Machota: Cowboys mailbag - More likely to trade back than up, thoughts on drafting OL in Round 1

Cotton

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ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 02: Jabril Cox #14 of the Dallas Cowboys runs against the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium on October 2, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

By Jon Machota
6h ago

We asked for Cowboys mailbag questions earlier in the week, so here are the responses to what turned out to be mostly drafted-related questions.

What is (Jabril) Cox’s status? He seemed to be a playmaker before his injury (e.g., stopping Daniel Jones on the goal line). But we didn’t see him on the field last season. Was it just due to the timing of his injury or is there another reason? — Jack R.

I think somewhat similar to Michael Gallup’s knee injury, Cox probably wasn’t all the way back last season. He suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 in 2021. He played in only nine games last season. He’s in position to have a bigger role this year with Anthony Barr no longer on the roster. But how the Cowboys handle the off-the-ball linebacker spot in a couple of weeks in the draft should be a good indication of how they feel about Cox. He’s currently third on the depth chart behind Leighton Vander Esch and Damone Clark. If they don’t take a linebacker in the first few rounds, they likely expect more from Cox this season. One of their official 30 pre-draft visits has been used on Arkansas LB Drew Sanders. He’s a potential first-round pick. If they’re using a first- or second-round pick on a linebacker, that’s probably not good news for Cox.

We all seem to be basing our draft predictions on offense based on Kellen Moore’s system. However shouldn’t we be trying to predict what McCarthy feels like we need for his new system? What does his past tell us about where he likes to invest in early rounds? (TE is probably out of the question early, right?) — Koji M.

During McCarthy’s 13 seasons in Green Bay, the Packers never drafted a tight end earlier than the third round. They used second-round picks to add key wide receivers like Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams. The only offensive position they spent a first-round pick on during that time was offensive tackles Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod. The Packers had 12 first-round picks with McCarthy as head coach and 10 were spent on defense. Where they had a lot of success was finding great value along the offensive line in the later rounds. They drafted Pro Bowl players like David Bakhtiari, J.C. Tretter, T.J. Lang and Josh Sitton in the fourth round. They drafted Corey Linsley in the fifth round.
https://theathletic.com/4400245/2023/04/11/cowboys-nfl-draft-receivers-the-beast/
As much as everyone hates drafting an O-lineman in the first round, wouldn’t it solidify the line to draft O’Cyrus Torrence? Tyron Smith’s odds of making it through the season are slim. Terence Steele is a question mark coming off knee surgery. Dallas needs to give Dak Prescott better protection against the huge Philly D-line and SF. — Brooks K.

I don’t think taking another offensive lineman in the first round is a bad idea. I’m not a fan of spending four or five picks on the offensive line, but two or three makes sense. And when I say that, I’m looking to the future, not knowing how much longer Tyron Smith and Zack Martin are going to play. After they’re done, Dallas’ first-round picks up front would be only Tyler Smith. Another potential key will be if that player has position-flex. It’s interesting to see that one of the Cowboys’ 30 visitors is Tennessee OT Darnell Wright. If he ended up being the pick at No. 26, he’d have an opportunity to play right tackle but also get some work at left guard. Torrence would probably be a plug-and-play left guard from Day 1, same with TCU’s Steve Avila. However, Avila also has the ability to play center. I think those three would be the most-likely candidates if Dallas was going to spend a first-round pick on the offensive line.
https://theathletic.com/4287568/2023/03/09/cowboys-nfl-draft-interior-offensive-line/
What’s a reasonable number per year that Trevon Diggs would agree to in upcoming contract talks? If he’s wanting too (much) CB money I’m more inclined to let someone else pay that, similar to what the Boys did with Chidobe Awuzie and Byron Jones. — Cole C.

Diggs is in a different class than those other two. I’d be much more willing to pay him than Jones or Awuzie. And the Cowboys feel the same way. Now, that doesn’t mean that the number couldn’t climb beyond Dallas’ comfort zone. I would expect him to be looking for something among the highest-paid at the position. So, that’s in the neighborhood of $20 million per year.

When would you consider it “acceptable” for Dallas to draft a developmental QB? Any names that stick out? — Brady L.

In my most recent seven-round mock draft, I had the Cowboys picking Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell in the sixth round. Dane Brugler has a fourth-round grade on him. I think TCU’s Max Duggan could make some sense in that sixth-round range. And then there is Houston’s Clayton Tune. Brugler has him with a fifth- to sixth-round grade. I think Round 5 or later makes sense if they like someone there. I don’t think it makes sense to reach higher than that for a player who might never take a meaningful snap for your franchise.



Georgia’s Nolan Smith (Dale Zanine / USA Today)

So adding at secondary and receiver seems to allow the Cowboys to pick the best player available rather than reaching for a need. That is how they obtained CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons. Who do you think will be the best player available at 26 and will the Cowboys go there or try to address D-line or TE needs? — Steve M.

It really depends on who is there. I think the second or third best WR on their board could be there. Maybe that’s Jordan Addison or Jalin Hyatt or Zay Flowers or Quentin Johnston. What would make things the most interesting is if someone like Texas RB Bijan Robinson or Georgia LB/DE Nolan Smith are there. Those two just seem like too good of a value at 26 to pass up. If both are gone, I’m thinking a defensive or offensive lineman is the pick.

Jon, do you think the Cowboys are still in the market for a veteran at middle linebacker? That position group is giving me flashbacks to the receivers last year with banking on unproven players to step into big roles. — Greg H.

If they don’t address it in the first five rounds of the draft, I could see them doing something similar to last year, with Anthony Barr, where they sign a veteran on a one-year deal during or after training camp.
https://theathletic.com/4385510/2023/04/06/cowboys-additions-nfl-draft-strategy/
Could you talk about what the Cowboys should do if they face a scenario in which no player with a first-round grade is available at pick 26? Based on both Brugler’s Beast and the Sturm 60, there is a decent chance of that possibility with ~20 players with a first-round grade. — David K.

I think it’s unlikely that there will be a player available at 26 that the Cowboys have a first-round grade on. They only had 14 first-round grades last year. Tyler Smith was at the top of their second-round grade list. I wouldn’t be surprised if their board this year only has 16 to 18 first-round grades. That doesn’t mean much to me. Draft the best player available. Drafting Smith last year at 24 is working out just fine.

If the Cowboys don’t use their first-round pick on a tight end, how do you see them addressing (or not addressing) the TE position? If they do use the pick on a TE, who do think is the best one in this class for Dallas? Thanks. — Lenn R.

I think Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer is the most complete TE of the group. That would be my pick if the Cowboys were interested in taking a tight end in the first round. For them, I think it would come down to Mayer or Utah’s Dalton Kincaid. But I also have some doubts about them taking a tight end in the first round. They found Dalton Schultz and Jake Ferguson in the fourth round. Peyton Hendershot and Sean McKeon were signed as undrafted rookie free agents. I could see the Cowboys seeing this deep tight end class as an opportunity to still get a starting caliber player in the second or third round. Some of those options could be Tucker Kraft from South Dakota State, Sam LaPorta from Iowa or Luke Schoonmaker from Michigan.

How far do you think Dallas would be willing to trade up or back? — Brady L.

I doubt they’d be willing to trade up much higher than 20. A move from 26 to around 20 would likely cost the Cowboys their third-round pick. They’d have to really like a player to do that, and frankly, I just don’t see that happening. I think it’s far more likely that they could trade back. With that being said, I still think they’d like to stay in the first round to get the fifth-year option on the contract. They did something similar in 2013 when they moved back from 18 to 31 and then drafted Travis Frederick at 31 and WR Terrance Williams (Pick 74) with the other pick they got in the deal.
 

boozeman

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I am supportive of a trade down in the first. But there has to be a plum we don’t want that somebody else does. It will obviously depend on how the draft rolls out. Hooker is a wildcard that someone might make a move for if he is there are 26.
 

Chocolate Lab

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Or maybe we should take Hooker if he's there at 26... :tippytoe
 

Chocolate Lab

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Okay, but Dak doesn't have much longer before we're looking for one. And you usually don't get a chance at a good one unless you have another 2015 kind of year, which nobody wants.

Actually, I'm sure it's moot because I think he'll go before 26. Probably well before.
 

Cotton

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Okay, but Dak doesn't have much longer before we're looking for one. And you usually don't get a chance at a good one unless you have another 2015 kind of year, which nobody wants.

Actually, I'm sure it's moot because I think he'll go before 26. Probably well before.
I understand being prepared for the future and developing a QB but I’m not to the point I’m ready to use a 1st on one.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I understand being prepared for the future and developing a QB but I’m not to the point I’m ready to use a 1st on one.
Not only that but I don't want to sound like I dislike Hooker because I don't. I actually very much like the guy. But he doesn't scream rare opportunity that I just have to jump on at 26. This isn't an Aaron Rodgers falling in the draft situation. If that were to happen talk to me.
 

ravidubey

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I've been too focused on specific positions this offseason.

The Draft should always be about acquiring talent, first and foremost.

It's a deep draft... we need to consistently draft BPA more than ever.

Much as I'd love to see us get that powerful DT...
 

Cowboysrock55

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I've been too focused on specific positions this offseason.

The Draft should always be about acquiring talent, first and foremost.

It's a deep draft... we need to consistently draft BPA more than ever.

Much as I'd love to see us get that powerful DT...
This is true. We have plugged immediate needs for a reason. But position does matter. Not all positions are the same regardless of need.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Just draft someone in the 2nd who doesn't have a slew of red flags.
Yeah I mean Diggs was one of the best second round picks we have had in a very long time. They just took him because he was the best player left. They didn't worry about trying to get any other bargain except, hey this is the best player. Stop with the well, if he wasn't a troubled player or injured he would have been a first round player stuff.

And yet Sam Williams was sort of a red flag guy and I think he looked really good last year. So I also say, just do your homework. Not all red flags are the same. Lazy is what we really need to avoid.
 

Simpleton

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The problem is that they generally tend to start earmarking needs in the 2nd/3rd as opposed to being more open to going BPA in the 1st.

We were looking hard at CB's in the first in 2020, Lamb fell, so we went CB in the 2nd. Joseph was another supposed need pick because we missed on Surtain/Horn in the first and Williams was also a need pick to replace Gregory who they locked in on weeks in advance.

Sometimes it works but I kind of hate the mentality, especially last year when the need-based picks were more obvious than usual. I'm hoping the strength of the roster this year makes them more open-minded.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Sometimes it works but I kind of hate the mentality, especially last year when the need-based picks were more obvious than usual. I'm hoping the strength of the roster this year makes them more open-minded.
Yeah even with Ferg in the fourth. We were targeting a TE there. We had 4 guys and Ferg was the fourth of those guys so we took him. No real consideration for any other position. Yes it worked out. But we did it as a need.
 

ravidubey

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This is true. We have plugged immediate needs for a reason. But position does matter. Not all positions are the same regardless of need.
Heck yeah… just need to be in the ballpark of best value

Ignoring value can lead to suffering. Look at 2009 where we’ve got a nearly burnt out Marion Barber signed to a bad deal and injury prone Felix Jones on his rookie contract so in the 2nd round we ignore the best player on our board (by far) in Shady McCoy.

Jerry then starts trading down like you wouldn’t believe in an already weak draft looking for special teamers. We came away from that draft with no viable starters.

And of course McCoy caused us endless pain for years while Jones and Barber did nothing the rest of their careers.
 
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