Here's why I have 0 respect for the Skins winning 11, maybe even 12 games, and expect them to max out next season at about 8 or 9 wins depending on what happens in FA and the draft:
-2 wins vs. Giants (currently 3-13 and 4th in the draft): in the first game the Giants lost their kicker early, had to go for 2 and 4th down's all game because they had nobody to kick XP's, and Nabers dropped a wide open 4th down conversion with about 2 minutes left that would've iced the game
-1 win vs. Titans (currently 3-13 and 3rd in the draft)
-1 win vs. Browns (finished 3-14 and will end up with a top 4 pick)
-1 win vs. Panthers (currently 4-12 and 6th in the draft)
-1 win vs. Bears (currently 4-12 and 9th in the draft, won due to a miracle hail mary)
-1 win vs. Saints (currently 5-11 and 10th in the draft, were a last second 2-point conversion away from losing to Spencer Rattler who has looked like an XFL QB in the two games afterwards)
-1 win vs. Eagles after Hurts went out with a concussion on like the second drive, looked to be cruising for a blowout as the Eagles were up 14-3 when Hurts went out, and despite all that the Eagles were set to ice it when Devonta Smith dropped a wide open 5-yard slant with about 2 minutes left that he probably catches 998 times out of 1,000
That's 7 wins against the literal 10 worst teams in the league, including one off a hail mary, and another because a starting QB went out early in a game that looked like it'd be a blowout.
Their only somewhat respectable wins were against the Cardinals who will finish below .500, the Bengals early in the year who might finish 9-8, and the Falcons with Penix making his 2nd career start, and their backup kicker coming up about 2 yards short of a walk-off winner.
Based on the eye test they look like a 8ish win team who has had a ridiculously soft schedule (literally 31st SoS) and an extreme run of luck.