Sturm: Checking in on the NFC East - Who is favored to challenge the Cowboys for division crown?

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm 1h ago

Allow me to share one of my summer projects in a piece today as I begin to sort through the rest of the NFC East and then ultimately the rest of the NFL to make sure all of the files are fully up to speed before we start the 2021 NFL season. For many, there is plenty of time between now and the NFL’s opening night in Tampa, Florida, and the Cowboys’ first battle of the season against the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers.

Dak Prescott’s return on a field against Tom Brady’s latest championship presentation in front of the entire nation and a stadium full of fans. It should be a glorious night and I would hope to be in that location on that night.

It is 77 days away — 11 weeks.

That puts us at roughly four weeks and 28 days until we head to California for the July 22 opening of Cowboys training camp in Oxnard, Calif. That number is far more menacing and anxiety-inducing for those of us who normally have a mountain of analysis and preparation in front of us. Sprinkle in a family vacation or so and the clock is already starting to make me nervous. It is good stuff, of course, but it is already nigh upon us.

I have tried to keep you informed on the Cowboys offseason and the fact that between this draft class and the return to health of so many of the Cowboys “Top 10” players (and earners), this should be a wildly different season than the one in 2020. The new coaching staff of the team that is either entering Year 2 (Mike McCarthy, etc) or Year 1 (Dan Quinn) is enjoying its first semi-normal offseason of preparation. By the time camp arrives in four weeks, they will be raring to go and aspire to put last year’s trainwreck in the rearview mirror.

Sportsbooks fully expect that to be the case if we look to the oddsmakers to tell us what neutral skepticism believes about the upcoming season.

No team from the NFC East is expected to do much in the Super Bowl picture, as Dallas has the best odds at a very mediocre 15th-best odds to win the Bowl at just +4,000.

Current Super Bowl Odds

TEAM
ODDS TO WIN SB 56
Dallas+4,000
Washington+5,000
New York Giants+8,000
Philadelphia+12,500

The oddsmakers love Tampa Bay again, San Francisco and the Los Angeles Rams, and somehow still fancy Green Bay pretty highly (which suggests that they think Aaron Rodgers will return, I assume?). Seattle also has more likely odds to factor into this Super Bowl than any team from this division — that is widely regarded as the weakest of the bunch. But, if they had to pick a team, they wisely go with the team that is thought to have a decent quarterback as Dallas is tied with New Orleans and Arizona with the sixth-best odds in the NFC. All because Dallas has a QB that is a proven starter.

That, for sure is a rarity in the NFC East. It is Dak Prescott and a bunch of guys. Assuming he is fully fit (and he seems to be), then the discussion ends there. What have the other teams in this division done in the offseason for us to consider their range of possibilities this year?

Dallas is currently the favorite to win the East at +115.

I have looked at the other three NFC East teams and wanted to offer a few thoughts on their offseason rebuilds and renovations below.



Daniel Jones (Danielle Parhizkaran / NorthJersey.com via USA Today)

NEW YORK GIANTS | 6-10 in 2020 | +450 to win the NFC East

Without question, the job remains a real work in progress in New York based largely on the offense. You will be hard-pressed to find a sign of positive results yet for the Giants attack and playing 2020 without Saquon Barkley is as valid a reason as any. He is now entering Year 4 of his career and so the money discussion for his future is front and center. They will delay any rushes to judgment on that front for now, but I assume in 12 months they will have to decide whether to double down or not on his future. The timing of that will actually sync up with the three-year mark for young QB Daniel Jones. It would not be a stretch to say all eyes are on him as they have tried to fill the offense with weapons in 2021 as Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are joined by newcomers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. That means it is time for Jones to show he can be worthy of the highly compensated second contract and steer Joe Judge and Jason Garrett to job security, too.

The very good news for the Giants is that the defense has shown real strides and all the talent acquisition on that side of the ball has started to pay off. Yes, they need much more at certain spots, but now that you can see Leonard Williams locked down with a new and huge deal, the success stories of James Bradberry and Logan Ryan being added to the secondary, Blake Martinez signed last year to anchor the linebackers a bit, and the young talent from drafts gone by, including Dexter Lawrence and now Azeez Ojulari to finally give them potential edge presence, it sure looks like that is the unit that can lead them forward in the short term.

Five biggest additions

WR Kenny Golladay – 4 years/$72 million: This should really change the math for their offense as it has been some time since the Giants have had a real big needle-mover down the field like Golladay. The Giants needed to pay a premium price, but I am optimistic this can really transform things.

TE Kyle Rudolph – 2/$12 million: I assume this is all about Rudolph’s ability to offer veteran presence and a real threat in the red zone to make difficult short-area catches. He is 31 and helps them play some 12 personnel near the goal line.

CB Adoree Jackson – 3/$39 million: The Giants never felt great about their second corner beyond Bradberry. Jackson has been hurt a lot in the last two seasons, but if he is back and fit — which you would hope has been confirmed to pay him that contract — this has a chance to really help complete that secondary overhaul. They seem to have underwhelmed by trying to address this group through the draft, but they spent to fix things as quickly as possible with proven players and in short order.

WR Kadarius Toney: Love the playmaking ability underneath and the nitro yards after catch. He has some technical things to clean up, but with the initial depth at the position, he has a little time to develop before they throw everything at him. He makes them much more dynamic.

Edge Azeez Ojulari: Who could have known that he would be available at pick 50, but if his knee was just a draft-day scare and he is what we saw at Georgia, I think the value of this pick can be astronomical. It has been several seasons since the Giants have had a pass rusher off the edge that one would term as scary, but they are stockpiling prospects and Ojulari’s ceiling may be the best of the bunch.

Five biggest subtractions

G Kevin Zeitler: The Giants losing Zeitler is a very curious move, because they have certainly been dragged down by their offensive line and he was probably their best player up front in the last two years. But, they love their youth up front. We will see if they are right, but Zeitler took a few minutes to sign on as a starter for the Ravens at 3/$22 million.

DT Dalvin TomlinsonTwo years and $22 million for Tomlinson to take his run-stuffing act to Minnesota. The Giants had redundancy here, so this was not a huge shock, but he was very good.

WR Golden Tate: This was an obvious end of the road for Tate and they did well to cut ties and save money.

Edge Kyler Fackrell: He made some plays, but was only a stop-gap until they could find something better.

T Cam Fleming: Fleming should not be playing as much as he did, but now with that year of development for the kids and the return of Nate Solder, they needed to find a new path here, too.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES | 4-11-1 in 2020 | +500 to win the NFC East

It certainly happened fast in Philadelphia as they wondered about Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz “running the East” for 5-10 years after they won the 2017 Super Bowl, but the rise and fall of power in this sport is so much quicker than sports radio can ever imagine. The purge of veterans was not quite what was forecasted, but the Eagles did try to turn a major page on offense as they found a taker for Wentz after the firing of Pederson and now turn the reins over completely to Jalen Hurts to find out if he can be a true QB1 or if they have to use one of their precious 2022 draft assets to go invest in that position again. Coach Nick Sirianni and his two new coordinators will probably enjoy a year similar to Joe Judge last year, where this is a true-foundation pouring year offensively with a very young group of skill players, speed, and then hopes of getting a healthy year from the offensive line to give it all a chance.

Defensively, it will still be a stout defensive line with familiar names (and one rival newcomer) and focus on the back seven on the defense being an exercise in finding pieces for the future when this team is “ready to win again”, but that probably won’t be in big numbers this year. They have the worst odds to win this division and have not shown indications this season that they aspire to do so. This is a “find out what we have” year for Sirianni and after years of trying to compete for it all, this should be a regroup season.



DeVonta Smith (Kirby Lee / USA Today)

Five biggest additions

WR DeVonta Smith: The first-rounder they secured by trading with the Cowboys to jump the Giants will be the big name in — and the future headache of divisional defensive coordinators. I think his similarities to last year’s first (TCU WR Jalen Reagor) is curious, but at least they now have fresh blood in this group to harvest playmakers on the outside.

OL Landon Dickerson: Early second-round pick from Alabama (as well), the Eagles may want to figure out where best to put him, but his upside is very high and he should be a real piece moving forward up front. They needed an infusion of youth and quality on the offensive line that is up there in age.

QB Joe Flacco – 1/$3.5million: The understudy for Hurts and certainly a caddie in the film room, Flacco made sense to sign along with Nick Mullens from San Francisco.
Edge Ryan Kerrigan: A very small 1/$2.5 million deal for Kerrigan after a decade in Washington. He should rotate with Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat on pass-rushing downs and complement Brandon Graham. Not a bad addition to any group, but sort of expected him on a contender.

S Anthony Harris: Like Kerrigan, we anticipated Harris would go to a team trying to win now, but apparently the Eagles saw an opportunity to kick the tires for a year as the Vikings safety was tagged in 2020, but was part of a full market at safety and settled for a smaller 1/$5 million deal.

Five biggest subtractions

QB Carson Wentz: The Eagles did pretty well on this trade. A third in 2021 and a second that converts to a first if he plays 75 percent of the Colts offensive snaps. The QB room is Wentz, Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger in Indy, so they have a good chance to get another first. The Eagles already have Miami’s 2022 first-rounder as well. They also have an NFL historical record for most dead money from Wentz’s deal after the trade.

WR Alshon Jeffery: He remains unsigned and his last two years have been poor. But, he helped them win a Super Bowl.

WR DeSean Jackson: The Rams are the latest team to wonder if Jackson has anything left. It has been a few years since he showed he did.

S Jalen Mills: I was pretty shocked that New England put 4/$24 million on Mills because he certainly was not very good as a corner. Perhaps the safety conversion for Bill Belichick fills his pockets with cash and his new team with optimism.

Coach Doug Pederson: Pretty shocked at how quickly it all went downhill and I do have questions about that front office and its affinity for power struggles, but now Pederson sits on the sideline and collects the remainder of his deal before showing up elsewhere soon.

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM | 7-9 in 2020 | +250 to win the NFC East

We still await word from on high about the new team name, but otherwise, if you don’t want to pick Dallas to win the East, it would have to then fall to Washington. There is no question Washington is the rival to be most concerned about with a defensive line that is about as stacked as you will find in the league. Ron Rivera has quickly pushed that defense to the next level and the way the WFT rag-dolled what was left of Dallas when they met in October and November should send a warning shot that they aren’t planning on slowing down in 2021.

However, the biggest questions are for an offensive side of the ball. That unit wasn’t good enough for most of 2020 and was unable to find the bold strike in the QB market that was heavily anticipated. That said, Washington has done enough smart things recently that there is enough reason to believe that this group has a bit of a clue. We shall see. They also haven’t had a winning season since 2016 when Kirk Cousins was their guy. For them to get where they need to go, they will need a long-term QB scene and that hasn’t developed yet. But, progress is being made.

Five biggest additions

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: There are two types of people — those who think Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid signing and those who think it is not that much to be afraid of. I am probably more of the latter. He is a decent backup QB, but the starting stuff is limited. His one-year deal for $10 million is solid money for him and he seems like a great guy, but I wonder if Washington prefers more Taylor Heinicke or Kyle Allen before long. The WFT has added plenty of weapons and I believe it wants to be far more “QB friendly” in the scheme.

WR Curtis Samuel: Here was a bold strike that should really help Scott Turner’s offense — 3/$34.5 million to Samuel to join his former Carolina coaches in Washington at a time when it appears he is realizing his potential. Samuel and Adam Humphries add a dynamic component that should make this offense difficult to defend.

CB William Jackson: The former Bengals speedster signed a three-year, $40.5 million free agency deal to play opposite Kendall Fuller in the secondary. It should be pretty easy to play corner for Washington with that pass rush and it can definitely play zones behind a line that brings the rush. This should really help.

LB Jamin Davis: Speaking of speed at the second level, the best athlete possible pushed Davis up the board and if Washington is right, it will finally have a linebacker who can make a difference in the middle of the field again. We know Rivera has wanted that since he was hired.

T Samuel Cosmi: Very odd to see Washington so quick to move on from its tackles, but once the Trent Williams situation went poorly, Washington realized it was time to turn the page. Perhaps the WFT jumped the gun too quickly on Morgan Moses, but getting Cosmi gets them at least one top prospect at the position. They need more.

Five biggest subtractions

QB Alex Smith: Thankfully, after his heroic return, he can peacefully and safely enjoy retirement. Quite a story, indeed.

T Morgan Moses: Whether he ends up with the Jets or elsewhere, this move was curious. He has always fought hard for Washington, but it isn’t the first time a new leadership group wanted to start putting more of “their guys” out there. Moses is going to be fine elsewhere.

DE Ryan Kerrigan: His role diminished more and more last year and he heads to Philadelphia where the Eagles can use his help more. Chase Young and Montez Sweat don’t leave much for the rest of the group so the time had come.

CB Ronald Darby: Darby had a pretty decent season for very little last year, but Washington basically decided to give Jackson the money it would take to keep Darby, due to Darby’s track record of health issues. He gets three years and $30 million in Denver.

CB Fabian Moreau: Never quite developed like the WFT hoped and barely played much in 2020. He joins the Atlanta Falcons after his rookie deal expired and Washington did not make much effort to keep him.
 

Shiningstar

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I think what Garrett did in NY will flow over into the new season, they lost some players but didnt crap the bed totally. They seemed to give the impression they could win games and make strides while Dallas flopped.

Eagles gave up and hit the off season hard.

Washington is still Washington.

If Dallas wants to make a change, it has to start with telling the team, NOT Jerry "its time to win despite your owner" and he has to make Quinn go after opposing QBs and he has to make Kellen Moore want touch downs.
 

Simpleton

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None of these teams are good and if we don't win the division McCarthy should be very worried about his job, barring another string of catastrophic injuries.

Everybody loves to pump up the Skins because they won the division and have a beastly DL but the fact of the matter is that they finished ONE game ahead of the Giants and completely mangled Cowboys. They only beat 2 starting QB's, and that was Carson Wentz (can you really consider him a starter last year?) and Roethlisberger who basically fell apart over the last 5-6 games of the year.

Aside from that they beat Andy Dalton/DiNucci X 2, Joe Burrow's backup, Nick Mullens, and whatever you want to call the Week 17 sham against the Eagles. They gave up 30+ points to the Cardinals, Browns, Ravens, Rams, Lions and Buccaneers, so basically every legitimate offense they played.

Their defense gives them a high floor but FItzpatrick is fool's gold and they're not an actual contender. They could make things difficult because that DL is so good but they're a very flawed team and a clear step below us if we're healthy.

Hell, I might argue the Giants are more of a threat since they also have a very sound defense and a potential difference maker in Barkley on offense who could do just enough to help them win conservative game scripts. If he can pop off a huge 1400-1500 yard season they could turtleball their way to 8-10 wins just as easily as the Skins.

The Eagles probably have the most well-rounded roster if their OL is healthy but Hurts is a joke who will have to run 10-15 times a game to stay competitive.

Long story short, if we're healthy there's no excuse for finishing behind any of these teams.
 

Simpleton

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The 49ers could be really good, they were basically in the same boat as us last year with a bunch of catastrophic injuries.

I think losing Salah and the inevitable QB circus will be enough to hold them back from winning it all but they should be solid enough to win about 11 games.
 

Genghis Khan

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The 49ers could be really good, they were basically in the same boat as us last year with a bunch of catastrophic injuries.

I think losing Salah and the inevitable QB circus will be enough to hold them back from winning it all but they should be solid enough to win about 11 games.

The QB situation is the big issue though. Just don't see a super bowl as being even a possibility.
 

Simpleton

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The QB situation is the big issue though. Just don't see a super bowl as being even a possibility.
Probably not although if they still had Salah I don't see why not, Shannahan got Garoppolo there before although I think the circus atmosphere around Lance everytime Garoppolo fucks up will be too much.
 

Chocolate Lab

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Plus that division is so tough. Unlike here.
 
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