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By Bob Sturm Mar 23, 2020
The past week has provided an unforgettable ride for just about every person reading this piece. Hopefully, you are somewhat closer to finding a new normal as this spring break 2020 might actually be a 90-day life reset for just about all of us. For some of us, work qualifies as writing at the kitchen table, so in this case, my normalcy takes me right back to old faithful in a quiet house (for now).
Today’s topic seems obvious. Aside from this past week being an unforgettable human experience, the NFL has conducted a ton of business in their attempt to keep their agenda afloat as much as possible given the circumstances. They don’t need much human interaction at this point, and they capitalized.
The league decided to unleash free agency as planned. A week ago today, it started with the final chance for teams to place the franchise tag or transition tag on one of their free agents to lock in employment for the 2020 season at a strong premium price. As you know, the Cowboys did that by franchise-tagging Dak Prescott, and as we assume long-term negotiations can continue, the two sides hopefully are sorting out a compromise to put Prescott’s issue aside for the first time in 24 months or so. They have until July.
But since that decision and the subsequent heartburn of trying to secure Amari Cooper in the evening to follow — which the Cowboys were able to pull off by some combination of knowing the market and getting lucky — an absurd number of moves have affected the Cowboys. I figured a fine way to occupy my next few hours would be to sort through as many of those as possible in one place. This is easily, aside from the draft, the most important week of the NFL calendar for making your team either better or worse. We know that this is an abstract and non-linear premise that you can actually see wins or losses add up in the second or third week of March, but let’s see if we can offer a fair view of what has happened since last Monday.
MONDAY, MARCH 16
POSITIVE – DAK PRESCOTT TAGGED. Of course, the ability to keep Dak Prescott in the fold is a massive positive if only for the simple reason that we have seen the QB market in free agency and the cost of doing business. I don’t necessarily want to turn this piece into another reason why a 26-year-old quarterback who has started 64 regular-season games already and has been at the helm for a 40-24 record throughout it is most likely the best option you might have for quite a while. But I also assume that if you’re familiar with my work, you already know that I believe much of this fan base has no idea how good he is and how tough it is out there for teams that have no QB who approaches his credentials. Many teams would love a chance to grab him and to shoot their current QB situation right into the sun, but again, let’s talk about something a bit fresher than another version of this discussion.
POSITIVE – BLAKE JARWIN EXTENDED: Four years, $22 million. The initial reports of the contract and the current views of the deal are significantly different, which is a great reason why we should probably wait until we get a look at the actual numbers before freaking out. It sure appears that four years, $22 million is merely a $5.5 million/year deal with less than $10 million guaranteed. Basically, it locks in Jarwin for four seasons through 2023, and the Cowboys can comfortably walk away without significant issues after 2021 if he does not continue his development. I like Jarwin but don’t love him, in the sense that I think the team should be on a constant outlook for better ideas at tight end. But I also would admit that his ability down the seam is very interesting and perhaps enough to mitigate his shortcomings. Either way, the price is nowhere near as problematic as it first appeared, and this is the type of contract we want to see this team sign more often so that they don’t have so many panic signings at deadlines at 110 percent of market value, like our next one…
NEGATIVE – BYRON JONES LOST TO MIAMI. I definitely realize that the Cowboys were never going to pay that type of money for Byron Jones, so my “negative” is based solely on the fact that he isn’t on the football field for 1,000 snaps this year and a lesser cornerback will be. That makes this team worse. Jones is very, very good and handles some of the most important assignments from opponents. Jones signing a five-year, $82.5 million deal with over $54 million in guarantees, most of it in the next 24 months, means that he is doing very well and the Cowboys now will have to replace him with what will probably be a significant downgrade. Dallas was never going to keep him, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been your best defensive back for several years, and now you have to go in a different direction that will have a significant impact on your defense’s quality.
POSITIVE – AMARI COOPER EXTENDED: Five years, $100 million. This was the maneuver that the Cowboys risked with either a belief that Amari was never going to leave or a massive risk that they knew he was just going to get a bid. If he wanted to sign in Washington, they had no way to keep him around and then their entire offseason might have caved in beneath them. Instead, no harm, no foul. The Cowboys’ best offensive weapon stays home and will be locked in on a very significant contract through 2024 with $60 million guaranteed, so they really cannot walk away before the 2023 season.
The team also signed QB Cooper Rush to a one-year, $2.1 million deal. I still suggest they attempt to upgrade their backup QB situation.
TUESDAY, MARCH 17
NEGATIVE – ROBERT QUINN SIGNS IN CHICAGO. This might have been a misread of the market on our part because I thought a three-year, $36 million deal might be enough to keep Quinn, and I wasn’t alone. I am not sure if the Cowboys thought so, too, but it felt like the object of the game would have been to keep Amari, Dak and then one of the other three top free agents between Byron Jones, Robert Quinn and Randall Cobb. We are quickly finding out that the other three ended up costing over $180 million combined, as the market exploded for former Cowboys. Quinn’s deal is very cheap in 2020 (since the Bears have no cap room) at the cost of locking him in for 2021 and 2022 as well. I don’t think the Cowboys ever planned on that, even though the $30 million guarantee on his five-year deal suggests the $70 million price tag is just for the headlines. I do understand the Cowboys getting out of this race, though. Quinn is a nice pass rusher but, like Jarwin, is pretty limited in other spots of his game that suggest you don’t want to get top crazy on his price.
NEGATIVE – RANDALL COBB SIGNS IN HOUSTON. The big number here is $18 million guaranteed within the $27 million total price on his three-year deal. There was simply no way the Cowboys were ever going to $9 million a year and $18 million guaranteed on Cobb. They need to give the money to Cooper, and the Texans were trying to appease fans after the Hopkins trade with a splash that confused most of the league. This is a pretty big overpay for a nice player. I have no issue with Cobb, but much like the Jones and Quinn deals, there comes a price where it feels absurd. However, the Cowboys did get worse when losing both of them.
NEGATIVES – JASON WITTEN, JEFF HEATH, MALIEK COLLINS ALL SIGN IN LAS VEGAS. Witten played 844 offensive snaps in 2019, Maliek Collins 763 and Jeff Heath 719 (not including special teams). You can feel however you want about these three players (and I have heard from many!), but when you add the 2,326 snaps of these players with the 917 of Jones, the 647 of Quinn and the 720 of Cobb, those six players leave Dallas with 4,610 snaps to replace. That is plenty of change to absorb for a team that doesn’t have a ton of space to find replacements. Witten received a one-year deal for $4 million (nearly all guaranteed), Heath was signed to a two-year, $6 million deal with less than half guaranteed, and Collins snagged a single year worth $6 million, virtually all guaranteed. The Collins deal, in particular, was shockingly low for Dallas not to retain. Ostensibly, he’ll try to prove his worth and cash in a year from now.
Dallas also retained Sean Lee, Darian Thompson and LP Ladouceur to small one-year deals to stay put.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 18
POSITIVE – GERALD MCCOY SIGNED: Three years, $18.3 million. I covered most of this last week, and you may wish to read more about it here. The Cowboys started to add to their roster by going to get the big fella out of Carolina to really help a defensive line that needed it badly.
POSITIVE – MAURICE CANADY SIGNED: One year, $1.2 million. On the same day, the Cowboys found a cornerback who has shown some flashes of promise to join this group. I am not suggesting he will start at all, but I am suggesting they think he could, and this might turn out to be a nice opportunity for a player who has struggled to avoid the lower-body, soft-tissue issues that have repeatedly cost him injury time. I like him, and that goes back to his days at Virginia, but they only guaranteed him $200,000, which means he might need to prove himself and his health in training camp.
POSITIVE – ANTHONY BROWN SIGNED: Three years, $15.5 million. This one is probably less interesting to many than the Canady signing, but I assure you it is more important. Brown was a UFA, and while I might have guessed he’d make less money a year ago, inflation has pushed his number up. We have not received specifics about the guarantees of this deal, but we do know that Brown has played nearly 3,000 snaps of competent football. He is not my favorite player, but I do believe he is pretty dependable and likely to start in 2019 in some capacity.
The Cowboys also retained kicker Kai Forbath, and while that is likely not the world’s biggest deal, we probably should at least recognize that having a competent kicker should not be taken for granted after a 2019 season in which the team refused to release Brett Maher until it was too late.
Additionally, Dallas retained offensive line depth in Joe Looney while losing Cam Fleming and Xavier Su’a-Filo. Of the three, Looney is probably the most dependable in a pinch, but losing Fleming means this team needs a third tackl,e and those aren’t cheap. Perhaps one of their developmental tackles is already their choice, but this is worth considering in this time where Tyron Smith has missed three weeks a year for several years.
THURSDAY, MARCH 19
POSITIVE – HAHA CLINTON-DIX SIGNED: One year, $4 million. The Cowboys needed veteran safety help, and their change out for Jeff Heath is the former first-round pick from Alabama. Despite his name recognition and pedigree, Clinton-Dix is not a very good starter in this league and is joining his fourth team in less than 18 months. That is never a very good sign, and while this is probably more significant than the George Iloka signing of 12 months ago, I suspect he is merely a stopgap to keep the Cowboys from feeling they need to reach in the draft. He isn’t horrendous, but I think you will wish to upgrade from him. He takes the “safe” out of safety and gambles with recklessness and bad angles. I do think he has great ability, but his judgement has continued to get him in trouble. That said, he gets takeaways, stays on the field and fills a hole for now. I have some significant mixed reviews of this player but, admittedly, it is worth a look at the price.
The team also retained Joe Thomas on a one-year deal, and that is useful on a team with fragile linebacker health.
FRIDAY, MARCH 20
The team retained CJ Goodwin and Justin March to small one-year deals.
If you don’t follow my trusted colleague Jon Machota on Twitter, you should. He has been keeping the comings and goings on his account throughout, and I think I mentioned everyone here.
One week into this, we can definitely see plenty of names coming and going. There is an enormous amount of work to be done, but we can also see that the smoke is starting to clear. By Week 2 of free agency (which starts today), the big stories and big money will slow down dramatically, and here is where a team like Dallas can move in and look for options at small prices for one-year deals on decent players.
The other wild card here is Randy Gregory and his reinstatement. His 2018 season had a few moments that made him a fanbase target, but he also provided as much pressure on a game-by-game basis as Robert Quinn did in Miami in 2018. In other words, I know you are rolling your eyes, but that right there is a pivotal possibility and, obviously, a real advantageous price-tag. It is highly possible that Gregory provides the Cowboys with their best plan at edge rusher at the moment unless they want to do something at pick No. 17.
It is difficult to review a movie at the halfway point and building an offseason roster is the exact same situation. We cannot judge this roster because the Cowboys are just getting started. The losses are real and substantial, but let’s see what the gains might be yet ahead.
They have plenty more work to do.
The past week has provided an unforgettable ride for just about every person reading this piece. Hopefully, you are somewhat closer to finding a new normal as this spring break 2020 might actually be a 90-day life reset for just about all of us. For some of us, work qualifies as writing at the kitchen table, so in this case, my normalcy takes me right back to old faithful in a quiet house (for now).
Today’s topic seems obvious. Aside from this past week being an unforgettable human experience, the NFL has conducted a ton of business in their attempt to keep their agenda afloat as much as possible given the circumstances. They don’t need much human interaction at this point, and they capitalized.
The league decided to unleash free agency as planned. A week ago today, it started with the final chance for teams to place the franchise tag or transition tag on one of their free agents to lock in employment for the 2020 season at a strong premium price. As you know, the Cowboys did that by franchise-tagging Dak Prescott, and as we assume long-term negotiations can continue, the two sides hopefully are sorting out a compromise to put Prescott’s issue aside for the first time in 24 months or so. They have until July.
But since that decision and the subsequent heartburn of trying to secure Amari Cooper in the evening to follow — which the Cowboys were able to pull off by some combination of knowing the market and getting lucky — an absurd number of moves have affected the Cowboys. I figured a fine way to occupy my next few hours would be to sort through as many of those as possible in one place. This is easily, aside from the draft, the most important week of the NFL calendar for making your team either better or worse. We know that this is an abstract and non-linear premise that you can actually see wins or losses add up in the second or third week of March, but let’s see if we can offer a fair view of what has happened since last Monday.
MONDAY, MARCH 16
POSITIVE – DAK PRESCOTT TAGGED. Of course, the ability to keep Dak Prescott in the fold is a massive positive if only for the simple reason that we have seen the QB market in free agency and the cost of doing business. I don’t necessarily want to turn this piece into another reason why a 26-year-old quarterback who has started 64 regular-season games already and has been at the helm for a 40-24 record throughout it is most likely the best option you might have for quite a while. But I also assume that if you’re familiar with my work, you already know that I believe much of this fan base has no idea how good he is and how tough it is out there for teams that have no QB who approaches his credentials. Many teams would love a chance to grab him and to shoot their current QB situation right into the sun, but again, let’s talk about something a bit fresher than another version of this discussion.
POSITIVE – BLAKE JARWIN EXTENDED: Four years, $22 million. The initial reports of the contract and the current views of the deal are significantly different, which is a great reason why we should probably wait until we get a look at the actual numbers before freaking out. It sure appears that four years, $22 million is merely a $5.5 million/year deal with less than $10 million guaranteed. Basically, it locks in Jarwin for four seasons through 2023, and the Cowboys can comfortably walk away without significant issues after 2021 if he does not continue his development. I like Jarwin but don’t love him, in the sense that I think the team should be on a constant outlook for better ideas at tight end. But I also would admit that his ability down the seam is very interesting and perhaps enough to mitigate his shortcomings. Either way, the price is nowhere near as problematic as it first appeared, and this is the type of contract we want to see this team sign more often so that they don’t have so many panic signings at deadlines at 110 percent of market value, like our next one…
NEGATIVE – BYRON JONES LOST TO MIAMI. I definitely realize that the Cowboys were never going to pay that type of money for Byron Jones, so my “negative” is based solely on the fact that he isn’t on the football field for 1,000 snaps this year and a lesser cornerback will be. That makes this team worse. Jones is very, very good and handles some of the most important assignments from opponents. Jones signing a five-year, $82.5 million deal with over $54 million in guarantees, most of it in the next 24 months, means that he is doing very well and the Cowboys now will have to replace him with what will probably be a significant downgrade. Dallas was never going to keep him, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been your best defensive back for several years, and now you have to go in a different direction that will have a significant impact on your defense’s quality.
POSITIVE – AMARI COOPER EXTENDED: Five years, $100 million. This was the maneuver that the Cowboys risked with either a belief that Amari was never going to leave or a massive risk that they knew he was just going to get a bid. If he wanted to sign in Washington, they had no way to keep him around and then their entire offseason might have caved in beneath them. Instead, no harm, no foul. The Cowboys’ best offensive weapon stays home and will be locked in on a very significant contract through 2024 with $60 million guaranteed, so they really cannot walk away before the 2023 season.
The team also signed QB Cooper Rush to a one-year, $2.1 million deal. I still suggest they attempt to upgrade their backup QB situation.
TUESDAY, MARCH 17
NEGATIVE – ROBERT QUINN SIGNS IN CHICAGO. This might have been a misread of the market on our part because I thought a three-year, $36 million deal might be enough to keep Quinn, and I wasn’t alone. I am not sure if the Cowboys thought so, too, but it felt like the object of the game would have been to keep Amari, Dak and then one of the other three top free agents between Byron Jones, Robert Quinn and Randall Cobb. We are quickly finding out that the other three ended up costing over $180 million combined, as the market exploded for former Cowboys. Quinn’s deal is very cheap in 2020 (since the Bears have no cap room) at the cost of locking him in for 2021 and 2022 as well. I don’t think the Cowboys ever planned on that, even though the $30 million guarantee on his five-year deal suggests the $70 million price tag is just for the headlines. I do understand the Cowboys getting out of this race, though. Quinn is a nice pass rusher but, like Jarwin, is pretty limited in other spots of his game that suggest you don’t want to get top crazy on his price.
NEGATIVE – RANDALL COBB SIGNS IN HOUSTON. The big number here is $18 million guaranteed within the $27 million total price on his three-year deal. There was simply no way the Cowboys were ever going to $9 million a year and $18 million guaranteed on Cobb. They need to give the money to Cooper, and the Texans were trying to appease fans after the Hopkins trade with a splash that confused most of the league. This is a pretty big overpay for a nice player. I have no issue with Cobb, but much like the Jones and Quinn deals, there comes a price where it feels absurd. However, the Cowboys did get worse when losing both of them.
NEGATIVES – JASON WITTEN, JEFF HEATH, MALIEK COLLINS ALL SIGN IN LAS VEGAS. Witten played 844 offensive snaps in 2019, Maliek Collins 763 and Jeff Heath 719 (not including special teams). You can feel however you want about these three players (and I have heard from many!), but when you add the 2,326 snaps of these players with the 917 of Jones, the 647 of Quinn and the 720 of Cobb, those six players leave Dallas with 4,610 snaps to replace. That is plenty of change to absorb for a team that doesn’t have a ton of space to find replacements. Witten received a one-year deal for $4 million (nearly all guaranteed), Heath was signed to a two-year, $6 million deal with less than half guaranteed, and Collins snagged a single year worth $6 million, virtually all guaranteed. The Collins deal, in particular, was shockingly low for Dallas not to retain. Ostensibly, he’ll try to prove his worth and cash in a year from now.
Dallas also retained Sean Lee, Darian Thompson and LP Ladouceur to small one-year deals to stay put.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 18
POSITIVE – GERALD MCCOY SIGNED: Three years, $18.3 million. I covered most of this last week, and you may wish to read more about it here. The Cowboys started to add to their roster by going to get the big fella out of Carolina to really help a defensive line that needed it badly.
POSITIVE – MAURICE CANADY SIGNED: One year, $1.2 million. On the same day, the Cowboys found a cornerback who has shown some flashes of promise to join this group. I am not suggesting he will start at all, but I am suggesting they think he could, and this might turn out to be a nice opportunity for a player who has struggled to avoid the lower-body, soft-tissue issues that have repeatedly cost him injury time. I like him, and that goes back to his days at Virginia, but they only guaranteed him $200,000, which means he might need to prove himself and his health in training camp.
POSITIVE – ANTHONY BROWN SIGNED: Three years, $15.5 million. This one is probably less interesting to many than the Canady signing, but I assure you it is more important. Brown was a UFA, and while I might have guessed he’d make less money a year ago, inflation has pushed his number up. We have not received specifics about the guarantees of this deal, but we do know that Brown has played nearly 3,000 snaps of competent football. He is not my favorite player, but I do believe he is pretty dependable and likely to start in 2019 in some capacity.
The Cowboys also retained kicker Kai Forbath, and while that is likely not the world’s biggest deal, we probably should at least recognize that having a competent kicker should not be taken for granted after a 2019 season in which the team refused to release Brett Maher until it was too late.
Additionally, Dallas retained offensive line depth in Joe Looney while losing Cam Fleming and Xavier Su’a-Filo. Of the three, Looney is probably the most dependable in a pinch, but losing Fleming means this team needs a third tackl,e and those aren’t cheap. Perhaps one of their developmental tackles is already their choice, but this is worth considering in this time where Tyron Smith has missed three weeks a year for several years.
THURSDAY, MARCH 19
POSITIVE – HAHA CLINTON-DIX SIGNED: One year, $4 million. The Cowboys needed veteran safety help, and their change out for Jeff Heath is the former first-round pick from Alabama. Despite his name recognition and pedigree, Clinton-Dix is not a very good starter in this league and is joining his fourth team in less than 18 months. That is never a very good sign, and while this is probably more significant than the George Iloka signing of 12 months ago, I suspect he is merely a stopgap to keep the Cowboys from feeling they need to reach in the draft. He isn’t horrendous, but I think you will wish to upgrade from him. He takes the “safe” out of safety and gambles with recklessness and bad angles. I do think he has great ability, but his judgement has continued to get him in trouble. That said, he gets takeaways, stays on the field and fills a hole for now. I have some significant mixed reviews of this player but, admittedly, it is worth a look at the price.
The team also retained Joe Thomas on a one-year deal, and that is useful on a team with fragile linebacker health.
FRIDAY, MARCH 20
The team retained CJ Goodwin and Justin March to small one-year deals.
If you don’t follow my trusted colleague Jon Machota on Twitter, you should. He has been keeping the comings and goings on his account throughout, and I think I mentioned everyone here.
One week into this, we can definitely see plenty of names coming and going. There is an enormous amount of work to be done, but we can also see that the smoke is starting to clear. By Week 2 of free agency (which starts today), the big stories and big money will slow down dramatically, and here is where a team like Dallas can move in and look for options at small prices for one-year deals on decent players.
The other wild card here is Randy Gregory and his reinstatement. His 2018 season had a few moments that made him a fanbase target, but he also provided as much pressure on a game-by-game basis as Robert Quinn did in Miami in 2018. In other words, I know you are rolling your eyes, but that right there is a pivotal possibility and, obviously, a real advantageous price-tag. It is highly possible that Gregory provides the Cowboys with their best plan at edge rusher at the moment unless they want to do something at pick No. 17.
It is difficult to review a movie at the halfway point and building an offseason roster is the exact same situation. We cannot judge this roster because the Cowboys are just getting started. The losses are real and substantial, but let’s see what the gains might be yet ahead.
They have plenty more work to do.
