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By Jon Machota 1h ago
There were a lot more uncertainties in the NFL a year ago at this time. The Cowboys were preparing to hold training camp at The Star and they weren’t even sure if they’d play a full season because of the coronavirus pandemic.
So a year ago around this time, we published a list of 10 Cowboys-related scenarios, ranking them in order of most likely to least likely. While the likelihood of Dallas adding a proven veteran edge rusher like Everson Griffen ended up happening, the Cowboys did not win the NFC East and Dak Prescott did not get a long-term deal done before the start of training camp. Both of those were ranked as more likely than the Griffen addition.
With the Cowboys heading to California for training camp in two weeks, we’re taking another crack at a similar ranking, this time with 15 scenarios.
And here it is, starting with the most likely.
1. Trevon Diggs leads the defense in takeaways.
Diggs, who missed four games with a foot injury, finished second last year to safety Donovan Wilson. Diggs led the team in interceptions with three, but Wilson totaled two interceptions and three forced fumbles. As long as Diggs is healthy, he’s the favorite to lead the team in 2021. Other top candidates include Wilson, edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence, rookie linebacker Micah Parsons, safety Damontae Kazee and edge rusher Randy Gregory.
2. Micah Parsons will be the star of Hard Knocks.
It was revealed last week that the Cowboys would be featured on the reality documentary TV series. The NFL Films cameras will be following the team around throughout training camp and the preseason. Rookies generally represent a major storyline on the show and none are more popular on the Cowboys roster than their first-round pick. Parsons has a big personality, which was showcased in ESPN’s pre-draft TV series titled: “Hey Rookie: Welcome to the NFL.” Other top candidates to be stars of Hard Knocks: Prescott, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, linebacker Jaylon Smith, rookie cornerback Kelvin Joseph, cornerback Jourdan Lewis and special teams coordinator John Fassel.
3. Dak Prescott starts all 17 games.
This wouldn’t have made a list like this in any of the previous years Prescott has been on the team, but because he’s coming off a season-ending ankle injury, his health is a major storyline. Prescott showed no signs of having been injured when he worked out in front of reporters during organized team activities and minicamp. But his workload will be ramped up and there will be more defenders around his surgically-repaired right ankle during training camp and the preseason. Prescott started 69 consecutive games to start his NFL career before the ankle injury last season in Week 5.
4. The Cowboys win at least nine games.
They only won six last year as Prescott, Tyron Smith and La’el Collins missed most, if not all, of the season. This should be a bounce-back year, aided by playing in the NFL’s weakest division and having one of the league’s weakest schedules. The expectation is that they should be around 10 or 11 wins, so finishing with a winning record seems doable with the talent on the roster and the veteran coaching staff in place.
5. Ezekiel Elliott rushes for more than 1,200 yards.
If the Cowboys have a winning record, Elliott should be able to surpass 1,200 yards. He averaged 65 rushing yards per game last season and it was the worst statistical season of his career. Having Prescott back along with a healthy offensive line should provide a significant boost to the running game. In a 17-game season, Elliott would need to average 71 yards per game to top 1,200. He turns 26 later this month. Don’t be surprised to see a bounce-back season.
6. The Cowboys win the NFC East.
If last season wasn’t such a disaster, this would’ve been higher on the list. Despite all of the key injuries and questionable effort defensively in far too many games, Dallas was still in position to win the division at the end of the season. Dallas now has a healthy franchise quarterback, a new defensive coordinator and the most talented roster in the NFC East. They have to be the favorites to win the division over Washington, New York and Philadelphia.
7. CeeDee Lamb leads the team in receiving yards.
Lamb has only scratched the surface of what he can be in the NFL. He should lead the Cowboys in receiving yards for many years to come. But will he step into that No. 1 role this season? Amari Cooper is still the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. He led the team in receiving yards last year with 1,114. Lamb was second with 935. Cooper, Lamb and Michael Gallup all have a realistic shot at going over 1,000 yards this year, as long as Prescott is healthy. And Prescott has a good rapport with all three, so any of them could end up leading the team in this category.
CeeDee Lamb (Tim Heitman / USA Today)
8. The Cowboys finish with the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense.
It’s certainly possible. The weapons are all there if there aren’t any major injuries. Before Prescott was lost for the season, the Cowboys were averaging 31.5 points per game. The Packers led the NFL at 31.8. The Ravens led the league in 2019 at 33.2 while the Cowboys finished sixth at 27.1. Dallas’ toughest competition will likely be the Packers (as long as Aaron Rodgers is playing), Bills, Chiefs, Buccaneers and Titans.
9. Micah Parsons wins defensive rookie of the year.
There’s no question he’s expected to be the Cowboys’ top rookie this season. If OTAs and minicamp were any indication, new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will be looking to play Parsons all over the place with him rarely coming off the field. But winning this award also depends on how the other top defensive rookies perform. Parsons’ top competition for the award will likely be Washington linebacker Jamin Davis, Miami edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, Arizona linebacker Zaven Collins, Indianapolis edge rusher Kwity Paye and Cleveland linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
10. The run defense finishes top 15 in the league.
Now, this might seem highly unlikely coming off last year’s performance when the Cowboys’ defense was historically bad, allowing opponents 158.5 yards per game on the ground. Only Houston allowed more yards per game (160.3). Effort was a major factor. When the Cowboys didn’t have those effort issues in the past, even though the defense wasn’t always great, they were usually among the league’s best at stopping the run. This could be an area that turns around rather quickly if the players are completely bought into Quinn’s system. Cracking the top 15 would be allowing around 110 to 115 rushing yards per game. Dallas held opponents under that average every season from 2016 through 2019.
11. DeMarcus Lawrence finishes with double-digit sacks.
It hasn’t happened in the last two seasons, but maybe a second year working in a more multiple defense will lead to better numbers in the sack department for Lawrence, 29. He remains the defense’s most valuable player. He helps in more ways than just tackling opposing quarterbacks. But the Cowboys need more production from him in that area. Lawrence had 6.5 sacks last year and five in 2019 after finishing with 10.5 in 2018 and 14.5 in 2017.
12. Randy Gregory finishes with double-digit sacks.
Gregory is expected to see much more playing time this season than he did a year ago. Aldon Smith, who started all 16 games last year on the right end, is no longer on the roster. If Gregory plays all 17 games, no one should be surprised if he ended up leading the team in sacks. He has 10.5 sacks in 38 career games. He had 3.5 in 10 games last year.
13. Mike McCarthy doesn’t make it to a third year in Dallas.
The season would have to be even more of a disaster than last year for that to happen. What is far more likely is that the Cowboys improve on what they did in 2020, make the playoffs, but don’t get beyond the divisional round, which is what ultimately got Jason Garrett fired. Jerry Jones won’t keep McCarthy around as long as he did with Garrett if the postseason success isn’t there. But it’s still far more likely that McCarthy gets at least three seasons to prove he can have January success with the Cowboys.
14. Tyron Smith plays all 17 games.
The veteran left tackle looked and sounded during offseason workouts like someone who envisions playing for several more seasons. He’s extremely optimistic about the results of his neck surgery and how it might also help with the issues he’s had with his back. But playing all 17 games just seems like a lot to expect from someone who hasn’t played a full season since 2015. If he does, that would likely mean an excellent season for the offense. One of the biggest keys to putting together a big year on that side of the ball will be having that same line together all 17 weeks. If they’re constantly going through new combinations like last season, all of those talented weapons won’t matter much.
15. The Cowboys get to the NFC Championship Game.
This is easily the most unlikely just because it’s been more than 25 years since it last happened. Not only would the team have to stay healthy, but the defense would have to make such a dramatic turnaround that Quinn would likely be right back in the mix as an NFL head coaching candidate. The same would probably be true for offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. McCarthy’s job would be extremely secure. There wouldn’t be many left criticizing Prescott’s new contract. It would make for some pretty exciting times. But again, 1995 was a long time ago in NFL years. It’s difficult to envision getting back to that level until it finally happens.