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By Bob Sturm Feb 20, 2020
Each week during the buildup to the NFL Draft, as has been our tradition since 2012, we will take a look at five of the key prospects at a given positional group. The hope is to cover what we perceive as the very best players in this spring’s draft, as well as the Dallas Cowboys’ positions of greatest need in the first three rounds, using about 200 snaps of the most recent college tape from each of the prospects. I am certainly not an NFL scout, but I have found over the years that much can be learned from giving each player a couple of hours and really studying how he might fit at the next level. With a little luck, we will be plenty familiar with the options when the draft arrives in late April.
Every year, questions roll in during draft season about the “deepest positions in the draft.” Every year, the crop of youngsters obviously affects all of that. There are years when the yield at a certain position is minimal, and other years when it bubbles over.
But aside from that normal annual round of questions, you can know this one simple truth: There are always wide receivers in the top 100. Always.
In fact, the lowest number of wide receivers in the top 100 of any draft in the last decade is nine (in 2016). The most: 16 (in 2014). The average per year is 12.5 – comfortably the most for any position.
In 2019, 13 wide receivers were chosen in the top 100, which was the most of any position group. There were 11 corners, 11 linebackers and 11 tackles, but the annual leaders remain pass catchers.
Clearly, it is not all apples to apples. The more offenses evolve, the more the NFL needs wide receivers. They used to have two on the field at the same time. and now three is the norm. Teams like Arizona are trying to make four wide receivers the new normal, and it is possible all tight ends and fullbacks will continue to become wideouts.
Here is the 2019 positional breakdown of Top 100.
This will clearly fluctuate from year to year. More often than not, though, we can safely say that the college football world cannot provide elite talent at every spot every year, but it very certainly does provide pass catchers on an annual basis. They have provided a style of play at the college level that the NFL is absolutely appropriating, and the talent is bountiful.
Heck, as you can see on Dane Brugler’s feed, the number in this year’s top 100 borders on silly:
How does this apply to the Dallas Cowboys? What is their history with top-100 wide receivers? For purpose of finding an arbitrary starting point, let’s go back to 1988, when the Cowboys chose Michael Irvin at No. 11 as the third WR taken in that draft (behind Tim Brown and Sterling Sharpe). There is no question that was the best of the bunch in Cowboys draft history, but check out the pick with the most career yardage from our chart:
That’s right: former Cowboys great Jimmy Smith actually beat Irvin by about 300 yards. He had zero career catches with Dallas and was injured for a full season before he emerged in Jacksonville and played at a very high level for a very long time.
Beyond that, the Cowboys have pretty much avoided wide receivers the top 100 since Jimmy Johnson left town. There have been only five since then in almost three decades. Stepfret Williams was pick #94 and brought almost nothing to the mix; Antonio Bryant had a very interesting career, to say the least; and then come the three modern pass catchers who we all know well: Dez Bryant in Round 1 of 2010, Terance Williams in Round 3 of 2013 and Michael Gallup in Round 3 of 2018. I think we would have to call all three reasonably successful picks, and Gallup seems to already have a chance at exceeding all reasonable expectations for a player picked 81st overall.
Regardless, as we pointed out last week, Gallup is pretty much the only receiver of note the Cowboys have under contract. So if they added another one on the first two days this year, it would absolutely be welcome and needed.
And this year, like so many years before it, the crop is again stacked. We looked at five last week. Here come five more who are very impressive prospects.
In alphabetical order, they are:
Brandon Aiyuk — Arizona State — 6’1 — 206
Aiyuk is a player I certainly didn’t have on my radar six months ago, but that hardly makes me an exception, as he has emerged almost completely on the merits of his 2019 season at Arizona State. He began his career at a junior college for two years before looking for a school that did not want him to be merely a return specialist or a defensive player. ASU agreed to let him play wide receiver, which certainly looks wise now as he was first-team All Pac-12 this year behind a monster season both as a receiver and a devastating returner, too.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: If you are looking for wild amounts of juice and the ability to turn any play into a big play, Aiyuk deserves plenty of consideration, as he did that over and over again last season with a twitchy, active build that combines good size and fantastic explosion. He plays with great confidence and never goes down easy. His routes are solid enough, but what makes him special is the suddenness he plays with and the flair for the dramatic, as he made big catch after big catch in a series of close games. Whether it was against Oregon State, Michigan State, Oregon or almost any tape you grab, Aiyuk is there late in the fourth quarter being asked to save the day. That might not be a very repeatable skill, but you have to love that he is not scared of the big stage and that he knows how to make that play late in games when the legs are heavy. And, of course, if you take Aiyuk, you also get the added incentive of some excellent return skills in both punt and kick returns. Potentially elite speed. His combine performance will be interesting.
Concerns: Again, it was less than two years ago when teams wanted to convert him into a defensive back, so I feel like I must be missing something that these major universities saw. Inexperience and the technical finer points of being a top receiver may have to be developed at the NFL level, but we should not be afraid of that at all. He does need to be more mindful of ball security because as the video shows, he can certainly stand to secure the ball a bit more rather than hold it away from his body, as he will do. But, for the most part, I have few reservations. I saw the occasional drop from running before the catch, but nothing terribly significant here.
Overall: This league continues to covet top-level athleticism, and this man makes plays on a regular basis. You certainly wish he had a large body of work, but when you can see he takes the top off the defense, has really impressive size and then converts your special teams up a grade or two, it becomes obvious that he will get pushed up boards. I have no problem seeing him in that late-first, early-second that a FIRST-SECOND-ROUND grade should dictate. I can’t see him sliding to No. 51. This is a nice player.
KJ Hamler — Penn State — 5’9 — 176
Hamler faced adversity in 2016-17 with an ACL injury that greatly limited his development for a while but responded after his redshirt year with the single biggest all-purpose yard season of any freshman in Penn State history (breaking Saquon Barkley’s mark) in 2018. He then topped all of those marks in 2019 as a redshirt sophomore and decided it was time to head to the NFL. He is certainly part of the new trend of looking for any player of his size who proves elusive in the open field.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Hamler has incredible speed and quickness, providing huge burst for a tiny man. He backs off defensive backs who are bracing for the top-end speed and that allows plenty of easy catches and the ability to move the chains just because of the threat of his top gear. He can win over the top, which is certainly not a given for his group, but he has this ability to get deep and beat you that way in a style reminiscent of a Tyreek Hill. He was productive and offers slants and drags and crossers all day long, and then hits the gas on a deep shot, too. He is quick out of routes and can convert plays on the edge into seven points if he breaks that first tackle. He is a scary mismatch out of the slot.
Concerns: The concerns with Hamler are certainly present, and the issue with the simple ability to look comfortable catching passes and securing the ball in traffic emerged over and over. He is a terrific talent, but between the drops and the ball coming loose, you can see that ball security is a massive component of a little man excelling at the major college and NFL levels. We also don’t know how much versatility he provides, as he appears to be a slot-only weapon and that will limit the amount of damage you can do with him. He has exceptional potential, but there are some concerns to work through when considering this player.
Overall: I feel that one of the effects of the higher ranks of football trying to eliminate the kill shots to players means that teams look for smaller players more and more often in an attempt to provide electric threats all over the offense. But the question then becomes how many can take the new opportunity to their maximum ability and have bodies that can still withstand the punishment while not coughing up the ball. Hamler is on the edge for me, because he can be special. Now we have to see at what level. I have him as a SECOND-ROUND player and in a similar range as TCU’s Jalen Reagor, but a slight step below.
Tee Higgins — Clemson — 6’4 — 205
The league may be moving in one direction towards speed and elusiveness, but let us not forget that the game is always looking for the classic prototype of a lanky, 6’4 downfield weapon who can simply out-size defensive players at the high point. Clemson’s playmaker, who can personally account for 25 touchdowns and over 2,000 yards in the last two seasons, is yet another top-level wide receiver in this crop who must be strongly considered. The first-team All-ACC threat skipped his final year to declare for this draft.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Higgins is a 6’4 weapon with an enormous catch radius who is able to grab passes and convert them for touchdowns. He has great hands and looks so natural while using muscle to get position – even though he generally has position because of his wingspan. For a big man, I really like his ability to get into his route and get that edge on a dig or out that presents a fine target for the QB, and then finishes the play. He tracks the ball so well, and then either finishes the play or draws contact and then a flag. Higgins is a force to be reckoned with.
Concerns: The concerns with Higgins do exist, but I am not sure they are significant. You wish he was a bit more “sudden” out of his breaks, and while we want to see his combine performance, this is a great case of trusting the tape and understanding that, sometimes, men of size look like they are almost too casual in their route running. Instead, we want them to look as busy as the small guys, and we penalize a smooth athlete for making it look too easy. Does he have the speed he will need? That’s a fair question, but beyond that, this is plenty of nitpicking about a huge playmaker.
Overall: I think it is awfully easy for us to overlook someone who has been in front of our face in the entire process and look for a deeper cut down the list. In this case, if you want the simple, old school, devastating outside threat who can battle any coverage at a high level, you don’t need to look beyond Higgins and his impressive three-year resume. I have no issue issuing a FIRST-ROUND grade for this player.
Justin Jefferson — LSU — 6’3 — 192
The aerial show at LSU this season was certainly televised, and when Joe Burrow was throwing his 60 touchdowns, several of his weapons emerged. Almost none of them had a bigger impression than Jefferson, who moved primarily to the slot and then led the country in receptions in what was far and away his most prolific season. His 18 touchdowns from the slot position put him in very elite company as he heads to the next level.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Jefferson provides what you are looking for over the middle in many of today’s top offenses, as he gets open, plays tough and gives you the ability to both move the chains and to punish teams downfield with an array of traits that are difficult to deal with. He can be a short-area threat and a high volume player who will block, but the moment you sit on a short route, he burns you badly with an over route or a seam play that can be devastating. He was mostly outside in 2018 – so we know that he can do it – but in 2019, he was all between the numbers. He has really deceptive movements, which helped him deal with double teams. He snatches the ball comfortably and takes hits with a smile. He looks like a name to know moving forward.
Concerns: The concerns with Jefferson will be based on what sort of times he can run at the combine, which will affect how highly he will be taken. When there are this many fine receivers bunched together in the top 100, running a 4.49 versus a 4.59 can make a difference of a round or so, but Jefferson put enough fine tape out there this season to know he can play the game at a top level. How fast he runs will ultimately determine what the league thinks about his downfield ability and the chances to win matchups on Sundays down the road. The rest of it looks pretty clear.
Overall: Next week will be a better time to feel great conviction when offering a final grade on someone like Jefferson, but I think his range is somewhere between Round 1 and late Round 2, and will largely depend on whether the league thinks he can be just a zone-beater or whether his speed makes him a weapon against any and all. For me, I am willing to say I would attempt to ignore the testing (mostly) and offer a FIRST-SECOND-ROUND grade off his tape. He is excellent.
Michael Pittman — USC — 6’4 — 215
Pittman is the son of the former Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB of the same name and generated a very big senior season at USC in a less-than-ideal QB season. He considered entering the 2019 draft but then decided to return and seems to have really enhanced his draft stock with an All-Pac 12 season that made him a finalist for the Fred Biletnikoff Award.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Every year, it seems I find a player that most reminds me of Dez Bryant, and I think I would say Pittman wins the award in 2020. (Be warned: That often does not mean much, as none of these guys ever turn into Dez). He is big, has excellent hands and runs a small number of routes at an expert level. Pittman has a very large catch radius as he attacks the ball, moves with quickness and violence, and can dominate physically. Also, he can stack a corner and has a knack for body position. I was very impressed with what I was studying, especially given how chaotic quarterback play was at times for the Trojans. He tracks the ball well, high-points it and really beats down the corners.
Concerns: For the most part, he did not often have huge YAC plays and broken tackles for a man of his size and violence. We probably selected the wrong games, but the play above was a rarity. Often, he would make the catch and the play would generally end in that area. If he can add YAC to his arsenal, we will have a star player here. He certainly needs to manage the sidelines better, as he often would run routes that would not leave him room to complete the catch, and in the NFL, you need two feet in. Details. But, none of these issues are deal-breakers.
Overall: I have studied 10 wide receivers here at this point, and I have yet to find one who doesn’t look like he could help most teams. Pittman is the old-school outside pass-catcher who can run the go routes and the comebacks with a slant and dig, and wants the ball to come to him (in a good way). I really like what he brings to the table, but again, he will need to run a good time next week. I am willing to assign a FIRST-SECOND-ROUND grade for now.
My Week 4 receiver stack looks like this:
