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By Bob Sturm Feb 13, 2020
Each week during the buildup to the NFL Draft, as has been our tradition since 2012, we will take a look at five of the key prospects at a given positional group. The hope is to cover what we perceive as the very best players in this spring’s draft, as well as the Dallas Cowboys’ positions of greatest need in the first three rounds, using about 200 snaps of the most recent college tape from each of the prospects. I am certainly not an NFL scout, but I have found over the years that much can be learned from giving each player a couple of hours and really studying how he might fit at the next level. With a little luck, we will be plenty familiar with the options when the draft arrives in late April.
As we continue to go study prospects over the next few months, I will try not to claim that everyone comes at a point of need for your Cowboys. We can certainly all agree that running back, for instance, is probably not a good use of our time from a Dallas perspective. I share a similar view for the offensive line, to be honest. With the possible exception of concerns about Tyron Smith’s future, the Cowboys are fine there and actually have drafted depth.
We kicked off Week 1 of this exercise with safeties, where there is a need. In Week 2, we looked at some defensive tackles, where there is also a need. And here we are at wide receiver, where there is, in fact, quite a need at the moment. That could all change once the Cowboys nail down the contracts of any or all of the three unrestricted free agents who consisted of almost all non-Michael Gallup production from this group. For now, let’s look at the Cowboys’ WR depth chart at this very moment.
Here, sorted by targets and yards in 2019, is what is currently available for 2020 and beyond. Needless to say, Dallas has some work to do:
CURRENT DALLAS COWBOYS WIDE RECEIVERS UNDER CONTRACT, 2019-2022
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | |||
| Michael Gallup | Michael Gallup | Michael Gallup | |
| Randall Cobb | |||
| Tavon Austin | |||
| Devin Smith | Devin Smith | ||
| Cedrick Wilson | Cedrick Wilson | Cedrick Wilson | |
| Noah Brown | Noah Brown |
Now, obviously, there will be some free-agent signings. If the Cowboys don’t end this spring with at least Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper resolved for 2020, we are going to see some serious drama around here. It is pretty much a “must” on both ledgers, but at least one of them might get tagged for this coming season before long.
For now, the reality is this: Only three Cowboys wide receivers managed to average one catch a game. So it is a bit of a stretch to suggest the team has depth. They have not had much stability at this position for a few years. 2017 featured Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley; 2018 started with Allen Hurns, Cole Beasley and Michael Gallup; and then 2019 saw Cooper, Gallup and Randall Cobb. 2020 could showcase a similar cast at a more expensive price… or maybe we start looking at this cast of draft picks.
2019 Cowboys Wide Receiver Statistics
| Player | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec Yds/G | Yds/Rec | Rec Long | Rec % | Rec 1st | YAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 16 | 119 | 79 | 1189 | 8 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 74.3 | 15.1 | 53 | 66.4 | 54 | 278 |
| Michael Gallup | 14 | 113 | 66 | 1107 | 6 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 79.1 | 16.8 | 62 | 58.4 | 50 | 333 |
| Randall Cobb | 15 | 83 | 55 | 828 | 3 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 55.2 | 15.1 | 59 | 66.3 | 41 | 329 |
| Tavon Austin | 14 | 24 | 13 | 177 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 12.6 | 13.6 | 59 | 54.2 | 8 | 85 |
| Devin Smith | 4 | 9 | 5 | 113 | 1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 28.3 | 22.6 | 51 | 55.6 | 4 | 32 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 6 | 8 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 14 | 62.5 | 2 | 11 |
| Ventell Bryant | 12 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 15 | 15 | 100 | 1 | 0 |
At the moment, the Cowboys have Michael Gallup, Devin Smith, Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown on their roster. We can add a few names like Ventell Bryant and Jon’Vea Johnson. But there is no way that is their plan for 2020.
With so many moving parts in this Cowboys offseason, we had better be prepared for anything. That could even include using a first-round pick on a wide receiver if the right situation emerges, and trust me, there will be some game-changing wide receivers selected in April.
You will hear the 2020 draft is deep at wide receiver. I take issue with that because due to the way the sport is played now at the college level, there is always depth at wide receiver. Every year, there are 20 to 25 names worthy of being in the Top 100 to 150 prospects, and that is nearly always the most populated group. Positional scarcity almost never affects this WR group. Instead, because there are always so many promising prospects at this position, they actually tend to get pushed down the board. No position allows a player with a second-round grade to be taken in the third or fourh round as often as WR. As long as we know this going in, we can be prepared for some very nice prospects to “slide” down the draft. It is all an illusion, because scarcity usually is what drives the market, not the quality of the specific player.
This week, we will look at the five I was most interested in, but never fear: Next week, I will study five more pass catchers, so we have a good idea who will be going on Days 1 and 2.
With all of that said, let’s find out about this first wave of prospects.
In alphabetical order, they are:
Jerry Jeudy — Alabama — 6’1 — 192
The NFL has been waiting on Jeudy since he won the 2018 Fred Biletnikoff Award as the most outstanding receiver in college football. Although he didn’t join Michael Crabtree and Justin Blackmon as the only players to win it multiple times, he certainly has a chance to exceed their NFL accomplishments moving forward. He will turn 21 on draft weekend, and the five-star recruit from Alabama will not have to wait long to make that birthday quite a celebration. He is only the second Crimson Tide receiver to have back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons (if you knew DJ Hall was the other one and not Julio Jones or Amari Cooper, give yourself a cookie today).
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: There seems to be an endless list of positives on Jeudy, who was highly touted and then seems to exceed his reputation when the film comes on. It starts with good size and what appears to be fantastic speed (although he has plenty of competition in this group). But the most impressive thing I would say about Jeudy is probably his great feel for route-running. Oftentimes we have to choose between great route runners and great athletic traits. In those rare occasions where we find both, we certainly think we are looking at elite NFL types. He has natural hands and a great feel for any and all routes you want him to run. He also is up for the battle, showing a great competitive streak. He is interested in run blocking, but make no mistake, this is a weapon you can use in just about any way to expand your entire passing offense.
Concerns: I am hard-pressed to provide many concerns after giving Jeudy the 200-snap treatment, but there were a few times where you would have liked to see him bring down a contested catch a bit better. The good news there is he is often wide open because he gets that ridiculous separation so well. I also saw a few occasions in which he ran over the middle and braced for a hit before the ball arrived, and that resulted in some manner of alligator arms. But I grant you I am being picky here. He also has a slight build that might possibly become problematic, but the trend of the NFL making things safer for wideouts has made me readjust my concerns here.
Overall: Jeudy is a phenomenal prospect who gives me no concerns at all. He is QB-friendly and has elite traits as well as a very impressive football IQ. Then you sprinkle in the hands and a very accomplished statistical dossier at Alabama, and we have what we are looking for as a first-round player. There are shades of gray here, and I believe I will stop short of calling him my top wide receiver (look below). But for now, allow me to give him the coveted HIGH FIRST-ROUND grade. This guy seems to belong in that Julio/Amari class of Alabama prospects, and both of them went near the very top of their drafts.
CeeDee Lamb — Oklahoma — 6’2 — 189
Looking at Lamb and Jeudy in the same week is an absolute pleasure, because both players are absolute studs who deserve all the hype they have been given. We often wonder about evaluations of Big 12 wide receivers for a few reasons, but Oklahoma plays enough out-of-conference heavyweights to feel great about what you see on the tape. Cedarian (CeeDee) Lamb never won that Biletnikoff Award, but I think you could easily have made the case that he could have done so in either 2018 or 2019. Instead, he settled for demonstrating All-American credentials and excelling with three different QBs in three seasons.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: I do think the biggest positive about CeeDee is, in fact, it didn’t matter who was throwing him the ball or how defenses tried to take him out of the game. He was a productive wide receiver from the moment he arrived in Norman and pretty much never slowed down. To amass over 3,200 yards and 32 touchdowns in three seasons says all you need to know. But on tape it is clear that his ball skills are elite, and he absolutely attacks the ball and then the defense with a confidence level you admire. He is so strong for his size, something that can be seen often as defenses try to corral him and contain him from another big play. He has jet sweep and swing pass ability, but he is just so scary in space. Sometimes, as Texas will confirm, he just cannot be tackled. He has nitro, too. Lots of nitro. His hips and sharpness are really impressive.
Concerns: There are a few concerns that normally go with being a Big 12 wide receiver, and the most important one is that he always was given free releases, as almost nobody challenges receivers with press coverage at that level. Of course, he may have the answer to that question, but it is obviously unknown. Also, I did see the ball come loose a bit with ball security when he is fighting for every yard, and nothing can turn a coaching staff off quite like carelessness with the ball. Nothing major, mind you, but a few rough edges.
Overall: I could not believe how impressive his tape was even though I witnessed a large part of his college career. To sit down and just soak it in for a few hours in this process reminded me of what a special player he truly seems to be. The Texas game will be the lasting memory, as you might be hard-pressed to recall a more impressive performance from a wide receiver who seemed to nearly single-handedly win that game. But he had so many massive moments in games of great import that we must conclude he is a prospect with almost no questions. I am calling Lamb my top wide receiver, and he gets the HIGH FIRST-ROUND grade.
Jalen Reagor — TCU — 5’11 — 195
Reagor is a Metroplex product from Waxahachie High School – where he played for Jon Kitna – before crossing DFW to TCU, where he certainly put together some impressive work. He won Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the year in 2017 and then All-Big 12 honors (second team) in both 2018 and 2019. Reagor also won the gold medal in long jump at the 2017 Texas High School state meet, which demonstrates the elite athleticism we are looking at here.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: We live in a time when teams have seen that the more explosive weapons they can stick out on the field together, the more impossible it becomes to slow them down. Reagor is probably the fastest prospect that the draft will put in the NFL this year – at least among the top group of players – and he showed it time and time again. He attacks every part of your defense and puts everyone on their heels. There is a chance that he could offer some real DeSean Jackson elements to your team with deep shots and the quick game. The acceleration is insane; he goes 0-to-100 real quick. If you are looking to add some juice to your operation, this is your guy on both offense and special teams.
Concerns: Here is the thing about Jalen Reagor: He played for a TCU offense that has dealt with some QB issues as of late, and especially in 2019, when his production fell through the floor. Turn the tape on, and you find it difficult to fully evaluate how well Reagor could play because they were bouncing passes to him and overthrowing him by several yards. The TCU passers just couldn’t get him the ball down the field very often or very effectively. My concerns about him outside the QB issues at TCU would be these: I think he has some route-tree limitations, and I also think his catch radius is smaller than I would prefer, meaning contested catches and inside work might be difficult at the next level. He also had some ball-security issues that are not uncommon with his size.
Overall: It is important to remember this tweet from Chris Trapasso from CBS: Jalen Reagor (611 yds) accounted for basically the same % of TCU’s receiving yds — 25% — as Justin Jefferson (1,540 yds) did for LSU this past season — 25.5%. Once we get past the 2019 production and wonder what he might have looked like at LSU or Alabama, we can see his true tools. I like Reagor, and he belongs in this discussion. However, there are a number of questions that for me suggest some level of concern. Not a huge one, mind you, but enough to make him more of a SECOND-ROUND grade, which is where Mecole Hardman went last year (pick No. 56 to Kansas City). To me, that might be the comp that I like the most for Reagor.
Henry Ruggs — Alabama — 6’0 — 190
Ruggs is another weapon out of that Crimson Tide program, and he won’t have to wait very long to be taken. As you might imagine after watching his tape, Ruggs holds the state record for the 100-meter dash in Alabama as a high school track athlete. If anyone is up for a foot race with Reagor, it would be him. He was a basketball-first guy for much of his youth, but upon dedicating himself to football, he is now in the mix to earn quite a living at the next level.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Again, it isn’t hard to catch Alabama games in the fall in high-visibility settings, and when you did, it wasn’t difficult to see Ruggs doing something pretty remarkable that included unreal speed and yards after the catch. He has an awful lot of explosiveness and it is best defined with a crazy statistic: 100 touches in college that resulted in 25 touchdowns. Are you kidding me? That ratio is almost too ridiculous to comprehend. But there is more to it than just stats. He is a very brave player who seems willing, at his size, to go over the middle without regard. He is a wonderful horizontal threat as well as a vertical scare. We don’t know how to project his modest college production, but he proved to be a real home-run hitter indeed. He seems perfect for the modern era, as he may be a perfect game-breaker moving forward.
Concerns: Ruggs might have only been the fourth-best Alabama wideout in 2019. I know that might be hard to believe, but I think it is true. He really had a hard time making consistent downfield catches, and he doesn’t fully appear to be a slot option. In other words, by traditional standards, we must ask what he is and how he fits. He probably isn’t an every-down threat, and he probably isn’t a “take the top off the defense” guy, either. I am not sure he has the normal utility you want in a top offensive weapon at all. And his production was quite modest: He averaged about 2.5 touches per game for his entire Alabama stay.
Overall: Basically, it comes down to this. If you can utilize what he CAN do and ignore what he CANNOT, you have an advantage in his evaluation. Every year, sports shows us there are times you better be able to think outside the box, and with Ruggs, you better be able to see that. It is a risk, and it requires the right scheme to invest in a player that might have traditional limitations, but he is a threat to take it to the house every time when you get him the ball in space. Can he improve? Probably. As it stands, I think he is in that FIRST-SECOND ROUND range, and probably a late first/early second selection.
Laviska Shenault — Colorado — 6’2 — 225
Here is yet another future member of our All-DFW NFL team, as Shenault is a proud product of DeSoto High School and had a fine run there before heading to Colorado in 2017 for college. He was certainly productive in his final two years with his own QB and offensive limitations after barely playing as a true freshman. He is yet another of the many junior talents who have declared early to enter this draft.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: If some of the others on this list require a look at the future and modernization of the NFL, allow me to say that Shenault appeals to that Dez Bryant prototype, where you can overpower defenders who are usually 25 to 30 pounds lighter outside and just bully them with a combination of size and speed that’s difficult to contain. He is a hybrid who could likely have been a running back if he were asked, or maybe even a tight end. But as a wide receiver, you are taken by his ability to make space and then go get the ball. Deebo Samuel offered a similar profile, and his rookie season showed that value. He is a really big and impressive player who also can be plenty slippery in space. He also offers a real look of toughness and fight.
Concerns: His 40-time will not blow you away, and I will also compare him to that Dez Bryant 4.5-to-4.6-speed range. He makes up for it with great short-area quickness, but there is not a ton of burst off his release, and he might be a bit more of a plodding type who makes his own space. That said, I don’t want to suggest that any of this is too negative. The primary concern is playing in just 27 games in three seasons, as he had a number of nagging injuries that caused him to miss time. Nothing serious, I believe, but availability is a very important ability.
Overall: I admit I am a sucker for this type of player, and I think he will draw plenty of penalties and remain a red-zone threat at the NFL level. He isn’t perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but he also can help make plays in that old traditional way, as NFL teams account for the smaller WRs. If the NFL goes too far in one direction, you can see how Shenault, in the right offense, can help remind you why some bullies in your secondary are needed to not get overrun. I also don’t want to make you think he is like a tight end; there is plenty of quickness and twitch, but he will not win a 40-yard sprint with these other prospects. I like him plenty and will put him with Ruggs in that FIRST-SECOND ROUND grade area, and if asked to break the tie, I would lean to him slightly over Ruggs.
My Week 3 Wide Receiver stack looks like this:
