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By Jon Machota
5h ago
It’s that time of year again when we visit potential Cowboys scenarios for the upcoming season, ranking them from most likely to least likely. Here is the ranking from last year.
Coming off a 12-win season, the assumption would be that expectations are high and the fan base is excited about the next step. But there really aren’t those types of feelings surrounding this year’s team. Regardless of what players, coaches and front-office members have said this offseason, roster changes and last season’s disappointing showing in the playoffs have many taking a wait-and-see approach.
“We know what we have in this locker room, and we know what we can be,” Cowboys QB Dak Prescott said last month. “Talent is one thing. But if you don’t fulfill it, it doesn’t really mean anything. So just from the names and stuff like that, we got young players that just haven’t had a chance to make a name for themselves. I’m excited for those guys to be able to do that and for them to prove people wrong. I know what this team has and the men that we have and the coaches and the leadership, and we definitely didn’t take a step back. We’re going to continue to get better, and that’s what this offseason is about and that’s what moving forward is.”
Here are 15 scenarios for the upcoming season, ranked in order of most likely to least likely.
1. Prescott throws for at least 4,000 yards and 33 touchdowns. In the past two seasons when Prescott has started 16 games, he has thrown for more than 4,400 yards and 30 touchdowns in both. The yardage number could come down a little with the losses of Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson, but a healthy Prescott should place among the top 10 QBs in both categories. Ten quarterbacks threw for more than 4,000 yards last season. Nine threw more than 30 TD passes.
2. CeeDee Lamb finishes top-10 in receiving yards. With Cooper in Cleveland, Lamb is the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver in Dallas. He led the team in receptions with 79 and receiving yards with 1,102 last season. He was 60 yards short of finishing in the top 10 in 2021. He should continue to improve in his third NFL season.
3. Trevon Diggs intercepts at least five passes. That might seem like an easy number to top when coming off an 11-interception season. But opposing quarterbacks are going to be even more hesitant to throw in his direction after last season’s historic performance. Six interceptions led the NFL in 2019. Only three players had six or more in 2020. Only three players had six or more in 2021. Diggs has rare pass-catching skills and athleticism. He’ll make the most of his opportunities, even if they aren’t often.
Trevon Diggs (Brian Fluharty / USA Today)
4. Dallas finishes top-10 in takeaways for the third consecutive season. The Cowboys led the league last season with 34 takeaways. They finished seventh in 2020 with 23. Though it’s highly unlikely they will lead the league for a second consecutive year, a top-10 finish is possible with Micah Parsons causing issues all over the field, a healthy DeMarcus Lawrence rushing the passer and an experienced veteran secondary more familiar with Dan Quinn’s defensive style.
5. The Cowboys win at least 10 games. The current BetMGM odds have Dallas’ over/under set at 10.5 wins. The Cowboys, who won 12 games last season, haven’t had back-to-back double-digit-win seasons since 1996, so maybe this is a little too high on our list. But the switch to a 17-game season changes things a bit. The Cowboys have averaged 9.6 wins over the past six seasons. Getting to 10 wins shouldn’t be considered a lofty expectation.
6. Parsons wins Defensive Player of the Year. He was in contention all season as a rookie. Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt won the award, receiving 42 of the 50 votes. Parsons was second with five votes. Rams DT Aaron Donald received the other three. Having a full year as a professional under his belt and entering a second season working with Quinn, Parsons should be among the favorites for the award in 2022. According to BetMGM, Parsons has the fourth-highest odds to win the award at +900, trailing Cleveland’s Myles Garrett (+600), Watt (+650) and Donald (+800).
7. Tyler Smith starts every game at left guard. It’s a good bet the first-round pick will start every game this season, but it might not be all at left guard. If left tackle Tyron Smith misses time, there’s a good chance Tyler Smith, the team’s projected left tackle of the future, will slide into that spot, even if it is a little earlier than the team was hoping.
8. Prescott runs more than 55 times. Now fully healthy, Prescott could end up using his feet a little more than he did a year ago. But don’t expect a significant jump. The Cowboys QB rushed 48 times last season. He ran 52 times in 2019. Although he averaged 63 rush attempts per season during his first three years, Prescott is unlikely to get back to that number in Year 7.
9. Dalton Schultz gets a long-term contract in the next month. Schultz is under the franchise tag, which will pay him just under $11 million for the upcoming season. The sides have until July 15 to work out a long-term contract. The Cowboys are likely to let Schultz play out the upcoming season and then revisit negotiations next offseason. If his statistics improve for a third consecutive season, Schultz will have a chance to become one of the NFL’s highest-paid tight ends in free agency. The Cowboys could also choose to tag him again next year.
10. Tyron Smith plays more than 13 games. The Cowboys would love for their eight-time Pro Bowl left tackle to play a full 17-game season, but it’s highly unlikely at this point in his career. Injuries have prevented Smith from playing in more than 13 games over each of the past six seasons. The over/under on games started for Smith should probably be around 10.
11. Tony Pollard rushes for more yards than Ezekiel Elliott. This is a big year for both players. Pollard is in the final year of his rookie deal. The Cowboys could be seeking a pay cut or looking to replace Elliott if he doesn’t have a big season. Elliott has led Dallas in rushing in the previous six seasons. That should continue in Year 7. His 1,002 rushing yards last season were the seventh most in the NFL. Pollard finished 29th with a career-high 719 rushing yards. The expectation is that Pollard will continue to get more touches in the running and passing games, but Elliott will still be the team leader when it comes to carries.
Tony Pollard (Jerome Miron / USA Today)
12. Dallas makes a trade for a veteran player during the season. The Cowboys did it in 2019, adding Michael Bennett in hopes of improving the pass rush. They also did it in 2018 to get Prescott a No. 1 WR in Cooper. They might see a similar opportunity to improve somewhere this season, depending on how things are going and where upgrades are needed. Who knows, maybe it ends up being similar to those other trades, adding pass-rushing help or getting Prescott another target in the passing game.
13. The Cowboys win a playoff game. Though their chances of making the postseason continue to be pretty good because of the competition in the NFC East, winning a playoff game is another story. Being the only NFL home team to lose its wild-card game last season with a relatively healthy roster was a significant blow. Why believe there’s a better chance this time around with a roster that isn’t as talented on paper as the one a year ago?
14. Lawrence leads the team in sacks. That’s one of the veteran defensive end’s goals for this season. Of course, that’s not going to be easy to accomplish with Parsons on the roster. Parsons is the favorite to lead the team after recording 13 sacks in 16 games in 2021. Lawrence hasn’t had double-digit sacks since 2018. But maybe all the attention Parsons is expected to receive will open up things for the starting left defensive end.
15. The Cowboys reach the Super Bowl. It hasn’t happened in the past 26 years, so it’s obviously the least likely scenario. Well, other than Jerry Jones hiring a general manager or selling the team.
5h ago
It’s that time of year again when we visit potential Cowboys scenarios for the upcoming season, ranking them from most likely to least likely. Here is the ranking from last year.
Coming off a 12-win season, the assumption would be that expectations are high and the fan base is excited about the next step. But there really aren’t those types of feelings surrounding this year’s team. Regardless of what players, coaches and front-office members have said this offseason, roster changes and last season’s disappointing showing in the playoffs have many taking a wait-and-see approach.
“We know what we have in this locker room, and we know what we can be,” Cowboys QB Dak Prescott said last month. “Talent is one thing. But if you don’t fulfill it, it doesn’t really mean anything. So just from the names and stuff like that, we got young players that just haven’t had a chance to make a name for themselves. I’m excited for those guys to be able to do that and for them to prove people wrong. I know what this team has and the men that we have and the coaches and the leadership, and we definitely didn’t take a step back. We’re going to continue to get better, and that’s what this offseason is about and that’s what moving forward is.”
Here are 15 scenarios for the upcoming season, ranked in order of most likely to least likely.
1. Prescott throws for at least 4,000 yards and 33 touchdowns. In the past two seasons when Prescott has started 16 games, he has thrown for more than 4,400 yards and 30 touchdowns in both. The yardage number could come down a little with the losses of Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson, but a healthy Prescott should place among the top 10 QBs in both categories. Ten quarterbacks threw for more than 4,000 yards last season. Nine threw more than 30 TD passes.
2. CeeDee Lamb finishes top-10 in receiving yards. With Cooper in Cleveland, Lamb is the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver in Dallas. He led the team in receptions with 79 and receiving yards with 1,102 last season. He was 60 yards short of finishing in the top 10 in 2021. He should continue to improve in his third NFL season.
3. Trevon Diggs intercepts at least five passes. That might seem like an easy number to top when coming off an 11-interception season. But opposing quarterbacks are going to be even more hesitant to throw in his direction after last season’s historic performance. Six interceptions led the NFL in 2019. Only three players had six or more in 2020. Only three players had six or more in 2021. Diggs has rare pass-catching skills and athleticism. He’ll make the most of his opportunities, even if they aren’t often.
Trevon Diggs (Brian Fluharty / USA Today)
4. Dallas finishes top-10 in takeaways for the third consecutive season. The Cowboys led the league last season with 34 takeaways. They finished seventh in 2020 with 23. Though it’s highly unlikely they will lead the league for a second consecutive year, a top-10 finish is possible with Micah Parsons causing issues all over the field, a healthy DeMarcus Lawrence rushing the passer and an experienced veteran secondary more familiar with Dan Quinn’s defensive style.
5. The Cowboys win at least 10 games. The current BetMGM odds have Dallas’ over/under set at 10.5 wins. The Cowboys, who won 12 games last season, haven’t had back-to-back double-digit-win seasons since 1996, so maybe this is a little too high on our list. But the switch to a 17-game season changes things a bit. The Cowboys have averaged 9.6 wins over the past six seasons. Getting to 10 wins shouldn’t be considered a lofty expectation.
6. Parsons wins Defensive Player of the Year. He was in contention all season as a rookie. Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt won the award, receiving 42 of the 50 votes. Parsons was second with five votes. Rams DT Aaron Donald received the other three. Having a full year as a professional under his belt and entering a second season working with Quinn, Parsons should be among the favorites for the award in 2022. According to BetMGM, Parsons has the fourth-highest odds to win the award at +900, trailing Cleveland’s Myles Garrett (+600), Watt (+650) and Donald (+800).
7. Tyler Smith starts every game at left guard. It’s a good bet the first-round pick will start every game this season, but it might not be all at left guard. If left tackle Tyron Smith misses time, there’s a good chance Tyler Smith, the team’s projected left tackle of the future, will slide into that spot, even if it is a little earlier than the team was hoping.
8. Prescott runs more than 55 times. Now fully healthy, Prescott could end up using his feet a little more than he did a year ago. But don’t expect a significant jump. The Cowboys QB rushed 48 times last season. He ran 52 times in 2019. Although he averaged 63 rush attempts per season during his first three years, Prescott is unlikely to get back to that number in Year 7.
9. Dalton Schultz gets a long-term contract in the next month. Schultz is under the franchise tag, which will pay him just under $11 million for the upcoming season. The sides have until July 15 to work out a long-term contract. The Cowboys are likely to let Schultz play out the upcoming season and then revisit negotiations next offseason. If his statistics improve for a third consecutive season, Schultz will have a chance to become one of the NFL’s highest-paid tight ends in free agency. The Cowboys could also choose to tag him again next year.
10. Tyron Smith plays more than 13 games. The Cowboys would love for their eight-time Pro Bowl left tackle to play a full 17-game season, but it’s highly unlikely at this point in his career. Injuries have prevented Smith from playing in more than 13 games over each of the past six seasons. The over/under on games started for Smith should probably be around 10.
11. Tony Pollard rushes for more yards than Ezekiel Elliott. This is a big year for both players. Pollard is in the final year of his rookie deal. The Cowboys could be seeking a pay cut or looking to replace Elliott if he doesn’t have a big season. Elliott has led Dallas in rushing in the previous six seasons. That should continue in Year 7. His 1,002 rushing yards last season were the seventh most in the NFL. Pollard finished 29th with a career-high 719 rushing yards. The expectation is that Pollard will continue to get more touches in the running and passing games, but Elliott will still be the team leader when it comes to carries.
Tony Pollard (Jerome Miron / USA Today)
12. Dallas makes a trade for a veteran player during the season. The Cowboys did it in 2019, adding Michael Bennett in hopes of improving the pass rush. They also did it in 2018 to get Prescott a No. 1 WR in Cooper. They might see a similar opportunity to improve somewhere this season, depending on how things are going and where upgrades are needed. Who knows, maybe it ends up being similar to those other trades, adding pass-rushing help or getting Prescott another target in the passing game.
13. The Cowboys win a playoff game. Though their chances of making the postseason continue to be pretty good because of the competition in the NFC East, winning a playoff game is another story. Being the only NFL home team to lose its wild-card game last season with a relatively healthy roster was a significant blow. Why believe there’s a better chance this time around with a roster that isn’t as talented on paper as the one a year ago?
14. Lawrence leads the team in sacks. That’s one of the veteran defensive end’s goals for this season. Of course, that’s not going to be easy to accomplish with Parsons on the roster. Parsons is the favorite to lead the team after recording 13 sacks in 16 games in 2021. Lawrence hasn’t had double-digit sacks since 2018. But maybe all the attention Parsons is expected to receive will open up things for the starting left defensive end.
15. The Cowboys reach the Super Bowl. It hasn’t happened in the past 26 years, so it’s obviously the least likely scenario. Well, other than Jerry Jones hiring a general manager or selling the team.
