Sturm: Could Kellen Moore leave the Cowboys? What’s next if he does? Decoding Kellen

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,695



By Bob Sturm Dec 29, 2020

Very few could have honestly expected the performance we saw on Sunday from this Cowboys passing game.

In spite of that, the game ended with us knowing exactly what we’d already known going in: It pays to have a quarterback.

I don’t mean Pat Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers. Of course that pays. But the difference in the two games versus Philadelphia is starting Ben DiNucci and rolling out Andy Dalton. The Eagles defense has a few different parts, but for the most part, you are taking out a backup QB in his first-ever NFL action and replacing him with a guy who has more career starts than Tony Romo. And in Week 8, DiNucci had Zack Martin, Tyler Biadasz and Cam Erving upfront. On Sunday, Dalton had Brandon Knight, Joe Looney and Connor McGovern.

How did that turn out? Take a look at their respective production — and this is with the Cowboys running 10 more passing plays with DiNucci under center.



The fact is, with the same head coach, offensive coordinator and personnel, the Cowboys could have had easily their best passing day of the season and probably the worst passing day of their season against the same rival, defensive coordinator and approach.

Football is a wild game.

The passing day was so phenomenal that it should ensure Andy Dalton will get plenty of love on the free-agent market as this spring’s Teddy Bridgewater, a player who will get mid-tier QB1 money to be a two- or three-year fix at the position. He is too smart, experienced and capable to not start for someone who doesn’t have a top-15 to top-20 quarterback. And there are a lot of franchises who don’t have someone better than Andy Dalton.

In fact, his performance on Sunday is amongst the greatest Cowboys QB passing days ever. Here is the list of Dallas quarterbacks who have thrown for at least 350 yards with a passer rating of 130 or higher:
  • Don Meredith vs Philadelphia, Oct 10, 1966
  • Roger Staubach vs Baltimore, Sept 26, 1976
  • Tony Romo vs Denver, Oct 6, 2013
  • Dak Prescott vs New York, Sept 8, 2019
  • Andy Dalton vs Philadelphia, Dec 27, 2020
Yes, it was that rare a performance. (And, yes, Romo lost his game to Peyton Manning and the Broncos, 51-48. The other four were all wins with various levels of comfort.)
Fletcher Cox’s absence didn’t help the Eagles, but it seems their secondary is always in shambles this time of year. The tradition of a Cowboys receiver lighting an Eagles substandard defensive back on fire is as old as time.

Remember Dez Bryant versus Bradley Fletcher, December 2014?

Amari Cooper versus De’Vante Bausby, December 2018?

Well, please meet Everyone versus Michael Jacquet, December 2020.

It is so hard to play in the NFL, and we should have high regard for anyone who can put on a jersey for even a day. But, my friends, the others in this league are always going to confirm your quality the moment they don’t know who you are or what you can do.

Jacquet is a player I was not very familiar with in the run-up to this game. He is a young man born in Beaumont, Texas who played at Louisiana and went undrafted. That’s when the Eagles came calling. He did not make team but went to the practice squad and was elevated in Week 8 to play in the NFL for the very first time… against the Dallas Cowboys. In that game he played 30 snaps, and I don’t believe any of them were terribly memorable for neutral parties. I bet he will never forget that night.
He did not play again until Week 13 in Green Bay. And, as injuries continue to hammer the Eagles, he returned for Week 15 for the trip to Arizona. Darius Slay was out and, evidently, Philadelphia’s best idea was to put the undrafted rookie up against DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins dominated, and the QB rating against Jacquet that day was a nearly perfect 152.1

Vs Arizona – Week 15



Darius Slay was active for the trip to Dallas, but the Cowboys have several good wide receivers. None are quite as good as Hopkins, in my estimation, but they are all excellent. Slay could cover one of them and give them a handful, but the Cowboys should be able to find Jacquet if they made it a priority.

They clearly did.

Vs Dallas – Week 16



This time, the passer rating against was 155.8, which is even worse. Jacquet was targeted all day. When he was on Gallup, Dalton attacked. He switched to Cooper, and Dalton attacked again. Relentlessly.

It is a very tough league.

WEEKLY DATA BOX – Week 16 – PHILADELPHIA



Keep in mind that YPA here drops a bit for the sack yardage (the NFL keeps team stats differently than personal stats), but almost everything looks great aside from a rough day in the red zone and a poor interception in the third quarter which kept the score in some doubt. But once the running game joined in the fun and Ezekiel Elliott had probably his best day of the year, it was all over.

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS

If you read last week’s piece, you are ready for this data. If not, maybe you should.



The Cowboys’ recipe was to spread out the Eagles defense and start attacking the weak links. This is the textbook Mike McCarthy offense that he employed at his last stop repeatedly, but it is all common sense. There was a time with Jason Garrett’s offense when Dallas would not isolate and attack as much, but I think the NFL has changed that thinking to be ruthless when this rare chance arises.

ANDY DALTON NEXT-GEN THROW CHART



This shows you what Dalton can do. He made throws everywhere, and it just strikes you how composed he appears when lining up a play now that it seems he’s finally settled in. The concussion in Week 7 and a condensed training camp made us wait a long time to see the benefits of having Dalton on the roster, but the last six weeks should verify his ability and, of course, the absurd amounts of talent that this team has at wide receiver.



Let’s take a look at this very talented receiver group from Sunday:

NextGen Week 16 Cowboys Receivers



The Eagles had no chance, and the fact that they thought they could run man coverage was hilarious in so many ways. Almost nobody runs more Cover 1 than the Eagles — only the Lions, to be exact — and that is a fine identity, but there have to be situations when you call off the isolation ideas and play a team style of zone if one guy cannot handle his assignment. Still, Jim Schwartz seems to be one of those defensive minds who never takes too much heat for his unsound risk-taking. as Jonathan Vilma kept asking, “What is he supposed to do?” during the Fox broadcast. I might suggest not trying exotic fire zone blitzes with backup players. Maybe no Cover-0 blitz on third-and-short that gives Andy Dalton the easiest throw possible to CeeDee Lamb. Perhaps stop gambling with no cards in your hand. It seems like the coordinators should have the ability to stop calling unsound ideas if that is their job, but I digress.

This was a huge day for Michael Gallup, and he needed it. He is certainly going to be the team’s third-most talked-about receiver, but there is no reason he cannot become a bigger and bigger star as his career progresses.



I think Gallup’s year will look like a step back, but anyone examining the context of what he dealt with this year should know that this is an abnormality stemming from the loss of Dak Prescott.

Which leads us to today’s macro topic:

How big of a loss would Kellen Moore be?

What a strange trip it has been for young Kellen Moore. He is only 32 years old, and there is probably no reason he couldn’t still be an active player in the NFL as a backup QB who helps teach a hotshot rookie how to read defenses and understand what is happening all around him.

It felt like yesterday that we were told “Nick Foles isn’t an option” in 2016 training camp because Moore broke his leg a few weeks before Romo broke his back again. It was the most unlikely scenario imaginable, and it would lead Dak Prescott, a late fourth-round pick, to start his first NFL game in Week 1 of his rookie season. Just unreal.

Moore would actually be back in 2017 before joining the coaching staff in 2018 as a QB coach. He replaced Scott Linehan as offensive coordinator in 2019 and introduced many concepts and ideas to the Cowboys’ offense. Play-action was up, pre-snap motion and horizontal attacks were introduced and, yes, there was far more passing in neutral field-position spots.

The Cowboys offense started racking up production at a ridiculous rate. Dallas is ninth in scoring and first in total yardage during Moore’s 31 games as OC despite having Prescott for only 21 of those. All told, the Cowboys have produced an average of 404 yards per game in his two seasons at the helm with four different starting QBs. His offense works.

I say all this because I believe his time might be short in Dallas. Moore’s alma mater, Boise State, almost certainly will come calling for him to fill their newly vacant head coaching position after Bryan Harsin, Kellen’s own offensive coordinator and QB coach at Boise State, left for Auburn. That opens up the possibility that Moore will return to his people and run that entire program less than one decade since leaving it with a 50-3 career mark as their QB1.

Our own Jon Machota had plenty on his Twitter from Kellen’s public comments from Monday:


Followed by Jerry Jones’ thoughts:


That all seems to line up as a pretty clear indicator that the team wants this for Kellen.

Where will this leave the Cowboys? Well, probably back at the start with why they hired Mike McCarthy.

McCarthy was hired for his ability to run a tough, successful organization at his last spot with a specialty in offensive tactics. He certainly was on a roller coaster of perception during his time, but his offense never had real production issues until the very end of his tenure, when they appeared to lose their depth between the primes of Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams at wide receiver.

The Cowboys hired him because wanted an offensive mind who had won a lot to run things. Then, when McCarthy was hired, he approved Kellen Moore staying on.
It appears to have worked well, as every week I think this offense has some very solid attack ideas. Some succeed, and some don’t, but you don’t have to drill very deep to see Dallas is a well-coached team offensively. Heck, they have managed around their shambolic offensive line situation somewhat seamlessly since October. That alone is a credit to the coaching staff.

So, how much is Kellen Moore’s doing? Depending on how much you think McCarthy is a bad hire, it will range from “all of it” to “a little.” I think Moore is brilliant and have said so every week for a few years now. He is the best coordinator I have covered since I started tracking things here in 2008. He is on the cutting edge but still knows to not get too cute. Now, has he always had full authority with two offensive-minded head coaches? Highly doubtful.

The Cowboys should be fine, but he is a significant loss if he leaves. I assume they trust their head coach to either take more of a role or to get the help to do it under him. But I would prefer keeping Moore.

The thing is, how do you keep him from taking what could be his dream job that might not come along very often? You probably don’t. It isn’t about money. He can get that lots of places, and home is one of them.

Jerry said it: “The bottom line is, when it’s there, take it.”

I assume Moore will, and Boise would be getting a potentially great head coach who still looks like he is about 24 years old.

Life comes at you pretty fast.
 

mcnuttz

Senior Junior Mod
Staff member
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
15,667
I aint reading all that shit, but Dalton came back a different guy after the concussion.

Surely the late season stability on the OL helped, too.
 

UncleMilti

This seemed like a good idea at the time.
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
17,981
Lol. I see McCarthys fingerprints on this offense over the last 3-4 games. Moore is ok, but I disagree he’s going to be some titanic loss if he takes the Boise job.
 

boozeman

28 Years And Counting...
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
121,730
Lol. I see McCarthys fingerprints on this offense over the last 3-4 games. Moore is ok, but I disagree he’s going to be some titanic loss if he takes the Boise job.
We are not running a McCarthy offense.
 

UncleMilti

This seemed like a good idea at the time.
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
17,981
We are not running a McCarthy offense.
I didn’t say we were. But I’ve seen wrinkles in the passing game that are definitely GB era stuff.
 

P_T

Baddest MoFo Around
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
2,058
We'll be ok, but for what was a journeyman QB just two short years ago to be expected to take a program to the next level on the national stage...? That may be asking a bit much.
 

p1_

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 10, 2013
Messages
26,454
this appears moot now.
 

Clff15701

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 22, 2013
Messages
2,848
Moore is the least of our problems. We lost our QB, RT, LT and Kellen is still producing. The only concern I have with Kellen is he doesn't seem to know how to get Zeke going. Other than that he's done a fantastic job with the Wrs and play calling in general.
 
Top Bottom