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By Bob Sturm
46m ago
I hope you read my reviews about the brilliant play-action passes in the Cowboys’ Monday Night Football win against the Giants. Now, if you want to fight with a lot of football analytical minds, just toss out the topic of whether you need a running game for play-action to work. This is not the only issue regarding analytics that offers a good battle. Also try: Are sacks allowed a stat for the offensive line or the QB? … But, it is definitely a good place to start.
The debate is whether a series of good runs in a game or a season cause defenders to lose their focus on the passing game because they cannot allow another run up the gut or have they been playing football for so many years that even a horrid running game still gets the same reaction from a defender because it is programmed into his head when he sees a potential handoff (like a dog seeing a squirrel).
Basically, if I word it differently, it is the debate of whether you actually need to be good at running the ball to get optimal results to run-fake passes. Many modernists believe there is actually no proof that great results set better traps. The belief in the analytical wing of football theory is that there is no relationship. My friends at Football Outsiders have studied this and tried to find proof, but instead could not find anything “for the success of play-action passing being related in any way to a team’s rushing statistics, whether measured by frequency or effectiveness.”
I can tell you that the Dallas Cowboys do not believe that. In fact, it could be one of those many things where people inside the NFL game have ingrained beliefs and those outside the game want tangible proof (i.e., does momentum actually exist?) to buy in. Neither side can get anyone on the other side to budge and therefore these things seldom get resolved. I have always erred on the side of “football people”, but I also am analytical-minded in many ways. Call me a centrist because there are issues where I anger both sides.
Anyway, enough about me and this winding journey to start today, but let’s get to the issues at hand. The Cowboys had their best play-action day in a long time and the stats verify that most of Cooper Rush’s productivity Monday night was because of that.
Look at his final numbers and keep in mind there was a 48-yard, play-action touchdown dropped, too:
• Play-action: 11-15, 158 yards, 107 rating, 10.6 YPA
• No play-action: 10-16, 57 yards, 89 rating, 3.6 YPA
This brings us back to the Cowboys’ central plan. We discussed in the summer that Dallas is determined to fix its running game. The belief was that its late-season slump can be traced back to the fact that they were absolutely awful running the ball. The Cowboys were 31st in first-down running after Week 9 with a poorly balanced attack they believed made teams drop more zone defenders to stop the pass. If you can’t run, then opponents were making the passing game difficult and you have nothing left.
It felt a bit wishful thinking, but they were making it an objective to overhaul the No. 1 offense by allowing outside weapons to walk. The belief they had — which is absolutely a core belief of Mike McCarthy going back to Green Bay, but also appeals to the Jones’ family memories of the Cowboys dynasty — is that everything is manipulated by the balance of both 12 personnel and a threatening running game.
If you can control the line of scrimmage, everything downfield opens up quickly.
It is way too early to say if they are absolutely right, but Monday night at least offered a nice chunk of evidence to verify they aren’t dummies. With two big running game tackles anchoring this front and two rookie tight ends who can hold their own, too, the Cowboys seemed to be chewing things up beautifully. Also, when Tony Pollard is getting his proper workload, we must credit a stubborn franchise with progress. When you run the ball 30 times for 5.9 yards a carry, hit on five runs of 10 or more yards and two of more than 25, you are cooking. Then, when you have an amazing play-action passing game on first downs when the opponents are busy dealing with your front pushing them around, you are back in control of the chess match.
It is a story of Rush, but it is also a story about the solutions to the 2021 problems all going back to handing off the ball and getting a quick 5 yards instead of a demoralizing loss of 2.
Will the Cowboys be able to do it most weeks? Were the Giants an easy mark with Leonard Williams not playing? We will know more in the upcoming weeks.
Data box, Week 3: at New York Giants
So many good things to see. The 6.4 yards per play is superb and off the charts for a game with a backup quarterback. For context, the Kansas City Chiefs led the NFL last season at 6.1 yards per play. Overall, Dallas was near 400 yards, controlled the clock, did not commit a turnover and really did a nice job.
We have to be careful to understand that you require some compliance from your opponent to get results like this — can you play the Giants every week? — but, you play to win the game you are playing and the Cowboys did it quite well.
Next Gen throw chart: Cooper Rush
We certainly are not here to take anything away from Rush’s performance, because he could have easily had 300 yards if a few more plays were made when throws were there. But, this game was different than the win against the Bengals when he had to throw the ball down the field much more or Dallas wasn’t going to win. This was way more QB-friendly and he simply followed a very safe and smart recipe. I would say that the Bengals’ win was a QB win and this win was more of the offensive coordinator and game plan if I offered specific credits.
Next Gen QB splits
This is not all play-action, but this shows you where the QB made his money Monday. If you see big numbers from shotgun, then it is a passing performance where the defenses were sitting pass and couldn’t stop him. This was more from under center, where the Cowboys sent the message that the run game is coming your way. Get ready and then the trap is set. Look at 4.88 yards per attempt out of passing looks and 9.43 yards per pass attempt from a balanced look. The evidence is clear.
Personnel groupings
Look at all the multiple tight end plays and remember starting tight end Dalton Schultz, who has the $11 million franchise tag, was not playing. This is quite a development when the running game is benefiting from the offensive line, but also Jake Ferguson, Peyton Hendershot, and yes, de facto TE Noah Brown in there nailing dudes, too. This is a good running game right now.
Let’s prove it by looking at the big runs and a pass off of it in the film study.
Film study
First quarter – 14:27 – first-and-10 – Dal 40 – T.Pollard left end pushed ob at NYG 46 for 14 yards
I want the world to know that I was wrong about Tyler Smith (73). Someday, I will share all of the information that led me down the path of his poor dossier from Tulsa, but I was reminded again this week that college tape is not in any way a promise of what happens in the NFL. It can tell you some things, but it cannot tell you how badly a guy wants to improve and how much great instruction he might be receiving for the first time in his life. I cannot explain the difference between Tulsa Tyler Smith and this rookie who is destroying things. The Cowboys show you Ezekiel Elliott (21) in the backfield and bring Pollard (20) around the edge in motion. Remember this concept, because this is the first run of the game and Smith gets in space and the Giants did not want to deal with that. Also, notice that Brown (85) and CeeDee Lamb (88) are getting their blocks to get the play started where big No. 73 can pull around and wreck stuff.
Second quarter – 11:11 – first-and-10 – Dal 37 – T.Pollard left tackle to NYG 17 for 46 yards
This play is Jason Peters’ first play as a Cowboy at left guard. The Cowboys line up Pollard to run between Smith and Peters with the strength of the formation — and most of the defense on the right side. Look at multiple tight ends right and how the Giants do not have enough guys on the left. Then see Smith and Peters open a window. From there, Pollard is doing serpentine on the safety and he is off for 46 yards. What a great moment in the banana stand.
Second quarter – 5:10 – third-and-12 – Dal 37 – E.Elliott left end to DAL 48 for 27 yards
This play requires the banana stand as well as it shows Ferguson and Lamb pinning down and Smith out in front of Elliott down the left side on third-and-12. This is an interesting play because the Giants want to blitz the house here and the Cowboys get them outflanked. You won’t run for many first downs on third-and-12, but this is a great call into what the Giants were doing, which is what game planning is all about.
Fourth quarter – 13:04 – first-and-10 – Dal 26 – T.Pollard up the middle to DAL 36 for 10 yards
Into the fourth quarter and this was a nice run with Brown as the lead blocker. But, I show you this because there is a moment in this run when Micah McFadden (41) beats Terence Steele (78) to the hole and Pollard is probably stopped. That moment is right here:
This is where either your running back can make a guy miss in the hole or he cannot. Pollard jukes McFadden and goes right up the hash for a 10-yard gain. This is the wiggle you need and Pollard has it in big fashion. Props to the team for getting him out there on nearly a 50/50 job share which is the minimum he should be used at this point.
Fourth quarter – 9:21 – first-and-10 – NY 27 – C.Rush pass short left to C.Lamb to NYG 1 for 26 yards
This is fantastic design because it harkens back to the first play of this film study when Pollard’s pre-snap movement is what the Giants see. He is the eye candy and if you can orbit him around Rush and circle him back left, the Giants know that Lamb and Brown are his blockers and that they are feeding Pollard. No, this is a trap. Lamb is not actually blocking Darnay Holmes (30), but slipping past him for a pass into the flat. Again, first-and-10 play-action ambush off designs you used earlier. This game is the best Kellen Moore has looked in a while. Well done.
Fourth quarter – 3:32 – second-and-7 – Dal 28 – T.Pollard right guard to DAL 38 for 10 yards
Finally, this is the last run for a first down in the 4-minute drill. Ferguson gets two players and Smith pulls around in traffic. Two rookies leading your running game is a symbolic way to end this game and study.
The Cowboys targeted a better blocking tight end and a few better run blocking linemen to fix their offense. It was not widely reviewed in real-time and I am guilty of underestimating the effects. We need to see this for more than a week or two, but the Cowboys are 2-1 with both wins behind Rush leading a balanced and effective offense. They are staying out of bad third-down situations when they need a star quarterback to make magic. Instead, the Cowboys are on schedule and efficient. Can this hold up?
We shall continue tracking their progress here.