Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts: Week 12
Dallas travels to meet back up with plenty of old friends in Washington for a divisional battle the home side needs.
Bob Sturm
Nov 23, 2024
Dan Quinn is back in our lives this weekend, and to be fair, I miss him. He has always seemed to be a guy who understands—most likely because Pete Carroll teaches this course like few others ever have—that football works well if the players want to fight for you.
There have been very few coaches in Dallas—since Jimmy Johnson—who have been able to command a room without threatening a hammer. But Quinn has always had the guys ready to fight for him and his causes.
Now, don’t be confused; that doesn’t mean he is a flawless coach, and it doesn’t mean he will win it all someday. But he was a miracle finish away from already winning his Super Bowl, and more importantly to readers of this missive, we had great times together.
I won’t fully recap the case against Dan Quinn, but
I did in this piece back in May:
The “good” was really, really good.
During the three years (2021-2023) with Dan Quinn as coordinator, Dallas Ranked:
- No. 1 in the NFL in Takeaways with 93.
- No. 1 in the NFL in Defensive Touchdowns with 15.
- No. 2 in the NFL in sacks per attempt at 8.4%.
- No. 2 in the NFL in Defensive EPA.
- No. 5 in the NFL in PPG Allowed with 19.9.
Then, there was the bad that went with it:
The 51 games don’t matter that much because those three playoff games that do.
- 2021 Wildcard home loss to San Francisco. In that game, Quinn’s defense generated 0 sacks and 1 takeaway.
- 2022 Divisional loss at San Francisco. In that game, the defense generated 2 1st quarter sacks and 0 takeaways.
- 2023 Wildcard home loss to Green Bay. In this famous game, the Cowboys defense managed 0 sacks and 0 takeaways.
Honestly, the defense alone was a disaster in the Green Bay game and also in the games against the "good teams" in 2023, which has many thinking DQ's defense was only strong against teams that stink. They played the 49ers (1 sack, 1 takeaway), Bills (1 sack, 0 takeaways), Dolphins (1 sack, 0 takeaways), and Packers (0 sacks, 0 takeaways) and were quickly exposed because they were playing a tiny defense that was throttled.
So, without even pointing out how badly they were destroyed against the run with their tiny defense, we can also look at how the sacks and takeaways dried up in those matchups. The correlation is pretty obvious, of course. If you cannot stop the run, why would you enjoy the benefits of an overwhelming pass rush?
Now, the counter, I suppose, is that the problems haven’t changed much on the Dallas defense without him. But this defense is absolutely Dan Quinn’s build, and without using resources to change it—with the many resources that ended up being allocated to the OL—they would probably find that Mike Zimmer didn’t have magic tricks like he might have hoped.
The Cowboys' defense needs plenty of work, and now Dan Quinn is the toast of a city that might be ready to win moving forward in Washington. The crazy thing there is that his defense in Washington can’t really stop the run, either.
It is a great story, but in my opinion, there is very little reason to wonder if Dallas let the next great head coach out of their facility last January.
All that said, I kinda miss the dude and the fired-up coaches box that the TV cameras would show when Micah would get a sack. He is a coach full of adrenaline and his players love that.
But, let’s get ready for some football.
OK, the East Coast noon start, and the Cowboys look up at Washington for the first time in a very long time.
Washington is a 10.5-point favorite, and many of us have indicated that we would probably lay even more. Dallas is playing a motivated opponent coming off a long rest and two straight losses. They are probably itching to get right—and to do so at the hands of Dallas? We should expect everything Washington can muster.
Of course, we should also realize that Washington is horrendous when they are big favorites over Dallas all-time. Now, I am not a big gambling guy, but I do follow this series closely. Since I entered college in Virginia in 1990, I have not missed a single matchup between these two teams because both areas love their football. And I can tell you that Washington has been big favorites over Dallas many times, and many times it ends up being an inexplicable disappointment to those folks.
Of the 12 biggest Washington point spreads between these two teams ever, Dallas has won eight times! So, yes, the big favorite is 4-8 in this spot—not just against the spread, but outright. That seems absurd.
It does appear that none of those games have been played in the last 17 years and most of them go back a lot further, so I wouldn’t call this terribly relevant information. But, it does demonstrate that there are no cinch bets in this series (or pro football).
When Dallas has the ball:
– In order to understand how to get after Washington, you probably need to know who is available to play. The Dallas offense was better on Monday, but now with a short week and bodies falling, they really just need to try to make things happen early that give them hope. With that in mind, prepare for a surprise attack right off the bat to try to turn the game a bit.
OK, I am not going to grind this matchup too hard this week. I am sorry, but the Xs and Os of a matchup like this are merely for sickos, like me. The Cowboys are right where we have left them against Houston. They are trying, but the pieces keep falling off and this offense was poor at full-strength, so you can imagine the depleted product is a bigger mess each week.
It doesn’t look like we will see Zack Martin and we might not see Tyler Smith. We also won’t see Brandin Cooks or Jake Ferguson, so as you can see, these lineup projections are pretty comedic in a situation like this.
The best way to attack Washington is on the ground, but as we know, nobody does that worse than Dallas. They are not going to get you on the ground, we assume, although if you really wanted to win this game, you might feature a heavy dose of Trey Lance and a zone read effort.
But, do we believe Dallas is even trying to win this game? I am torn on that one.
As you can see, Washington’s defense has not been very good this year. As we said all summer, they need a few drafts to get where they need to be. But, I loved a few of their acquisitions like Carolina’s Frankie Luvu at linebacker and Bobby Wagner as their two guys in the middle of the defense. Losing Jonathan Allen has been a major bummer for sure, but who would have thought that the three best sack seasons would be put up by Dante Fowler, Luvu, and Dorance Armstrong?
Dante Fowler was in Atlanta with Quinn, then Dallas, and now Washington. Something tells me the two hit it off pretty well. But, in Dallas, he was always a depth rusher. In Washington, he is leading the team with 8.5 sacks and on his way to his career high if he can get three more. Look at his work this year:
There is a reason Fowler went No. 3 overall in 2015. Such a great athlete who has had trouble putting everything together, but Quinn has never given up on him. You know the Washington defensive idea – try to get teams into passing situations and then put a bunch of athletes out there to try to cause chaos as a group.
Ok, let’s flip it.
When The Commanders have the ball:
– This might be a fun DeMarvion Overshown game again as he tries to make sure that Jayden Daniels doesn’t roam freely up and down the field.
Maybe the most exciting single season for the Cowboys this year has been put together by Overshown. He is electric and I must say, he is getting better and better as we go.
The Cowboys need to add special players to their group and I sure think that he has a real chance to work his way into that special category. My small observation on that front will be to get him in No. 0 next season so he can truly become Agent Zero. The true story of that can be seen below, but I am telling you, it is maddening to hear that Rowdy would take priority over Overshown.
See the whole interview here.
Give the man his zero. Especially if we are asking him to slow down Jayden Daniels twice every year. I cut up Jayden from a few weeks ago and here are two minutes of him causing problems for Chicago:
We knew Daniels was a problem, but we also know the NFL can handle it. But, the way he wins with his feet and his arm is a very special combination of tools and talents that we seldom see. If he can stay healthy, he is going to be a real problem because he definitely understands what he is doing at a very high level.
As you can see above, Overshown and Micah and friends are going to have their hands full. We think DaRon Bland is a go, but they still are depleted and beat up. I wish Marshawn Kneeland was a go, but it is possible that he and Tank Lawrence are not back until December. You can see the bones of a decent defense each week, but this one might be rough.