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Can Randy Gregory be a defensive force for Dallas in 2018?
By Bob Sturm Jul 23, 2018
I had quite a list of projects to finish before Oxnard when I signed on at The Athletic back in January, and I am pleased to report that I got to over 10% of them. Ideas are easier to conceive than pieces are to write, but hopefully, I helped to inform and entertain you in the long offseason.
That offseason will end in 48 hours, so I have time to write one last piece before we get to the start of training camp. I do want you to know that a fair amount of my preseason will lean on 2017 material, like my upcoming studies on La’el Collins’ first year at right tackle and my rookie evaluation of Jourdan Lewis, but you get the idea.
But the project on my January list that I wasn’t sure I would need to ever cross off is getting the black ink today: The “what should we expect of Randy Gregory in 2018” piece is here!
Let’s start with the “Sunk Cost Fallacy”. I assume everyone has heard of it, but just in case you haven’t, it has been defined on the interweb in a number of similar ways that amount to the following definition from this story: “Your decisions are tainted by the emotional investments you accumulate, and the more you invest in something the harder it becomes to abandon it.”
In other words, the more you pay for something, the longer you are willing to believe that something is about to change and make it all worthwhile. You paid too much for this to give up on it now.
In 2015, Randy Gregory was thought to be a top-5 player in the draft. Dozens of players are labeled as “top-5” by someone every year, so I am not suggesting that this designation means too much. But reputable people placed him near the very top of the 2015 Draft because he was thought to be a very special prospect.
Then red flags began surfacing about his issues that all seemed to revolve around drug use, the inability to pass tests with respect to this drug use, and his inability to show up to take said drug tests.
The rumors were that Nebraska coaches tried to help him avoid tests because they knew what the results would be and other rumors suggested medical conditions abounded. During it all, nobody suggested he was a bad guy, but generally that he had a ton on his plate that would require some special care and treatment to get him to be all he can be.
Gregory’s draft stock fell and the Cowboys could not believe their good fortune as pick #60 turned into an opportunity to get a supposed first-round value. I admit I was pretty delighted. For the record, Jason Garrett was seen on the war-room camera looking as if he was the opposite of delighted. He looked like he disagreed with the room. Garrett, of course, knows that he is not the type of guy to speak on this matter publicly, but the Cowboys’ decision to grab Gregory always makes me recall that moment where their head coach looked annoyed that this was happening.
Before the Cowboys picked him, I studied him closely for that draft. Here were my thoughts out of Nebraska.
What I liked: He is clearly a sight to behold with very long arms and a slender build that makes you think Aldon Smith as a possibility on the edge just ruining plays. He can be a very active pass rush guy and when he sees something in front of him, he has this explosive gear that is uncommon. They also try to move him around and he can either stand or put his hand down and has some Clay Matthews explosion and versatility from all sorts of spots. Some games he looks like he can get off the ball quick, but others he is the last guy out of his stance. On his game, he attacks in a blur. He is clearly far more a tools prospect than a finished product and unfortunately, his 2013 was more productive than his 2014 in almost every category. Against the run, he can get to the sideline with a runner and keep contain. That speaks to his future as a LB or a very athletic pass-rush DE. His best attribute might be his swim moves. Very solid. He is active on pass rush and he plays faster if he can smell the ball. He is great using his hands on a tackle to gain an edge.
I think it is hilarious I compared him to Aldon Smith.
What I didn’t like: I really look for a high motor in my front 7 defensive players as I know Rod Marinelli wants that badly. We will trade motor for ability to a certain point, but for the most part, I need a guy that is always chasing. I did not see that consistently from Gregory. Some weeks, every play looked important. Other weeks, it did not. I am not sure what his true position is because as a 4-3 defensive end, he is not strong enough for me. His weight (240) is a red flag (too light), but I have seen guys make that weight work because they are quite strong. He is slender and is not winning much on leverage or power, so I think he has to be an outside LB on a 3-4, most likely. His pass rush moves seem awfully under-developed and raw.
Summary: There is no doubt he has off-the-charts upside and rare physical traits that the NFL loves to value. I don’t think he is a scheme fit in Dallas and while he might be a guy who develops into a monster, I am looking for a bit more polish for my projected Top 5 picks, usually. I like him, but I sure expected more. The Miami game was fantastic, but his final game – the Bowl game against USC was not very impressive as a whole.
So, in a nutshell, I didn’t see him as a top pick, but at #60? I was so in. Pass-rushers are hard to find and this guy fit the bill. This was the year of Greg Hardy, so it appeared the Cowboys decided that 2014 brought them so close to glory that maybe all they needed was a pass-rush to win a Super Bowl. So they signed a guy with red flags everywhere and then drafted another one. Cowboys football 101.
His rookie season was a learning experience where he exploded in the preseason and his first regular season game, but then suffered a high ankle sprain that was ugly and took him out of action for several weeks in the second half. By the time he returned, he was merely a sub-package pass-rusher who began to flash later in the season with some QB hits and hurries, but no sacks.
Here are a few of those brief moments:
This is in Week 15 against the Jets and D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Gregory-#94 long arms Ferguson to the outside and then dips back underneath to get a shot at the Ryan Fitzpatrick before pulling up to avoid a penalty for going low on a QB. Still, that is a nice individual move from the rookie against a high-level LT.
Later that same night, TE Jeff Cumberland is asked to keep Gregory wide and Randy walks him right back into the QB to force an incompletion. He shows some ability to get to the passer here after a long season of not getting much done. Good rookie progress now to close things down in passing situations.
The next game (Week 16 in Buffalo) the Cowboys now try to free him with a stunt on third and long and use Hardy to knock #77-Cordy Glenn off his spot and this allows Gregory to get a free run to the inside as #64-Richie Incognito doesn’t switch. Gregory gets to Tyrod Taylor just as the ball is out but again offers a very useful rep from RDE.
2015 was a lost season for the team, but there were reasons to believe Gregory would take a step forward in 2016.
Instead, we have the following on his transaction ledger:
2-19-16 Gregory suspended by NFL for 4 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.
9-19-16 Gregory suspended by NFL for 10 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy
1-5-17 Gregory suspended by NFL for at least 1 year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy
Those THREE suspensions in less than 1 year knocked the young man from a promising prospect who fell in the draft because rumors spread to a guy hanging onto his professional career by the thinnest of threads. In fact, by the third strike, many thought he was done. Surely the Cowboys would never allow him back inside their facility. His future in pro football was questionable if not destroyed.
Now, you may notice that none of those drugs were of the “performance enhancing” variety. Instead, are widely believed to relate to his relationship and seeming dependency on marijuana, combined with either not being responsible enough to show up for tests or smart enough to know what a test will reveal and thus not taking it. Given that I am a football writer and surely not a medical expert, I will attempt to write about him without completely grasping what he deals (or dealt) with on a daily basis to cope with life in general. But it sure seems like it was plenty.
Again, he wasn’t out partying or causing problems with the law. This feels an awful lot like self-medicating rather than reckless living.
That said, when a team invests in a player at the magnitude that they did, they need him to deliver on the field. And if he is suspended for a total of 30 games during a 32-game stretch, you can understand how 98% of the fanbase has had their fill and will remain cynical until he demonstrates that he is in a new place in life and able to dominate on Sundays without any fear that yet another ban is around the next corner.
So, is he? Is Randy Gregory a new man and about to answer several questions of substance on the football field? Or is this another case of the Cowboys chasing their tails with one suspended defensive lineman after the next? No wonder Tyrone Crawford is such an important team leader. This generation of Cowboys defensive lines appears to require at least one league suspension per player – and sometimes more that. David Irving, Hardy, Demarcus Lawrence, and Josh Brent all join Gregory. You could even add Rolando McClain if you want to expand the list to Rod Marinelli’s “Front 7,” which would leave you with a total of 10 suspensions for 62 games since 2014 from that group alone.
Staggering. And, to be frank, embarrassing.
But as we look at Randy Gregory we know two things are true about that three-suspension trifecta that destroyed his 2016 and 2017:
Let’s take a look:
This appears to be a play where the pulling right guard is going to get to Gregory, but David Irving made sure the guard never got there and that means that Gregory had a ridiculous, unimpeded free run at this running back. Marinelli is constantly trying to get his guys to work in concert and to allow one man’s work to free another man up to make a play and I would suggest this is a great example of it right here. Also, 94 with that quickness looks like a young DeMarcus Ware to me. I love the speed, twitch, and overall explosiveness.
Again, tell me this doesn’t remind you of Ware. Look at the relentless chase, from right defensive end all the way across the far hash and to the numbers, as Gregory chased down Matt Stafford from behind and forced an incompletion. This requires a potent combination of strength, quickness, and motor. Love it.
Let’s jump to the next week in Philadelphia. I remember when this play happened that we were speculating whether this is Gregory’s bust or his LB behind him not filling the gap that he vacated. Let’s not worry about that, but rather after the crash inside, just watch Gregory’s recovery ability in chasing down Darren Sproles. Are you kidding me? Look at him striding through traffic against his momentum to chase down Sproles. Gregory is an athlete, to say the least.
Again, it looks like Gregory jumps the snap and destroys a run play with explosiveness that makes that outside TE’s effort to reach him impossible. This is another tackle for loss that is just comedic. He is not the world’s best run-defending DE, but if he is going to kill a play like this periodically, the rest will be ok.
Again, many of these plays are demonstrations of motor and athleticism rather than pure X’s and O’s greatness, but if you are wondering why someone would continue to hang in there with Gregory until he gets his life sorted out, just watch 94 on this play. He is miles from the play – so much so that he is off the screen for a bit – and he almost gives up contain, but in the end, he finishes the play for another TFL with his pursuit.
And finally, his one and only NFL sack. Jason Peters attempts to cut him and Gregory recovers to hit the blindside of rookie Carson Wentz to open his account.
You may recall that the Cowboys were trying every scheme they could conceive to allow him to play in that playoff game against Green Bay in 2016, but the league was not having it. These two games would be it and Gregory went back on suspension before the playoffs could begin.
248 snaps in his 2015 rookie season. 66 snaps in his second year. Zero snaps since, and just the one sack in 314 NFL plays.
We sit here today in July of 2018 and wonder if his issues have been left in the rearview mirror. We also wonder, by the way, what the NFL’s policy on marijuana is going to be in a few years (if, in fact, there will even be a policy).
Gregory’s contract has two years remaining, as his service time did not register in 2017. He is entering the third season of a four-year rookie deal. He will actually turn 26 this November and is just six months younger than Demarcus Lawrence, who could possibly be his opposite DE on passing downs.
I opened this piece by mentioning the Sunk Cost Fallacy and whether I am guilty of sticking with Gregory through all of this only to be disappointed again. I don’t think that is the case, but I also would be a fool to assure anyone that Gregory will have 10 NFL sacks in his entire career.
We don’t know where this is headed. We do know, however, that if he is ready to repay the Cowboys for their patience and commitment, they have the chance to put together a defensive end pairing that allows their defense to fall into place like never before in the Marinelli era. We saw Lawrence have a tremendous year without much from his bookend partner last year. This allows offenses to slide coverage to the biggest threat and compensate that way. But two edge-rushing threats? That isolates a weak link and puts the offense in a real tough bind.
I supported the Cowboys’ draft-night decision in 2015. I thought Gregory was a chance worth taking. Many have placed this squarely in my “loss column”. The team then showed far more patience when they rode out two years of suspensions from the second-rounder. Now the penalty has been paid and here we are again.
Gregory is a very talented player who the Cowboys continue to invest in long after most would have sold all shares. Will they reap a sizable reward? And does the irony of one guy returning from suspension to help you deal with yet another suspension (from Irving) perfectly summarize the Jerry Jones era?
For me, this is one of the most interesting stories in camp. I am looking forward to seeing what #94 can show us in California.
By Bob Sturm Jul 23, 2018
I had quite a list of projects to finish before Oxnard when I signed on at The Athletic back in January, and I am pleased to report that I got to over 10% of them. Ideas are easier to conceive than pieces are to write, but hopefully, I helped to inform and entertain you in the long offseason.
That offseason will end in 48 hours, so I have time to write one last piece before we get to the start of training camp. I do want you to know that a fair amount of my preseason will lean on 2017 material, like my upcoming studies on La’el Collins’ first year at right tackle and my rookie evaluation of Jourdan Lewis, but you get the idea.
But the project on my January list that I wasn’t sure I would need to ever cross off is getting the black ink today: The “what should we expect of Randy Gregory in 2018” piece is here!
Let’s start with the “Sunk Cost Fallacy”. I assume everyone has heard of it, but just in case you haven’t, it has been defined on the interweb in a number of similar ways that amount to the following definition from this story: “Your decisions are tainted by the emotional investments you accumulate, and the more you invest in something the harder it becomes to abandon it.”
In other words, the more you pay for something, the longer you are willing to believe that something is about to change and make it all worthwhile. You paid too much for this to give up on it now.
In 2015, Randy Gregory was thought to be a top-5 player in the draft. Dozens of players are labeled as “top-5” by someone every year, so I am not suggesting that this designation means too much. But reputable people placed him near the very top of the 2015 Draft because he was thought to be a very special prospect.
Then red flags began surfacing about his issues that all seemed to revolve around drug use, the inability to pass tests with respect to this drug use, and his inability to show up to take said drug tests.
The rumors were that Nebraska coaches tried to help him avoid tests because they knew what the results would be and other rumors suggested medical conditions abounded. During it all, nobody suggested he was a bad guy, but generally that he had a ton on his plate that would require some special care and treatment to get him to be all he can be.
Gregory’s draft stock fell and the Cowboys could not believe their good fortune as pick #60 turned into an opportunity to get a supposed first-round value. I admit I was pretty delighted. For the record, Jason Garrett was seen on the war-room camera looking as if he was the opposite of delighted. He looked like he disagreed with the room. Garrett, of course, knows that he is not the type of guy to speak on this matter publicly, but the Cowboys’ decision to grab Gregory always makes me recall that moment where their head coach looked annoyed that this was happening.
Before the Cowboys picked him, I studied him closely for that draft. Here were my thoughts out of Nebraska.
What I liked: He is clearly a sight to behold with very long arms and a slender build that makes you think Aldon Smith as a possibility on the edge just ruining plays. He can be a very active pass rush guy and when he sees something in front of him, he has this explosive gear that is uncommon. They also try to move him around and he can either stand or put his hand down and has some Clay Matthews explosion and versatility from all sorts of spots. Some games he looks like he can get off the ball quick, but others he is the last guy out of his stance. On his game, he attacks in a blur. He is clearly far more a tools prospect than a finished product and unfortunately, his 2013 was more productive than his 2014 in almost every category. Against the run, he can get to the sideline with a runner and keep contain. That speaks to his future as a LB or a very athletic pass-rush DE. His best attribute might be his swim moves. Very solid. He is active on pass rush and he plays faster if he can smell the ball. He is great using his hands on a tackle to gain an edge.
I think it is hilarious I compared him to Aldon Smith.
What I didn’t like: I really look for a high motor in my front 7 defensive players as I know Rod Marinelli wants that badly. We will trade motor for ability to a certain point, but for the most part, I need a guy that is always chasing. I did not see that consistently from Gregory. Some weeks, every play looked important. Other weeks, it did not. I am not sure what his true position is because as a 4-3 defensive end, he is not strong enough for me. His weight (240) is a red flag (too light), but I have seen guys make that weight work because they are quite strong. He is slender and is not winning much on leverage or power, so I think he has to be an outside LB on a 3-4, most likely. His pass rush moves seem awfully under-developed and raw.
Summary: There is no doubt he has off-the-charts upside and rare physical traits that the NFL loves to value. I don’t think he is a scheme fit in Dallas and while he might be a guy who develops into a monster, I am looking for a bit more polish for my projected Top 5 picks, usually. I like him, but I sure expected more. The Miami game was fantastic, but his final game – the Bowl game against USC was not very impressive as a whole.
So, in a nutshell, I didn’t see him as a top pick, but at #60? I was so in. Pass-rushers are hard to find and this guy fit the bill. This was the year of Greg Hardy, so it appeared the Cowboys decided that 2014 brought them so close to glory that maybe all they needed was a pass-rush to win a Super Bowl. So they signed a guy with red flags everywhere and then drafted another one. Cowboys football 101.
His rookie season was a learning experience where he exploded in the preseason and his first regular season game, but then suffered a high ankle sprain that was ugly and took him out of action for several weeks in the second half. By the time he returned, he was merely a sub-package pass-rusher who began to flash later in the season with some QB hits and hurries, but no sacks.
Here are a few of those brief moments:
This is in Week 15 against the Jets and D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Gregory-#94 long arms Ferguson to the outside and then dips back underneath to get a shot at the Ryan Fitzpatrick before pulling up to avoid a penalty for going low on a QB. Still, that is a nice individual move from the rookie against a high-level LT.
Later that same night, TE Jeff Cumberland is asked to keep Gregory wide and Randy walks him right back into the QB to force an incompletion. He shows some ability to get to the passer here after a long season of not getting much done. Good rookie progress now to close things down in passing situations.
The next game (Week 16 in Buffalo) the Cowboys now try to free him with a stunt on third and long and use Hardy to knock #77-Cordy Glenn off his spot and this allows Gregory to get a free run to the inside as #64-Richie Incognito doesn’t switch. Gregory gets to Tyrod Taylor just as the ball is out but again offers a very useful rep from RDE.
2015 was a lost season for the team, but there were reasons to believe Gregory would take a step forward in 2016.
Instead, we have the following on his transaction ledger:
2-19-16 Gregory suspended by NFL for 4 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.
9-19-16 Gregory suspended by NFL for 10 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy
1-5-17 Gregory suspended by NFL for at least 1 year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy
Those THREE suspensions in less than 1 year knocked the young man from a promising prospect who fell in the draft because rumors spread to a guy hanging onto his professional career by the thinnest of threads. In fact, by the third strike, many thought he was done. Surely the Cowboys would never allow him back inside their facility. His future in pro football was questionable if not destroyed.
Now, you may notice that none of those drugs were of the “performance enhancing” variety. Instead, are widely believed to relate to his relationship and seeming dependency on marijuana, combined with either not being responsible enough to show up for tests or smart enough to know what a test will reveal and thus not taking it. Given that I am a football writer and surely not a medical expert, I will attempt to write about him without completely grasping what he deals (or dealt) with on a daily basis to cope with life in general. But it sure seems like it was plenty.
Again, he wasn’t out partying or causing problems with the law. This feels an awful lot like self-medicating rather than reckless living.
That said, when a team invests in a player at the magnitude that they did, they need him to deliver on the field. And if he is suspended for a total of 30 games during a 32-game stretch, you can understand how 98% of the fanbase has had their fill and will remain cynical until he demonstrates that he is in a new place in life and able to dominate on Sundays without any fear that yet another ban is around the next corner.
So, is he? Is Randy Gregory a new man and about to answer several questions of substance on the football field? Or is this another case of the Cowboys chasing their tails with one suspended defensive lineman after the next? No wonder Tyrone Crawford is such an important team leader. This generation of Cowboys defensive lines appears to require at least one league suspension per player – and sometimes more that. David Irving, Hardy, Demarcus Lawrence, and Josh Brent all join Gregory. You could even add Rolando McClain if you want to expand the list to Rod Marinelli’s “Front 7,” which would leave you with a total of 10 suspensions for 62 games since 2014 from that group alone.
Staggering. And, to be frank, embarrassing.
But as we look at Randy Gregory we know two things are true about that three-suspension trifecta that destroyed his 2016 and 2017:
- – He played in only two games out of a possible 33 (32 regular season bouts and a playoff game)
- – He was the best version of Randy Gregory we had ever seen in those two games.
Let’s take a look:
This appears to be a play where the pulling right guard is going to get to Gregory, but David Irving made sure the guard never got there and that means that Gregory had a ridiculous, unimpeded free run at this running back. Marinelli is constantly trying to get his guys to work in concert and to allow one man’s work to free another man up to make a play and I would suggest this is a great example of it right here. Also, 94 with that quickness looks like a young DeMarcus Ware to me. I love the speed, twitch, and overall explosiveness.
Again, tell me this doesn’t remind you of Ware. Look at the relentless chase, from right defensive end all the way across the far hash and to the numbers, as Gregory chased down Matt Stafford from behind and forced an incompletion. This requires a potent combination of strength, quickness, and motor. Love it.
Let’s jump to the next week in Philadelphia. I remember when this play happened that we were speculating whether this is Gregory’s bust or his LB behind him not filling the gap that he vacated. Let’s not worry about that, but rather after the crash inside, just watch Gregory’s recovery ability in chasing down Darren Sproles. Are you kidding me? Look at him striding through traffic against his momentum to chase down Sproles. Gregory is an athlete, to say the least.
Again, it looks like Gregory jumps the snap and destroys a run play with explosiveness that makes that outside TE’s effort to reach him impossible. This is another tackle for loss that is just comedic. He is not the world’s best run-defending DE, but if he is going to kill a play like this periodically, the rest will be ok.
Again, many of these plays are demonstrations of motor and athleticism rather than pure X’s and O’s greatness, but if you are wondering why someone would continue to hang in there with Gregory until he gets his life sorted out, just watch 94 on this play. He is miles from the play – so much so that he is off the screen for a bit – and he almost gives up contain, but in the end, he finishes the play for another TFL with his pursuit.
And finally, his one and only NFL sack. Jason Peters attempts to cut him and Gregory recovers to hit the blindside of rookie Carson Wentz to open his account.
You may recall that the Cowboys were trying every scheme they could conceive to allow him to play in that playoff game against Green Bay in 2016, but the league was not having it. These two games would be it and Gregory went back on suspension before the playoffs could begin.
248 snaps in his 2015 rookie season. 66 snaps in his second year. Zero snaps since, and just the one sack in 314 NFL plays.
We sit here today in July of 2018 and wonder if his issues have been left in the rearview mirror. We also wonder, by the way, what the NFL’s policy on marijuana is going to be in a few years (if, in fact, there will even be a policy).
Gregory’s contract has two years remaining, as his service time did not register in 2017. He is entering the third season of a four-year rookie deal. He will actually turn 26 this November and is just six months younger than Demarcus Lawrence, who could possibly be his opposite DE on passing downs.
I opened this piece by mentioning the Sunk Cost Fallacy and whether I am guilty of sticking with Gregory through all of this only to be disappointed again. I don’t think that is the case, but I also would be a fool to assure anyone that Gregory will have 10 NFL sacks in his entire career.
We don’t know where this is headed. We do know, however, that if he is ready to repay the Cowboys for their patience and commitment, they have the chance to put together a defensive end pairing that allows their defense to fall into place like never before in the Marinelli era. We saw Lawrence have a tremendous year without much from his bookend partner last year. This allows offenses to slide coverage to the biggest threat and compensate that way. But two edge-rushing threats? That isolates a weak link and puts the offense in a real tough bind.
I supported the Cowboys’ draft-night decision in 2015. I thought Gregory was a chance worth taking. Many have placed this squarely in my “loss column”. The team then showed far more patience when they rode out two years of suspensions from the second-rounder. Now the penalty has been paid and here we are again.
Gregory is a very talented player who the Cowboys continue to invest in long after most would have sold all shares. Will they reap a sizable reward? And does the irony of one guy returning from suspension to help you deal with yet another suspension (from Irving) perfectly summarize the Jerry Jones era?
For me, this is one of the most interesting stories in camp. I am looking forward to seeing what #94 can show us in California.