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By Bob Sturm Jan 30, 2020
As has been our tradition since 2012, I will take a look at five key prospects at a given positional group each week during the buildup to the NFL Draft. The hope is to cover what we perceive to be the very best players available — as well as the Dallas Cowboys’ positions of greatest need in the first three rounds — using about 200 snaps of the most recent college tape from each of the prospects. I am certainly not an NFL scout, but I have found over the years that much can be learned by giving each player a couple of hours and really studying how he might fit at the next level. With a little luck, we will be plenty familiar with the options when the draft arrives in late April.
18 years. It may be hard for everyone to believe this is even a possibility, but 18 years have passed since the Dallas Cowboys picked Roy Williams in the 2002 NFL Draft — otherwise known as the last time the Cowboys decided to spend significant resources on the safety position.
Since this is the week we dive into a rich safety crop, and since the Cowboys don’t appear to have any Earl Thomas/Jamal Adams-caliber upgrades on the horizon, it is always interesting to remind you, the dear reader and Dallas Cowboys enthusiast, that this franchise simply hasn’t seen fit to invest in the safety position since Williams’ tenure. I believe that will finally change this year.
Causally, I refer to it as the “Roy Williams Rule,” since owner & GM Jerry Jones clearly felt burnt when Roy’s career came to an abrupt halt after beginning with five Pro Bowl seasons in his first six years as a Cowboy.
Here is what I wrote on this very topic in 2018 when we discussed this odd directive a few years ago:
Once upon a time, the Cowboys invested heavily in a safety. He was one of the biggest names in the draft after being one of the biggest in all of college football, and for a few years, everyone was quite pleased with how the Cowboys spent the eighth pick in the 2002 draft. They were not concerned that the next safety taken was one of the best to ever play the game.
Roy went to several Pro Bowls. He was featured in commercials and on the cover of a video game. He sold jerseys and was on his way to “face of the franchise” status. However, slowly but surely, the league began to see that Roy Williams had some real issues when asked to cover receivers or even a deep zone. He could definitely make incredible straight-line plays and read QBs very well, but when he had to change directions in a hurry, the NFL began to learn that it wasn’t something his hips would allow him to do.
This led to him anticipating (or guessing, based on perspective) from time to time, making him extra-vulnerable to double moves. Bill Parcells reportedly wanted to make him a Linebacker because of this issue but explaining why a perennial pro bowler has to change positions didn’t make sense to anyone – especially Bill’s boss. Once Darren Woodson retired, it was all but over for Williams and the career headed in the wrong direction fast. He was gone from Dallas by the time he was 28. It happened so fast.
Where am I going with all of this? It has always been my premise that the Cowboys draft room (Jerry Jones) lost interest in drafting a safety early because of the investment – and disappointment – in Roy Williams.
Since 2002, I can only find one safety selected by the Cowboys in the first 125 picks of any draft: JJ Wilcox, 80th overall from Georgia Southern in 2013.
Here are all of the safeties the Cowboys have drafted from Williams to now, courtesy of our friends at ProFootballReference.com:
| Year▲ | Rnd | Pick | Player | Pos | College/Univ | PB | CarAV | G | GS | Int | Sk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 1 | 8 | Roy Williams | DB | Oklahoma | 5 | 56 | 114 | 110 | 20 | 7.5 |
| 2005 | 6 | 208 | Justin Beriault | DB | Ball St. | 0 | |||||
| 2006 | 5 | 138 | Pat Watkins | DB | Florida St. | 0 | 7 | 53 | 10 | 4 | |
| 2009 | 5 | 166 | Michael Hamlin | DB | Clemson | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | ||
| 2010 | 4 | 126 | Akwasi Owusu-Ansah | DB | Indiana (PA) | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | ||
| 2012 | 4 | 135 | Matt Johnson | DB | East. Washington | 0 | 0 | ||||
| 2013 | 3 | 80 | J.J. Wilcox | DB | Georgia Southern | 0 | 16 | 77 | 39 | 6 | |
| 2014 | 7 | 248 | Ahmad Dixon | DB | Baylor | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ||
| 2016 | 6 | 212 | Kavon Frazier | S | Central Michigan | 0 | 3 | 44 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2017 | 6 | 191 | Xavier Woods | S | Louisiana Tech | 0 | 13 | 45 | 33 | 5 | |
| 2019 | 6 | 213 | Donovan Wilson | S | Texas A&M | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
One interesting wrinkle: The Cowboys actually did target and sign young Andrew Sendejo out of Rice in 2010 and had him through their 2011 training camp before throwing him back in the free-agent pool. He ended up in Minnesota that year, provided them a very good starting safety for several seasons and still bounced from Philadelphia back to Minnesota this year. Consider him alongside Barry Church and Jeff Heath, and it is likely that the best safeties the Cowboys have found through the college ranks since Williams were all undrafted.
I cannot promise you that there is really an embargo against using resources on safeties. Recently, I heard a discussion between some media colleagues I respect, and they were listing the “five premium positions” that NFL teams can and do pay big money for. The list included QB, WR, LT, CB and edge rusher (DE/OLB). I don’t disagree with these positions being the cornerstones of any winner, but I also see elite safety play as an equalizer when discussing takeaways. You cannot tell me the ball-hawks who have played this position over the years at very high levels have not helped their teams achieve takeaways on a year-in, year-out basis. In fact, it is pretty easy to trace takeaways back to individuals, and safeties are often the league leaders in interceptions. They also come up with their share of fumbles.
The Dallas Cowboys have the 26th-most takeaways over the last 10 seasons with 219, nearly 20 full takeaways behind the league average of 237 over that span. That differential comes out to two takeaways per season. The top 10 teams in this category average 270 each, which put them nearly 50 takeaways (five per season) ahead of the Cowboys. If we believe that nothing correlates to winning better than the turnover margin in today’s NFL — and we see that the safety position is where many of these are generated — are we comfortable suggesting that playing replacement-level players at this spot might have something to do with the Cowboys being in the bottom 25 percent of the league in a vital statistic?
I have banged the safety-improvement drum for years and years. My percussive call has largely been ignored. Perhaps this is the year they will properly invest. History tells us they probably won’t, but we shall soon find out.
With all of that said, let’s find out what 2020 has available. It is very impressive at the top.
In alphabetical order, they are:
Ashytn Davis — California — 6’1 — 200
Davis is the rare redshirt senior who has been playing for the Cal Bears for several seasons now after starting as a pure walk-on from the track team and rising all the way to First Team All-Pac 12 with his play on the back end. You won’t find players with this much college experience under his belt at this position very often, as he is virtually a full four-year starter with some very high-quality play under his belt.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: It all starts with how Davis moves and gets where he needs to go, with exceptional range and the ability to go from deep center field to the sideline when he is the last line of defense to make a play. In today’s game, it certainly starts with that flash ability to get where you need to be. Davis can do that all day long. He also seems to key and diagnose at a very high level, and he can certainly make the tackle that is needed in the open field. He can get down in the box and make his mark with physicality and is more than happy to tackle. He also adds some value as a kick and punt returner.
Concerns: The concerns will be that he is a bit inexperienced — at safety in particular — as he did not play much football prior to his stint at California, and when he did, it was on the offensive side of the ball. He then transitioned for three years at Cal as a cornerback before finding this current home. Will that hold up at the NFL level against far more complex offensive attacks? While he seems the type who can play up at the line of scrimmage or in the box some, his best fit is deep. He is also a pretty old prospect at age 23.5 by draft day.
Overall: I see Davis as a very decent prospect who has a solid combination of traits and instincts. I do have some reservations about his ceiling at the NFL level relative to the other players we will look at today, but I have no problem grabbing him in that SECOND-THIRD ROUND area if some of the better options are already off the board. Davis is a solid prospect, but might lack the highest upside that I continue to seek.
Grant Delpit — LSU — 6’3 — 205
Very few players at this position are as well known as Delpit, after playing in many high-profile games and contributing to a tremendous number of big moments and plays. That erases the need for a significant introduction. He is a New Orleans native who starred at LSU on a national title team and even wore the famous #7 jersey in 2019, which is certainly representative of someone who wants to be a key team leader on a program with significant tradition.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Delpit’s positives are easy to see. He has the ability to make magnificent game-changing plays that are rather clear and obvious when you watch LSU games (like we all did). What are his specific positives? Well, he has range, he finds the ball with great ease, he blitzes well, his disposition is fantastic and he can play in man coverage like a glove close to the line of scrimmage, or he can be in center field or 2-high and generally do very well. If this contest is about the highest ceiling, he won’t finish behind many.
Concerns: What makes Delpit a controversial prospect is that he certainly appears frustrating on some plays. He misses tackles in the open field and sometimes will misdiagnose deep balls. He also gets banged up quite a bit, a result of a player with his disposition and size combination trying to play with reckless abandon. This sport takes a toll on bodies, and his has been compromised a few times by health. It has affected his play. I believe the scheme caused many of the missed tackles, as he would have to come from deep safety to make a tackle in the flat on quick screens, but nobody wants to see a missed tackle in space and he had a few too many. Also, like almost every ball-hawk, he will gamble and get it wrong sometimes. He would not be considered a “safe” safety.
Overall: Delpit is absolutely going to be a lightning rod player in this draft and already is among Cowboys fans and media. Some love him, and some find too many issues. I will tell you that aside from his health, I am a huge fan. I think if he can stay healthy as a pro, he can be among the best safeties in the league and a huge upgrade for Dallas. For a team lacking takeaways, he is worth strong consideration. But we have to weigh both sides of things, and for that reason I would give him the FIRST-SECOND ROUND grade, which slots him between picks 20-40.
Xavier McKinney — Alabama — 6’1 — 200
McKinney is the latest off the conveyor belt at Alabama as another prospect who entered the college ranks with a very high reputation and leaves in equally high regard by most. Now, he turns his attentions to Sundays. He has certainly played big in the largest situations and is well prepared for the next level.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: If you are looking for strictly a coverage safety — and we can easily make the case that in today’s game, this is the best place to start — then McKinney could very well be the best of the bunch. He knows what he is doing in the secondary at a very high level, sees things and reacts well. He can also cover in the slot like a cornerback and never looks overmatched between his positioning and technique.
Concerns: I think there are a few things to look at here, as I find him to be a relatively average athlete among players on this particular list, but will need to confirm at the combine. His tape does not necessarily flash that he is a “special athletic traits” guy. He also is not a big hammer in the secondary, missed plenty of tackles (especially in 2018) and is not near the ball-hawk as others like Delpit, in my opinion. Now, I should be clear in saying it is very possible he was being coached in a certain style that is intuitive for Alabama: “Do your job and the plays will come. Don’t freelance into mistakes.” There is also no real blitz component apparent in his tape, save for a snap here and there.
Overall: McKinney is a very fine player and certainly holds his own on that Alabama defense. I do think he is a much safer prospect than Delpit in that he is a very safe safety in terms of understanding the idea of being the last line of defense. In some ways, that makes him more valuable, and in other ways, that makes him less valuable. Call it a lower ceiling and higher floor. Each team has different preferences for that, but I will always err on the side of the play-making safety (provided he makes enough of them). He might be that guy, but I think there are better examples of those who already are. That is why I would rank Delpit above McKinney, who I have in the SECOND ROUND.
Isaiah Simmons — Clemson — 6’4 — 225
Of all the players who might need no introduction on the defensive side of the ball (non-Chase Young division) I assume Simmons is probably first in line. He is a sight to behold and does it all for a Clemson defense that has been atop college football’s heavyweight division for most of his Clemson career. He literally does everything in a way that makes finding an NFL comp difficult.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: I could go on for quite a while in this category and basically tell you that there might not be a position on the defense behind the DL where Simmons could not be great. This is Derwin James/Jalen Ramsey stuff, but perhaps even more impressively, he can also play several different LB/edge positions in doses, too. He can do everything from locking up as a corner in man (if you wanted) to deep safety to box safety to edge rusher to middle linebacker and on and on. He is phenomenal, with elite size paired with incredible speed and long arms. He might be about the best hybrid draft prospect I have seen in quite a while. When you can rush the passer and tackle the runner like a linebacker but run like a defensive back, you have value.
Concerns: The only concern I would have is that his new team might not figure out how to use him in the best possible way. I hesitate in saying a prospect has no concerns, so I suppose we don’t know how well he would get off blocks if you played him regularly at inside LB, but Clemson really couldn’t find a place where he wasn’t dominant.
Overall: He checks every box in a way that causes me to stress that we don’t overthink this one. Simmons is a top-five prospect in this draft. That doesn’t mean he will go top five, because who knows how many QBs get pushed up into that space? But, for now, I have no issue at all giving Simmons a HIGH FIRST-ROUND grade and suggest the only way he gets to the Cowboys is if they trade a ton to go get him. Just hope he isn’t playing in the NFC East.
Antoine Winfield Jr — Minnesota — 5’10 — 205
Winfield is a standout defensive back who is the son of one of the best defensive backs of the last generation and now has made his own name as a 2019 All-American as well as the Big 10 Defensive Back of the Year. He just declared after a standout season in which he nearly led the nation in interceptions (ultimately finishing fourth).
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Winfield is another versatile player who has many of his father’s attributes, in that he can find the ball, make plays, cover well and, as was his dad’s biggest trademark, tackle at a very high level. When you watched Minnesota last year, it was evident this was a true leader in their secondary who helped organize the defense. But he also demonstrated how the game should be played, with his own willingness to stick his nose into trouble and make plays that might require a bit of abandon. I loved how he flew around the field and found the ball and took plays personally. He is a blur on deep blitzes and hustles his tail off while providing some real quality as a kid who just understands football at a high level. I really like him.
Concerns: As his stats above clearly show, he ended both 2017 and 2018 with injuries after four games. One clear way to hurt one’s draft stock is with durability questions. Also, he is well under 6’0, which also will cause some questions that can be answered at the combine. We need to know about his health and his measurables, but beyond that, I would be very happy to have his stock in my portfolio.
Overall: I have not heard near the buzz on Winfield as many of the others in this group, and I just want to suggest that I would be fine with putting him right up there in the mix. I think Winfield’s bloodlines might be affecting me a small amount, because his father’s style was a real favorite, but I submit to you the apple has not fallen too far from the tree. This is a significant player whom I will be happy to put into my SECOND ROUND group.
In closing, here is how my stack of safeties appear after looking at these five:
I will certainly look at a few more safeties as we continue to march toward around 60 prospects in total, but that is plenty for this week.
