Machota: Final Cowboys 53-man roster projection - The backup QB decision, big OL group and 11 in the secondary

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By Jon Machota Aug 29, 2021

ARLINGTON, Texas — The Cowboys roster must be trimmed from 80 to 53 by Tuesday at 3 p.m. CT. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said after Sunday’s preseason finale that he kept thinking about the tough decisions and conversations he’d be having in the upcoming days.

“These are the worst days,” McCarthy said. “The next 48 hours is clearly the worst part of the job.”

After watching a month of training camp practices and four preseason games, here is my final 53-man roster projection.

Quarterback (2)

Dak Prescott, Garrett Gilbert

The backup quarterback battle has been closer than the coaching staff probably would’ve wanted this late in the preseason. Garrett Gilbert was a considerable favorite for most of training camp, but that changed in the third preseason game when Cooper Rush significantly outplayed Gilbert. Sunday’s fourth preseason game against the Jaguars will play a role in the final decision.

Rush started and played in the first three series, completing 4 of 8 passes for 16 yards and a 56.3 passer rating. Dallas did not score any points on those possessions. Gilbert then played the rest of the first half, a total of four series. He completed 9 of 16 passes for 87 yards, one touchdown pass and a 92.5 passer rating. Neither received great offensive line play in front of them. But Gilbert had the better day.

It’s a close call, but I’m going to say Gilbert wins the No. 2 job. But don’t rule out the possibility of the Cowboys addressing the position with a QB who is made available when other teams trim their rosters.

Running back (2)

Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard

Entering training camp, Rico Dowdle and Sewo Olonilua had an excellent chance to join Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard on the initial 53-man roster. But injuries have forced Dowdle and Olonilua out of the equation, opening the door for undrafted rookie free agents Nick Ralston, JaQuan Hardy and Brenden Knox. Ralston gets the nod if Mike McCarthy wants to keep a fullback. McCarthy rostered a fullback — John Kuhn for nine seasons and then Aaron Ripkowski for three — during his 13 years in Green Bay. The Cowboys could also look to sign a veteran running back released by another team to be their No. 3 back. I think that’s the direction they’ll end up going.

Tight end (4)

Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz, Sean McKeon, Jeremy Sprinkle

Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz will get almost all of the offensive playing time during the season, but the Cowboys will need at least one more. Sean McKeon is still working his way back from a high ankle sprain, which means he could start the season on injured reserve. But he has to be on the 53-man roster on Tuesday before making an IR move so he can return this season. McKeon was No. 3 on the depth chart before the injury. Veteran Jeremy Sprinkle makes the most sense as the No. 3 to start the season. He has four years of NFL experience (33 starts), mostly as a blocking tight end.

Wide receiver (5)

Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, Noah Brown

The top five have been locked in since the start of training camp. The No. 6 spot has been the most interesting to monitor throughout camp. The Cowboys could certainly stick with five, but if they go with six, the final spot comes down to fifth-round pick Simi Fehoko and veteran Malik Turner. If we were judging only by what they’ve done on the field over the last month, Turner would be the pick. But if the Cowboys are convinced that Fehoko can be a significant contributor in the future, he might get the nod. I think they stick with only five.

“He’s a good player,” 49ers GM John Lynch said of Fehoko during the Hall of Fame Game TV broadcast. “We liked him a lot in San Francisco. He kind of hung around there in the draft. I think the Cowboys got a good one.”

Offensive line (11)

Tyron Smith, Connor Williams, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin, La’el Collins, Connor McGovern, Ty Nsekhe, Brandon Knight, Terence Steele, Matt Farniok, Josh Ball
After the starting five, there are three who have seemingly locked in a spot: veteran swing tackle Ty Nsekhe, third-year guard Connor McGovern and second-year offensive tackle Terence Steele. Next would be the draft picks: fourth-round offensive tackle Josh Ball and seventh-round interior offensive lineman Matt Farniok. That leaves Brandon Knight. If the Cowboys go with 10 offensive linemen on the initial 53, like last year, Knight is probably the odd man out. Ball (ankle) is likely to be moved to injured reserve to open the season, which would make Knight the 10th man, capable of helping at tackle or guard. If you’re going to go long at a position, offensive line is never a bad spot.

Special teams (4)

Greg Zuerlein, Bryan Anger, Jake McQuaide, C.J. Goodwin

Not a lot of drama with this group. There are no other kickers, punters or long snappers on the current roster. C.J. Goodwin has been dealing with a hamstring injury, but the Cowboys’ best special-teams player is expected to be ready for the start of the season. Veteran kicker Greg Zuerlein is working his way back from offseason back surgery, but he and special-teams coordinator John Fassel are confident that he’ll be at full strength for Week 1.

Defensive line (9)

DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, Neville Gallimore, Quinton Bohanna, Osa Odighizuwa, Brent Urban, Carlos Watkins, Dorance Armstrong, Tarell Basham
Defensive tackle Trysten Hill (knee) and rookie defensive end Chauncey Golston (hamstring) would be on the 53 if not for injuries. Both are on the physically unable to perform list. It’s a pretty good bet they’ll stay there to start the season. It would be a surprise if any of the nine listed above didn’t make the team. Neville Gallimore (elbow) isn’t expected back for another month, so they’ll need some help at defensive tackle. Maybe that player isn’t on the current roster. If he is, that player could be Justin Hamilton.

Linebacker (5)

Micah Parsons, Keanu Neal, Leighton Vander Esch, Jaylon Smith, Jabril Cox

The Cowboys would prefer to have six here, but they might need the extra spot for another defensive back. The gap between five and six isn’t close. The first five are set, and it makes for the deepest defensive position group on the roster. If they were to keep six, Luke Gifford would be next in line, and it would be for help on special teams. But I’m sticking with five.

Cornerback (6)

Trevon Diggs, Kelvin Joseph, Anthony Brown, Jourdan Lewis, Maurice Canady, Nahshon Wright

The Week 1 starters will be Trevon Diggs, Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis when the Cowboys are in their nickel package. Second-round pick Kelvin Joseph would probably be next up, but he exited the final preseason game with a groin injury. Maurice Canady was very productive playing on the inside during training camp, picking off a team-high five passes. Nahshon Wright improved throughout his first camp and Dallas thinks highly of what he can be in the future. There’s not another corner on the roster who’s close to these six.

Safety (5)

Donovan Wilson, Damontae Kazee, Jayron Kearse, Malik Hooker, Israel Mukuamu

Five safeties are more than usual. Rookie Israel Mukuamu might’ve secured a spot with his interception across the middle late in the second quarter Sunday afternoon. Malik Hooker hasn’t done enough with just his play to make the roster. But his reputation and potential upside are enough for the 2017 first-round pick to get a roster spot. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said as much on the pregame show on Sunday, stating that “there’s no question (Hooker’s) going to make the team.”

 

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Sturm’s final Cowboys 53-man roster projection: Heavy on defense and special teams

By Bob Sturm 3h ago

Thankfully, we have a fun exercise to replace any sort of game recap with here as trying to dignify that preseason game from Sunday with Jacksonville with words is probably a bridge too far.

So let’s skip it.

Late last week, I did a post on how special teams determine rosters. I believe what I wrote for sure, but I also have to admit that the math of this particular roster selection may put my initial thoughts to the test. Teams have a 53-man roster, but also a 16-man practice squad for their 69-man unit to navigate the season. The thing is, the 53-man roster is protected from vultures, but the practice squad is not. Players who are put there can be grabbed by other teams and organizations. Therefore, you may not always keep your preferred 53. Rather, you would keep the 53 players you think are most likely to be snapped up if made available.

Also, we have the guaranteed salaries for veterans if they are on your roster for Week 1. So, if you have an older player and you want to keep him around on a week-to-week basis, we certainly know that teams often don’t bring them into the fold until the start of Week 2 and play the opener without them.

There are also other considerations. The PUP list doesn’t count, but the IR list does. If you wish to put a player on IR and possibly bring him back this year, then he must be on the 53. If you are fine with a season-long IR, then he doesn’t. PUP is a way to slide through a few players, so we assume Trysten Hill and Chauncey Golston will stay there — even if they are ready to give two more exemptions.

And, finally, but definitely not the slightest of your things to remember — the Cowboys will have some players earmarked carefully for their own claims. For instance, a certain Rams punter and maybe a running back who can play special teams better than JaQuan Hardy. If you like someone else’s cuts better than your 52nd or 53rd player, then you are not really naming your roster until you make your claims and some very happy men will then instantly become very sad.

Now you know what we are dealing with. I took out three different colors of highlighter and made my first pass of the roster with the color green, the second pass with the color yellow and the final pass with red.

Green means that these guys made the roster before camp began. They have roster guarantees and are key parts of the production. There was virtually no chance — barring something very unforeseen — that they could miss the cuts to 53 to start the season. I had 29 players in green.

Yellow means these guys made the roster with a reasonable camp where they simply showed they had the goods or won a battle (which I am assuming they actually won). They were already on the roster when camp began, so they just had to make sure they didn’t fall on their faces. I had 19 more in yellow.

So, 29 greens and 19 yellows put us quickly and easily at 48 names.

Red were the final 11 names for five spots. Again, I want to be clear, these names are not necessarily going to get the final five spots on merit, as much as on value. Therefore, a player who has already been decent at the NFL level and is still young or a 2021 draft pick will definitely get the nod over a veteran vagabond who hypothetically will always be the type to be considered a borderline “street free agent.”

At the bottom of the piece, I will reveal those players by color. But, let’s do it by position here for the format of the piece.

Offense (22)

Quarterback (2)

Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush

I had the luxury of letting my friend Mr. Machota go first in this exercise and he thinks Garrett Gilbert won the backup job. I am not here to argue and I certainly don’t want anyone to think this is a good battle, because they don’t have a good backup QB in my estimation. But, I do think that Rush has demonstrated a better ability to know the offense, process the information and most importantly to get the ball out on time. I would not be too upset either way, but I have been convinced recently that Rush is the better equipped of the two to win a few games in a month. They should continue to shop for a better backup option, though.

Running back (2)

Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard

This is a spot where I think you probably want to scan the waiver wire for a third option who can help on special teams and offer something in the way of injury cover in the event one of these two gets banged up. To be very honest, the Cowboys didn’t have much to choose from behind Zeke and Pollard. Hardy is a nice story, but we aren’t worried about stories. We need utility players deep on the roster.

Tight end (3)

Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz, Jeremy Sprinkle

I think Machota likes Sean McKeon to make this group and to make it four tight ends and that is definitely something that Mike McCarthy believes in is surplus tight ends, but I just don’t see the point with this much 11 personnel on the roster and frankly have doubts that McKeon cannot make it through to the practice squad if need be since he is hurt. We will see if I am wrong, but I am taking three.

Wide receiver (5)

Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Cedrick Wilson, Noah Brown

I just don’t think that they can carry more than five and those five have been locked in all along. Simi Fehoko is interesting, but he is what I want to call “practice squad interesting” for now. Very possible and maybe even likely that he might be claimed, but wide receiver is a spot that is plentiful out there on practice squads and Fehoko is somewhere in the pack as opposed to clearly above it.

Offensive line (10)

Tyron Smith, La’el Collins, Zack Martin, Connor Williams, Tyler Biadasz, Ty Nsekhe, Connor McGovern, Matt Farniok, Brandon Knight, Josh Ball

Here, I allowed Terence Steele to try to slide through and Isaac Alarcon, but I assume if either is claimed, we should be able to survive this. I also kept Knight at the last second because he can offer positional versatility at tackle and guard, but I also don’t really want him to play tackle if I can help it. He is better than Steele. I like Farniok at center and McGovern is still a candidate to replace Williams in 2022.

Defense (28)

Defensive line (11)

DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, Bradlee Anae, Tarell Basham, Dorance Armstrong, Ron’Dell Carter, Carlos Watkins, Neville Gallimore, Brent Urban, Osa Odighizuwa, Quinton Bohanna

It appears on this list Machota did not push Anae or Carter through, but I think the Cowboys are really impressed by both of them. That said, it might be as placeholders until Hill and Golston can join off of PUP, but I think they have great depth here and want awesome competition. The issues are that all the kids might be claimed, so you have to be careful to try to sneak pass rushers through because they often won’t make it. Armstrong might make it through, but John Fassel likes him on special teams a lot.

Linebacker (6)

Micah Parsons, Keanu Neal, Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, Jabril Cox, Luke Gifford

This group is certainly interesting because Smith made the team when they let his contract activate in March. Barring a trade, they will just keep him, but dressing him might be interesting. Otherwise, they have four linebackers who all could start, but Parsons is a potential superstar and Neal looks legit, too. I believe Gifford will make the team on special teams, but this is also a disagreement with my colleague.

Cornerback (7)

Anthony Brown, Kelvin Joseph, Jourdan Lewis, Trevon Diggs, Nahshon Wright, Maurice Canady, C.J. Goodwin

Seven corners are too many, but Goodwin is a special-teams ace and won’t really play defense. Wright and Joseph are deep reserves and the other four will play a ton. I think they might thin this group out, but I suspect they wish to set sail with a loaded defensive backfield that might have some inactives every week and it will likely be at least one of those rookies.

Safety (4)

Donovan Wilson, Damontae Kazee, Malik Hooker, Darian Thompson

This is admittedly an odd fit because Neal already is sort of a safety and Hooker made the team when he signed because Jerry said so. Jayron Kearse could easily be the pick instead of Thompson, but again, special teams might determine this. And Israel Mukuamu lost out when they decided Hooker is worth the trouble. By the way, I agree. Mukuamu should be available for the practice squad.

I know 28 seems a ton for defense, but at least 3-4 will all be pure special teams.

Special teams (3)

Greg Zuerlein, Bryan Anger, Jake McQuaide

Not much to add here, but special teams must be a priority and while the punter might not be fully in stone, the others are. This is your group, in my estimation which I am sure will be proven wrong by Tuesday in some capacity. I just would like to score more than Machota to score a point in our feud.

Now, back to my color coding from above:

Green (29): Prescott, Elliott, Pollard, Jarwin, Schultz, Collins, Martin, Biadasz, Williams, Smith, Lamb, Gallup, Cooper (13 offense), Lawrence, Bohanna, Odighizuwa, Gallimore, Gregory, Parsons, Smith, Neal, Vander Esch, Brown, Wilson, Joseph, Diggs, Lewis, Wright (15 defense), Zuerlein (1 specialist)

Yellow (19): Rush, Brown, Wilson, Nsekhe, McGovern, Farniok, Ball, Sprinkle (8 offense), Anae, Basham, Watkins, Urban, Cox, Kazee, Hooker, Canady, Goodwin (9 defense), McQuaide and Anger (2 specialists).

Red candidates (11 to pick 5): McKeon, Fehoko, Knight, Hardy, Hamilton, Carter, Armstrong, Gifford, Thompson, Kamara, Mukuamu.
Red (5): Knight, Armstrong, Gifford, Thompson, Carter.

Bottom line: The Cowboys will get to 53 and take the team picture, but I must remind all involved — there is never a final roster. A good front office is always looking for ways to upgrade. This is a 365-day business objective.

Now, let’s have some football.