Machota: What should Cowboys expect in Mike McCarthy’s 2nd season? Let’s refer to history

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By Jon Machota 1h ago

History ended up being a pretty good indicator of what to expect from the 2020 Dallas Cowboys.

Before the start of training camp last June, we took a look at the records of NFL head coaches in their first full season leading a new team. The research, which focused on the last 10 years, showed that it might be wise to pump the brakes on expecting a playoff berth and long postseason run in Mike McCarthy’s first year in Dallas.

Over that 10-year period, there were 68 new head coaches hired in the NFL. The 31 NFC coaches combined to go 225-269-2. The 37 AFC coaches went a combined 251-341. The average worked out to be a 7-9 finish, pretty close to the 6-10 final record the Cowboys ended with in 2020.

McCarthy, who won a Super Bowl with the Packers in 2010, finishing with six wins was right on par with what other previous Super Bowl-winning head coaches had done in their first season with their next team.

Entering last season, a total of 12 coaches had won Super Bowls and then later taken a job with a new team. Only one – Mike Holmgren in 1999 – reached the playoffs in his first season with a new club. The group combined to go 71-112-3, an average of six wins per season. Holmgren was the only one to finish Year 1 with a winning record. For example, the Dolphins went 8-8 in Jimmy Johnson’s first season as head coach. Washington went 7-5-2 with Vince Lombardi in 1969. Mike Ditka went 6-10 with the Saints in 1997.

There were high expectations for the Cowboys last year because they were coming off an 8-8 year after winning the NFC East three of the previous five seasons. But COVID-19 did no favors to teams with new coaching staffs. The Cowboys were also hit hard by injuries to several key players, none bigger than the season-ending ankle injury quarterback Dak Prescott suffered in Week 5.

Several of those key players, including Prescott, are expected to be back and healthy entering training camp. There have also been several changes to the defensive coaching staff, most notably Mike Nolan being replaced by Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator. There’s still some work to do in regards to Prescott’s contract, but either way, he’s expected to be the team’s starting quarterback for a sixth consecutive season.

Considering all of the pieces returning, particularly on offense, the Cowboys’ expectations should be pretty high again in 2021. And it’s important to note that McCarthy led the Packers to a 13-3 season in Year 2 after going 8-8 his first year in Green Bay.


Since history wasn’t too far off when looking at Year 1 with a new head coach, we took a look at what the past can tell us about those same coaches in Year 2. Here’s the breakdown by division followed by a conclusion of what we found. Year 2 results are in bold.

NFC EAST

Cowboys: Jason Garrett in Year 1: 8-8, Year 2: 8-8.

Eagles: Chip Kelly in Year 1: 10-6, Year 2: 10-6. Doug Pederson in Year 1: 7-9, Year 2: 13-3, won the Super Bowl.

Washington: Mike Shanahan in Year 1: 6-10, Year 2: 5-11. Jay Gruden in Year 1: 4-12, Year 2: 9-7 (lost in Wild Card).

Giants: Ben McAdoo in Year 1: 11-5 (lost in Wild Card), Year 2: 2-10 (fired with four games remaining). Pat Shurmur in Year 1: 5-11, Year 2: 4-12.

NFC NORTH


Lions: Jim Caldwell in Year 1: 11-5 (lost in Wild Card), Year 2: 7-9. Matt Patricia in Year 1: 6-10, Year 2: 3-12-1.

Packers: Matt LaFleur in Year 1: 13-3 (lost in NFC Championship game), Year 2: 13-3 (lost in NFC Championship game).

Vikings: Leslie Frazier in Year 1: 3-13, Year 2: 10-6 (lost in Wild Card). Mike Zimmer in Year 1: 7-9, Year 2: 11-5 (lost in Wild Card).

Bears: Marc Trestman in Year 1: 8-8, Year 2: 5-11. John Fox in Year 1: 6-10, Year 2: 3-13. Matt Nagy in Year 1: 12-4 (lost in Wild Card), Year 2: 8-8.

NFC SOUTH


Panthers: Ron Rivera in Year 1: 6-10, Year 2: 7-9.

Falcons: Dan Quinn in Year 1: 8-8, Year 2: 11-5 (lost in Super Bowl).

Buccaneers: Greg Schiano in Year 1: 7-9, Year 2: 4-12. Lovie Smith in Year 1: 2-14, Year 2: 6-10. Dirk Koetter in Year 1: 9-7, Year 2: 5-11. Bruce Arians in Year 1: 7-9, Year 2: 11-5 (playing in Super Bowl).

NFC WEST


Seahawks: Pete Carroll in Year 1: 7-9 (lost in Div. round), Year 2: 7-9.

Rams: Jeff Fisher in Year 1: 7-8-1, Year 2: 7-9. Sean McVay in Year 1: 11-5 (lost in Wild Card), Year 2: 13-3 (lost in Super Bowl).

Cardinals: Bruce Arians in Year 1: 10-6, Year 2: 11-5 (lost in Wild Card). Steve Wilks in Year 1: 3-13, fired after Year 1. Kliff Kingsbury in Year 1: 5-10-1, Year 2: 8-8.

49ers: Jim Harbaugh in Year 1: 13-3 (lost in NFC championship game), Year 2: 11-4-1 (lost in Super Bowl). Jim Tomsula in Year 1: 5-11, fired after Year 1. Chip Kelly in Year 1: 2-14, fired after Year 1. Kyle Shanahan in Year 1: 6-10, Year 2: 4-12.

AFC EAST


Bills: Chan Gailey in Year 1: 4-12, Year 2: 6-10. Doug Marrone in Year 1: 6-10, Year 2: 9-7. Rex Ryan in Year 1: 8-8, Year 2: 7-8 fired after Week 16. Sean McDermott in Year 1: 9-7 (lost in Wild Card), Year 2: 6-10.

Jets: Todd Bowles in Year 1: 10-6, Year 2: 5-11. Adam Gase in Year 1: 7-9, Year 2: 2-14.

Dolphins: Joe Philbin in Year 1: 7-9, Year 2: 8-8. Adam Gase in Year 1: 10-6 (lost in Wild Card), Year 2: 6-10. Brain Flores in Year 1: 5-11, Year 2: 10-6.

AFC NORTH


Browns: Pat Shurmur in Year 1: 4-12, Year 2: 5-11. Rob Chudzinski in Year 1: 4-12, fired after Year 1. Mike Pettine in Year 1: 7-9, Year 2: 3-13. Hue Jackson in Year 1: 1-15, Year 2: 0-16. Freddie Kitchens in Year 1: 6-10, fired after Year 1.

Bengals: Zac Taylor in Year 1: 2-14, Year 2: 4-11-1.

AFC SOUTH


Texans: Bill O’Brien in Year 1: 9-7, Year 2: 9-7 (lost in Wild Card).

Titans: Mike Munchak in Year 1: 9-7, Year 2: 6-10. Ken Whisenhunt in Year 1: 2-14, Year 2: fired after 1-6 start. Mike Mularkey in Year 1: 9-7, Year 2: 9-7 (lost in Div. round). Mike Vrabel in Year 1: 9-7, Year 2: 9-7 (lost in AFC championship game).

Colts: Chuck Pagano in Year 1: 11-5 (lost in Wild Card), Year 2: 11-5 (lost in Div. round). Frank Reich in Year 1: 10-6 (lost in Div. round), Year 2: 7-9.

Jaguars: Mike Mularkey in Year 1: 2-14, fired after Year 1. Gus Bradley in Year 1: 4-12, Year 2: 3-13. Doug Marrone in Year 1: 10-6 (lost in AFC title game), Year 2: 5-11.

AFC WEST


Chiefs: Romeo Crennel in Year 1: 2-14, fired after Year 1. Andy Reid in Year 1: 11-5 (lost in Wild Card), Year 2: 9-7.

Broncos: John Fox in Year 1: 8-8 (lost in Div. round), Year 2: 13-3 (lost in Div. round). Gary Kubiak in Year 1: 12-4 (won Super Bowl), Year 2: 9-7. Vance Joseph in Year 1: 5-11, Year 2: 6-10. Vic Fangio in Year 1: 7-9, Year 2: 5-11.

Raiders: Hue Jackson in Year 1: 8-8, fired after Year 1. Dennis Allen in Year 1: 4-12, Year 2: 4-12. Jack Del Rio in Year 1: 7-9, Year 2: 12-4 (lost in Wild Card). Jon Gruden in Year 1: 4-12, Year 2: 7-9.

Chargers: Mike McCoy in Year 1: 9-7 (lost in Div. round), Year 2: 9-7. Anthony Lynn in Year 1: 9-7, Year 2: 12-4 (lost in Div. round).

CONCLUSION


The NFC coaches went from 225-269-2 in Year 1 to 216-226-2 in Year 2 – roughly an 8-8 average record per coach. The AFC coaches went from 251-341 in Year 1 to 217-284-1 in Year 2, a 7-9 average record per coach. The NFL’s parity makes for no real surprises there.

In all, 27 coaches saw their record get worse, 24 improved their record, nine had the same record from the previous season and eight coaches were fired after their first season. In regards to the playoffs, 17 coaches made it in Year 2 after 15 made it in Year 1.

The most interesting statistic was that five coaches took their teams to the Super Bowl in their second year, including Tampa Bay’s Bruce Arians this season. Only one went to the Super Bowl in their first season: Gary Kubiak with the Broncos.

The Saints, Patriots, Steelers and Ravens were not listed because they did not make a new head coaching hire in the previous 10 years. To compare, the records in Year 2 were worse than Year 1 for Sean Payton in New Orleans and John Harbaugh in Baltimore. However, New England’s Bill Belichick and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin each led their teams to Super Bowl victories in their second seasons with their current franchises.

And then there’s what former Super Bowl-winning head coaches did in the second season in their next job after winning a championship at their previous stop.

CoachTeamYear 1 recordYear 2 record
Vince LombardiWashington7-5-2 (1969)Did not coach team
Don McCaffertyLions6-7-1 (1973)Did not coach team
Hank StramSaints4-10 (1976)3-11 (1977)
Tom FloresSeahawks2-14 (1992)6-10 (1993)
Bill ParcellsPatriots5-11 (1993)10-6 (1994)
Jimmy JohnsonDolphins8-8 (1996)9-7 (1997)
Mike DitkaSaints6-10 (1997)6-10 (1997)
Mike HolmgrenSeahawks9-7 (1999)6-10 (2000)
George SeifertPanthers8-8 (1999)7-9 (2000)
Dick VermeilChiefs6-10 (2001)8-8 (2002)
Mike ShanahanWashington6-10 (2010)5-11 (2011)
Jon GrudenRaiders4-12 (2018)7-9 (2019)

Only Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells made the playoffs in their second season. Both ended up losing in the Wild Card round.

While none of this data directly impacts anything about McCarthy’s second season in Dallas, it is interesting to see that although the overall records weren’t all that different, there was clearly more postseason success for those second-year coaches who reached the playoffs. That seems like a good sign for a Cowboys team that will be expected to make the postseason in 2021.
 

Shiningstar

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its really going to come down to the staff. I hope Quinn is the guy we need on defense, i fear Kellen will be a big let down. For Quinn, a lot will depend on the draft and FA, for Kellen its going to be getting the ball into the play makers hands. Last year was a lot of missed opps as i feel he didnt utlize Gallup correctly, and not give Lamb more expierence with the ball when he knew the season was over.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Better at least be 10 wins and the playoffs, or bye.
Yeah I think a lot will come down to injuries. If we have a mostly healthy team and get 6-8 wins then he is out. The only way I think he gets a pass is if we have another year of injuries like this.
 

p1_

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LaFluer is the total outlier. And yet he’s
0-fer in the title game
 

Genghis Khan

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I guess this is offseason fodder and newspapers have to keep pumping out articles regardless so it's whatever, but honestly this is worthless and there are zero conclusions you can draw from any of this.
 

armadillooutlaw

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Realistic expectation with a healthy roster should probably be that the defense improves to average- to slightly above average, the team goes 10-6 with maybe a wild card victory.
This isn't a Super Bowl team even with a fantastic off-season, IMO.
 

boozeman

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I guess this is offseason fodder and newspapers have to keep pumping out articles regardless so it's whatever, but honestly this is worthless and there are zero conclusions you can draw from any of this.
There was the veiled idea he is going 13-3.

Yes it is offseason fodder.
 

1bigfan13

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I guess this is offseason fodder and newspapers have to keep pumping out articles regardless so it's whatever, but honestly this is worthless and there are zero conclusions you can draw from any of this.
This is why I only lightly skimmed the article.

McCarthy is obviously under pressure to produce but honestly, the real pressure should be placed on the executives making the draft decisions. It's time for them to start hitting some home runs on defense.
 

Genghis Khan

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This is why I only lightly skimmed the article.

McCarthy is obviously under pressure to produce but honestly, the real pressure should be placed on the executives making the draft decisions. It's time for them to start hitting some home runs on defense.
It's the biggest thing holding us back at this point. Have to make better choices on defense.
 

1bigfan13

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ironic how we choose offense well and not so much on defense.
I assume the root problem ( after Jerry of course) is with our college scouts. Who was the last real All-Pro defensive player that the Cowboys drafted.....Demarcus Ware? I'm not talking one-year wonders like Tank Lawrence and Byron Jones.
 
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p1_

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I assume the root problem ( after Jerry of course) is with our college scouts. Who was the last real All-Pro defensive player that the Cowboys drafted.....Demarcus Ware? I'm not talking one-year wonders like Tank Lawrence and Byron Jones.
Great question. And how many did we see from 92-94?
 

1bigfan13

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Great question. And how many did we see from 92-94?
I don't know. I think maybe only a few. But the difference is we didn't have any glaring weak links on those defenses. We had a few great players like Woodson, Tolbert, Norton Jr, and Haley and a bunch of good but not great players filling out the rest of the roster.
 

p1_

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I don't know. I think maybe only a few. But the difference is we didn't have any glaring weak links on those defenses. We had a few great players like Woodson, Tolbert, Norton Jr, and Haley and a bunch of good but not great players filling out the rest of the roster.
Tony Casillas, Russell Maryland, Kevin Smith, Larry Brown, Ray Horton, and Thomas Everett. As you say, not necessarily All Pros but really talented players across the defense. And of course, pre Free Agency.
 

ravidubey

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DL was just really, really deep in the early 90’s. They were a bend-don’t-break defense. They didn’t get big turnovers or sacks, stuff the run, or stifle receivers. But they were talented and the deepest team I’ve seen.

Jimmy had them playing out of their minds in the Superbowl. They looked like one of the greatest all-time D’s if you went by the Superbowls, forcing fumbles, crushing Jim Kelly, getting picks. That wasn’t them in the regular season.

They did their jobs while the Triplets and OL dominated the other team and chewed the clock. The combination was glorious.
 
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boozeman

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DL was just really, really deep in the early 90’s. They were a bend-don’t-break defense. They didn’t get big turnovers or sacks, stuff the run, or stifle receivers. But they were talented and the deepest team I’ve seen.

Jimmy had them playing out of their minds in the Superbowl. They looked like one of the greatest all-time D’s if you went by the Superbowls, forcing fumbles, crushing Jim Kelly, getting picks. That wasn’t them in the regular season.

They did their jobs while the Triplets and OL dominated the other team and chewed the clock. The combination was glorious.
I know.

And Garrett spent years on that foundation.
 
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L.T. Fan

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It was what he knew. Too bad the approach takes overwhelming talent, a ridiculous level of youth, and great coaching to actually work.
Not to mention that Johnson had personnel availability running out his ears with the Herschel Walker trade. This was the dominant reason Dallas went from from zero to hero almost overnight. Also that Windfall dwindled in time and Johnson was ready to move on so they were at the same level personnel wise as the rest of the league. This left the Jones influence in tact and the recipe has never occurred again.
 
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