played a ton at the college level and were productive, but certain traits suggested some concerns about how well their games will translate to Sundays. Lewis is the exact opposite in that he is fully a traits projection who has barely played at the college level, yet he checks the boxes for what NFL teams are seeking in many regards. He tore a ligament in 2017 and then tore his ACL in 2018 before playing most of 2019 and splashing well on to the scene for the Crimson Tide.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Lewis has freakish ability and has unreal lateral movement skills. He carries his body like he’s 240 pounds, but Lewis weighs in at 262 and seems like he could easily get to 270. These are monster traits that make you imagine monster possibilities. He also has extremely long arms as well as a vertical leap and broad jump that all just scream “athletic freak.” His speed rushes off the edge are quite convincing, and he gets to the passer with violence. He is insanely twitched up and has some rush reps that are just fantastic. He has a spin in his pass rush moves that is so good. He has great bend and can get very low. He can really flash and make some plays. He is still just 21 years old, and there is a real chance that there is a special player in here when everything clicks.
Concerns: There are many. I would start by being very disappointed with how many times his instincts seemed to betray him on tape. He is flatfooted as he tries to read the play and find the ball, and it all passes him by. If you do not have a super-high football IQ, then all your twitch and ability remain too slow because you don’t recognize the play fast enough with your mind. This was a consistent issue. He also missed a ton of time, and that is scary for durability projections. His motor was just OK, and as impressive as he seems to be, we must be certain we aren’t overpaying for his YouTube highlight tape. Just not enough consistency to see more than a project here.
Overall: This might be the most complex evaluation I have found in 2020 because I can absolutely make the case for him at both a very high level and a very low level, and it sort of depends on which tape you just watched. I am reminded of other Alabama edge rushers who had all the traits and explosion but never were able to impact Sundays very much. But if he figures it out, he can be dominant. Are you willing to go all-in on a guy with 14 college games and poor instincts/reads? My answer is an unconvincing SECOND-ROUND grade — a lower one than Greenard and Anae, for sure.
Curtis Weaver — Boise State — 6’3 — 265
Weaver is another prospect from that Boise State football factory and was the defensive player of the year in the Mountain West Conference after logging just tremendous stats in all three years on the blue turf after redshirting in 2016. He then decided to turn to the draft with one year of eligibility remaining and has been a consistent name through the Senior Bowl and this draft season.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: It is not hard to find the positives when someone was responsible for 47.5 tackles for loss and 34 sacks in 40 college games. This type of productivity is often the first reference point to find players who might translate to the next level. He plays an awful lot of stand-up edge in the Boise 30 fronts, and they actually have him drop plenty into coverage as more of an outside linebacker versus a straight edge rusher. He has really good versatility, as they played him all over the place and you could see competence throughout. He has very solid hands and looks well-schooled in how to use them to enhance his ability in pass-rushing situations. He also has good power in his technique and finds the ball. He can make up for some issues with power and motor, but will that be enough?
Concerns: Much like the others on this list, it generally starts with just not seeing anything too far above average as an athlete and also seeing the level of competition against which he was getting a large part of his overall production. He certainly doesn’t appear very explosive, and he doesn’t really fly off the ball. He gets stuck on blocks, and he can’t really turn in space. He gets flatfooted on his reads, and his reaction time is less than great. I just didn’t see a player I expect to overwhelm offensive linemen in the NFL, and I feel his limitations might grow at the next level. He is a nice roster player, but again, it is all about the sticker price.
Overall: For all of the buzz I have heard about him, I felt like maybe I was watching the wrong games. I just didn’t see as much as my colleagues appear to like, and therefore I do not value him on that same level. I want to be clear with some of these players I am down on: it is all relative. These are all candidates for Rounds 1-3 and, therefore, they are all accomplished players who should be on NFL rosters. We are just trying to sort out to what degree, and I don’t think I would be interested in Weaver until Round 3. He absolutely can help you, but I can’t give him anything higher than a THIRD-ROUND grade.
My Week 6 Edge Rusher stack looks like this:
