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Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts: Week 18
A few more steps to the finish line; Dallas with a chance to sweep Washington in 2024
Bob Sturm
Jan 04, 2025
I am positive the NFL schedule makers did not plan for a Week 18 that has almost no games that matter much. In the pursuit of that 17th game and 18th week of the regular season where we play games No. 257-272 of the season slate, we have somehow managed to have about five games that mean anything and one game that seems to mean a lot. Otherwise, there are a bunch of games where we are just checking boxes so we may move along to the next phase. For many, that will be 2025. To others, it means preparation for next week’s playoffs have begun in earnest already.
We are here to make sure you have a little something to consider as we enter the final week of the season. If you are still reading my game previews a full two months after the season was pretty much over, you are a loyalist of both the Cowboys and my writing, so I want to let you know we are going to play this thing out and give it our all.
But, there is no doubt that my mind (and the organization’s mind) has moved to 2025 and how this particular game has very little to do with any of that.
That said, the opponent this week again demonstrates to us both that A) bad teams can stay bad for a long time and B) bad teams can flip it in one year and be right back in the hunt if they play a few cards correctly.
Washington is the only NFC team with a longer NFC Championship Game drought. At the same time, one year ago this week, Washington was losing its 8th straight game, firing another coach, and moving on from another failed QB. Now, they are expected to win their 12th game on Sunday in Dallas.
Things don’t have to be hopeless in this league.
Dave Campo could not win most games. But, if there was one thing he could always do, it was beat Washington. Campo went 5-1 against them over those three seasons where he went 10-32 against everyone else.
So, we have established for decades that the records and point spreads don’t matter in this series. Surely, Washington knows they can avoid a playoff opener in Philadelphia if they just beat a Dallas team that stinks.
But, can they?
These are my Cowboys-Commanders Pregame Three Thoughts:
When Dallas has the ball:
– The questions about this offense are clear and obvious. The answers are known only by the Jones Family right now. But, my first thought is that if I had to guess, this will be the last time we see Mike McCarthy’s play sheet on the Cowboys sideline.
Obviously, I could be very wrong. But, it just seems like all involved are about ready to move on from this era of Cowboys football. If you know me, you know I have no problem with Mike and always thought that many media people here never enjoyed him being here in the first place and giving him a fair chance. They, in turn, convince the public that this guy is not good enough and people then grow to use him as the current piñata for what annoys them about the Cowboys.
At a certain point, it just feels like time to move on and the body language from both sides seems to confirm. But, I could very well be seeing things that aren’t quite there.
But, either way, we do head to 2025 with the feeling that the offense needs to be reimagined. Look at any metric for the offense or the years guys on the offense are having and it hardly looks healthy:
The one good color on this entire list is sack avoidance and we know that is because Dallas was determined to get the ball out as soon as possible for the entire season – mainly because they did not trust their OL. So, given the lack of verticality and deep throws that demand protection, we are pretty cynical about that stat being more of a result of strategy than quality protection.
But, 25th or lower in:
I encourage you to read Ed Werder’s piece and the very reasonable premise of how to design the Cowboys offense and future around Dak Prescott. It is a solid essay.
Our feature Commanders on both sides of the ball will be free agent additions from last spring. We loved Frankie Luvu as a potential LB UFA add last spring – also Minnesota’s Blake Cashman was one of our guys – and both have been exceptional.
Check out Luvu’s big game against the Eagles in Week 16:
Guys like this cost money, mind you as the contract confirms: the Commanders signed Luvu to a three-year, $31m contract that includes $19m guaranteed, but to get a LB in his prime to run sideline to sideline will cost a bit. He has been excellent.
The weakness of the Commanders is still stopping the run, which is a Dan Quinn staple and then covering on the outside as he loves to play coverage. They still are awaiting a big contribution from former Saints Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore, whom they acquired for a 3rd, 4th, and 6th back at the deadline. He just hasn’t been healthy and they have had to keep nursing him for the post-season.
You may noticed above that Skyler put Cooper Rush as the QB on our graphic, but we have since found out about Cooper’s contractual incentive clauses and the $250k he stands to make if he plays the full game. And because of that, there is now plenty of info telling us they are switching to Trey Lance. This will only serve to frustrate fans on each side of the conversation, but I will resist the urge to spend much time on this. If they thought Lance was good, we would have seen much more of him for the last two months. We can only assume this is more ownership pettiness and nobody has got time for that right now.
Now, to the other direction…
When The Commanders have the ball:
– We have to admit that Kliff Kingsbury has done a tremendous job with a Washington offense that appears to still be ahead of schedule in rebuilding things around rookie phenom Jayden Daniels.
Let’s be pretty honest here, aside from Terry McLaurin, the Commanders skill position players have not really been highly regarded around the league as something formidable. It is what makes the conversations of Kingsbury, Kellen Moore, and Ben Johnson so interesting.
You see, if you hire any of them to run your offense, you should always ask yourself what they might do with “normal” levels of talent – because that is what you believe you can have by 2025. Conversely, if the only way to be great in your scheme is to replicate the Eagles or Lions personnel, then hiring Ben Johnson feels much less appealing.
Johnson has elite play at RB, WR, WR, TE, and OL. Kellen Moore has elite play at RB, WR, WR, TE, and OL. Kingsbury has neither of those two groups of playmakers. And neither does McCarthy. They both have an average OL and one excellent WR. I am not saying that should mean anything when it comes to whom you hire, but it is worth thinking about when we consider where they are this year.
But, here is how it matches up this year:
Our feature player in this offense this week is going to be their lead dog against the Falcons in that Sunday Night game. It is another free agent, but this was a 1-year, $1.3m veteran minimum deal for Olamide Zaccheaus.
He is a small weapon that Kingsbury can feed easy throws for Daniels that offer smallish chunks. In the last two weeks, Zaccheaus has caught 13 balls for 155 yards and 3 touchdowns.
In many ways, this has been missing from the Dallas defense since Cole Beasley and even that one year of Randall Cobb. But, for the Cowboys defense, it once again tells us the corners will be attacked – and anyone who watched the Eagles game knows that this is where you hammer Dallas this year. Also, this is why you can never have too many corners on your roster and on your draft board.
How many of the Cowboys 10 cornerbacks can you name? Take the quiz before you scroll down and see…
This is, of course, our last chance to see Micah Parsons play this season and those should be treasured. He hit the 50-sack in four years mark which is extremely rare and now needs a half-sack in this game to get to double-digits. I am positive that is important to him and I would say that this is a player-prop I am willing to suggest is assured to hit.
Answer from most snaps to least: Jourdan Lewis, Trevon Diggs, DaRon Bland, Amani Oruwariye, Caelen Carson, Israel Mukuamu, Josh Butler, Andrew Booth, Troy Pride, and CJ Goodwin. If you even got eight of them without looking, I should hire you to help me here at SturmStack.
And lastly,
–I think I can speak for every single one of us by saying it is good to finally put this season to bed. It feels like the world’s longest funeral and frankly it never offered much in terms of smiles after Week 1 in Cleveland. May Washington make this quick and painless for all involved.
I remember at camp thinking I have never felt more apathy for a season of Cowboys football than this one. And the team delivered on that apathy. It was a season without juice or optimism or smiles. And I would think that should be the takeaway for the Jones family.
They need to figure out how to resonate with its loyalists to help you guys find optimism again. That usually is simple, but they have made it complicated and difficult.
But, again, thanks to all of you who were always along for this ride. It definitely proves you are a die-hard.
In this game, Washington should win easily and move on. Our lesson from them is that next year it can all turn around to the right direction in a real hurry.
A few more steps to the finish line; Dallas with a chance to sweep Washington in 2024
Bob Sturm
Jan 04, 2025
I am positive the NFL schedule makers did not plan for a Week 18 that has almost no games that matter much. In the pursuit of that 17th game and 18th week of the regular season where we play games No. 257-272 of the season slate, we have somehow managed to have about five games that mean anything and one game that seems to mean a lot. Otherwise, there are a bunch of games where we are just checking boxes so we may move along to the next phase. For many, that will be 2025. To others, it means preparation for next week’s playoffs have begun in earnest already.
We are here to make sure you have a little something to consider as we enter the final week of the season. If you are still reading my game previews a full two months after the season was pretty much over, you are a loyalist of both the Cowboys and my writing, so I want to let you know we are going to play this thing out and give it our all.
But, there is no doubt that my mind (and the organization’s mind) has moved to 2025 and how this particular game has very little to do with any of that.
That said, the opponent this week again demonstrates to us both that A) bad teams can stay bad for a long time and B) bad teams can flip it in one year and be right back in the hunt if they play a few cards correctly.
Washington is the only NFC team with a longer NFC Championship Game drought. At the same time, one year ago this week, Washington was losing its 8th straight game, firing another coach, and moving on from another failed QB. Now, they are expected to win their 12th game on Sunday in Dallas.
Things don’t have to be hopeless in this league.
Dave Campo could not win most games. But, if there was one thing he could always do, it was beat Washington. Campo went 5-1 against them over those three seasons where he went 10-32 against everyone else.
So, we have established for decades that the records and point spreads don’t matter in this series. Surely, Washington knows they can avoid a playoff opener in Philadelphia if they just beat a Dallas team that stinks.
But, can they?
These are my Cowboys-Commanders Pregame Three Thoughts:
When Dallas has the ball:
– The questions about this offense are clear and obvious. The answers are known only by the Jones Family right now. But, my first thought is that if I had to guess, this will be the last time we see Mike McCarthy’s play sheet on the Cowboys sideline.
Obviously, I could be very wrong. But, it just seems like all involved are about ready to move on from this era of Cowboys football. If you know me, you know I have no problem with Mike and always thought that many media people here never enjoyed him being here in the first place and giving him a fair chance. They, in turn, convince the public that this guy is not good enough and people then grow to use him as the current piñata for what annoys them about the Cowboys.
At a certain point, it just feels like time to move on and the body language from both sides seems to confirm. But, I could very well be seeing things that aren’t quite there.
But, either way, we do head to 2025 with the feeling that the offense needs to be reimagined. Look at any metric for the offense or the years guys on the offense are having and it hardly looks healthy:
The one good color on this entire list is sack avoidance and we know that is because Dallas was determined to get the ball out as soon as possible for the entire season – mainly because they did not trust their OL. So, given the lack of verticality and deep throws that demand protection, we are pretty cynical about that stat being more of a result of strategy than quality protection.
But, 25th or lower in:
- Rushing Yards
- Giveaways
- 3rd Downs
- Red Zone
- Explosive Plays
- Time of Possession
I encourage you to read Ed Werder’s piece and the very reasonable premise of how to design the Cowboys offense and future around Dak Prescott. It is a solid essay.
Our feature Commanders on both sides of the ball will be free agent additions from last spring. We loved Frankie Luvu as a potential LB UFA add last spring – also Minnesota’s Blake Cashman was one of our guys – and both have been exceptional.
Check out Luvu’s big game against the Eagles in Week 16:
Guys like this cost money, mind you as the contract confirms: the Commanders signed Luvu to a three-year, $31m contract that includes $19m guaranteed, but to get a LB in his prime to run sideline to sideline will cost a bit. He has been excellent.
The weakness of the Commanders is still stopping the run, which is a Dan Quinn staple and then covering on the outside as he loves to play coverage. They still are awaiting a big contribution from former Saints Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore, whom they acquired for a 3rd, 4th, and 6th back at the deadline. He just hasn’t been healthy and they have had to keep nursing him for the post-season.
You may noticed above that Skyler put Cooper Rush as the QB on our graphic, but we have since found out about Cooper’s contractual incentive clauses and the $250k he stands to make if he plays the full game. And because of that, there is now plenty of info telling us they are switching to Trey Lance. This will only serve to frustrate fans on each side of the conversation, but I will resist the urge to spend much time on this. If they thought Lance was good, we would have seen much more of him for the last two months. We can only assume this is more ownership pettiness and nobody has got time for that right now.
Now, to the other direction…
When The Commanders have the ball:
– We have to admit that Kliff Kingsbury has done a tremendous job with a Washington offense that appears to still be ahead of schedule in rebuilding things around rookie phenom Jayden Daniels.
Let’s be pretty honest here, aside from Terry McLaurin, the Commanders skill position players have not really been highly regarded around the league as something formidable. It is what makes the conversations of Kingsbury, Kellen Moore, and Ben Johnson so interesting.
You see, if you hire any of them to run your offense, you should always ask yourself what they might do with “normal” levels of talent – because that is what you believe you can have by 2025. Conversely, if the only way to be great in your scheme is to replicate the Eagles or Lions personnel, then hiring Ben Johnson feels much less appealing.
Johnson has elite play at RB, WR, WR, TE, and OL. Kellen Moore has elite play at RB, WR, WR, TE, and OL. Kingsbury has neither of those two groups of playmakers. And neither does McCarthy. They both have an average OL and one excellent WR. I am not saying that should mean anything when it comes to whom you hire, but it is worth thinking about when we consider where they are this year.
But, here is how it matches up this year:
Our feature player in this offense this week is going to be their lead dog against the Falcons in that Sunday Night game. It is another free agent, but this was a 1-year, $1.3m veteran minimum deal for Olamide Zaccheaus.
He is a small weapon that Kingsbury can feed easy throws for Daniels that offer smallish chunks. In the last two weeks, Zaccheaus has caught 13 balls for 155 yards and 3 touchdowns.
In many ways, this has been missing from the Dallas defense since Cole Beasley and even that one year of Randall Cobb. But, for the Cowboys defense, it once again tells us the corners will be attacked – and anyone who watched the Eagles game knows that this is where you hammer Dallas this year. Also, this is why you can never have too many corners on your roster and on your draft board.
How many of the Cowboys 10 cornerbacks can you name? Take the quiz before you scroll down and see…
This is, of course, our last chance to see Micah Parsons play this season and those should be treasured. He hit the 50-sack in four years mark which is extremely rare and now needs a half-sack in this game to get to double-digits. I am positive that is important to him and I would say that this is a player-prop I am willing to suggest is assured to hit.
Answer from most snaps to least: Jourdan Lewis, Trevon Diggs, DaRon Bland, Amani Oruwariye, Caelen Carson, Israel Mukuamu, Josh Butler, Andrew Booth, Troy Pride, and CJ Goodwin. If you even got eight of them without looking, I should hire you to help me here at SturmStack.
And lastly,
–I think I can speak for every single one of us by saying it is good to finally put this season to bed. It feels like the world’s longest funeral and frankly it never offered much in terms of smiles after Week 1 in Cleveland. May Washington make this quick and painless for all involved.
I remember at camp thinking I have never felt more apathy for a season of Cowboys football than this one. And the team delivered on that apathy. It was a season without juice or optimism or smiles. And I would think that should be the takeaway for the Jones family.
They need to figure out how to resonate with its loyalists to help you guys find optimism again. That usually is simple, but they have made it complicated and difficult.
But, again, thanks to all of you who were always along for this ride. It definitely proves you are a die-hard.
In this game, Washington should win easily and move on. Our lesson from them is that next year it can all turn around to the right direction in a real hurry.
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