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By Jon Machota Mar 18, 2020
A significant change is coming to the Cowboys offense. No, this isn’t about how much power Mike McCarthy will allow Kellen Moore to have in calling plays. This isn’t about Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper or the offensive line. This is about the tight end position.
When Blake Jarwin signed his three-year contract extension, worth $22 million, on Monday at The Star, it proved that Dallas was going in a different direction at the position. The days of Jason Witten being the No. 1 tight end were coming to an end.
A day later, we found out Witten was leaving Dallas and headed to Las Vegas, agreeing to a one-year deal with the Raiders reportedly worth up to $4.75 million.
Witten knew his time might be up with the Cowboys after McCarthy replaced Jason Garrett in January. Witten met with McCarthy shortly after the coaching change. A month later he was still keeping in touch with Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and executive vice president Stephen Jones.
Jerry Jones said at the NFL combine three weeks ago that he wanted Witten back for his 17th season.
“I would hope that he would not ever be anything but a Cowboy,” Jerry Jones said. “It’s meaningful. I do think he can play. As I sit here right now, I think he can make a real contribution to the Cowboys.”
It now appears McCarthy had other plans.
This says something about the power the Cowboys owner and general manager is allowing his new head coach to wield in his first season. The belief since McCarthy was hired has been that he will have a significant say in the personnel on the roster, whether that’s in free agency, trades or the draft.
Although Witten’s best days are behind him, he was still the Cowboys’ most productive tight end at the age of 37. He’s the franchise’s all-time leader in games played (255), receiving yards (12,977), receptions (1,215) and second in receiving touchdowns (72).
The largest photo inside the team’s headquarters is one of Witten running without a helmet after taking that huge hit at Philadelphia in 2007.
But McCarthy and his coaching staff are now officially going in a different direction at the position. Jarwin is No. 1 on the depth chart, and Dalton Schultz is the only other tight end on the roster. This means two things: Jarwin’s production should increase in 2020, and the Cowboys need to add to the position. Look for them to do that with a veteran in free agency and/or a player at some point in the draft. That’s not to say it will be 2014 first-round pick Eric Ebron, but maybe a lesser investment like former Packers Richard Rodgers or Marcedes Lewis. Neither would replace Jarwin as the starting tight end, but they’d provide the group with a veteran presence at a low cost. In the draft, think more of the middle to late rounds. There are still too many needs on defense for Dallas to add a tight end early on.
This brings us to the expectations for Jarwin. Judging by where the money is spent on this roster and the head coach they recently hired, the Cowboys should again be among the league leaders in yards and points per game. Dallas led the NFL with 431.5 yards per game last season. It was sixth in points per game at 27. There’s no reason to believe this won’t again be a high-powered offense.
Over the last two seasons, Jarwin has caught 58 passes for 672 yards and six touchdowns on 77 targets. That’s a decent starting point when projecting where he could end up over 16 games this year.
Witten averaged 973 offensive snaps per season over his last three years in the league. Jarwin played 436 offensive snaps last season and 387 in 2018, when the position was being filled by a trio of Jarwin, Geoff Swaim and Schultz.
Witten’s stats over his last two seasons as the Cowboys’ starting tight end were similar.
2019: 83 targets, 63 receptions, 529 yards, four touchdowns.
2017: 87 targets, 63 receptions, 560 yards, five touchdowns.
Jarwin has seen one target per every 10.7 snaps. Adjust that over the 973 snaps that Witten was getting, and Jarwin would be looking at 91 targets in 2020. If prorated over his production to date with no improvement assumed, he would be on pace for 69 catches, 794 yards and seven touchdowns. That seems a little high, however, considering only six tight ends were targeted 90 or more times last season and only five in 2018.
Jarwin’s greatest strength is his receiving ability, but he’s still going to be surrounded with talented weapons like Cooper, Elliott and Michael Gallup. They are all going to be heavily involved. Dallas will also look to replace the loss of Randall Cobb’s 83 targets in free agency or the draft. The point is, Jarwin will get more opportunities, but he’s not going to be utilized like Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz or George Kittle.
Only six tight ends had six or more TDs last season. Projecting Jarwin for five touchdowns is a better bet. Thirteen tight ends finished with five or more in 2019.
A more realistic projection, presuming Jarwin plays all 16 games, would be getting targeted around 80 times and catching about 60 passes for 650 yards and five touchdowns.
Jarwin’s four-year deal keeps him in Dallas through the 2023 season. According to Over the Cap, his annual salary of $5.5 million ranks 18th among current tight ends under contract. If Hunter Henry plays under the franchise tag in 2020, he’d top the list of highest-paid tight ends at $10.6 million. Kelce is next, averaging $9.3 million per season. He’s followed by Kyle Rudolph ($9 million) and Ertz ($8.5 million).
Jarwin is scheduled to make almost half that. The deal also includes very little guaranteed money, so if he fails to meet expectations, the team can move on without real repercussions. If his production ends up being anywhere close to 60 catches, 650 yards and five touchdowns, this is an outstanding deal for the Cowboys.
A significant change is coming to the Cowboys offense. No, this isn’t about how much power Mike McCarthy will allow Kellen Moore to have in calling plays. This isn’t about Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper or the offensive line. This is about the tight end position.
When Blake Jarwin signed his three-year contract extension, worth $22 million, on Monday at The Star, it proved that Dallas was going in a different direction at the position. The days of Jason Witten being the No. 1 tight end were coming to an end.
A day later, we found out Witten was leaving Dallas and headed to Las Vegas, agreeing to a one-year deal with the Raiders reportedly worth up to $4.75 million.
Witten knew his time might be up with the Cowboys after McCarthy replaced Jason Garrett in January. Witten met with McCarthy shortly after the coaching change. A month later he was still keeping in touch with Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and executive vice president Stephen Jones.
Jerry Jones said at the NFL combine three weeks ago that he wanted Witten back for his 17th season.
“I would hope that he would not ever be anything but a Cowboy,” Jerry Jones said. “It’s meaningful. I do think he can play. As I sit here right now, I think he can make a real contribution to the Cowboys.”
It now appears McCarthy had other plans.
This says something about the power the Cowboys owner and general manager is allowing his new head coach to wield in his first season. The belief since McCarthy was hired has been that he will have a significant say in the personnel on the roster, whether that’s in free agency, trades or the draft.
Although Witten’s best days are behind him, he was still the Cowboys’ most productive tight end at the age of 37. He’s the franchise’s all-time leader in games played (255), receiving yards (12,977), receptions (1,215) and second in receiving touchdowns (72).
The largest photo inside the team’s headquarters is one of Witten running without a helmet after taking that huge hit at Philadelphia in 2007.
But McCarthy and his coaching staff are now officially going in a different direction at the position. Jarwin is No. 1 on the depth chart, and Dalton Schultz is the only other tight end on the roster. This means two things: Jarwin’s production should increase in 2020, and the Cowboys need to add to the position. Look for them to do that with a veteran in free agency and/or a player at some point in the draft. That’s not to say it will be 2014 first-round pick Eric Ebron, but maybe a lesser investment like former Packers Richard Rodgers or Marcedes Lewis. Neither would replace Jarwin as the starting tight end, but they’d provide the group with a veteran presence at a low cost. In the draft, think more of the middle to late rounds. There are still too many needs on defense for Dallas to add a tight end early on.
This brings us to the expectations for Jarwin. Judging by where the money is spent on this roster and the head coach they recently hired, the Cowboys should again be among the league leaders in yards and points per game. Dallas led the NFL with 431.5 yards per game last season. It was sixth in points per game at 27. There’s no reason to believe this won’t again be a high-powered offense.
Over the last two seasons, Jarwin has caught 58 passes for 672 yards and six touchdowns on 77 targets. That’s a decent starting point when projecting where he could end up over 16 games this year.
Witten averaged 973 offensive snaps per season over his last three years in the league. Jarwin played 436 offensive snaps last season and 387 in 2018, when the position was being filled by a trio of Jarwin, Geoff Swaim and Schultz.
Witten’s stats over his last two seasons as the Cowboys’ starting tight end were similar.
2019: 83 targets, 63 receptions, 529 yards, four touchdowns.
2017: 87 targets, 63 receptions, 560 yards, five touchdowns.
Jarwin has seen one target per every 10.7 snaps. Adjust that over the 973 snaps that Witten was getting, and Jarwin would be looking at 91 targets in 2020. If prorated over his production to date with no improvement assumed, he would be on pace for 69 catches, 794 yards and seven touchdowns. That seems a little high, however, considering only six tight ends were targeted 90 or more times last season and only five in 2018.
Jarwin’s greatest strength is his receiving ability, but he’s still going to be surrounded with talented weapons like Cooper, Elliott and Michael Gallup. They are all going to be heavily involved. Dallas will also look to replace the loss of Randall Cobb’s 83 targets in free agency or the draft. The point is, Jarwin will get more opportunities, but he’s not going to be utilized like Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz or George Kittle.
Only six tight ends had six or more TDs last season. Projecting Jarwin for five touchdowns is a better bet. Thirteen tight ends finished with five or more in 2019.
A more realistic projection, presuming Jarwin plays all 16 games, would be getting targeted around 80 times and catching about 60 passes for 650 yards and five touchdowns.
Jarwin’s four-year deal keeps him in Dallas through the 2023 season. According to Over the Cap, his annual salary of $5.5 million ranks 18th among current tight ends under contract. If Hunter Henry plays under the franchise tag in 2020, he’d top the list of highest-paid tight ends at $10.6 million. Kelce is next, averaging $9.3 million per season. He’s followed by Kyle Rudolph ($9 million) and Ertz ($8.5 million).
Jarwin is scheduled to make almost half that. The deal also includes very little guaranteed money, so if he fails to meet expectations, the team can move on without real repercussions. If his production ends up being anywhere close to 60 catches, 650 yards and five touchdowns, this is an outstanding deal for the Cowboys.
