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By Jon Machota 2h ago
The lack of significant moves the Cowboys have made in free agency increases the impact they need to make in this year’s draft. If the roster is going to be as good as or better than last year, Dallas needs to hit on multiple picks later this month.
For example, the Cowboys need a return that looks more like 2020 (WR CeeDee Lamb, CB Trevon Diggs, DT Neville Gallimore) than 2017 and 2019, when their top picks were DE Taco Charlton and DT Trysten Hill.
In researching possibilities for Dallas with its nine draft picks, a few projections came to mind. So here are four bold predictions for the Cowboys in this year’s draft.
1. They will trade up in the first or second round
The Cowboys haven’t traded up in the first round since 2012, when they sent their first- (No. 14) and second-round (No. 45) selections to the Rams in exchange for the sixth pick, which they used on LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. Although it wasn’t a great result, the Cowboys seem more likely to move up than down this year. When Jerry Jones talks about wanting to find another Micah Parsons, does that sound like a player who will be added by moving back? While the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year was drafted after the Cowboys moved back two spots a year ago, there’s no chance they would’ve moved back from the 10th pick if they’d known Parsons would have the immediate impact he did last season.
Moving up from the 24th pick this year would likely mean the Cowboys will grab another pressure player up front for their defense, a big-time playmaking wide receiver or a cornerstone offensive lineman to help fix one of their biggest problems from the 2021 season.
Given what most mock drafts are projecting, Dallas is probably in good shape to get a quality offensive lineman or wide receiver by staying at No. 24. But the noteworthy edge rushers are expected to be gone by that pick, so moving up could be a possibility. If there’s a defensive end they really like who starts to fall a little, that could be a good way to replace Randy Gregory.
If not the first, maybe the second round presents a better opportunity for the Cowboys to be aggressive. Their previous two second-round trades have involved moving up to select a cornerstone defender. They did so in 2010, moving up four spots to pick linebacker Sean Lee. In 2014, Dallas traded its second- and third-round picks to move up 13 spots and select defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence.
If the Cowboys address the offensive line in the first round, maybe they move up a little bit from No. 56 in the second round to get a wide receiver to replace Amari Cooper.
2. Dallas will not draft a defensive player in the first 3 rounds
That hasn’t happened since 2004, when the Cowboys picked RB Julius Jones and OT Jacob Rogers in the second round and OG Stephen Peterman in the third. Dallas’ biggest needs are offensive line, wide receiver and defensive end, but don’t be surprised if the Cowboys go heavy offensively early on, possibly addressing some combination of wide receiver, offensive guard, offensive tackle or tight end with their first three picks.
Dalton Schultz is a good starter who is under the franchise tag. If he isn’t signed to a long-term deal by the July 15 tag deadline, Dallas could be looking at its last season with him. Even if he signs a new deal, the Cowboys still need another tight end to make up for the loss of Blake Jarwin, who was released last month because of a hip issue. The Cowboys would like to have two quality tight ends.
The offensive line is a major priority after how poorly the group played last season. La’el Collins and Connor Williams are gone. Terence Steele is the favorite to start in place of Collins at right tackle. There’s still a hole at left guard, and there’s a need for depth at left tackle and center. Starting left tackle Tyron Smith continues to battle through injuries, and starting center Tyler Biadasz hasn’t exactly slammed the door on anyone competing for the starting spot.
And then there is wide receiver, where Lamb, Michael Gallup and James Washington are the current top three on the depth chart. Another wide receiver will be added at some point in this draft. But will it be as early as pick No. 24 or will it be addressed in a later round? The good thing about that position is it’s probably the easiest to replace in the draft because good players can be found outside of the first round.
3. They will draft a running back who will eventually become their starter
OK, that’s probably too bold, but don’t rule out Dallas’ using a fifth- or sixth-round pick on the position and landing a player who competes for the starting spot in the future. Ezekiel Elliott will have to have an incredible year for the Cowboys to continue paying him at his current contract price. Tony Pollard is entering the final year of his rookie contract. If he plays well this season, are the Cowboys going to pay significantly to keep him?
My prediction is that Dallas’ next starting running back will not be one who is a major investment. When Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy was in Green Bay, the Packers never used a first-round pick on a running back. They did use two second-round picks, though. They also found a Pro Bowl player, Aaron Jones, in the fifth round.
Even if the Cowboys don’t draft a running back this year, there’s a good chance that their 2023 starter isn’t on the current roster.
4. Dallas will draft Tyron Smith’s heir apparent
That doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen in the first round, but it could. The Cowboys scheduled official pre-draft visits with three offensive tackles: Charles Cross (Mississippi State), Bernhard Raimann (Central Michigan) and Joshua Ezeudu (North Carolina). The key aspect of this prediction is that Smith’s successor is not necessarily going to be the perennial Pro Bowl selection that Smith has been. The reason for this thought: The new coaching staff apparently doesn’t view offensive line investments the way the previous coaching staff did. This staff already believes it found a starting right tackle in Steele, an undrafted player. You can make the argument that Collins was undrafted, but that was a much different situation. Collins was a first-round talent.
McCarthy coached playoff teams in Green Bay that consistently found quality offensive line starters outside of the first round. The standouts included Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, J.C. Tretter, David Bakhtiari and Corey Linsley. Perhaps the Cowboys do the same to find their left tackle of the future. Maybe that’s in the second round, or maybe it’s in the third, fourth or fifth. That’s not to say that player steps in and starts Week 1, but maybe he grows into that role over the next couple of years. Just because Dallas’ previous standout offensive line was built mostly with first-round picks doesn’t mean that’s the only way to build a good one.
