Machota: The Cowboys’ 2021 draft - Their biggest needs and prospects who could fill each in first three rounds

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By Jon Machota 8m ago

Stephen Jones understands that the biggest areas of need on the Cowboys’ roster are on the defensive side of the ball. But the team’s executive vice president is also aware of the dangers of focusing only on certain positions with their 10 picks in this month’s draft.

“You got to be open-minded or you don’t get CeeDee Lamb if he happens to be sitting there,” Jones said last month, referring to how Dallas drafted the star wide receiver in the first round last year despite having bigger needs on defense. “Certainly you can’t go into a draft saying, ‘Every player is going to be a defensive player.’”

The Cowboys have four of the top 100 picks. The last time they used all of their top 100 selections on defense was 2017, when they ended up with defensive end Taco Charlton and cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis. Lewis, a third-round pick, and wide receiver Noah Brown, a seventh-round selection, are the only members of that draft class still on the roster.

In 2012, Dallas used its first four picks all on defense, trading up to take cornerback Morris Claiborne sixth overall and then picking defensive lineman Tyrone Crawford in the third and linebacker Kyle Wilber and safety Matt Johnson in the fourth.

It’s no secret that the Cowboys have had much more success drafting offensive players over the last decade. Since 2011, their offensive draft picks have combined to make 26 Pro Bowl appearances. Their defensive picks have combined to make five. During that time, their offensive picks have been named first-team All-Pro nine times. They have not had a defensive draft pick in the last 10 years make first-team All-Pro.

Linebacker Sean Lee, a second-round pick in 2010, was Dallas’ last defensive pick to go on to make first-team All-Pro. Before him, it was defensive linemen DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff, both selected in 2005.

Since the biggest impact this year will likely come from the Cowboys’ first four picks — Nos. 10, 44, 75 and 99 — we’re going to focus on the top 100 prospects in this class, which were ranked last week by draft expert Dane Brugler. The Cowboys’ biggest needs are at cornerback, safety, defensive tackle, edge rusher and linebacker. So using Brugler’s top 100 as a mock Cowboys big board, we’re breaking down each of those positions to give you an idea of the players who could be there when Dallas is picking in three weeks.

But before we get to that, there are scenarios where the 10th overall pick could end up being an offensive player. Although they may seem unlikely to go that route right now, it was unlikely last year at this time that Dallas ended up with Lamb at Pick 17 and then starting cornerback Trevon Diggs at Pick 51.

Here are three offensive players that would have to be available to really make things interesting when the Cowboys go on the clock in the first round.

Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon (6-6, 315). Sewell is widely regarded as the best offensive tackle in this draft. He’s probably not falling to 10. But if he somehow did, the Cowboys have proven that they will invest significantly in their offensive line. It was pretty easy to see how difficult it was to run the offense without both of their starting tackles (Tyron Smith and La’el Collins) for nearly the entire 2020 season. Significant injuries to both players last year have made offensive tackle a position to keep an eye on in this draft. Finding a young tackle to add depth and insurance is their biggest area of need on offense. Brugler ranks Sewell as the fifth overall player in this class.

Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern (6-4, 302). If this ended up being the pick and both Smith and Collins stayed healthy all season, Slater would likely end up being Dallas’ starting left guard. But this pick would be made because of Slater’s ability to eventually become a starting tackle. That could either come as injury insurance or if, for example, Smith decided to retire in the next few years. Quality offensive tackles are difficult to find outside of the first round. Slater would give the Cowboys great insurance for the future while also improving the offensive line immediately to protect Dak Prescott and open holes for Ezekiel Elliott.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida (6-6, 240). Of course, tight end is nowhere near the Cowboys’ biggest draft need. But Pitts is an incredibly talented offensive weapon who Brugler ranks as the No. 2 overall player in this class. Most likely, he will not be available at No. 10. But if the run on quarterbacks, wide receivers and offensive linemen somehow pushed him down the line, Dallas would have to consider. Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz give the Cowboys two good tight ends at the top of the depth chart. Both have starting experience. But neither has nearly the upside of Pitts. Jarwin was expected to be the starter all of last year before a knee injury ended his season in Week 1. He’s expected to be fully recovered and participating throughout the entire offseason program. Schultz started 14 games last year, catching 63 of his 89 targets for 615 yards and four touchdowns. All were career-highs. But he is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Jarwin is under a very manageable contract for three more seasons. Pitts would provide even more options for offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to attack opposing defenses, particularly in the middle of the field and in the red zone.

Now to the defense. Here’s a breakdown with players at each defensive position that Brugler has ranked among his top 100.

Cornerback

Patrick Surtain II is the current favorite to be the Cowboys’ pick at No. 10. He fills a major need as an outside corner who can line up opposite of Diggs. And judging by his play in college, Surtain should be ready to step into a starting role immediately. Where things would get interesting is if Surtain gets picked before Dallas. Will the Cowboys like Jaycee Horn enough to take him at No. 10? Or maybe they would simply take the best player available, which could be one of the three offensive players mentioned earlier. New defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will likely be looking to add an outside corner with good size. Lewis (5-10, 195) and Anthony Brown (5-11, 196) are expected to be in the rotation. So the ideal fit would probably be someone the size of Surtain, Horn, Caleb Farley or Ifeatu Melifonwu. Speaking of Farley, the Cowboys have developed a reputation for drafting players with injury issues in the second round. What if Farley, who recently had a microdiscectomy on a herniated disc in his back, was to fall into the second round? Would the Cowboys draft him? Would they be willing to trade up a little bit from Pick 44? Farley was considered by many to be the top cornerback prospect in this class before news surfaced two weeks ago about him needing the procedure.

Brugler’s top 10 cornerbacks:

1. Patrick Surtain II, Alabama (6-2, 208)
2. Jaycee Horn, South Carolina (6-1, 205)
3. Greg Newsome, Northwestern (6-0, 192)
4. Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech (6-2, 205)
5. Elijah Molden, Washington (5-10, 188)
6. Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State (5-10, 180)
7. Eric Stokes, Georgia (6-1, 194)
8. Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky (6-1, 192)
9. Tyson Campbell, Georgia (6-1, 193)
10. Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse (6-3, 205)

Safety

Will Dallas use a first- or second-round pick on a safety? Former starter Xavier Woods has signed with the Vikings. The Cowboys have signed veterans Keanu Neal, Damontae Kazee and Jayron Kearse to one-year deals, but nothing that would prevent them from drafting a player at the position. There’s not a safety prospect expected to be picked in the top half of the first round. Richie Grant, Trevon Moehrig or Jevon Holland could be possibilities in the second round for Dallas. If the Cowboys don’t grab one of them at 44, would they move up from 75? It might seem unlikely, but so was Nasir Adderley, Taylor Rapp and Juan Thornhill falling to 60, 61 and 63 in 2019. Quinn probably values the safety position a little more than the Cowboys have in the past. The Falcons drafted Neal with the 17th overall pick in 2016 when Quinn was the head coach in Atlanta. Quinn’s elite defenses in Seattle had Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor on the back end. But is his influence enough for the Cowboys to make a significant investment on a position no one has valued less than them over the last decade?

Brugler’s top five safeties:

1. Richie Grant, UCF (6-0, 200)
2. Trevon Moehrig, TCU (6-1, 202)
3. Jevon Holland, Oregon (6-1, 200)
4. Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State (6-3, 215)
5. Andre Cisco, Syracuse (6-1, 216)

Defensive tackle

In a perfect world, Aaron Donald would be in this draft and the Cowboys could grab him at No. 10. The Rams drafted the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year with the 13th overall pick in 2014. But not only is there no tackle close to Donald in this class, there’s no defensive lineman currently projected to be worthy of the 10th overall pick. One interesting scenario would be that if the player the Cowboys really want isn’t there at No. 10 and perhaps another team is looking to move up to get a wide receiver or quarterback, Dallas could move back, pick up extra picks and potentially take Christian Barmore. Mike McCarthy and Quinn both attended Alabama’s pro day last month. While most of their attention was probably on Surtain, adding the top defensive tackle in this class wouldn’t be the worst move. Barmore played his best ball down the stretch for the national champion Crimson Tide last season. And defensive tackle has been a major need for a while. The Cowboys added veterans Carlos Watkins and Brent Urban in free agency, but neither would prevent them from grabbing a defensive tackle at any point in this draft.

Brugler’s top five defensive tackles:

1. Christian Barmore, Alabama (6-4, 310)
2. Levi Onwuzurike, Washington (6-3, 290)
3. Marlon Tuipulotu, USC (6-2, 307)
4. Milton Williams, Louisiana Tech (6-3, 284)
5. Jay Tufele, USC (6-2, 305)

Linebacker

If Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch stayed healthy all season and played like it was 2018, linebacker would not be on this list. But a lot has changed in the last two years and the Cowboys need to find insurance at the position. Is that expected to happen at Pick 10? Probably not. The third or fourth round seems more likely. Neal is expected to play more weakside linebacker than safety, but again, he’s only signed for one year. Sean Lee hasn’t announced his retirement, so he could end up playing another season, but this would be a great time to find another Anthony Hitchens in the fourth round like they did in 2014.

Brugler’s top eight linebackers:

1. Micah Parsons, Penn State (6-3, 246)
2. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame (6-2, 217)
3. Zaven Collins, Tulsa (6-3, 259)
4. Nick Bolton, Missouri (5-11, 237)
5. Jamin Davis, Kentucky (6-3, 236)
6. Jabril Cox, LSU (6-3, 233)
7. Baron Browning, Ohio State (6-3, 241)
8. Chazz Surratt, North Carolina (6-2, 227)

Defensive end

Edge rusher would certainly be in play at No. 10 if there was a player worthy of that draft spot. According to most experts, this class doesn’t have that type of prospect. What it appears to have, though, is depth at the position. So instead of reaching for a player at Pick 10, this seems like a good class to make some investments in the second, third or fourth rounds and maybe with multiple picks. DeMarcus Lawrence is the face of the defense and will again be the starting left end. Randy Gregory is expected to start on the right. Recently signed veteran Tarell Basham is expected to be the No. 3 edge rusher with Dorance Armstrong being No. 4 and last year’s fifth-round pick Bradlee Anae competing to get in the mix. Urban could also help in this area. But the position group is just too important. It needs more young prospects capable of developing into regular contributors. It’ll be interesting to see the type of edge rushers Quinn looks to add. Last year’s mix of Lawrence and Aldon Smith wasn’t great. Lawrence is better in a 4-3 with his hand on the ground. Smith is better standing up in a 3-4. McCarthy continues to say they will target the top players and fit the system around them, so don’t completely rule out the 3-4 outside linebacker type of edge rushers that could pretty much be crossed off the list under the previous coaching staff. The last two on Brugler’s list — Dayo Odeyingbo and Rashad Weaver — are pretty intriguing possibilities at Pick 99. Even though none from this group are expected to go in the top 12, there will likely be a run on the position at some point in the first round. Will there be quality options available at Pick 44? It all depends on when that run starts. The Cowboys had the 47th pick in 2014 when they traded with Washington to get up to No. 34 and select Lawrence. They certainly have the picks this year to make a similar move.

Brugler’s top 12 edge rushers:

1. Azeez Ojulari, Georgia (6-2, 249)
2. Kwity Paye, Michigan (6-2, 261)
3. Jaelan Phillips, Miami (6-5, 265)
4. Jayson Oweh, Penn State (6-5, 257)
5. Gregory Rousseau, Miami (6-7, 265)
6. Carlos Basham, Wake Forest (6-4, 274)
7. Joe Tryon, Washington (6-4, 263)
8. Joseph Ossai, Texas (6-4, 256)
9. Payton Turner, Houston (6-5, 270)
10. Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma (6-3, 253)
11. Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt (6-5, 285)
12. Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh (6-4, 259)
 
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